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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 8th May 2021, 23:50
  #15441 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
That's the UK criteria (first vaccinations). Where Germany is doing particularly well is 2nd vaccinations, as of yesterday 7.5 million people fully vaccinated. UK figure is now 16.5 million, still well ahead of Germany but they're catching the UK up quite fast now. I understand that France is doing pretty well after an abysmal start, but I don't tend to look at French figures as my French isn't up to scratch.
If you are talking absolute numbers, then yes, you could say it's doing well. But if you look at it as a percentage of the population, Germany is in fact not doing well at all for 2nd vaccinations, being among the last in the EU by that criteria:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...RV~LTU~SVN~LVA

But, personally, I prefer to look mostly at the first vaccinations when comparing countries, because the eficacy is quite high even after the first dose, something like 75%-80% for the mRNA vaccines. Also, the people that got the first shot will most likely get the second as well, so it's only a matter of time before the two statistics converge.
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Old 9th May 2021, 01:16
  #15442 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I understand that France is doing pretty well after an abysmal start, but I don't tend to look at French figures as my French isn't up to scratch.
Yep, the diesel engine has finally got up to speed.

FWIW, latest French figures, cease work 7th May:

Over 17 million have received at least one jab (26.16% of the population).
Over 8 million have received Two.(12.12% of the total population).

Pfizer probably accounts roughly for about 75% of the jabs given.

Daily vaccination rate has been climbing..

Just over 603k vaccinated across the country on Thursday.
Just over 612k vaccinated across the country on Friday.

Still problems getting appointments in rural areas with local Docs/pharmacies/small town clinics but if you're prepared to drive to the big city slots can be found at the large vaccination centres if you get on line at the right time, and they do get grabbed quickly - there's not much sign of the supposed French resistance to being vaccinated, so far at least.

https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/

Last edited by wiggy; 9th May 2021 at 01:31.
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Old 9th May 2021, 08:04
  #15443 (permalink)  
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Creepy - Indian Covid induced Black Fungus……

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/82482209.cms

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Old 10th May 2021, 05:25
  #15444 (permalink)  
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Academic knives coming out as infighting starts prior to any Covid inquiry….

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...et-it-so-wrong

How did Sage get it so wrong?
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Old 10th May 2021, 06:03
  #15445 (permalink)  
 
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They are all going to scurry for cover. Politicians saying "we followed the science" SAGE saying " its a political decision".

The scientific failure was SAGE recommending scientific advice that was not peer reviewed. The political failure was the opposition and sceptical MP's allowing the executive to rule by decree by passing the coronavirus act in one day and allowing the erosion of civil liberty.
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Old 11th May 2021, 13:01
  #15446 (permalink)  
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-suggests.html

Chris Whitty warns Indian Covid variant could be MORE transmissible than dominant Kent strain as data shows mutant virus is behind almost HALF of all cases in London

India's coronavirus variant could be more transmissible than Britain's currently dominant Kent strain, Professor Chris Whitty warned tonight as fears continue to grow over the mutated virus.

Public Health England data show the variant of concern — scientifically called B.1.617.2 — makes up between 40 per cent and half of all cases detected in London.

There is no evidence it will cause worse disease or make vaccines less effective. But addressing the nation in a Downing Street press conference tonight, England's chief medical officer warned it must be monitored in case it turns out to be more dangerous.

Professor Whitty said: 'What we know with all the variants is that things can come out of a blue sky — you're not expecting it and then something happens.

'That is what happened with B.1.1.7 (which is commonly called the Kent variant and is currently dominant in Britain) and that has happened to India with this variant as well. I think our view is that this is a highly transmissible variant, at least as transmissible as the B.1.1.7 variant. It is possible it is more transmissible but we'll have to see.'

Data suggests the Kent variant is about 50 per cent more infectious than the original coronavirus type.

He added: 'At this point in time, our view is that it is less likely to be able to escape vaccination than some of the other variants, particularly the South African one. But the data are not properly in there, so I think we need to be cautious until we've seen clear data that gives us an answer one way or the other.'…..
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Old 12th May 2021, 08:58
  #15447 (permalink)  
 
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In Hungary 6.9 million doses given, 26% of population have had both doses, motoring pretty well at > 100,000 / day.
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Old 13th May 2021, 08:22
  #15448 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Expatrick View Post
In Hungary 6.9 million doses given, 26% of population have had both doses, motoring pretty well at > 100,000 / day.
I believe that Hungary's principal vaccine is Sputnik V? Looking at the sharp falls in daily new cases in the country over the last couple of months it would appear to validate the efficacy of the Russian vaccine.
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Old 13th May 2021, 08:53
  #15449 (permalink)  
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I believe that Hungary's principal vaccine is Sputnik V? Looking at the sharp falls in daily new cases in the country over the last couple of months it would appear to validate the efficacy of the Russian vaccine.
Hungary has approved 7 vaccines, but the two main ones in use are Sinopharm and Pfizer.

