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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 14th Jul 2021, 11:10
  #16321 (permalink)  
 
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oversimplification of the messages (iow treating people like idiots); faux respect and trust messages, when they know that there are a lot of idiots who just don't get it or care
So basically if the government treat you like an idiot they are wrong, and if they don't they are wong? Makes me think they are closer to the mark wth the first one...
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 11:52
  #16322 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Covid Outbreak on HMS Queen Elizabeth

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57830617

Given that all the crew have been double vaccinated, and assuming that all of them had received the 2nd dose 14+ days ago this is clearly worrying since it must be quite a substantial percentage of the crew on board one ship. Moreover, we are assured that social distancing measures were being enforced on the ship.

It may well be that many, perhaps most cases are asymptomatic, and that those who have contracted symptomatic infection have only a mild illness, but it does underline, if anyone was in any doubt, that these vaccinations (and we assume they had either Pfizer or Moderna given the likely age profile of the crew) are no silver bullet, and if anything reemphasizes just how short sighted the English government's policy on "freedom day" actually is. More caution was / is required, and I fear it won't be long before Johnson is going to have to do some rather awkward backtracking.
Being double vaccinated does not stop you being positive for Covid. It seems that while the antibodies are in your blood stream but there is nothing to stop the virus setting up home in the nasal mucosa where they will not see a lot of antibodies. You may not necessarily get sick, but a swab will pick the virus up.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 11:56
  #16323 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
The current wave is the first "natural" wave we have seen during the pandemic, i.e. few countermeasures. It will climb quite sharply and probably have quite a high maximum for a wave at this stage in a pandemic but the tail could be quite extended. Vaccines will affect the height of the hospitalisations and deaths curves but as any devotee of calculus will tell you, it is the integral that matters when it comes to totals. An extended curve could still mean significant numbers of victims but a low peak would decrease the risk of medical facilities being overwhelmed.
If the wave peaks, it means the R dropped to 1 and it's still going down, as less and less people are susceptible to being infected. In other words, you've just reached the herd immunity threshold. As you said, what normally follows after that is a long tail that could still cause a lot of casualties. In theory a couple of weeks of lockdown just after reaching that peak could shorten that tail significantly. Then, when the number of active cases gets really low and if the R is still under 1, ending the lockdown won't cause any rise in cases.

But I'm guessing few countries will have the courage to even open the discussion about more lockdowns. I mean, you could probably sell a "last lockdown before complete freedom" in some countries. But no one can guarantee a new wave won't come in the future if conditions change (people's immunity dropping, new variants emerging, etc).

Here in Romania, we seem to have reached herd immunity, mostly through people getting the virus this winter, and partially through the vaccinations, although only 25% have been vaccinated so far and even reaching 30% before this fall seems optimistic at the moment. So far, we had two big waves, one peaking in November-December, and one in March-April.

At the beginning of April, just as the second wave was peaking and the ICU departments were overwhelmed, the experts advised the government that "A lockdown at this point would do wonders.". They were almost universally derided for saying that, and no lockdowns were introduced. After reaching the peak, obviously, the number of cases started to go down. So, everyone started patting themselves on the back, saying "See? We didn't need a lockdown after all, those experts were crazy."

What we experienced since then has been the long tail you were mentioning. We had about 8,000 excess deaths in April, and 3,700 in May, bringing the total for the pandemic to about 63,000 for a population of about 19 million. June statistics are not available yet. Now in July we are down to just one or two deaths daily, and almost no new cases in most regions of the country. But, if we would have listened to those experts and had a lockdown in April, we might have avoided most of the excess deaths from April and May. Basically, we would have cut that long tail. We did not. And I'm not sure it was worth it.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 12:47
  #16324 (permalink)  
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https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/1558...r-weeks-green/

Ibiza, Majorca and Menorca set to go back on amber list – just 2 weeks after going green

Ibiza, Mallorca and Menorca are on the cusp of going back on the amber list, just weeks after being declared covid safe.

Thousands of youngsters who aren't fully vaccinated will have to isolate for ten days after returning from their 18-30s break following a surge in cases.

The popular Spanish islands were only added to the green watch list three weeks ago - but travellers were warned that they could drop back to amber at any moment.

