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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 13th Dec 2021, 18:59
  #17981 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Cambridge UK
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Originally Posted by BWSBoy6 View Post
Iíve just had it confirmed by the host of the party that 15 other guests also tested positive and experienced mild symptoms exactly like mine so that particular gathering is almost definitely the source. Whether the SA tourist is a red herring who knows, but very, very coincidental.
Too early for accurate figures, but omicron does seem to be getting a reputation for super-spreader events
Omicron variant may make Christmas party infection risk much higher https://tinyurl.com/2k8ywep4

It seems pretty certain that Omicron is more infectious than Delta, but we need to confirm/update the figures in this diagram for Omicron


Some South African reports are suggesting that the figures for SA cases may be surprising.

Hope for the best and plan for the worst.
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Old 13th Dec 2021, 20:49
  #17982 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BWSBoy6 View Post
I donít disagree - I think the advice is all over the place.

I also wouldnít put too much faith in LFTs either although I appreciate theyíre about the only thing we have as a measure. I felt a bit meh on Tuesday 23 November. Felt a bit cold and achey. Slight headache. Negative LFT. Went to bed early. Woke up 100%. On Thursday had a scratchy throat. Second LFT negative. Friday had tickly cough. LFT positive. Confirmed by PCR. Ironically, all my symptoms were typical of Omicron and Iím pretty sure I picked the infection up at a party on Saturday 20 November - where I spent some time chatting to a woman who had just come back from SA!

I have no doubt I was probably infectious for nearly 6 days before a positive result.
If you have symptoms of COVID-19, you need a different test called a PCR test. Get a PCR test if you have symptoms of COVID-19 on GOV.UK
Rapid lateral flow coronavirus (COVID-19) tests - NHS

... there are perhaps a number of reasons why these things spread so quickly.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 00:10
  #17983 (permalink)  
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Peter_H Note that the date of that graph is 2020-04-07

At the very early outset of the pandemic.

Althouugh I highly respect it for gathering and compiling and graphing a massive amount of data at the time, and it does show how deaths may take a week or three after infection, it does not take into account the Delta variant, which is far more highly infectious than the earliest strains, and at least in the US, is causing more deaths and hospitalizations amongst vulnerable patients, such as the elderly, and those who are immunocompromised, such as chemotherapy patients.

It does not reflect the spread of the Delta variant, which is far more infectious and seems to have lethal effects.

I am not saying that the chart is wrong in any way, just that the author may wish to update it.

As to Omicron, it seems to be even more infectious than Delta, but may (or may not, lets wait on the data) result in a milder form of Covid.

Regardless, funeral homes have been busy. I recently read that one in a hundred elderly people in America are passing away due to covid.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 06:56
  #17984 (permalink)  
 
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I don't understand the people who say Lateral Flow Tests are the way forward as proof for entry to big events. I know of people who would not balk at just registering the test serial number as negative and not even bothering to do it! Self Certification rarely works.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 07:20
  #17985 (permalink)  
 
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My view is that the only thing that works is keeping away from potential infectors. The trouble is that we don't know the attitudes of those around us. I see a wide range of precautions ranging from washing all your shopping in hot water and mask wearing for a walk along the prom to none whatsoever. I am about 90% along the carefulness scale. I have a small (6-7) creative writers group meeting today, all similar ages to me, I'm taking a chance on that. As from tonight it's just shopping, and that includes Xmas if things stay as they are.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 07:31
  #17986 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
My view is that the only thing that works is keeping away from potential infectors. The trouble is that we don't know the attitudes of those around us. I see a wide range of precautions ranging from washing all your shopping in hot water and mask wearing for a walk along the prom to none whatsoever. I am about 90% along the carefulness scale. I have a small (6-7) creative writers group meeting today, all similar ages to me, I'm taking a chance on that. As from tonight it's just shopping, and that includes Xmas if things stay as they are.
I get the distinct impression that as time has gone on it has become clearer that the principal method of transmission of this virus and its variants is through aerosol droplets emitted from the mouths and noses of the infected rather than from surfaces. I gain this impression from the lax table cleaning in eateries, and the the almost complete lack of trolley handle cleaning in supermarkets - something that was common during the earlier stages of the pandemic. Surely if surfaces were a major route of transmission then HMG would be, quite rightly, issuing edicts to retailers and hospitality to disinfect trolley handles, surfaces etc after each use.

