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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 22nd Jul 2021, 12:52
  #16561 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1998
Location: Mesopotamos
Posts: 1,625
And what's the current stance for those that have caught the virus and recovered, do they still need the vaccination? Yes
Is there a ready test for Covid-19 antibodies? Yes
Does it involve a lengthy analysis? No
Not the kind of scientific elaboration I was looking for but will give you 1 point for humour.
Truth is I have no idea whether in real life you are a well respected expert on such matters or just someone looking for attention on an internet forum.

I guess I will have to go ask elsewhere.

PS: Thanks Hokulea.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 12:53
  #16562 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Hawaii
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I've found my online version of a doppelganger!
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 13:00
  #16563 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Hawaii
Posts: 127
Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Not the kind of scientific elaboration I was looking for but will give you 1 point for humour.
Truth is I have no idea whether in real life you are a well respected expert on such matters or just someone looking for attention on an internet forum.

I guess I will have to go ask elsewhere.

PS: Thanks Hokulea.
Well, good luck with that. Your questions were answered. I think the rest of us have no idea if you are a well-respected expert in anything either, but then again it's not obvious you got the answers you hoped for so now want to go off and find answers you do want to read.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 13:08
  #16564 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1998
Location: Mesopotamos
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Thanks Hokulea for answering my first question, and just to remove any doubt about my previous post, it was targeted at Ninthace for being the funny one not yourself. Not able to type fast doesn't help me on such forums.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 13:12
  #16565 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Hawaii
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Smoking, alcohol, poor diet still kill more people than Covid-19.
The problem is there is no vaccine for any of those. However, there are vaccines for COVID.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 13:17
  #16566 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Hawaii
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Thanks, cattletruck. One of the things that disappoints me so much is when we have well-proven methods to prevent illness and deaths, many people get all upset and think it's just some government conspiracy or using essential oils or homeopathy is the answer. My apologies if I jumped at you a little bit, but I'm just fed up with the human race trying to kill themselves, and when they find a cure, the idiots take over and tell all the other morons what they shouldn't do, and a significant percentage of the planet believes them


Time to light the candles and go to bed.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 13:19
  #16567 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1998
Location: Mesopotamos
Posts: 1,625
As we already know there are annual vaccines for flu which are readily taken up by many, could perhaps the Covid-19 vaccine program turn into a similar annual event with the emergence of new strains?
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 13:26
  #16568 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Thanks Hokulea for answering my first question, and just to remove any doubt about my previous post, it was targeted at Ninthace for being the funny one not yourself. Not able to type fast doesn't help me on such forums.
I'm sorry. As a scientist I answer questions that I am asked rather than those you think you asked. In all seriousness, I would never take advice on a subject of that gravity from anyone on a forum as you have no idea of their credentials or motivation. The question you asked can be answered by a reputable website such as a gov.uk site or by recourse to a medical practitioner. I certainly would not take medical advice from any site with the word Rumour in its title. Hence the very limited, but accurate, answer you got. For what its worth, I am a Doctor but is a qualification in a scientific subject, not a job description.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 13:47
  #16569 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1998
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All good Ninthace. The thing is many of us have been on this forum for decades and we sort of know enough about each other and therefore know whose expertise to trust for some basic advice which is often based more on real world experience rather than some referenced text. This then gives us some background to go seek real professional advice and come out of it with the right result or occasionally looking like a right royal goose. VP was very good at accurately dispensing knowledge on this thread before he got locked out, I guess we kinda got used to that.

Back to topic.

The worst flu I caught in my life came 4 days after returning from Europe in August 2019 and it had remarkable similarities with symptoms of Covid-19, I hadn't really caught anything serious for well over a decade. But I never got tested so will never know.

Officially, the first cases of this virus was in December 2019 in China, but even that information proved difficult to confirm.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 14:03
  #16570 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
All good Ninthace. The thing is many of us have been on this forum for decades and we sort of know enough about each other and therefore know whose expertise to trust for some basic advice which is often based more on real world experience rather than some referenced text. This then gives us some background to go seek real professional advice and come out of it with the right result or occasionally looking like a right royal goose. VP was very good at accurately dispensing knowledge on this thread before he got locked out, I guess we kinda got used to that.


Back to topic.


The worst flu I caught in my life came 4 days after returning from Europe in August 2019 and it had remarkable similarities with symptoms of Covid-19, I hadn't really caught anything serious for well over a decade. But I never got tested so will never know.


Officially, the first cases of this virus was in December 2019 in China, but even that information proved difficult to confirm.
Indeed, there is evidence from blood samples taken from cancer patients, that Covid was present in Europe, specifically, Italy, in the latter part of 2019. This is still to be confirmed.


I find a good source on this and other matters scientific, is a subscription to New Scientist. Better than the output of Fleet St for getting the right end of the stick.