A final decision on the latest update to the traffic light system is set to be approved by ministers on Wednesday. But under new rules coming in next week, double-jabbed Brits will still be able to take advantage of the holiday destinations without the need to quarantine on return.

Cases on the islands have soared to 258 cases per 100,000 people. It could mean a mad dash to get home for younger holiday-makers who have not yet received both doses of the vaccine.

A source said: “It’s all still up for discussion, but the figures aren’t great which is why it was on the watch list in the first place.”

Double-jabbed Brits coming back after the switch will not have to isolate, but will still need to take a test before their return to the UK, and on the second day after getting home….
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 12:58
  #16325 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
Being double vaccinated does not stop you being positive for Covid. It seems that while the antibodies are in your blood stream but there is nothing to stop the virus setting up home in the nasal mucosa where they will not see a lot of antibodies. You may not necessarily get sick, but a swab will pick the virus up.
I absolutely appreciate that, but many people do feel they are invincible having been double vaccinated, and whilst in terms of not become particularly ill they may be right to do so, however in terms of passing the virus on to those who haven't been vaccinated or to those who for medical reasons can't be, or have very poor immune systems vaccination may be far less effective.

With regard to the "natural" wave of covid-19 that the UK now appears, or very soon will appear to be experiencing, the question is how long will it take to peak, and how long after the peak can we expect to see "herd immunity" in the UK? I'm sure the government is hoping, or betting on it being reach somewhere around mid to end of September so that the nonsense of "freshers weeks" without covid restrictions can go ahead without causing a massive overload on hospitals, not through students stupidity, but through them passing the virus on vulnerable groups, the old (stupid) unvaccinated cohort and those who were vaccinated earlier in the programme, and who's immunity may be starting to wain.

This experiment, for that is what it surely is, a tremendous risk, not only from a public health perspective, but also for the government, from a political one.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 13:00
  #16326 (permalink)  
 
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Ibiza, Majorca and Menorca set to go back on amber list – just 2 weeks after going green
Listening to Shapps on BBC Breakfast this morning trying his hardest not to answer direct questions about the Balearics I'd say them going on the amber list is pretty well nailed on. Might make visiting Ibiza in the height of summer, for those of use fully vaccinated a half pleasant experience without the British (and other) riff-raff puking in the streets and being generally obnoxious!!
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 13:11
  #16327 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I absolutely appreciate that, but many people do feel they are invincible having been double vaccinated, and whilst in terms of not become particularly ill they may be right to do so, however in terms of passing the virus on to those who haven't been vaccinated or to those who for medical reasons can't be, or have very poor immune systems vaccination may be far less effective.

With regard to the "natural" wave of covid-19 that the UK now appears, or very soon will appear to be experiencing, the question is how long will it take to peak, and how long after the peak can we expect to see "herd immunity" in the UK? I'm sure the government is hoping, or betting on it being reach somewhere around mid to end of September so that the nonsense of "freshers weeks" without covid restrictions can go ahead without causing a massive overload on hospitals, not through students stupidity, but through them passing the virus on vulnerable groups, the old (stupid) unvaccinated cohort and those who were vaccinated earlier in the programme, and who's immunity may be starting to wain.

This experiment, for that is what it surely is, a tremendous risk, not only from a public health perspective, but also for the government, from a political one.
I think the money is on a peak in early August and a 6 to 9 week tail. As to herd immunity, no idea, it may not even happen. One possible outcome of letting a big wave run through a population of mixed vaccine status is the emergence of a vaccine resistant variant and we start all over. It is without question a giant experiment with fingers crossed for a successful outcome.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 13:24
  #16328 (permalink)  

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My experience with testing etc is interesting. As I have said previously, I probably caught Covid way back in March/April 2020. A blood test in September found the relevant Antibodies. The result suggested that it was not a recent infection - which tallies with my experience. Since June 2020 I have had 26 tests for antigens (whether it be PCR/LAMP or lateral flow). In November, I was part of a ZOE (UK) study and the blood test didn't find any ABs. Again tallies with the 6 month thing.

I am now happily double jabbed and very early July 2021, I was a participant in another ZOE/NHS trial and the blood test returned positive for Covid ABs. Note - the test did not look for the vaccine immune response so it suggests that within the last 6 months I had been exposed to the Covid virus again. Since February, I have done 18 tests for the antigens. All negative. Some were PCR, some were LAMP, and the rest Lateral flow tests.