To the best of my knowledge I have not so far contracted covid-19 and I'll hold my hands up; I have not been ultra careful with using trolleys in supermarkets, rarely disinfect when entering or going around them either and have certainly never gone to the extreme extent of cleaning shopping when i get it back home. I have however pretty well 100% worn the standard flimsy surgical masks in all indoor settings while moving around, including pubs and restaurants and on the (very few) occasions when I have used public transport. As I mentioned earlier, i will now be wearing a more effective (for my safety) FFP2 mask in more crowded areas that I have no choice but to visit - thinking particularly of supermarkets in the week or so running up the Christmas when they are manic.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 08:04
  #17987 (permalink)  
 
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The odd thing is that these various conclusions about the prevalence of infection seem to have been arrived at without any scientific or official input. All very peculiar given the amount of investigation that is supposedly happening.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 08:13
  #17988 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by occasional View Post
The odd thing is that these various conclusions about the prevalence of infection seem to have been arrived at without any scientific or official input. All very peculiar given the amount of investigation that is supposedly happening.
Given that omicron has only been around for a matter of a few weeks, and prevalent in many countries where there probably isn't widespread testing, nor necessarily in depth analysis of the reasons for a person's death it may still be quite difficult to draw firm conclusions regarding severity of illness and mortality rates.

That said governments, especially in Europe, may not consider it in their best interests to get more people vaccinated, and push the roll out of boosters to major on possible lesser severity of omicron. indeed the death of the first omicron victim (either 'with' or 'of' - nobody seems sure) in UK has played right into the hands of the UK government, and has received European media coverage too. It serves to reinforce the drive for boosters whilst that is no bad thing, is very unfortunate for the grieving relatives. He or she is / was not a political / propaganda football.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 08:13
  #17989 (permalink)  
 
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ATN, You arrived at the same conclusion as me. If it had been spread by touch the R number would have been astronomical.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 08:44
  #17990 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by visibility3miles View Post
Peter_H Note that the date of that graph is 2020-04-07

At the very early outset of the pandemic.

Althouugh I highly respect it for gathering and compiling and graphing a massive amount of data at the time, and it does show how deaths may take a week or three after infection, it does not take into account the Delta variant, which is far more highly infectious than the earliest strains, and at least in the US, is causing more deaths and hospitalizations amongst vulnerable patients, such as the elderly, and those who are immunocompromised, such as chemotherapy patients.

It does not reflect the spread of the Delta variant, which is far more infectious and seems to have lethal effects.

I am not saying that the chart is wrong in any way, just that the author may wish to update it.

As to Omicron, it seems to be even more infectious than Delta, but may (or may not, lets wait on the data) result in a milder form of Covid.

Regardless, funeral homes have been busy. I recently read that one in a hundred elderly people in America are passing away due to covid.
No disagreements. I was using an old graph to make the point that we need to collect similar representative data on all five paths through the diagram for Omicron.

* This will take significant calendar time to obtain enough samples for the longer paths.

* The relative probabilities of the longer, more serious paths are crucial to assessing the impact on public health services.

I'm getting irritated by repeated announcements that Omicron is milder, when what is meant is that mild/moderate cases are less unpleasant.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 09:07
  #17991 (permalink)  
 
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I'm getting irritated by repeated announcements that Omicron is milder, when what is meant is that mild/moderate cases are less unpleasant.
That's an important nuance, severe cases will always be severe, what I suppose these announcements are trying to put across (whether they be factual or more wishful thinking at this stage) is that the incidence of severe cases is less than with the delta variant. Probably more lazy journalism than a deliberate attempt to mislead or downplay on behalf of researchers.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 10:52
  #17992 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
It serves to reinforce the drive for boosters whilst that is no bad thing, is very unfortunate for the grieving relatives. He or she is / was not a political / propaganda football.
My thoughts exactly. 1700 people died yesterday, of all ages and all causes. To use this one death to make a political point is deplorable. I would be outraged if it was my family member.

How many of yesterday deaths were, for example, from cancer? Without doubt more than one. When has one single death from cancer prompted a prime minster to pull out all the stops to ensure that every single person in the U.K. would be screened within a month, whether they had symptoms or not?

It would be so much more beneficial if our leaders emphasised the importance of eating well, keeping fit etc etc. to strengthen our general immunity but then, that would never win many votes.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 11:15
  #17993 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BWSBoy6 View Post
How many of yesterday deaths were, for example, from cancer? Without doubt more than one. When has one single death from cancer prompted a prime minster to pull out all the stops to ensure that every single person in the U.K. would be screened within a month, whether they had symptoms or not?
If one person with cancer could pass it on to a room full of people the reaction would be somewhat different.

