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The Great Depression

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The Great Depression

Old 4th May 2020, 07:41
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This is going to end up very serious. I was discussing with Mrs EM yesterday the subject of house prices. Her mother died a few weeks back and they will be selling her house at some point. Of course the upside is that housing could become more affordable but in the shirt to medium term I can see masses of potential buyers failing to meet the lending criteria especially where double incomes have now reduced to one. I have told her to market it at a discount as soon as lockdown ends, as the funds are going to be split six ways it won't make a massive difference to them individually. I just have a feeling that this time next year the market could look very different indeed.
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Old 4th May 2020, 08:55
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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I just have a feeling that this time next year the market could look very different indeed.
It's hard to see how it won't be changed from before lockdown. The government will attempt to do all it can to mop up the debt spillages with printing debt for the great-grandchildren to deal with, but the appetite for more printing will be met with resistance so soon after the myriad of promises to pay for furloughs for millions as well as all the other supports to keep the train on the tracks. Oh well, it was going to happen sometime. There used to be economic cycles, there hasn't seemed to be one since the end of the 90's, apart from that blip in 2008 when the losses were socialised.
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:07
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
It's hard to see how it won't be changed from before lockdown. The government will attempt to do all it can to mop up the debt spillages with printing debt for the great-grandchildren to deal with, but the appetite for more printing will be met with resistance so soon after the myriad of promises to pay for furloughs for millions as well as all the other supports to keep the train on the tracks. Oh well, it was going to happen sometime. There used to be economic cycles, there hasn't seemed to be one since the end of the 90's, apart from that blip in 2008 when the losses were socialised.
The point is, this isn't just another business cycle. It is very much an organic crisis of capitalism -- a downward spiral.
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:35
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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It's going to be very interesting to see a Tory administration tackle this. Comparisons between rocks and hard places come to mind. In the end it could come down to a choice between taking money from the wealthy to stem a rising tide of dissatisfaction amongst those who " lent" their votes to put Bozza in government. I think that this may turn nasty from one direction or another. Clearly the 2008/9 crisis is small beer by comparison.
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Old 4th May 2020, 09:39
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All the changes being discussed are inevitably going to have an impact on productivity and therefore the viability of many businesses.

Its astounding how quickly a modern capitalist economy can unravel.
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Old 4th May 2020, 10:16
  #86 (permalink)  
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Well, there you are, solid proof that western civilisation as we know it is coming to an end - ITV has announced this year's series of Love island has been cancelled......

Never watched it, but it must be important as Adam Boulton interrupted his Sky TV programme to announce it.......

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbi...and-cancelled/
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Old 4th May 2020, 10:55
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Well, there you are, solid proof that western civilisation as we know it is coming to an end - ITV has announced this year's series of Love island has been cancelled......

Never watched it, but it must be important as Adam Boulton interrupted his Sky TV programme to announce it.......

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbi...and-cancelled/
That's a shame. I was looking forward to Geordie announcer saying something like "Chantelle has contracted Coronavirus and is self-isolating in Casa Amor. After the break we'll find out who - if anyone - she hasn't been in intimate contact with over the past week!"
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Old 5th May 2020, 16:39
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According to the Telegraph today over 50% of UK population is now being paid directly by the government (some who may be Pensioners or unemployed and therefore already on state benefits).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ow-paid-state/

Recovery from that will take many years surely?

UBI would have been far more sensible, and possibly cheaper in the long run, but Tories have never done equality, it would render them irrelevant.
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Old 5th May 2020, 17:56
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That's an astonishing figure. Once the furlough payments dry up, we'll have mass unemployment.
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Old 5th May 2020, 22:30
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post

UBI would have been far more sensible, and possibly cheaper in the long run, but Tories have never done equality, it would render them irrelevant.

Too many people would have lost out from a UBI - no politician wants to take that flak
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Old 6th May 2020, 06:40
  #91 (permalink)  
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Forget 10%, other estimates say around 30%........