So my immune system detected the virus, booted it out before I could get sick or record a positive result on the various antigen tests I have done.
Result.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 14:18
  #16329 (permalink)  
 
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I absolutely appreciate that, but many people do feel they are invincible having been double vaccinated, and whilst in terms of not become particularly ill they may be right to do so, however in terms of passing the virus on to those who haven't been vaccinated or to those who for medical reasons can't be, or have very poor immune systems vaccination may be far less effective.
Or to put this in another more blunt way, for a small but significant percentage of the population, catching COVID-19 is a death sentence.

My cousin aged 57, who was undergoing regular hospital treatment for over a decade for women's health issues, had sadly predicted her own mortality.

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Old 14th Jul 2021, 14:46
  #16330 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
and how long after the peak can we expect to see "herd immunity" in the UK?
Assuming a homogeneous population, if you are at the peak, the number of daily cases should start to slowly go down. If there are no restrictions at that time it means you already reached the herd immunity threshold because R is under one. But of course, the population is not actually homogeneous, so you might need to look at smaller areas, like cities, not at the entire country. Some areas can reach it sooner, some later. Also, R can increase again for a variety of reasons. Changes in population behavior, changes in the weather, immunity decreasing for those previously immunized, new variants with a higher R0 emerging, etc. So just because you reached herd immunity it's not guaranteed it will last forever, and there will be no future wave. After all, we have flu waves each winter, and it's likely the same will happen with COVID.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 16:18
  #16331 (permalink)  
 
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But should we keep locking down the vast majority because of a minority that can’t or won’t have the vaccine? Those that won’t, that’s their choice, those that can’t unfortunately will have to take responsibility for their own safety exactly the same way anyone who has had immunosuppressant treatment has to. Governments have to look at the bigger picture rather then the exceptions.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 16:48
  #16332 (permalink)  
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Seeing the report that Ibiza, Menorca etc will shortly be going back on the Amber list as case numbers rise I can’t help but think that, as immunity rises, the UK population - especially those under 30 - are increasingly a horde of Typhoid Marys with an embedded rate of asymptomatic Covid which they take with them wherever they go.

The result is, and will be till other rates of vaccination and natural immunity catch up, a roll call of destination going green, then Amber as their relatively unprotected populations succumb to the Delta variant.

I know it’s the responsibility of the tourist destinations governments to balance tourism income and their economies against the risk, just as it’s the UK governments just to view the risk the other way round. But it still feels we should take some responsibility and stay at home for holidays this year.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 16:55
  #16333 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I know itís the responsibility of the tourist destinations governments to balance tourism income and their economies against the risk, just as itís the UK governments just to view the risk the other way round. But it still feels we should take some responsibility and stay at home for holidays this year.
Indeed we probably should, however for some people a holiday is a higher priority than working, and listening to the (awful) Jeremy Vine show today holidays appear more important than a kid's education. Talk of things getting out of proportion! Also of course there is a little matter of the UK's commercial aviation industry, which if it continues to be constrained by onerous testing regimes, quarantining and the like may well cease to exist in its current size and form, and the UK will lose its pre-eminence in another industrial / commercial sector as the Germans, French and Dutch (to name but three) are busily getting back to something more akin to normal.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 19:12
  #16334 (permalink)  
 
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For my own interest and to keep an estimate of the risk to me and mine I use the Government site to calculate how many active cases there are in my local authority area. This is a statistic which the government finds it hard to report though other countries seem to manage. My methodology is crude, it is the sum of cases over the last 3 weeks on the basis after three weeks most people will either be recovered or deceased - I said it was crude but is consistent,

On that basis, today in my corner of this sceptred isle, we have now matched the peak of the last wave but we are still climbing. The 7 day average of cases has also passed the peak for the last wave. Deep joy!
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 19:39
  #16335 (permalink)  
 
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OK. I understand both sides of the coin. Lets have it. Age. Morbidity. Profession. Home. View point.

1. 53
2. No existing conditions.
3. Airline pilot.
4. Wife in education. 2 children. One a level/degree level shafted by existing regs as is second mid way through GCSC with no hope of proper exams.
5 Let it rip.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 22:02
  #16336 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Seeing the report that Ibiza, Menorca etc will shortly be going back on the Amber list as case numbers rise I canít help but think that, as immunity rises, the UK population - especially those under 30 - are increasingly a horde of Typhoid Marys with an embedded rate of asymptomatic Covid which they take with them wherever they go.