Reports on the effectiveness of Sinopharm vary, with reports of very low protection after one dose, especially in light of the experience in Chile and the UAE.

https://hungarytoday.hu/pfizer-vacci...y-coronavirus/

https://hungarytoday.hu/1-2-million-...ve-in-hungary/

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n969

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...high-tj9fwz60z


Confidence in Chinese coronavirus vaccine falls as UAE Covid cases remain high

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1023
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Old 13th May 2021, 09:18
  #15450 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I believe that Hungary's principal vaccine is Sputnik V? Looking at the sharp falls in daily new cases in the country over the last couple of months it would appear to validate the efficacy of the Russian vaccine.
I don't know personally anybody who has had the Sputnik but when I went for my second Pfizer the vaccination centre was doing Pfizer, Sputnik & Moderna. My Wife has had the AZ and friends have had the Moderna or Pfizer.
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Old 13th May 2021, 14:28
  #15451 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Expatrick View Post
I don't know personally anybody who has had the Sputnik but when I went for my second Pfizer the vaccination centre was doing Pfizer, Sputnik & Moderna. My Wife has had the AZ and friends have had the Moderna or Pfizer.
Clearly my information on Sputnik V was incorrect, but it does appear as though the efficient roll out of vaccinations in Hungary is certainly impacting case numbers since the graph of daily news cases closely resembles Israel, and the UK, both of which are leaders in global vaccination.
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Old 13th May 2021, 14:39
  #15452 (permalink)  
 
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Reading the tea leaves in UK it is looking increasing likely that the UK roadmap out of the restrictions is going to suffer some delay, if not even a diversion. The "Indian" variant is clearly out of control in parts of the UK. The rush back, particularly from Pakistan when that country was placed on the UK hotel quarantine list has likely fuelled the spread of the new variant in UK, and it is, predictable popping up in other Asian British areas on England, such as Leicester, Bedford and West London. Given the poor housing conditions in which many of these people live, and the multigenerational nature of households the current trajectory on which we are now seemingly set was hardly surprising.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ester-57100049

The outbreak in Erewash, Derbyshire, which happens to be the neighbouring borough to where I am domiciled came about as a result of a large outbreak in a secondary school (Wilsthorpe) which can only have got out of hand by of a combination of poor hygiene and probably a lack of compulsion on behalf of the school management to enforce mask wearing. This highlights just how stupid and short sighted it is of government to relax the mask wearing rules (or is it guidelines) within secondary schools.

Just when things were starting to look up, it looks as though the UK, or at least parts of it, are going to get a rude awakening and a sharp kick in the proverbial nuts.
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Old 13th May 2021, 15:19
  #15453 (permalink)  
 
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Apparently here in Bedford there has been a significant outbreak associated with a party held by students at a local academy.
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Old 13th May 2021, 15:29
  #15454 (permalink)  
 
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Which leads me to the observation that the SAGE goal posts will be moved a bit further to the right. More anti lockdown marches will take place without being reported by the BBC who will be pouring out project fear. Boris will impose some sort of tier system ( not a lockdown) and more hospitality and tourism companies will be bankrupted. While NHS waiting lists increase. Covid hospitalisations and deaths decrease and NHS ICU's are not busy with covid patients.

Then comes Autumn and we lockdown in anger for seasonal covid/flu considerations.
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Old 13th May 2021, 16:39
  #15455 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Clearly my information on Sputnik V was incorrect, but it does appear as though the efficient roll out of vaccinations in Hungary is certainly impacting case numbers since the graph of daily news cases closely resembles Israel, and the UK, both of which are leaders in global vaccination.
In terms of doses distributed to Hungary, the Sputnik is no 3 by volume, after Pfizer (no 1) and the Chinese vaccine.
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Old 14th May 2021, 07:53
  #15456 (permalink)  
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Just a recognition of reality.

There was an interview with a local shopkeeper in one of the worst areas who admitted that the locals ignored any precautions. They didn’t wear masks and moved freely across households during both Ramadan and the Eid festival between large multigenerational households.

In such circumstances, whilst it might be seen as queue jumping to some, accelerating vaccination seems a solution. Not sure of the value of reimposing restrictions if the locals will ignore them and the police won’t enforce them.