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i...kout-9sz2snhg5


Coronavirus: Italian workers swap lockdown for lockout

Italy’s efforts to breathe life into its crippled economy have been dealt a blow with the discovery that less than half the workers allowed to return to work on Monday actually got there.

Of the 4.4 million people permitted to resume their jobs this week as the country’s coronavirus contagion slows, fewer than two million were taken back by employers, Rocco Palombella, the head of Italian union UILM, said. “People didn’t go back because companies cannot start full production when the market has collapsed,” he said.......

On Monday, as new cases slowed, a first significant relaxation of the lockdown was allowed. Of the 4.4 million people allowed back to work, about 60 per cent work in manufacturing, 15 per cent in construction and the rest in related commercial activity.

“The problem is that only 30 per cent of factories reopened with a full contingent of staff,” Mr Palombella said. “Fiat Chrysler reopened its Mirafiori plant but took back only 1,000 of 5,000 staff. At the ILVA steel works in Taranto [in southern Italy], 3,000 of 8,200 staff are back. That’s why there was no crush on commuter trains and buses on Monday.”

Mr Palombella said that the majority of those who did not go to work yesterday were still on furlough. “That’s €935 a month pay, enough for rent or a mortgage but nothing for spending, which will further drag the economy down,” he said.

Italy’s GDP is expected to fall by more than 10 per cent this year — bad news for the 2.7 million Italians still waiting to go back to jobs in retail, tourism and services.......
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Old 6th May 2020, 14:03
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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The economic near-future is looking a bit bleak it has to be said, but as the past has shown, these things don't always go in a direct line downwards (or upwards) and can have results less catastrophic than predicted. There won't be a clear picture for some months when the 'new normal' will be in motion. Things will be different, more than that is just guesswork at this point.
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Old 6th May 2020, 14:26
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
The economic near-future is looking a bit bleak it has to be said, but as the past has shown, these things don't always go in a direct line downwards (or upwards) and can have results less catastrophic than predicted. There won't be a clear picture for some months when the 'new normal' will be in motion. Things will be different, more than that is just guesswork at this point.
As an example of the way this isn't always having a negative impact, I tried to call our local sawmill a few times this morning, to buy some oak beams. Took me a handful of tries to get through, and when I did they told me that they were "going manic" with orders, and were pulling 15 hour days to try and get timber out the door. For some reason, they're seeing far more business than usual. Their business is entirely rough sawn timber, mainly for landscapers, farmers etc, so it's not obvious just why the lock down has had this impact on their business.

Much the same is true for our local farm shops, who have been expanding their opening hours and ranges of produce, and for the local milk delivery service, that's also seen a big expansion in demand.
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Old 7th May 2020, 06:25
  #94 (permalink)  
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How the lockdown will affect the local economy in my home town.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18431207.coronavirus-brighton-suffer-losses-due-lack-events

/
BRIGHTON and Hove is preparing to be battered by nine-figure losses after the coronavirus outbreak shut down its thriving tourism and eventsindustries. More than a third of jobs in the city have been identified as vulnerable as a result of the effects of the UK lockdown, a report from Brighton and HoveCity Council revealed.

Brighton will have a silent summer with all major events, including Pride, Brighton Festival and Fringe, falling by the wayside as authorities sought to stop the spread of coronavirus. The council report, titled Covid-19 Impact On The Visitor And Events Economy, warned “35 per cent of jobs in the city are in sectors classed as affected” while another 35 per cent are “either vulnerable or very vulnerable”........
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Old 7th May 2020, 15:28
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/BRIGHTON and Hove is preparing to be battered by nine-figure losses after the coronavirus outbreak shut down its thriving tourism and eventsindustries. More than a third of jobs in the city have been identified as vulnerable as a result of the effects of the UK lockdown, a report from Brighton and HoveCity Council revealed.
Not to mention all the Gatwick jobs currently filled with residents of both Brighton and surrounding area.
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