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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 4th Aug 2021, 02:48
  #16841 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Glorious Devon
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
As to MSNBC I would trust week old convenience store Sushi long before I would MSNBC.
When someone disagrees with your posts, they give you a reasoned argument. Since this is an opinion piece, based on facts quoted in the article, surely you can do better than “yah boo sucks!”
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 04:10
  #16842 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
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On the subject of US immigration - still no in sight for this travel ban for Europe. What is the justification other than an attempt at gaining some sort of competitive advantage?
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 08:21
  #16843 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
As to MSNBC I would trust week old convenience store Sushi long before I would MSNBC.
I suspect that explains many of your recent posts here. Given you have said that you don't have cable TV so can't watch Fox, then how are you watching MSNBC in order to form your opinion?

Last edited by Hokulea; 4th Aug 2021 at 09:54.
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 10:10
  #16844 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
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And sometimes it's really hard to convincingly bend the facts into anyone's preconceptions.

Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02125-1
Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it.

Hopefully we will emerge not sadder but wiser.
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 10:55
  #16845 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
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Originally Posted by Peter H View Post
And sometimes it's really hard to convincingly bend the facts into anyone's preconceptions.

Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02125-1
Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it.

Hopefully we will emerge not sadder but wiser.
That seems to go against the prediction of a late August lockdown as announced on this forum.. but we'll see... still plenty of time for things to change...
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 11:06
  #16846 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Originally Posted by mike current View Post
That seems to go against the prediction of a late August lockdown as announced on this forum.. but we'll see... still plenty of time for things to change...
There certainly is something odd going on. The estimated active cases curve for my area is very strange. The downslope is even steeper than the upslope. That normally does not happen and didn't on any of the previous waves. As the Nature article says, there are complex factors at work and there probably isn't a single explanation. I am waiting for the ONS data, which is more representative of the real situation as it samples the population at large, rather than those presenting to be tested.
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 13:40
  #16847 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
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Dannyboy,

The linked article provides some historical information about the Air Travel and other Travel Bans ordered the American Presidents (plural....two of them) and points out the contradictions being seen in the current US Policies.

I suppose in time the President shall get around to either changing the policy or explaining why he continues to restrict travel.

One thought is the Federal Government is contemplating another shutdown of the country as a whole due to the new Variant(s) being seen on the increase.

As an aside this incongruity in policy is exemplified by the difference in the treatment of Cubans fleeing Cuba and coming to Florida by sea.....who get turned back....and the situation on the Southwest Border where we see the highest number of illegal crossings in the past twenty years.

Last week in conversation I asked my Primary Care Physician when we would see the end of Mask and other requirements....his response was "How would I know....I am a Doctor not a Politician.".

The UK Government is the key to ending the ban on travel to the USA....not our CDC as it is the President who issues the Executive Order following learned counsel from experts.....or one would hope anyway.

Therein lies a problem I am thinking.


https://cis.org/Arthur/What-Logic-Be...id-Travel-Bans

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Old 4th Aug 2021, 14:52
  #16848 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
There certainly is something odd going on. The estimated active cases curve for my area is very strange. The downslope is even steeper than the upslope. That normally does not happen and didn't on any of the previous waves. As the Nature article says, there are complex factors at work and there probably isn't a single explanation. I am waiting for the ONS data, which is more representative of the real situation as it samples the population at large, rather than those presenting to be tested.
If you think about it in the secondary and higher education sectors there was a requirement to complete LFTs twice per week, and in my experience by and large secondary pupils at least were conforming. If a LFT showed a positive result then the "victim" went for a PCR, which if also positive, it would become a statistic. It seems entirely possible that many of those positive LFTs taken for school were asymptomatic, and could well have remained so right through the infection. Now, with secondary schools shut and LFTs not being done religiously, then many more asymptomatic infections are just going unnoticed, or or very minor illness disregarded as "a bit of a cold". Perhaps, as most of the parents will have been double jabbed by now and fully protected, any potential infections passed on to older people aren't presenting at all in the stats as they aren't proving symptomatic - no symptoms, no needs to do LFT or PCR test; and of course if you're booked to go on holiday very little incentive to take a test as it could jeopardise the trip.

It seems quite inconceivable to me that with the night time now fully open actual infections aren't rising, and as you say, the ONS data tomorrow may provide a much better indication on infection in the real world than NHS Track and Trace PCR testing does.
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 15:08
  #16849 (permalink)  
 
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A July 29th WaPo Article about a leaked confidential CDC Power Point Presentation that begins to explain the change in the CDC changes in policy re masks, etc.

It outlines the need for the CDC to better communicate with the Public as opposition to taking the Vaccines builds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...mask-guidance/

Last edited by SASless; 4th Aug 2021 at 15:41.
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 22:20
  #16850 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
A July 29th WaPo Article about a leaked confidential CDC Power Point Presentation that begins to explain the change in the CDC changes in policy re masks, etc.

It outlines the need for the CDC to better communicate with the Public as opposition to taking the Vaccines builds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...mask-guidance/
This probably explains, in addition to the stock market fall with a certain cable “news” outlet’s reporting, why there was a push by a usually reticent political party to start pushing for vaccinations. It seems like vaccinations are the best way out of this thing. As well as masks and social distancing. It’s not difficult.
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 23:20
  #16851 (permalink)  
 
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The "science" seems to be telling us that vaccines are not very effective for the Delta Variant...so hyping vaccination as a voluntary choice might be the better ticket than going the oppressive coercion route as has been tried of late.

Where I am going tomorrow for a Convention of Vietnam Helicopter Pilots...several. hundred Medical Professionals are protesting outside their Hospitals over an Employer Mandate...be Vaccinated or be gone.

The optics of that are hard to get around when one is told about the need to be vaccinated.