Despite what it says on my profile, I have been a member of PPRuNe almost since the days of dial up modems. I lurked for years and was happy to stay that way until my ire was finally provoked by some of the utter gibberish being posted about Covid, which could actually be harmful if believed. Once the floodgates opened I enjoyed it to I stayed but I inhabit relatively few threads. I miss VP too, I trained as a military scientific adviser in a related establishment. Health Physics, Chemical and Biological Warfare and Disease Control have many principles in common.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 14:18
  #16571 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Talking of contributors who knew their stuff but have been banned, left on their own accord etc, OldnGrounded was a useful font of knowledge during the earlier days of this thread.

Anyhow, I'll be trip trapping along over this lovely bridge....
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 14:29
  #16572 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Children in the Firing Line

From the current edition of New Scientist, the impact of a herd immunity strategy on our children.

IF THERE has been one saving grace of the covid-19 pandemic, it is that children are relatively safe from serious disease and death compared with adults.

Over the first year of the pandemic, only 259 under-18s in England were admitted to intensive care with covid-19. Another 312 were treated for a serious but rare condition that developed after infection called delayed inflammatory syndrome.

As the UK government prepares to lift nearly all covid-19 restrictions in England on 19 July and allow the virus to spread through the community (see Covid-19 deaths in England could peak at 100 per day in August), it might seem as if children aren’t at risk, but this isn’t the case.

Under-18s make up a fifth of the UK population and very few have been vaccinated, because unlike countries such as the US, which is offering covid-19 vaccines to children who are 12 and over, the UK has decided to hold off (see Is it time for the UK to vaccinate children against covid-19?). Cases of covid-19 in the UK are growing fast, and with more than half of the adult population vaccinated, the spread of the virus will be driven into younger people, especially unvaccinated children.

Effectively, the government is pursuing a “natural herd immunity” strategy, in which children are exposed to the virus until nearly all of them develop immunity.

If children are at low risk of dying, does this matter? Well, when very large numbers of people are exposed to the virus, many will get ill and some will die. In the case of children, those at highest risk are those with underlying medical conditions. In the first year of the pandemic, 25 children died in the UK from either acute covid-19 or the delayed inflammatory syndrome, and that was while restrictions were in place.

In addition, some 13 per cent of infected children develop persistent and sometimes debilitating symptoms. Letting the virus rip through a pool of unvaccinated people also increases the risk of a new variant emerging that can evade the protection from the vaccines we have. We have argued many times in the pages of this magazine against taking this kind of herd immunity approach to the pandemic. The same logic applies to children.

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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 14:50
  #16573 (permalink)  
 
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Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, also from New Scientist,

The fight against coronavirus needs to embrace evolutionary theory

EARLIER this year, Dido Harding, whilst heading England’s coronavirus test and trace system, said that no one could have predicted that new variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes covid-19, would emerge. Of course this was predicted, and while some people questioned Harding’s statement, many still seem surprised that the virus continues to mutate.

With covid-19, we have taken a largely reactive approach to new variants. As each emerges, we evaluate the genomic changes, and then attempt to establish whether these mean it represents a greater health threat. But it is critical that we start to take evolution, rather than just genetic change, into account, especially given the recent announcement that cases could reach 100,000 per day in the UK as it opens up – accelerating the rate at which new variants may emerge.

In long-lived organisms, like humans, individual genetic mutations don’t tend to have much of an effect. But among viruses, even one mutation can drastically affect its fitness – how well it is adapted to host species. This is why a fast-evolving virus like influenza consistently stays ahead of our best efforts to vaccinate against it.

The connection between an organism’s genetic make-up and its environment is the bedrock of what is known as the modern synthesis of evolutionary biology. According to the modern synthesis, random genomic changes that increase fitness in a given environment will inevitably become more common.

Modern evolutionary theory takes a similar approach. In behavioural ecology, for example, researchers have adopted what is known as the phenotypic gambit. This concept, whose name comes from a chess strategy of sacrificing a piece for tactical gain, assumes that changes in phenotype – which are measurable features, like eye or hair colour – are governed by genetic change. But the gambit stops there: we sacrifice knowledge of the particular genetic change, and focus instead on observable features alone when talking about fitness.

Rather than using evolutionary theory to attempt to predict how SARS-CoV-2 is likely to shift behaviour, many researchers have largely focused on genetic change alone. It seems that by just tracking changes in molecular make-up, geneticists are making a sacrifice of their own – which we could call a genotypic gambit.
The sacrifice, here, is jettisoning this reasoning when talking about the risk of variants. That reasoning suggests more variants will arise that improve the virus’s transmissibility among humans. We can’t predict the precise genetic changes, at least not yet, but we should assume they will arise, and plan accordingly.

The genotypic gambit keeps us on the defensive. It wouldn’t have been a surprise to evolutionary theorists, for example, that a covid-19 outbreak among mink in Denmark would lead to mink-specific mutations. The particular genetic changes are important, but they are more like descriptions of the behaviours – rewritten in the language of genetics – that we can and should plan for.

As the UK removes covid-19 restrictions, we are likely to see further, fitter variants that some argue will allow the virus to evade vaccination. Genomic data can tell us exactly how this happens, but aren’t necessary for making the overall evolutionary prediction.

