Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

The Great Depression

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

The Great Depression

Old 4th May 2020, 07:41
  #81 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Southwold
Age: 68
Posts: 0
This is going to end up very serious. I was discussing with Mrs EM yesterday the subject of house prices. Her mother died a few weeks back and they will be selling her house at some point. Of course the upside is that housing could become more affordable but in the shirt to medium term I can see masses of potential buyers failing to meet the lending criteria especially where double incomes have now reduced to one. I have told her to market it at a discount as soon as lockdown ends, as the funds are going to be split six ways it won't make a massive difference to them individually. I just have a feeling that this time next year the market could look very different indeed.
Effluent Man is offline  
Old 4th May 2020, 08:55
  #82 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: There and here
Posts: 2,000
I just have a feeling that this time next year the market could look very different indeed.
It's hard to see how it won't be changed from before lockdown. The government will attempt to do all it can to mop up the debt spillages with printing debt for the great-grandchildren to deal with, but the appetite for more printing will be met with resistance so soon after the myriad of promises to pay for furloughs for millions as well as all the other supports to keep the train on the tracks. Oh well, it was going to happen sometime. There used to be economic cycles, there hasn't seemed to be one since the end of the 90's, apart from that blip in 2008 when the losses were socialised.
SpringHeeledJack is offline  
Old 4th May 2020, 09:07
  #83 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Planet no. 3
Posts: 101
Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
It's hard to see how it won't be changed from before lockdown. The government will attempt to do all it can to mop up the debt spillages with printing debt for the great-grandchildren to deal with, but the appetite for more printing will be met with resistance so soon after the myriad of promises to pay for furloughs for millions as well as all the other supports to keep the train on the tracks. Oh well, it was going to happen sometime. There used to be economic cycles, there hasn't seemed to be one since the end of the 90's, apart from that blip in 2008 when the losses were socialised.
The point is, this isn't just another business cycle. It is very much an organic crisis of capitalism -- a downward spiral.
vlieger is online now  
Old 4th May 2020, 09:35
  #84 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Southwold
Age: 68
Posts: 0
It's going to be very interesting to see a Tory administration tackle this. Comparisons between rocks and hard places come to mind. In the end it could come down to a choice between taking money from the wealthy to stem a rising tide of dissatisfaction amongst those who " lent" their votes to put Bozza in government. I think that this may turn nasty from one direction or another. Clearly the 2008/9 crisis is small beer by comparison.
Effluent Man is offline  
Old 4th May 2020, 09:39
  #85 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 883
All the changes being discussed are inevitably going to have an impact on productivity and therefore the viability of many businesses.

Its astounding how quickly a modern capitalist economy can unravel.
dead_pan is offline  
Old 4th May 2020, 10:16
  #86 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,715
Well, there you are, solid proof that western civilisation as we know it is coming to an end - ITV has announced this year's series of Love island has been cancelled......

Never watched it, but it must be important as Adam Boulton interrupted his Sky TV programme to announce it.......

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbi...and-cancelled/
ORAC is offline  
Old 4th May 2020, 10:55
  #87 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 883
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Well, there you are, solid proof that western civilisation as we know it is coming to an end - ITV has announced this year's series of Love island has been cancelled......

Never watched it, but it must be important as Adam Boulton interrupted his Sky TV programme to announce it.......

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbi...and-cancelled/
That's a shame. I was looking forward to Geordie announcer saying something like "Chantelle has contracted Coronavirus and is self-isolating in Casa Amor. After the break we'll find out who - if anyone - she hasn't been in intimate contact with over the past week!"
dead_pan is offline  
Old 5th May 2020, 16:39
  #88 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Москва/Ташкент
Age: 50
Posts: 829
According to the Telegraph today over 50% of UK population is now being paid directly by the government (some who may be Pensioners or unemployed and therefore already on state benefits).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ow-paid-state/

Recovery from that will take many years surely?

