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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 13th Jul 2021, 17:26
  #16301 (permalink)  
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My sister and brother-in-law have walked away from one of B-I-L's life-long friendships over the friend's conspiracy theorising and refusal to be vaccinated - I think the man's wife is likely to follow suit.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 17:40
  #16302 (permalink)  
 
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treadigraph
Not uncommon these days it seems. We have lost 2 friends over Brexit.

Cheers
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 19:47
  #16303 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by treadigraph View Post
My sister and brother-in-law have walked away from one of B-I-L's life-long friendships over the friend's conspiracy theorising and refusal to be vaccinated - I think the man's wife is likely to follow suit.
Really, really sad to hear that sort of thing......!! It just is not worth loosing friends in those circumstances... Agree to disagree!!
Just speaking on a personal note, I am very far from convinced that I needed to vaccinated. No whacky conspiracy theories just doubted I needed it. Anyway I have succumbed to Government propaganda & brainwashing.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 20:03
  #16304 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
And yet you come out with Modelling""....aka computer games, with about as much relevance...!!!

You may have heard it but did you pay attention to it or did you just discount it? Do you know anything about how mathematical models are created and refined? Since you discount models as being irrelevant, how do you propose to manage the complex logistical requirements of the pandemic without some form of model to help you predict requirements, manage resources and order supplies? Clearly you know all about it so share your wisdom - and that does not mean just regurgitating a diatribe against the early models.
I might respect your views if you supported them with a better reasoned argument rather than three exclamation marks!!! !

Listening, out.
Why do I have to provide a reasoned argument? I simply view so called "modelling" as some form mildly educated "guess work", also akin to computer games. . Many try to imbue it with some sort of scientific mystique. Much of it is based on the use of statistics and as many others before me have said you can prove anything the want with the judicious use of statistics...
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 20:06
  #16305 (permalink)  
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I think it's his nasty attitude from what I gleaned. I met him a few years ago and thought he seemed good company... Several of my friends disagree vehemently over Brexit (as I do with sis and b-i-l) but we haven't fallen out and still enjoy each other's company.

I do get thoroughly pissed off with one friend's constant dragging of politics into any conversation and refusal to listen to other points-of-view on any subject without interrupting - but it's his astonishingly unembarrassed ability to let other people pay for everything that makes me tend to avoid him these days and he's got at least double the pension income I have - typical bloody socialist!
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 20:38
  #16306 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
Really, really sad to hear that sort of thing......!! It just is not worth loosing friends in those circumstances... Agree to disagree!!
Just speaking on a personal note, I am very far from convinced that I needed to vaccinated. No whacky conspiracy theories just doubted I needed it. Anyway I have succumbed to Government propaganda & brainwashing.
It is hard, but I have lost mates over politics too. When one is willing to agree to disagree and the other side just won't, you have to move on somehow. When it is clear that someone is just a totally different person to you, has different values in life, and looks at things in a way that is the polar opposite to yourself you have to question what it is that makes you mates anymore.
I had a great friend, used to go on holiday with him often and we were good mates throughout school. Then I went off to uni and noticed when I came home to visit he was becoming more and more right-wing and extreme every time we met up. He would drag politics into anything and everything, ridicule others in our social circle for having different views, and not in a jokey way either. Eventually, other people in our circle decided he wasn't worth the time anymore as he just became a very unpleasant person to have a night out with. He would not accept other people's views of things and no matter what you did, every conversation would loop round to something political or conroversial, usually, he would find a way to insult us all too for being students. The friendship that once existed was long gone, there was no way to salvage it.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 20:56
  #16307 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
Why do I have to provide a reasoned argument? I simply view so called "modelling" as some form mildly educated "guess work", also akin to computer games. . Many try to imbue it with some sort of scientific mystique. Much of it is based on the use of statistics and as many others before me have said you can prove anything the want with the judicious use of statistics...
So you don’t know actually know much about about the design and refinement of mathematical models or come to that, computer games. it is just opinion not based on knowledge. Models are not used to prove anything by the judicious use of statistics, that is what politicians try to do, not scientists. I note you totally failed to even attempt the question I posed in my last post.

Some reading for you:
Mathematical Modelling
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/stories/c...rus-modelling/






Last edited by Ninthace; 13th Jul 2021 at 21:14.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 21:11
  #16308 (permalink)  
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All models are wrong, but some models are useful….

The most dangerous times are when models are used to purposes for which they were not originally designed with careful attention to their underlying premises.

The problem at the start of the pandemic are that the models used were designed around the characteristics of flu, as that was the expected type of virus and no one had any knowledge concerning the coronavirus. Hence the resultant wide discrepancy between the forecasts and the eventual outcomes in the first wave.

The models have been adapted and refined and have improved. However the varying effects of the different vaccines, the different uptake amongst communities and age groups, and the actual behaviour of people as against expectations mean that their outputs do vary considerably - as do their best, average and worst estimates and timescales.

