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The Great Depression

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The Great Depression

Old 4th Apr 2020, 18:40
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Game over man
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Old 4th Apr 2020, 20:35
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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I'm broadly in agreement with V3m. I was in the Motor Trade for forty odd years and I dread to think how that sector is going to come out of this. Disposal auctions of ex fleet cars are at a halt and as leasing amounts to around a million vehicles per annum I guess they are piling up at around 20,000 a week. Add to this that many lease contracts will presumably go unpaid due to lack of company revenues and I can see trouble ahead. On the plus side Mrs EM's car is due for replacement and I think that I might save a few bob there...every cloud etc.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 01:05
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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re: Government-ordered economic shutdown--The Virus Depression

On March 14, PPRuNe member cashash posted this letter from the Telegraph:

"SIR – As a 90-year-old doctor who qualified in 1953, I have been reflecting on how we would have reacted to a coronavirus epidemic in those days. The answer is not at all, for three main reasons.

The Covid-19 virus could not have been identified rapidly enough, if at all. Most cases would have been too mild to attract attention in this season of coughs and sneezes. And the small proportion of deaths among elderly people with chronic respiratory disease would have remained much as usual for the time of year.

It follows that there would have been no alarm or countermeasures. International trade and travel would have carried on as usual. World stock markets would not have collapsed. And governments would not have needed to get involved.

As it is today, we know too much about the coronavirus for our own good, but almost nothing about treating its victims or preventing its spread.

Dr George Birdwood
Shipton Moyne, Gloucestershire"

Last edited by dogsridewith; 5th Apr 2020 at 14:25. Reason: source correction
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 06:38
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Well dogsridewith

The Covid-19 virus could not have been identified rapidly enough, if at all. Most cases would have been too mild to attract attention in this season of coughs and sneezes. And the small proportion of deaths among elderly people with chronic respiratory disease would have remained much as usual for the time of year.


We are supposed to be social distancing not reality distancing
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 13:22
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dogsridewith View Post
A new PPRuNe member's first post on or shortly before March 14:

Point of order - I dont think he is a PPRuNe member - that was a letter in the Telegraph.
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Old 5th Apr 2020, 14:26
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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corrected. thanks.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 17:14
  #47 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ssion-says-who

Coronavirus putting world on track for new Great Depression, says WTO

International trade body predicts commerce could shrink up to 32% and warns against 30s-style protectionism
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 19:44
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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In other words we are in a hole. Maybe it's time that the UK stopped digging. If there was anything that would provide the final nudge to get The Scots over the Independence line it's a NoDeal Brexit now.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 19:50
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
If there was anything that would provide the final nudge to get The Scots over the Independence line it's a NoDeal Brexit now.
I think the current oil price might give the more rational among them some very serious food for thought.
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Old 8th Apr 2020, 20:11
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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The Scots over the Independence line
I hope not! I'm paying enough extra income tax living in Scotland at the moment, thank you.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 06:31
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Then just wait until this finishes, you are most likely to be personally supporting at least one member of the unemployed. Assuming that is you don't become one yourself. Economically speaking there isn't going to be a good outcome to this.
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Old 9th Apr 2020, 06:33
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kev Agamemnon View Post
I think the current oil price might give the more rational among them some very serious food for thought.
Are you a Hindu? You clearly believe in multiple reincarnation. Best not use Norfolk next time, bit of a giveaway old bean.
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 13:02
  #53 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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https://www.theguardian.com/business...onomy-says-imf

'Great Lockdown' to rival Great Depression with 3% hit to global economy, says IMF

https://www.theguardian.com/business...sses-warns-obr

UK economy could shrink by 35% with 2m job losses, warns OBR
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Old 14th Apr 2020, 14:13
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Just the time to negotiate a great NoDeal exit from the EU 35+9 = 44!
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 12:16
  #55 (permalink)  
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Personally, as someone who has a reasonable, definitely not large sum tied up in a money purchase pension pot that I should be accessing in 2-3 years time, I am working on the assumption that once this crisis has subsided there will be diddlysquat left to finance my old age, so I am going to be very much more reliant on the UK's state pension provision.
That's pretty much what happened to me in the last crunch. So I carried on working. Will work until the grave claims me. Meanwhile, the State Pension increases by roughly 10% per year for each year that I don't claim it. At some point I'll be able to slow down to part time working and claim the state pension to make up any shortfall. Such is life - I have a lovely wife and family, including several fantastic and enthusiastic grandchildren and a couple of dogs. Life is good - I only need money for food and paying my council tax. .
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 12:32
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kev Agamemnon View Post
I think the current oil price might give the more rational among them some very serious food for thought.
Since when did 'independence' referenda depend on rational thought?
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 12:48
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cashash View Post
We seem to be intent on sacrificing the futures of a whole generation of young people to stop some old people from dying a tad earlier. The average age of the patients who’ve died of coronavirus so far is 79.5 and average life expectancy in the UK is 81.
No western country will accept the death toll of 50 doctors and 20 nurses suffered in Northern Italy in an 8 week period.

Mjb
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 15:36
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Blacksheep.

I did the calculations on deferring state pension and to me it looked like for every year you defer it you would need to live 15 years to get back your loss and more to make a profit?
It was my plan to defer but now I am not so sure at all? One year of deferral would require you live beyond the average age to make it worthwhile.

Or am I missing something?

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Old 15th Apr 2020, 15:55
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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What state pension reduces my personal allowance by the same amount so it is effectively taxed at 100%.
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Old 15th Apr 2020, 15:58
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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FED.. I am not entirely sure of what you are referring to but my plan is to live off savings as much as possible. Even draw down on the house maybe? The State pension is just a small income to pay for food etc? This keeps me out of ALL uk tax??? I hope? There is no private pension.
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