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Reality Check

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Reality Check

Old 3rd May 2020, 21:00
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Reality Check

After nearly 40 years of flying - and thinking I was doing a worthwhile, productive job, I am now not so sure I wasnít riding a bubble.
In these days of foregoing many things, including travel, there is a new definition of what is vital.
There is a lot that people can do without.
So I will rumour - that the good times are passed, that the Max problem will disappear into insignificance, that government money given to the airlines was wasted money and that Airbus as well as Boeing are hanging by a thread.
As for the rest of us, learning the violin might be a good option.
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Old 3rd May 2020, 22:47
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Let's be honest.

Lockdown is hell. Particularly If you have small children. I would crawl over hot coals to catch a flight out of here right now to somewhere warm, with a pool, a view and bottomless margaritas.

I'd wager a good number of my countrymen and women feel similarly.

That alone should give us cause for optimism.
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Old 3rd May 2020, 23:20
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Originally Posted by Northern Monkey View Post
Let's be honest.

Lockdown is hell. Particularly If you have small children. I would crawl over hot coals to catch a flight out of here right now to somewhere warm, with a pool, a view and bottomless margaritas.

I'd wager a good number of my countrymen and women feel similarly.

That alone should give us cause for optimism.
Absolutely spot on! As soon as we can, Iíll be booking a holiday somewhere with white sand and palm trees so Iíll definitely need the services of a few pilots.
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Old 3rd May 2020, 23:41
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Originally Posted by Northern Monkey View Post
Let's be honest.

Lockdown is hell. Particularly If you have small children. I would crawl over hot coals to catch a flight out of here right now to somewhere warm, with a pool, a view and bottomless margaritas.

I'd wager a good number of my countrymen and women feel similarly.

That alone should give us cause for optimism.
Just follow this lady's recommendation:
(yes, it is just a joke)
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Old 4th May 2020, 00:00
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Originally Posted by Northern Monkey View Post
Let's be honest.

Lockdown is hell. Particularly If you have small children. I would crawl over hot coals to catch a flight out of here right now to somewhere warm, with a pool, a view and bottomless margaritas.

I'd wager a good number of my countrymen and women feel similarly.

That alone should give us cause for optimism.
...as long as we can keep the weans safe...👍
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Old 4th May 2020, 00:47
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
Absolutely spot on! As soon as we can, Iíll be booking a holiday somewhere with white sand and palm trees so Iíll definitely need the services of a few pilots.
I just need shoes to walk to the beach.
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Old 4th May 2020, 07:03
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Absolutely

Originally Posted by Northern Monkey View Post
Let's be honest.

Lockdown is hell. Particularly If you have small children. I would crawl over hot coals to catch a flight out of here right now to somewhere warm, with a pool, a view and bottomless margaritas.

I'd wager a good number of my countrymen and women feel similarly.

That alone should give us cause for optimism.

Totally agree. As the recovery is likely to be slow and gradual , and a large number wonít want to fly, there will still be a relatively large number who will want to/have to. Iím already looking at where to take the family!
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Old 4th May 2020, 08:01
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I suspect that a lot more folks will be taking "stay-cations" for at least the next couple of years. The days of low-cost air travel will take a fair old while to come back.
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Old 4th May 2020, 08:22
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Staycations are not a cheap option. All these foreign resorts will be offering mega deals to lure people back and keep the local economy going. How are folk going to get there? People have been used to jetting around Europe now since the 90s and there will always be a market for foreign travel. How big that market will be and who is going to be servicing it is a question I can't answer.
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Old 4th May 2020, 08:33
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Originally Posted by autothrottle View Post
Totally agree. As the recovery is likely to be slow and gradual , and a large number wonít want to fly, there will still be a relatively large number who will want to/have to. Iím already looking at where to take the family!
The question is, will these people be able to afford this? Study that Depression of the 1920s-30s a bit more, it ain't pretty.
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:08
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I think the difference between now and previous economic difficulties is that this one is a secondary effect of deliberate government action (not to say that there aren’t some underlying problems with the system). That means we are in uncharted territory, so when there is a consensus around lifting some of the restrictions, there is a large spectrum of outcomes. At certain stages we will/won’t have vaccines, cures, etc. Track & trace may keep outbreaks to a minimum, as some parts of the world seem to have done.