It does seem to make decision making based upon them at best difficult.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 21:16
  #16309 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
All models are wrong, but some models are useful….
It is the nature of the beast. Better to say not entirely accurate or even sometimes not very accurate depending on the system being modelled. The ones that keep aeroplanes up are pretty good these days.
It is easy to knock the COVID models but they have improved as the data becomes refined but anything that involves human behaviour will have an error (thank god). They gave us a ball park for planning and it is now down to a bowling green.

The lifting of restrictions however may put us back to ball park as we have less data about an unrestricted wave.

Last edited by Ninthace; 13th Jul 2021 at 21:40.
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Old 13th Jul 2021, 21:26
  #16310 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
Really, really sad to hear that sort of thing......!! It just is not worth loosing friends in those circumstances... Agree to disagree!!
Just speaking on a personal note, I am very far from convinced that I needed to vaccinated. No whacky conspiracy theories just doubted I needed it. Anyway I have succumbed to Government propaganda & brainwashing.
Well if this is the government's attempt at brainwashing and propaganda, they aren't very good at it! Inconsistent messages; policies; u-turns; lack of clarity; oversimplification of the messages (iow treating people like idiots); faux respect and trust messages, when they know that there are a lot of idiots who just don't get it or care; saying their policy is led by the science, when it was from the outset, and continues to be, driven strongly by ad hoc "theory" (herd immunity!),political and economic considerations.

I think you are right about agreeing to disagree at least: And that is what the people in the examples have done - the person who values their opinion and freedom of choice above the wealth of good information is welcome to enjoy their point of view - outside the group.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 06:14
  #16311 (permalink)  
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 09:00
  #16312 (permalink)  
 
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Covid Outbreak on HMS Queen Elizabeth

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57830617

Given that all the crew have been double vaccinated, and assuming that all of them had received the 2nd dose 14+ days ago this is clearly worrying since it must be quite a substantial percentage of the crew on board one ship. Moreover, we are assured that social distancing measures were being enforced on the ship.

It may well be that many, perhaps most cases are asymptomatic, and that those who have contracted symptomatic infection have only a mild illness, but it does underline, if anyone was in any doubt, that these vaccinations (and we assume they had either Pfizer or Moderna given the likely age profile of the crew) are no silver bullet, and if anything reemphasizes just how short sighted the English government's policy on "freedom day" actually is. More caution was / is required, and I fear it won't be long before Johnson is going to have to do some rather awkward backtracking.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 10:01
  #16313 (permalink)  
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It may well be that many, perhaps most cases are asymptomatic, and that those who have contracted symptomatic infection have only a mild illness,
From the reports I have read they are all asymptomatic and only picked up during now routine testing.

Not a problem for the crew, but it does make it problematic for port visits.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 10:10
  #16314 (permalink)  
 
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oversimplification of the messages (iow treating people like idiots); faux respect and trust messages, when they know that there are a lot of idiots who just don't get it or care
So basically if the government treat you like an idiot they are wrong, and if they don't they are wong? Makes me think they are closer to the mark wth the first one...
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 10:52
  #16315 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Covid Outbreak on HMS Queen Elizabeth

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57830617

Given that all the crew have been double vaccinated, and assuming that all of them had received the 2nd dose 14+ days ago this is clearly worrying since it must be quite a substantial percentage of the crew on board one ship. Moreover, we are assured that social distancing measures were being enforced on the ship.

It may well be that many, perhaps most cases are asymptomatic, and that those who have contracted symptomatic infection have only a mild illness, but it does underline, if anyone was in any doubt, that these vaccinations (and we assume they had either Pfizer or Moderna given the likely age profile of the crew) are no silver bullet, and if anything reemphasizes just how short sighted the English government's policy on "freedom day" actually is. More caution was / is required, and I fear it won't be long before Johnson is going to have to do some rather awkward backtracking.
Being double vaccinated does not stop you being positive for Covid. It seems that while the antibodies are in your blood stream but there is nothing to stop the virus setting up home in the nasal mucosa where they will not see a lot of antibodies. You may not necessarily get sick, but a swab will pick the virus up.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 10:56
  #16316 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
The current wave is the first "natural" wave we have seen during the pandemic, i.e. few countermeasures. It will climb quite sharply and probably have quite a high maximum for a wave at this stage in a pandemic but the tail could be quite extended. Vaccines will affect the height of the hospitalisations and deaths curves but as any devotee of calculus will tell you, it is the integral that matters when it comes to totals. An extended curve could still mean significant numbers of victims but a low peak would decrease the risk of medical facilities being overwhelmed.
If the wave peaks, it means the R dropped to 1 and it's still going down, as less and less people are susceptible to being infected. In other words, you've just reached the herd immunity threshold. As you said, what normally follows after that is a long tail that could still cause a lot of casualties. In theory a couple of weeks of lockdown just after reaching that peak could shorten that tail significantly. Then, when the number of active cases gets really low and if the R is still under 1, ending the lockdown won't cause any rise in cases.

But I'm guessing few countries will have the courage to even open the discussion about more lockdowns. I mean, you could probably sell a "last lockdown before complete freedom" in some countries. But no one can guarantee a new wave won't come in the future if conditions change (people's immunity dropping, new variants emerging, etc).

