ATNotts

I fear this has more to do with 'operation red meat' than it does with science.

We have been told previously that you can't rely on one week's data, but that is precisely what has been done. Looking at this week there's a pretty solid upward trend in new cases, and that on the back of nearly 10% fewer tests.

It is a gamble, hopefully one that doesn't backfire.

andytug

Pretty clear now that UK Gov has washed its hands of the whole Covid thing and it's every citizen for themselves, as it has been in schools and the NHS from the start.

So if it's all done with, can we have the public inquiry ASAP please?

Ninthace

Just had an email from the local Director of Public Health urging caution in response to the PM's statement. Basically, just because it has stopped raining in London, does not mean it is not still pouring down elsewhere.
Edited highlights:

"While we have seen a reduction in the overall number of people reporting a positive test in the past week, numbers are now stabilising, and we are seeing increased rates in younger children. Case rates are still high and it is important that people understand that this announcement is not one of freedom day, but a reverting back to plan A.

... the booster is lower in some younger age groups, and its imperative that they and everyone who is eligible for their booster jab, comes forward as soon as they can.

Omicron is by no means a mild virus, and the symptoms to those who are unvaccinated or who have underlying health concerns can be extremely serious if not life threatening.

So while the Prime Minister is indicating light towards the end of the tunnel, my advice is that we are not yet out of the woods.

We must stay vigilant and alert to risk that is still around us.

...Wearing face coverings is still an effective and sensible precaution to continue in indoor and crowded spaces, especially with people you dont know.

Regular lateral flow device testing for people with no symptoms is still the best way to identify those carrying the virus. As is taking a PCR test by people showing symptoms.

Keeping indoor spaces ventilated is a sensible precaution to reduce risk.

And staying at home and avoiding others if you have symptoms of the virus or test positive for it, is still the most responsible way to avoid spreading it to others ..."

BWSBoy6

With a U.K. average antibody rate of 97.35% either from vaccination or previous infection - according to the ONS - it doesn’t get much better than that. If you’re not reassured by those stats, you’re never going to be.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...hts/antibodies

Mr Optimistic

The trends are now clear enough. It's all very well espousing caution but it needs to be balanced against the costs to the economy, children's education and the rest.
All the evidence round here is that people are now discounting it and chaffing at any restrictions so no-one is really listening anymore in any case.

'Regular lateral flow device testing for people with no symptoms is still the best way to identify those carrying the virus.'

Well true but so what...to contain the spread of the virus ? You seen the statistics ?

Ancient Observer

"light towards the end of the tunnel, my advice is that we are not yet out of the woods."

There are no handy tunnels near me.

Lots of woods, though.

Can't we teach medics to use English???

annakm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...ily-death-toll


France recorded 464,769 new cases yesterday despite having more stringent controls regarding masks, club and night clubs having been closed since mid December and health passes for cinemas, restaurants and theaters. Possibly Boris’s decision to ease restrictions last summer ( plus a huge vaccination drive ) did increase immunity in the British which has a very comparable population to France?

Mr Optimistic

The pressure on hospitals is the acid test. If the consequences are tolerable by society just accept and endure, like flu. Think it's becoming a bit of a sciver's charter here.

Ninthace

Unfortunately, there is more to it than just antibodies. If it was just antibodies, nearly 98% would be herd immunity. yet we still have nearly 100k cases a day reported which means the actual figure is much higher. They have to be the right kind and while they may mitigate the effects of infection, they do not prevent it. Nor do they prevent transmission.

Ninthace

If you look at the data in UK since August last year, you will see curve remained high and climbed steadily. The bill was paid over a longer period. Boris got lucky that previous Delta infection prevented the worst of omicron, When he lifted restrictions for Delta compared with other countries. he was gambling on the vaccines, he did know omicron was coming so he cannot take the credit.

Krystal n chips

True, the stats do appear to show a downward trend, and yes, at some point, there has to be a relaxation of the rules (apart from those who relaxed the rules to suit themselves and their partying that is) but, surely the sudden and undue haste could have absolutely nothing to do with Boris being desperate to regain his "popularity" given any credibility has long disappeared, not that it ever existed.