The result is, and will be till other rates of vaccination and natural immunity catch up, a roll call of destination going green, then Amber as their relatively unprotected populations succumb to the Delta variant.

I know itís the responsibility of the tourist destinations governments to balance tourism income and their economies against the risk, just as itís the UK governments just to view the risk the other way round. But it still feels we should take some responsibility and stay at home for holidays this year.
Orac
I would suggest Boris would love to keep people in the UK so that their cash does not get frittered away in foreign hotels bars etc. Just spend it at home please. By the way will he be in the Caribbean this coming winter ?
Cheers
Mr Mac
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 22:13
  #16337 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Indeed we probably should, however for some people a holiday is a higher priority than working, and listening to the (awful) Jeremy Vine show today holidays appear more important than a kid's education. Talk of things getting out of proportion! Also of course there is a little matter of the UK's commercial aviation industry, which if it continues to be constrained by onerous testing regimes, quarantining and the like may well cease to exist in its current size and form, and the UK will lose its pre-eminence in another industrial / commercial sector as the Germans, French and Dutch (to name but three) are busily getting back to something more akin to normal.
ATNotts
I have said on here before , the UK won a vaccine war but seems to be cocking up the peace. We have just rotated some staff through our UK operation and it is quite surprising how much controlled but easier going it appears to be here and in other countries as they perceive it. I have visited a number of EU countries and indeed Majorca recently and it does seem different in the UK in that some sections in UK society seem to be very convinced of their own special status and that rules and or common sense do not apply to them. This does not seem so common in Northern Europe , I dare say Wiggy and others could say how they are finding it in areas further south.

Kind regards
Mr Mac
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 23:05
  #16338 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Mac View Post
ATNotts
I have said on here before , the UK won a vaccine war but seems to be cocking up the peace. We have just rotated some staff through our UK operation and it is quite surprising how much controlled but easier going it appears to be here and in other countries as they perceive it. I have visited a number of EU countries and indeed Majorca recently and it does seem different in the UK in that some sections in UK society seem to be very convinced of their own special status and that rules and or common sense do not apply to them. This does not seem so common in Northern Europe , I dare say Wiggy and others could say how they are finding it in areas further south.

Kind regards
Mr Mac
I have flown all over the world over the last 12 months. As far as I can tell the U.K. is the only country in the world where you can decide if youíre exempt from mask wearing or not. Apart from the very obvious ďKarenísĒ in the USA. Iím not arguing for or against mask wearing. But I know several people whoíve suddenly taken to wearing a sunflower lanyard when I know physically there is absolutely nothing wrong with them. I personally find it an abuse of the original meaning of the sunflower lanyard. Then again being a self absorbed moron is a hidden disability.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 23:18
  #16339 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Mac View Post
Orac
I would suggest Boris would love to keep people in the UK so that their cash does not get frittered away in foreign hotels bars etc. Just spend it at home please. By the way will he be in the Caribbean this coming winter ?
Cheers
Mr Mac
I have heard this before. It is a fallacy. There is not the capacity for everyone in the UK to holiday at home. Whether border controls are relaxed or tightened makes no difference to the economy. They will be full either way.

I would suggest that the government would like to stick their head in the sand and go back 2 years and pretend covid never happened. People that think governments are trying to delay removing restrictions to control people are deluded.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 23:40
  #16340 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
I have heard this before. It is a fallacy. There is not the capacity for everyone in the UK to holiday at home. Whether border controls are relaxed or tightened makes no difference to the economy. They will be full either way.

I would suggest that the government would like to stick their head in the sand and go back 2 years and pretend covid never happened. People that think governments are trying to delay removing restrictions to control people are deluded.
i donít think the government give a monkeyís about where people do or do not holiday. Let them eat cake comes to mind. Unfortunately a populist was elected that is now out of ideas. In my personal living memory we have the worst cabal of senior cabinet members whoís only prerequisite for remaining in position was keeping in lockstep with the prime minister over brexit.

That plethora of yes men (and women) means that the U.K. now third worldwide for new cases.

how is it that a country that is 21st in population is consistently in the top 5 for everything Covid related.

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