Here in Romania, we seem to have reached herd immunity, mostly through people getting the virus this winter, and partially through the vaccinations, although only 25% have been vaccinated so far and even reaching 30% before this fall seems optimistic at the moment. So far, we had two big waves, one peaking in November-December, and one in March-April.

At the beginning of April, just as the second wave was peaking and the ICU departments were overwhelmed, the experts advised the government that "A lockdown at this point would do wonders.". They were almost universally derided for saying that, and no lockdowns were introduced. After reaching the peak, obviously, the number of cases started to go down. So, everyone started patting themselves on the back, saying "See? We didn't need a lockdown after all, those experts were crazy."

What we experienced since then has been the long tail you were mentioning. We had about 8,000 excess deaths in April, and 3,700 in May, bringing the total for the pandemic to about 63,000 for a population of about 19 million. June statistics are not available yet. Now in July we are down to just one or two deaths daily, and almost no new cases in most regions of the country. But, if we would have listened to those experts and had a lockdown in April, we might have avoided most of the excess deaths from April and May. Basically, we would have cut that long tail. We did not. And I'm not sure it was worth it.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 11:47
  #16317 (permalink)  
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https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/1558...r-weeks-green/

Ibiza, Majorca and Menorca set to go back on amber list – just 2 weeks after going green

Ibiza, Mallorca and Menorca are on the cusp of going back on the amber list, just weeks after being declared covid safe.

Thousands of youngsters who aren't fully vaccinated will have to isolate for ten days after returning from their 18-30s break following a surge in cases.

The popular Spanish islands were only added to the green watch list three weeks ago - but travellers were warned that they could drop back to amber at any moment.

A final decision on the latest update to the traffic light system is set to be approved by ministers on Wednesday. But under new rules coming in next week, double-jabbed Brits will still be able to take advantage of the holiday destinations without the need to quarantine on return.

Cases on the islands have soared to 258 cases per 100,000 people. It could mean a mad dash to get home for younger holiday-makers who have not yet received both doses of the vaccine.

A source said: “It’s all still up for discussion, but the figures aren’t great which is why it was on the watch list in the first place.”

Double-jabbed Brits coming back after the switch will not have to isolate, but will still need to take a test before their return to the UK, and on the second day after getting home….
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 11:58
  #16318 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
Being double vaccinated does not stop you being positive for Covid. It seems that while the antibodies are in your blood stream but there is nothing to stop the virus setting up home in the nasal mucosa where they will not see a lot of antibodies. You may not necessarily get sick, but a swab will pick the virus up.
I absolutely appreciate that, but many people do feel they are invincible having been double vaccinated, and whilst in terms of not become particularly ill they may be right to do so, however in terms of passing the virus on to those who haven't been vaccinated or to those who for medical reasons can't be, or have very poor immune systems vaccination may be far less effective.

With regard to the "natural" wave of covid-19 that the UK now appears, or very soon will appear to be experiencing, the question is how long will it take to peak, and how long after the peak can we expect to see "herd immunity" in the UK? I'm sure the government is hoping, or betting on it being reach somewhere around mid to end of September so that the nonsense of "freshers weeks" without covid restrictions can go ahead without causing a massive overload on hospitals, not through students stupidity, but through them passing the virus on vulnerable groups, the old (stupid) unvaccinated cohort and those who were vaccinated earlier in the programme, and who's immunity may be starting to wain.

This experiment, for that is what it surely is, a tremendous risk, not only from a public health perspective, but also for the government, from a political one.
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 12:00
  #16319 (permalink)  
 
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Ibiza, Majorca and Menorca set to go back on amber list – just 2 weeks after going green
Listening to Shapps on BBC Breakfast this morning trying his hardest not to answer direct questions about the Balearics I'd say them going on the amber list is pretty well nailed on. Might make visiting Ibiza in the height of summer, for those of use fully vaccinated a half pleasant experience without the British (and other) riff-raff puking in the streets and being generally obnoxious!!
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Old 14th Jul 2021, 12:11
  #16320 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I absolutely appreciate that, but many people do feel they are invincible having been double vaccinated, and whilst in terms of not become particularly ill they may be right to do so, however in terms of passing the virus on to those who haven't been vaccinated or to those who for medical reasons can't be, or have very poor immune systems vaccination may be far less effective.

With regard to the "natural" wave of covid-19 that the UK now appears, or very soon will appear to be experiencing, the question is how long will it take to peak, and how long after the peak can we expect to see "herd immunity" in the UK? I'm sure the government is hoping, or betting on it being reach somewhere around mid to end of September so that the nonsense of "freshers weeks" without covid restrictions can go ahead without causing a massive overload on hospitals, not through students stupidity, but through them passing the virus on vulnerable groups, the old (stupid) unvaccinated cohort and those who were vaccinated earlier in the programme, and who's immunity may be starting to wain.

This experiment, for that is what it surely is, a tremendous risk, not only from a public health perspective, but also for the government, from a political one.
I think the money is on a peak in early August and a 6 to 9 week tail. As to herd immunity, no idea, it may not even happen. One possible outcome of letting a big wave run through a population of mixed vaccine status is the emergence of a vaccine resistant variant and we start all over. It is without question a giant experiment with fingers crossed for a successful outcome.
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