Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

The Great Depression

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

The Great Depression

Old 2nd Apr 2020, 16:38
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Reading, UK
Posts: 11,585
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Coronavirus credit crunch could make 2008 look like 'child's play'
At the risk of stating the increasingly obvious, the relevant comparison isn't with the global financial crisis of 2008, but with what happened in 1930.
DaveReidUK is online now  
Old 2nd Apr 2020, 16:46
  #22 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Isle of Man
Posts: 54
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
At the risk of stating the increasingly obvious, the relevant comparison isn't with the global financial crisis of 2008, but with what happened in 1930.
Why, what happened in 1930?
Islandlad is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2020, 16:49
  #23 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Reading, UK
Posts: 11,585
Originally Posted by Islandlad View Post
Why, what happened in 1930?
See thread title.
DaveReidUK is online now  
Old 2nd Apr 2020, 17:50
  #24 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: London
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
And even if we did all go back to work and accept the consequences, there would still be huge economic disruption. Its not like we'd ignore what was going on around us.
No - but there is a difference between disruption and shutting down vast swathes of the economy. If this goes on for any length of time then when we finally re-open the economy again many companies will have simply ceased to exist and that production will be lost.

For example in WW2 we had massive disruption but the economy was going flat out to produce.
cashash is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2020, 21:17
  #25 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Isle of Man
Posts: 54
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
See thread title.
In 1929 Wall Street crashed for reasons that are nothing like the present circumstances. There have been dozens of market collapses and economic down turns for various reasons, but none of them like this. I'm still searching for anything which resembles these circumstances. The closest model is the Zimbabwean money supply restriction but the underlying causes and pre/post health of the economy are completely different.
Islandlad is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2020, 21:24
  #26 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Isle of Man
Posts: 54
Originally Posted by cashash View Post
For example in WW2 we had massive disruption but the economy was going flat out to produce.
WW2 was not a disruption. It was the drive to produce for the war effort that finally lifted the US economy out of the 1929 depression. Even with the New Deal and 'Pump Priming' in the 1930s the US economy was essentially on tick over until late 1943. That in turn led to the boom which dipped in 1946/7, but picked up until 1958.
Islandlad is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2020, 22:22
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: EU
Posts: 395
Originally Posted by Islandlad View Post
WW2 was not a disruption. It was the drive to produce for the war effort that finally lifted the US economy out of the 1929 depression. Even with the New Deal and 'Pump Priming' in the 1930s the US economy was essentially on tick over until late 1943. That in turn led to the boom which dipped in 1946/7, but picked up until 1958.
You really going to leave the Marshall Plan out of that precis?
Torquetalk is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2020, 23:04
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Isle of Man
Posts: 54
Originally Posted by Torquetalk View Post
You really going to leave the Marshall Plan out of that precis?
What?
​​​​​
The Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) was an American initiative passed in 1948 for foreign aid to Western Europe. The United States transferred over $12 billion (equivalent to over $128 billion as of 2020) in economic recovery programs to Western European economies after the end of World War II.

A quick trip to Wiki land gives you that.

How do you manage to get hold of the wrong end of every stick?

Continue with your defence of China. As the news of a 'new' outbreak finally hits the mainstream news stands any ideas of a 'fast' recovery diminishes as the world fails to lock down China.

Back on topic. The US economy is market driven and will be in no fit state to lead the world out of this mess.

Before economic recovery comes the 'clever' return to business as usual. Europe must not/will not follow China. Planned recovery to a medical normal must preceed an economic return to normal.

I can only hope that 'smart people are thinking hard'.
Islandlad is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 16:34
  #29 (permalink)  
Thought police antagonist
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Where I always have been...firmly in the real world
Posts: 945
This article puts the future into perspective and frankly, it's going to be very unpleasant. Global depression never is. .

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ta-coronavirus
Krystal n chips is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 17:51
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: London
Posts: 1
We seem to be intent on sacrificing the futures of a whole generation of young people to stop some old people from dying a tad earlier. The average age of the patients who’ve died of coronavirus so far is 79.5 and average life expectancy in the UK is 81.
cashash is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 18:22
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 0
I can't help but wonder if the social and economic damage we're inflicting on ourselves is justified for a disease which, however unpleasant and infectious, is not an existential threat to humanity.
Kev Agamemnon is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 18:38
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: EU
Posts: 395
Originally Posted by Islandlad View Post
What?
​​​​​
The Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) was an American initiative passed in 1948 for foreign aid to Western Europe. The United States transferred over $12 billion (equivalent to over $128 billion as of 2020) in economic recovery programs to Western European economies after the end of World War II.

A quick trip to Wiki land gives you that.

How do you manage to get hold of the wrong end of every stick?

Continue with your defence of China. As the news of a 'new' outbreak finally hits the mainstream news stands any ideas of a 'fast' recovery diminishes as the world fails to lock down China.