If travelling on an aeroplane means wearing an NBC suit followed by 14 days quarantine at the other end, then I don’t think many will take it up. If the incidence of the disease is reduced to local flare-ups then, like post-9/11, I can see people returning to internal/external travel, especially is the price is right and it can be seen you don’t take a flight then immediately drop dead afterwards.

There is so much that will and won’t happen in the next six months that isn’t really susceptible to accurate prediction, that, initially, we have no choice but to take it as it comes...
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:08
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This is not going to be a depression, most economists are saying a beturn to previous levels of activity within 2-4 years. So yes a recession, but most economies will likely be growing next year.
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:24
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..as long as we can keep the weans safe...👍
Quite agree, leave them at home.
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:30
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion View Post
This is not going to be a depression, most economists are saying a beturn to previous levels of activity within 2-4 years. So yes a recession, but most economies will likely be growing next year.
We shall have to wait and see. The truth is a lot of economists have been proven to not have much of a clue. I tend to trust this guy a bit more, even if it makes for depressing reading: https://www.theguardian.com/business...evitable-covid
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:42
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People's mindsets will not change radically, I think. Who in their right mind will decide to never travel again, be it for holidays, visiting friends and relatives, spending time at second homes, studying abroad, business or volunteering? Everyone has already gone nuts from staying at home and many will prefer no vacation at all as compared to a staycation. Neither will governments seal off all borders forever as far too great a chunk of the economy depends on people movement for various reasons. Airlines don't benefit only the average Joe going for his one-week holiday in Malaga once a year. There's a huge number of people whose business is dependent on freedom of movement and they won't be allowed to starve just like that.

There will always be predictions of doom and gloom around such major events. Back in 2008 there were forecasts about money disappearing and people going back to natural economy, i.e. trading a chicken for a bag of potatoes. Not to mention how many times the fate of business travel appeared to be sealed with e-signatures, teleconferencing and all sorts of other IT. The truth is that no amount of Skype calls can substitute for real-life networking and no amount of time spent at Google Street View can substitute for vising the actual place. So, people will want to move around. And, when there's demand - there will inevitably be supply. Just keep your patience for two or three years and we'll pick up from where we've left.
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:52
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I think most of us that can, would want to be off somewhere hot sunny, for beaches and warm seas..BUT what holds me and many others back is lack of Travel Insurance cover for this virus.Especially as you get older. Although I accept some of the younger ones might want to `chance it`..Sure those draconian terms will be revisited and changed in due course but until they are, they are going to be a big brake. I just hope the airlines and the jobs that go with it can hang on at least 12 months. Then things will be clearer and hopefully more optimistic. I wish everyone the best of luck..
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:58
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I get travel insurance as part of a deal with with my credit card. I contacted them today - somewhat tongue in cheek - to ask whether they would cover for further outbreaks of Covid and surprisingly, they do!

Regarding holidays, I’m sure that there will be a lot of discounting and offers in the next few months as incentives to lure tourists back. Greece, Italy and Spain are clearly already feeling the pinch and looking at some long haul deals online, upmarket resorts in the Indian Ocean are offering 30% off.
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Old 4th May 2020, 10:28
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This is purely anecdotal but a survey of my peers says that pretty much all of them are going to have a **** off holiday in one of their favourite places once restrictions allow. This is not to say that this translates in any shape or form to the wider population but I think there is definitely pent up demand...
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Old 4th May 2020, 10:40
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
I get travel insurance as part of a deal with with my credit card. I contacted them today - somewhat tongue in cheek - to ask whether they would cover for further outbreaks of Covid and surprisingly, they do!

Regarding holidays, I’m sure that there will be a lot of discounting and offers in the next few months as incentives to lure tourists back. Greece, Italy and Spain are clearly already feeling the pinch and looking at some long haul deals online, upmarket resorts in the Indian Ocean are offering 30% off.
Chances are that insurance only covers you for your medical bills for getting sick - not cost incurred by you for your trips, transfers, accommodation, activities and other being cancelled.

https://www.choice.com.au/travel/mon...rance-pandemic

Did you actually ask them what they cover in such an event and what they DO NOT cover?
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Old 4th May 2020, 11:32
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Originally Posted by autothrottle View Post
Totally agree. As the recovery is likely to be slow and gradual , and a large number wonít want to fly, there will still be a relatively large number who will want to/have to. Iím already looking at where to take the family!
Also consider that many people will have just postponed, rather than cancelled their holidays. There's actually going to be some pent-up demand in the system.
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