Doctors on a picket line protesting vaccinations does make for Six O'Clock Nightly news reports that ordinary folk will look at and wonder what the truth of the. matter is.
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Old 4th Aug 2021, 23:30
  #16852 (permalink)  
 
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You might want to check that claim for yourself from a reputable source rather just believe what you are told. Vaccines are working against Delta in UK, but it needs both doses. In fact we are looking at expanding the vaccinated cohort to 16 and over.
The reaction of your medics is odd. In the UK and some other countries mandatory vaccination against certain diseases is a condition of employment for health service personnel and has been for ages. Hepatitis comes to mind. As an ex military man, you were also subject to mandatory vaccination. It is a shame this has become so politicised.
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Old 5th Aug 2021, 01:45
  #16853 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
Dannyboy,

The linked article provides some historical information about the Air Travel and other Travel Bans ordered the American Presidents (plural....two of them) and points out the contradictions being seen in the current US Policies.

I suppose in time the President shall get around to either changing the policy or explaining why he continues to restrict travel.

One thought is the Federal Government is contemplating another shutdown of the country as a whole due to the new Variant(s) being seen on the increase.

As an aside this incongruity in policy is exemplified by the difference in the treatment of Cubans fleeing Cuba and coming to Florida by sea.....who get turned back....and the situation on the Southwest Border where we see the highest number of illegal crossings in the past twenty years.

Last week in conversation I asked my Primary Care Physician when we would see the end of Mask and other requirements....his response was "How would I know....I am a Doctor not a Politician.".

The UK Government is the key to ending the ban on travel to the USA....not our CDC as it is the President who issues the Executive Order following learned counsel from experts.....or one would hope anyway.

Therein lies a problem I am thinking.

https://cis.org/Arthur/What-Logic-Be...id-Travel-Bans
With respect, this article seems totally confused and looking to pin blame on undocumented migrants when there is no difference between them and domestic US cases when it comes to Covid.

Trump removed the ban in January purely for political reasons - I freely admit that this was not wise because Europe was really in the grip at this time of the second wave. In January alone, something like 40,000 died in the U.K. from Covid.

As of this week, despite not having an electronic means of tracking shots, US citizens are now welcome into the U.K. without quarantine. That is not being reciprocated and hasn’t been in Europe either where the door has been open for longer.

I’ve just looked at the U.K.’s revised red travel list - I think only 2 out of 72 countries on that list are banned from entering the US. Not to say the U.K. travel policy is anywhere near perfect… of course not, but at least the situation is fluid and not totally inconsistent with the way the world is moving.

I put it to you that the current ban is an attempt to maintain economic advantage over European competitors, rather than health reasons.
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Old 5th Aug 2021, 09:39
  #16854 (permalink)  
 
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One for our experts. BBC news has just said PCR test are advisory not mandatory when travelling. Are they wrong.

Last edited by N707ZS; 5th Aug 2021 at 19:10.
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Old 5th Aug 2021, 09:40
  #16855 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
It seems quite inconceivable to me that with the night time now fully open actual infections aren't rising, and as you say, the ONS data tomorrow may provide a much better indication on infection in the real world than NHS Track and Trace PCR testing does.
Unfortunately, it seems the daily cases are beginning to rise again:


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Old 5th Aug 2021, 09:48
  #16856 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
The "science" seems to be telling us that vaccines are not very effective for the Delta Variant...so hyping vaccination as a voluntary choice might be the better ticket than going the oppressive coercion route as has been tried of late.
Please show us the scientific evidence that the current vaccines are not very effective with the delta variant, and please try to understand those studies rather than imply vaccinations are not effective. Jeez, this is like dealing with a flat-earther.
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Old 5th Aug 2021, 09:50
  #16857 (permalink)  
 
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MikeSnow

Probably a little early to be sure, but certainly looks that way.

I suppose that the full effects of the night time economy reopening only really began to hit from the first full weekend (Friday - Sunday) which would have been 23-25 July, and given the 7-10 day lag between exposure and symptoms becoming evident, you wouldn't expect to see a surge in positive PCR tests until between 30th July and 1st August - which is pretty much what we can see from the chart above.

It is striking how much and how quickly the new infection figures have tumbled in The Netherlands since Mark Rutte slammed on the brakes and largely shut down night clubs again, whilst apologising to the Dutch people for getting the reopening wrong. It is entirely possible that the UK could see a massive surge in cases again, among the 18 - 30 age group, and similar action having to be taken here.
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Old 5th Aug 2021, 09:55
  #16858 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
The UK Government is the key to ending the ban on travel to the USA....not our CDC as it is the President who issues the Executive Order following learned counsel from experts.....or one would hope anyway.
Can someone explain this logic to me? How is the UK government responsible for travel restrictions imposed by the US?
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Old 5th Aug 2021, 10:26
  #16859 (permalink)  
 
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Mike Snow.

I hesitate to question such an august body as JH, but is it correct to plot the result of a 7 day rolling average at the end of the 7 day period rather than at the midpoint?
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Old 5th Aug 2021, 10:50
  #16860 (permalink)  
 
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Danny Boy,

I cannot ascribe a motive to all of this....but fully agree the travel policy, and immigration law enforcement of the current administration is a disaster....which also had direct implications of ignoring the science of Covid prevention.

So much of what has been done is being done for strictly political reasons and not for the direct benefit of the public at large.

We can differ on the political part but the healthcare and response to the pandemic but at the end of the day....we are seeing a gross failure of the Federal /government to fairly and properly address the many problems itself has caused.

Then, we see Government using Big Tech and the media to buttress its actions and depriving the Public of the truth of what is happening and we all are being adversely affected.

No after who we may want,,,,politics is driving the current Government's policies rather than the science.
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