Back on topic. The US economy is market driven and will be in no fit state to lead the world out of this mess.
Bit touchy there islandlad, aren’t we?

All I was alluding to, was that your potted history of the Great Depression and recovery seemed a bit thin without the Marshall Plan. But if you’re really going to make a song and dance of it, your overall summary seems a bit like the cart pushing the horse.

The war did not provide the recovery driver from The Depression as you say. WW2 didn’t happen for the better part of a decade after the Depression and US was well on the road to recovery by then, significantly driven by the Keynesian programmes such as The New Deal. The war may have subsequently led to a massive production rise, but at the cost of disruption to the existing economy. Only state assurance through government contracts to underwrite production made this possible. That involved eyewatering borrowing commitments, which in themselves threaten to stifle growth, not promote it. The genius of The Marshall Plan was to lend money to Europe to rebuild the economies there, and thereby create the markets which the US was then able to export to and trade with. A post-war depression was thereby avoided. The economic growth that followed allowed all of the countries involved to make their debt repayments, which were spread over the better part of a century.

At no point have I defended China. What I have done is to object to pointless China bashing and propaganda by Murdoch “news” media outlets, because it is tedious chain yanking.

Maybe look at that stick again carefully and ask which end you are holding.

Last edited by Torquetalk; 3rd Apr 2020 at 18:53.
Torquetalk is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 19:14
  #33 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Southwold
Age: 68
Posts: 0
Originally Posted by cashash View Post
We seem to be intent on sacrificing the futures of a whole generation of young people to stop some old people from dying a tad earlier. The average age of the patients who’ve died of coronavirus so far is 79.5 and average life expectancy in the UK is 81.
That implies that the life expectancy of a 79.5 y/o is 1.5 years. It isn't. In the UK it's 9 years.
Effluent Man is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 19:44
  #34 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: London
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
That implies that the life expectancy of a 79.5 y/o is 1.5 years. It isn't. In the UK it's 9 years.

Surely all it implies is that Coronavirus shortens the average lifespan by 1.5 years. How much does a worldwide depression shorten lifespans?
cashash is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 19:53
  #35 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Southwold
Age: 68
Posts: 0
Originally Posted by cashash View Post
Surely all it implies is that Coronavirus shortens the average lifespan by 1.5 years. How much does a worldwide depression shorten lifespans?
no, it shortens it by nine years. And depending on other factors a worldwide recession might not shorten lifespans at all. The air seems clearer already.
Effluent Man is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 20:57
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: London
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
no, it shortens it by nine years. And depending on other factors a worldwide recession might not shorten lifespans at all. The air seems clearer already.

Sorry you've lost me if the average lifespan is 81 how does Covid shorten anything by more than 1.5 years on the average joe?.

As for depressions saving lives

"If the coronavirus lockdown leads to a fall in GDP of more than 6.4 per cent more years of life will be lost due to recession than will be gained through beating the virus, a study suggests." Philip Thomas, professor of risk management at Bristol University, said that keeping the economy going in the next year was crucial, otherwise the measures would “do more harm than good”.

Times
cashash is offline  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 21:41
  #37 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 523
Cashash, simple explanation. Say the average life expectancy of a child at birth is 81. Some will die at a few years of age, some will die in their 20s, 30s etc, and some will exceed 100, but the average is 81. However, if the child survives to 79.5, it can expect to live, on average, another 9 years. Again, some will die tomorrow, some, not for another 10 or 15 years, but on average, they will live another 9 years.
Hydromet is online now  
Old 3rd Apr 2020, 22:13
  #38 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: London
Posts: 1
Thanks - think I have it now. I was looking at it if I started off my life with an life expectancy of 81 and died due to Coronavirus at 79.5 then I haven't lost much.
cashash is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2020, 01:46
  #39 (permalink)  
See and avoid
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: USA
Posts: 504
The United States is a "service economy" which relies upon people spending money on non-essentials.

Given that all the "non-essential" businesses are shut down per government order, or voluntary self-isolation, its possible that the majority, or at least a significant number will close down for good.

The 9 million plus people that filed for unemployment benefits in the past two weeks will have to wait a long time before they get a new job.

Restaurants, for example, usually operate on a slim margin, and many will go bankrupt within a year.

Yes, we will all go out to eat eventually, but most small establishments can't wait that long.

Meanwhile, in the US, most people get health insurance via their employer, so if they aren't working, they are probably not covered by health insurance.

And the current administration has no plans to change that situation...
visibility3miles is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2020, 06:30
  #40 (permalink)  
Paid...Persona Grata
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Between BHX and EMA
Age: 74
Posts: 236
Perfectly put, V3M, and it applies to many "first world" countries, UK included.
UniFoxOs is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.