UBI would have been far more sensible, and possibly cheaper in the long run, but Tories have never done equality, it would render them irrelevant.
flash8 is offline  
Old 5th May 2020, 17:56
  #89 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Planet no. 3
Posts: 101
That's an astonishing figure. Once the furlough payments dry up, we'll have mass unemployment.
vlieger is online now  
Old 5th May 2020, 22:30
  #90 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: London
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by flash8 View Post

UBI would have been far more sensible, and possibly cheaper in the long run, but Tories have never done equality, it would render them irrelevant.

Too many people would have lost out from a UBI - no politician wants to take that flak
cashash is offline  
Old 6th May 2020, 06:40
  #91 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,715
Forget 10%, other estimates say around 30%........

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i...kout-9sz2snhg5


Coronavirus: Italian workers swap lockdown for lockout

Italy’s efforts to breathe life into its crippled economy have been dealt a blow with the discovery that less than half the workers allowed to return to work on Monday actually got there.

Of the 4.4 million people permitted to resume their jobs this week as the country’s coronavirus contagion slows, fewer than two million were taken back by employers, Rocco Palombella, the head of Italian union UILM, said. “People didn’t go back because companies cannot start full production when the market has collapsed,” he said.......

On Monday, as new cases slowed, a first significant relaxation of the lockdown was allowed. Of the 4.4 million people allowed back to work, about 60 per cent work in manufacturing, 15 per cent in construction and the rest in related commercial activity.

“The problem is that only 30 per cent of factories reopened with a full contingent of staff,” Mr Palombella said. “Fiat Chrysler reopened its Mirafiori plant but took back only 1,000 of 5,000 staff. At the ILVA steel works in Taranto [in southern Italy], 3,000 of 8,200 staff are back. That’s why there was no crush on commuter trains and buses on Monday.”

Mr Palombella said that the majority of those who did not go to work yesterday were still on furlough. “That’s €935 a month pay, enough for rent or a mortgage but nothing for spending, which will further drag the economy down,” he said.

Italy’s GDP is expected to fall by more than 10 per cent this year — bad news for the 2.7 million Italians still waiting to go back to jobs in retail, tourism and services.......
ORAC is offline  
Old 6th May 2020, 14:03
  #92 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: There and here
Posts: 2,000
The economic near-future is looking a bit bleak it has to be said, but as the past has shown, these things don't always go in a direct line downwards (or upwards) and can have results less catastrophic than predicted. There won't be a clear picture for some months when the 'new normal' will be in motion. Things will be different, more than that is just guesswork at this point.
SpringHeeledJack is offline  
Old 6th May 2020, 14:26
  #93 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 67
Posts: 390
Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
The economic near-future is looking a bit bleak it has to be said, but as the past has shown, these things don't always go in a direct line downwards (or upwards) and can have results less catastrophic than predicted. There won't be a clear picture for some months when the 'new normal' will be in motion. Things will be different, more than that is just guesswork at this point.
As an example of the way this isn't always having a negative impact, I tried to call our local sawmill a few times this morning, to buy some oak beams. Took me a handful of tries to get through, and when I did they told me that they were "going manic" with orders, and were pulling 15 hour days to try and get timber out the door. For some reason, they're seeing far more business than usual. Their business is entirely rough sawn timber, mainly for landscapers, farmers etc, so it's not obvious just why the lock down has had this impact on their business.

Much the same is true for our local farm shops, who have been expanding their opening hours and ranges of produce, and for the local milk delivery service, that's also seen a big expansion in demand.
VP959 is offline  
Old 7th May 2020, 06:25
  #94 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,715
How the lockdown will affect the local economy in my home town.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18431207.coronavirus-brighton-suffer-losses-due-lack-events

/
BRIGHTON and Hove is preparing to be battered by nine-figure losses after the coronavirus outbreak shut down its thriving tourism and eventsindustries. More than a third of jobs in the city have been identified as vulnerable as a result of the effects of the UK lockdown, a report from Brighton and HoveCity Council revealed.