Personally, I will be happy to monitor the stats until a significant downward trend emerges and wear a mask in large public spaces such as supermarkets and smaller outlets.

Ninthace

I have a concern about the relaxed mask wearing rules. I thought we were supposed to wear them to protect others, So I go into somewhere with my mask on and Typhoid Tim comes in with his mask off, that makes him safer from me, but what about me?

Ninthace

Cases by date reported
20-01-2022 107,364
19-01-2022 108,069
18-01-2022 94,432
17-01-2022 84,429
16-01-2022 75,041
15-01-2022 81,713
14-01-2022 99,652
13-01-2022 109,133
Are we sure about this fall?

Mr Optimistic

'Boris' is getting a lot of mention here. Again. He can't win. Call it right and ' he's got lucky' and is acting to regain popularity. Can't he just have been right ( acting on medical advice and following the science obv.)
Infections of themselves don't matter, it's the consequences which do.
On mask wearing, yep the message that it is to protect others not you doesn't seem to have got through. I blame Boris.

Ninthace

Only if he had a crystal ball, and the lives he was gambling with were ours.
Have a look at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
Compare France. Spain and UK. Look at the area under the graphs from August 2021 That is the delta wave we were having when they weren't.

Mr Optimistic

Infections of themselves don't matter, it's the consequences which do.
He made a judgement. Like all judgements it was just that, a judgement. He wasn't 'gambling', it was a judgement which took account of the consequences to health, the economy. No one has a crystal ball but sometimes they just get it right. Clearly not a cause for celebration in your eyes.
Infection rates were important when they were the only leading indicator we had ( assuming no crystal balls were available at the time). If hospitalisations aren't threatening to overwhelm us ( which taking our cue from Northern Italy they most certainly were at the outset), infection rates aren't the sine qua non they were.
Need to adapt if the facts have changed which I think they have now.

Krystal n chips

Possibly there's one rather pertinent reason Boris is " getting a lot of mention " ?

In theory, he's responsible for the UK's population in every respect. Thus far, he's failed. in every respect. and certainly with Covid from the onset. His policies, with only a token acknowledgment to medical and scientific professionals, are based on what he perceives as being best for himself...nobody else. As has been mentioned innumerable times, he's a narcissus and needs to be constantly adored.

Infections do matter, they matter a great deal because one infection can lead to complications leading to other forms of infection and hence extra strain being put on already severely compromised medical resources...called the NHS.

Again, I'm happy to reiterate that I will continue to wear a mask until such time as professional analysis points towards a significant reduction in the risk of infection. and ignore the whims of a politician, and his Cabinet, who cannot be trusted in any context. My health is important to me..and I intend to keep it that way by protecting myself and anybody else I encounter by being prudent rather than throwing caution to the wind and blindly believing Gov't "advice"

ATNotts

And the rising number of cases we are now seeing is from a significantly reduced number of tests.

As I suggested above yesterday's announcement was more about saving Johnson's job and public health is secondary to that.

Ninthace

The estimates heard in the days of encouraging testing was the actual figure was between 2 and 3 times higher, Given the government is trying to discourage(supress) testing with an "it's all over" and "no need to isolate" message, the amplification factor is not likely to decrease.

BWSBoy6

This pandemic has always been as much about world politics as it was about disease control. You only have to recall the images originally coming out of China of people dropping like flies in the streets and bodies piling up. That was never the experience in the West - even at the height of the waves. The situation was exploited as propaganda by the PRC to show us how ‘bad’ it was in order then to show us how well they subsequently managed it.

To a lesser extent, all our authorities did the same. They over egged it to impress us all (and ensure compliance too) for a similar reason to the PRC; to show the electorate that they were the leaders who were decisive and able to manage a crisis - something that always appeals to voters, plus our lot certainly didn’t want the NHS to collapse under their watch as it would make them completely and forever unelectable.

Who’d have thought we would eventually come full circle from being told that covid must be stamped out completely to learning to live with it.

Right from the beginning, I’ve always suspected the pandemic would be over when governments - and to an extent, the media - decided, not when Covid receded to a low enough level and, surprise, surprise, that’s exactly what’s happened.