In the US, for example, the window between first and second mRNA vaccine doses is three weeks, not the 12 initially used in the UK. The delta variant has, consequently, taken longer to gain a foothold there – predictable from evolutionary theory.

Covid-19 is still a long way from being under control. The data we are collecting about its ongoing genetic changes, coupled with Darwinian evolutionary logic, should inform the timing of booster shots and local lockdowns. But if we continue to play the genotypic gambit, the virus will continue to outmanoeuvre us.

Jonathan R. Goodman
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 15:31
  #16574 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
If you saw someone about to swig poison, would you shrug and say "their choice" or would you knock it out of their hands?
Now back to #16538
That would entirely depend on who it was…
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 16:17
  #16575 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Cambridge UK
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>And what's the current stance for those that have caught the virus and recovered, do they still need the vaccination? Yes
>Is there a ready test for Covid-19 antibodies? Yes
>Does it involve a lengthy analysis? No

Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Not the kind of scientific elaboration I was looking for but will give you 1 point for humour.
Truth is I have no idea whether in real life you are a well respected expert on such matters or just someone looking for attention on an internet forum

I guess I will have to go ask elsewhere.

PS: Thanks Hokulea.
Another question you might ask yourself -- "Is there any downside to getting vaccinated if I've previously had covid?". I'm not aware of any.

My own experience of the current process.

1) Probably had covid (fever, loss of smell, lowish blood oxygen, ...) and was monitored on my surgery's "virtual ward".

2 ) When eligible I was offered vaccination by the surgery.

3) At the vaccination center I was not asked about previous covid history (although they did ask if there were any current symptoms).

... which is consistent with them wanting me to take the vaccination despite having previously had covid.

So I would/did go with it .. and expect to have more "booster" vaccinations in the future.

Last edited by Peter H; 22nd Jul 2021 at 16:27.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 16:35
  #16576 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
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Originally Posted by annakm View Post
Lovely bedside manner from Dr Cobia. Rather than telling a dying patient, “It’s too late” How about, “We’re going to try xyz”?
But she already told them that: they are going to try intubating them. Then they request the vaccine, then she tells them it's too late for that.

Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
If you have mental capacity and make a valid choice that is up to you...
Unfortunately, it's not entirely up to you. Many rely on the opinion of their friends, neighbors, teachers, medics, priests or their favorite politicians to make a choice, since they are unable to gather or analyze the facts and the science themselves. Not everyone can be an expert in epidemiology, immunology and statistics, and there's nothing wrong with that. Unfortunately, if you live in a bubble where a significant proportion of those you trust are anti-vaccine, it's likely you'll make the wrong choice. So, we should be careful not to demonize those that refuse to get vaccinated. If we were in their shoes, we might have done the same.
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 16:56
  #16577 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow View Post
Unfortunately, it's not entirely up to you. Many rely on the opinion of their friends, neighbors, teachers, medics, priests or their favorite politicians to make a choice, since they are unable to gather or analyze the facts and the science themselves. Not everyone can be an expert in epidemiology, immunology and statistics, and there's nothing wrong with that. Unfortunately, if you live in a bubble where a significant proportion of those you trust are anti-vaccine, it's likely you'll make the wrong choice. So, we should be careful not to demonize those that refuse to get vaccinated. If we were in their shoes, we might have done the same.
Hey, I completely agree. Certainly would not demonize anyone. I have in fact been vaccinated, mainly because I succumbed to Govt propaganda. Do really wonder whether I needed to be. I did talk to my daughter about it but otherwise it was pretty much my decision. Done now anyway...!!
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 19:13
  #16578 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
I have in fact been vaccinated, mainly because I succumbed to Govt propaganda.
There you go again.

You've already stated in a previous post that you believe the Government's vaccination campaign is propaganda (i.e. not to be taken at face value), but that you nevertheless have no idea what the true purpose might be.

Have you considered the possibility that the true purpose might actually be to get people vaccinated ?
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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 19:40
  #16579 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
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Very roughly, 92% of the U.K. population now has antibodies, leaving 8% still most vulnerable.
8% of 67 million = 536,000
Thats still a lot at risk out there, although it could be very much worse.
The country can’t be far off herd immunity.

The overall U.K. infection figures also look far worse in comparison to the rest of the world as you test up to 5x more than any other nation.

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Old 22nd Jul 2021, 20:08
  #16580 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by annakm View Post
Very roughly, 92% of the U.K. population now has antibodies, leaving 8% still most vulnerable.
8% of 67 million = 536,000
Thats still a lot at risk out there, although it could be very much worse.
The country can’t be far off herd immunity.

The overall U.K. infection figures also look far worse in comparison to the rest of the world as you test up to 5x more than any other nation.
The presence of antibodies does not imply immunity. It reduces, but does not eliminate the risk of infection and its consequences. Antibodies also decrease with time. It is thought those associated with vaccination are more effective than those arising from infection.
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