Brighton will have a silent summer with all major events, including Pride, Brighton Festival and Fringe, falling by the wayside as authorities sought to stop the spread of coronavirus. The council report, titled Covid-19 Impact On The Visitor And Events Economy, warned “35 per cent of jobs in the city are in sectors classed as affected” while another 35 per cent are “either vulnerable or very vulnerable”........
ORAC is offline  
Old 7th May 2020, 15:28
  #95 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: There and here
Posts: 2,000
/BRIGHTON and Hove is preparing to be battered by nine-figure losses after the coronavirus outbreak shut down its thriving tourism and eventsindustries. More than a third of jobs in the city have been identified as vulnerable as a result of the effects of the UK lockdown, a report from Brighton and HoveCity Council revealed.
Not to mention all the Gatwick jobs currently filled with residents of both Brighton and surrounding area.
SpringHeeledJack is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2020, 12:42
  #96 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,715
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52990612

Thousands of UK jobs go in sweeping retail closures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52991913

Coronavirus: UK economy could be worst hit among leading nations, says OECD

OECD Economic Outlook, June 2020

UK -11.5%, France -11.4%, Italy -11.3%. Positions reverse if there is a second wave.

Euro area as a whole is -9.1%, but that's mainly propped up by Germany.

Unemployment rate and national debt tables look far better for the UK than the rest of Europe.

I was surprised at the lower rates forecast for the southern flank (e.g. Greece -8%), but doing some research they didn't have as much room to fall, still being depressed from the Euro crisis, and the OECD expects tourism to bounce back strongly in the second half of the year. Which is why a second wave will have a much worse effect on their prospects.
ORAC is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2020, 12:50
  #97 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Planet no. 3
Posts: 101
Worth reading some Financial Times articles as well, with the comments from certain traders below (gamblers). There is a huge discrepancy between the stock market and the "real" economy. The whole thing will end in tears and we are about to hit a crisis unlike any other the capitalist system has seen.
vlieger is online now  
Old 10th Jun 2020, 12:56
  #98 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 883
I'm not sure people across the globe will stand for another 10 years+ of austerity or whatever. The signs are already there, given events over the last week or two.

In the UK we've been lulled into a false sense of security with the furlough scheme etc.
dead_pan is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2020, 14:15
  #99 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,915
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52990612

Thousands of UK jobs go in sweeping retail closures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52991913

Coronavirus: UK economy could be worst hit among leading nations, says OECD

OECD Economic Outlook, June 2020

UK -11.5%, France -11.4%, Italy -11.3%. Positions reverse if there is a second wave.

Euro area as a whole is -9.1%, but that's mainly propped up by Germany.

Unemployment rate and national debt tables look far better for the UK than the rest of Europe.

I was surprised at the lower rates forecast for the southern flank (e.g. Greece -8%), but doing some research they didn't have as much room to fall, still being depressed from the Euro crisis, and the OECD expects tourism to bounce back strongly in the second half of the year. Which is why a second wave will have a much worse effect on their prospects.
Who is doing the "selective reporting", the BBC who reported that the UK will be worst hit of the major economies, or you, seeming to suggest that the UK and France would be equally badly hit? I can see from the graph in the BBC report the UK is worst off along with France and the perennial European basket case, Italy in the event of the almost inevitable 2nd wave of infections.

Whilst the BBC radio report I heard did say that the problem for the UK is very much effected by our reliance upon the services sector, particularly tourism but, I wonder, how much has the OECD built in for a no deal exit from transition for the UK.
ATNotts is offline  
Old 10th Jun 2020, 15:35
  #100 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,715
Who is doing the "selective reporting", the BBC who reported that the UK will be worst hit of the major economies, or you, seeming to suggest that the UK and France would be equally badly hit?
I am quoting from the BBC report itself. The figures of 11.5%, 11.4% and 11.3% are from the OECD, and within the bounds of accuracy in any such report, are effectively identical. With regards to the second wave scenario, the BBC report states:

”The OECD looked at two scenarios for how the pandemic might unfold, depending on whether there is a second wave of contagion or not before the end of this year. If that does happen, two countries - France and Spain - would suffer even deeper declines in economic activity than the UK this year.“......







ORAC is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.