Have you any idea how many of your fellow party goers are self medicating and how many are adding to the workload of the medical services?
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 11:19
  #17994 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BWSBoy6 View Post
It would be so much more beneficial if our leaders emphasised the importance of eating well, keeping fit etc etc. to strengthen our general immunity but then, that would never win many votes.
When I went for my booster last Wednesday at a mass vaccination centre, there were numerous NHS posters around promoting exercise and healthy diet.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 11:31
  #17995 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OilCan View Post
If one person with cancer could pass it on to a room full of people the reaction would be somewhat different.

Have you any idea how many of your fellow party goers are self medicating and how many are adding to the workload of the medical services?
Every person pays into and is entitled to NHS care. It isn’t ‘free’ We’ve been down this argument route before but we don’t turn away those that drink too much, eat too much etc. They’re a burden too.

I also detect a slight air of criticism from your post that I attended a party. Would you like to expand? To date, not one of us has added to the workload of the medical services.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 11:57
  #17996 (permalink)  
 
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Whether an individuals NHS care requirements are self inflicted or not is not the issue; the capacity for the system to give us the service we may require is.

Just interested to know if you've had any more feed back on your fellow party goers?

Who did your PCR test then?

Know your enemy - NHS Digital
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 11:59
  #17997 (permalink)  
 
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I have been living here in South Africa since October 2018, and have stayed mostly in Eastern Cape, and I know only a few people who have even had Covid, let alone suffered anything more than feeling a bit crap for a few days.

BUT the stats for Covid 19 are becoming increasingly suspect...the national figures registered no recoveries for Western Cape for 2 months September to November 2021, so WC was on over 6000 active cases, where in reality there were around 700.

Now we have the opposite stuation, where the national figures have WC on 11900 active cases, where WC themselves say over 21 000! Who do we believe? Sundays national new cases was published as 18000, then "revised" to over 37 000!

The media here keeps reporting that Omicron causes only mild symptoms, with little hospitalisation needed. However I note that UK media paints a very different picture!

The we have the President self isolating with "mild" Covid19 symptoms, after testing positive just days after returning from a visit to 4 west African countries...

Still, the wine rack is full, and I have about 200 cans/bottles of beer, plus brandy whisky and gin....

Pull up the drawbridge!!

I'll manage!

<and yes, I am double Pfizer jabbed!>
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 12:03
  #17998 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Originally Posted by OilCan View Post
Whether an individuals NHS care requirements are self inflicted or not is not the issue; the capacity for the system to give us the service we may require is.

Just interested to know if you've had any more feed back on your fellow party goers?

Who did your PCR test then?
Out of around 80 attendees, there were 15 positive cases. All very mild and now recovered. The scenario sounds very similar to this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...der-party.html

The general age group of the party I attended was not dissimilar and like myself, I would assume were fully vaxxed.


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Old 14th Dec 2021, 12:18
  #17999 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by visibility3miles View Post
Although I highly respect it for gathering and compiling and graphing a massive amount of data at the time, and it does show how deaths may take a week or three after infection, it does not take into account the Delta variant, which is far more highly infectious than the earliest strains, and at least in the US, is causing more deaths and hospitalizations amongst vulnerable patients, such as the elderly, and those who are immunocompromised, such as chemotherapy patients.

It does not reflect the spread of the Delta variant, which is far more infectious and seems to have lethal effects.

I am not saying that the chart is wrong in any way, just that the author may wish to update it.
It may turn out not to need much updating.

The chart is a standard "funnel" type presentation (widely used in the direct marketing sector, albeit usually in an inverted format) which deals solely in percentages rather than absolute numbers (in this case, percentages of an unquantified number of infected people).

The only factors that would cause a change in the percentage values would be (a) if a different variant turns out to be more or less severe/lethal than others or (b) if, due to extreme transmissibility, the author's stated assumption that "everyone gets treatment" proves unsustainable and health resources are overwhelmed.

The percentages are, of course, averages so the fact that particular segments of the population will suffer proportionately more, or less, does not invalidate the findings.
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Old 14th Dec 2021, 12:54
  #18000 (permalink)  
 
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All countries now dropped from U.K. Red List including Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
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