The down side being it will take at least two weeks for the first jab to provide any protection and another 5-6 weeks before a second dose is given and takes effect.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inister-admits

Call for ‘surge vaccinations’ as UK cases of India variant double

Ministers are under growing pressure to deploy “surge vaccinations” in Covid hotspots, with some local authorities pushing to extend the offer of jabs to over-18s to stop the spread of a coronavirus variant…..

On Thursday night multiple sources suggested the government was poised to approve a targeted vaccine programme for the over-16s in the worst affected wards in Bolton and Blackburn.

“This might be all adults in multi-generational households; all adults from 16 upwards in a particular geography where there is high enduring transmission, low compliance/engagement with test/trace/isolation and lower vaccine uptake in the existing Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation priority groups; or all adults in a broader geography,” said one public health source.

A statement from the Department of Health and Social Care on Thursday night said that ministers were considering bringing people’s second doses forward.

The statement also warned: “We cannot rule out re-imposing economic and social restrictions at a local or regional level if evidence suggests they are necessary to contain or suppress a variant which escapes the vaccine.”

There was confusion earlier on Thursday when Blackburn with Darwen council said that all over-18s living in the district would be able to book a vaccine from next week – the age level being well below the official NHS England cut-off of 38.

The council then made a U-turn, saying its local rollout would continue in line with the national one.

But a senior source in Blackburn said vaccines would be available to all adults in the three worst-affected wards, with 3,000 extra doses of the Moderna vaccine secured by the local health team.

Last edited by ORAC; 14th May 2021 at 10:11.
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Old 14th May 2021, 10:00
  #15457 (permalink)  
 
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At the risk of stating the obvious. If the cultural considerations of these multi generational households threatens a public health situation then instead of punishing the majority surely this small minority should be managed. This should also be a time to remind said minority that masks are not only for woman and traditional cures are at best unhygenic. Cultural sensitivities should not take precedence. Education is the key however the " inshallah" mentality will always trump common sense and best practice. It could also be an apt time to remind some people that we live in a secular society and all lives have worth.

As for the bodies floating down rivers in India story. Traditional practice. Holy men, pregnant women, people with leprosy or chicken pox, people bitten by snakes, those who commit suicide, the poor and children below five years old are not cremated but floated in the water to decompose. Hindus believe the dead will not attain salvation if the last remains are not immersed.

independent.co.uk/asia/india/india-covid-cow-dung-cure-b1845507.htm

pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/immunology-and-vaccines/covid-19-vaccine-rates-lower-among-ethnic-minorities-disabled-people-and-in-deprived-areas/

independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/child-sex-grooming-asian-question-7729068.html

Last edited by Douglas Bahada; 14th May 2021 at 11:35.
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Old 14th May 2021, 10:04
  #15458 (permalink)  
 
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The Cultural stuff is an interesting problem. Should cultural sensitivity over-ride protection of others in the population?

There are large groups of anti-vaxxers who have a particular background. One just said to me that they do not like the "authorities" and will carry on not being vaccinated.
At what point does society say this is not acceptable??

I have no idea!
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Old 14th May 2021, 11:30
  #15459 (permalink)  
 
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Douglas Bahada:-

Problem is that is the UK was prepared to relax regulations, stupidly in my opinion, over Christmas, then the government could hardly have stopped Muslims, Jews, Hindus, etc from celebrating their principal religious festivals, which are inevitably family gatherings.

The "Indian" cat was well and truly out of the bag when several chartered flights were allowed back to UK from Pakistan ahead of the country going on the UK hotel quarantine list. These returnees would, I am sure (?) have followed instruction and self quarantined at home, but home very likely consists pf three generation, possibly 10 plus people crammed into a 3/4 bedroom house, so the potential for infection within the household was always going to be great, and then of course, those household members that hadn't just returned from Pakistan would carry on with their lives regardless (no one asked them to self isolate) and spread any new infection through the community.

We can only be glad that LHR banned extra flights from India ahead of that country going on the red list, but still there were3/4 days leeway for returnees, again during which time the Indian variant will have arrived and spread.

All this is what makes controlling a pandemic in a global world so difficult, possibly impossible.
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Old 14th May 2021, 11:30
  #15460 (permalink)  
 
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It could also be an apt time to remind some people that we live in a secular society and all lives have worth.
Unfortunately, unlike La France we do not live in a secular society. Our Head of State is the Defender of the Faith, being the Church of England and many of said church are part of our Upper House of the legislature
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