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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 20th Mar 2021, 07:21
  #14821 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
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Orac
There was an interesting interview with an Indian Doctor on Radio 4 yesterday (Today program, you may have heard it) who was talking about the Indian Pharmaceutical industry, who are manufacturing the Oxford vaccine. He said that they are having issues manufacturing it now, not because of the EU, but due to issue with supply from the US of some critical components required in the process, due to restrictions being put in place there on the export of said components by the US Govt.

Perhaps you would like to direct some attention to this rather than banging on about the French etc

Cheers
Mr Mac
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 07:37
  #14822 (permalink)  
 
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Mr Mac,

You have to remember that anything European, especially related to the EU or an EU member is bad, whereas we can ignore the US and India, the former for their ban on vaccine exports, and India that also needs to balance export with home requirements.

Meanwhile the EU continues to export vaccine.

The whole narrative is becoming far too political and worse, nationalistic.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 07:42
  #14823 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/s...ease-m6rbrcnvq

Summer breaks abroad will be put on ice until Covid infections ease

Boris Johnson is determined to take a “precautionary” approach to reopening quarantine-free travel in response to rising numbers of infections across Europe.

The prime minister set May 17 as the earliest possible date last month for people to travel abroad without the need to self-isolate. After cases rose in countries such as France and Spain, however, government figures believe that the timescale is unrealistic and restrictions will need to stay into summer.

A source said that no decisions would be made until at least next month but Johnson was determined to take a “precautionary” approach to reopening to avoid exposing Britain to more cases.

A source said: “In May we are still going to have a significant proportion of the population who have not been vaccinated and of course children won’t be vaccinated either. The idea that travel is suddenly going to open up in May is becoming less and less realistic.”.......
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 08:19
  #14824 (permalink)  
 
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This was always going to happen considering the epidemiological situation in Europe. I don't think it's going to be realistic to expect overseas leisure travel until at least June 1st.

But, when does this end? India for example are only going to be able to vaccinate a quarter of their population this year. Africa is going to be massively under protected until at least 2022. Certain governments are also going to give the virus maximum opportunity to mutate.

I just think the UK government roadmap is on a collision course for another lockdown in October... again despite the whole population being vaccinated.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 08:22
  #14825 (permalink)  
 
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Looking further afield, this approach is sensible, but seen as politically challenging. This attitude is simply unsustainable longer term...

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...ntine-14436878

NZ won't open to Australia, despite no virus and won't open to Singapore, despite no virus.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 08:30
  #14826 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
This was always going to happen considering the epidemiological situation in Europe. I don't think it's going to be realistic to expect overseas leisure travel until at least June 1st.

But, when does this end? India for example are only going to be able to vaccinate a quarter of their population this year. Africa is going to be massively under protected until at least 2022. Certain governments are also going to give the virus maximum opportunity to mutate.

I just think the UK government roadmap is on a collision course for another lockdown in October... again despite the whole population being vaccinated.
My bet is on things getting out of hand once again in UK by mid May, one of our local secondary schools is already rife with covid cases - a case of the more you test the more you find I suggest, and still non essential retail and entertainment / pubs haven't reopened. Scotland's new case figures, according to the ONS CIS survey are on the rise, probably in part courtesy of Neanderthal supporters of Rangers FC.

As for later in the year, we're just going to have to accept that first, this virus isn't going away, we're stuck with it, and second, that we are all, including BAMEs and the disadvantaged, are going to have to have their vaccine boosters every 6 months or so unless or until the virus becomes less virulent.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 08:43
  #14827 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
My bet is on things getting out of hand once again in UK by mid May, one of our local secondary schools is already rife with covid cases - a case of the more you test the more you find I suggest, and still non essential retail and entertainment / pubs haven't reopened. Scotland's new case figures, according to the ONS CIS survey are on the rise, probably in part courtesy of Neanderthal supporters of Rangers FC.

As for later in the year, we're just going to have to accept that first, this virus isn't going away, we're stuck with it, and second, that we are all, including BAMEs and the disadvantaged, are going to have to have their vaccine boosters every 6 months or so unless or until the virus becomes less virulent.
I don't think this is going to be the case at all. There is no evidence outdoor gatherings such as protests, celebrations, going to the beach had any impact on the rise of cases last year.

We were doing up to 1.6m tests last week and the case positivity rate and crucially hospitalisations have continued to fall.

I will be getting my first vaccine next week. Half of the adult population have also had at least one dose. This has to be the way out... period.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 09:15
  #14828 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 View Post
I don't think this is going to be the case at all. There is no evidence outdoor gatherings such as protests, celebrations, going to the beach had any impact on the rise of cases last year.

We were doing up to 1.6m tests last week and the case positivity rate and crucially hospitalisations have continued to fall.

I will be getting my first vaccine next week. Half of the adult population have also had at least one dose. This has to be the way out... period.
I too predict lockdown 4 sometime in early May. Once households start mixing at the end of March followed by non essential shops opening on April 12 followed by 3 weeks to get everything moving and there you have it. We shall see how effective the vaccine is at this point in reducing hospitalisation. As this would be the sole factor for lockdown. I just don’t think we are quite there yet in terms of numbers, but hope to be proved wrong.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 09:17
  #14829 (permalink)  
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Perhaps you would like to direct some attention to this rather than banging on about the French etc

Cheers
Mr Mac
I report what is being said in the media.

For example, in the last 5 minutes, the news on BBC R5L has reported Professor John Bell, a member of SAGE, as calling the French policy regarding the AZ vaccine as being “crackers”.

Regarding India. Sky News yesterday had an Indian expert complaining that, despite reports to the contrary, Indian was still exporting AZ and had sent over 90m doses to other Asian countries. The delay in deliveries to the UK being due to technical issues and having to meet their Indian contract requirements - not due to government restrictions.

Exactly the same case as made by the Company regarding UK production being prioritised to meet their NHS contract ahead of that of the EU.

The USA, however, has an export ban...

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSL8N2L9384
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 09:24
  #14830 (permalink)  
 
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I think you are being too pessimistic about the short term outlook. Having seen out two surges there will be confidence that should the situation get worse measures similar to those already deployed will rein it in. So bad headlines from your political opponents but hey ho. The big risk to our equilibrium and particularly to the stock market is the possibility of a mutation which negates the vaccines. I think this is being underestimated in our mood of self congratulation and it's a risk which isn't going to go away.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 09:27
  #14831 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect that Europe might be quite surprised.

The Pfizer factory, whose production they are trying to retain within the EU, relies on imports for some of the key elements.

I am no bio-chemist, but the politicians need to examine the whole supply chain to Pfizer.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 09:41
  #14832 (permalink)  
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AO, see below. However I doubt the UK would even attempt to do so. They would lose the moral high Ground in doing so.

Regardless, the percentage of Pfizer doses being given in the UK is falling sharply with those stockpiled reserved for second doses to back up those already given - meanwhile other vaccines, such as that from Novavax made on Teeside, are due to start mass production and delivery in the next couple of weeks.

17m million Moderna does are also due to arrive during the next month.

https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/moderna-...hortage-919395



The Pfizer factory, whose production they are trying to retain within the EU, relies on imports for some of the key elements.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-exports.html

Pfizer warns UK could hit back over EU threat to block vaccine exports
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 09:47
  #14833 (permalink)  
 
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I want my lipids back.............
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 10:14
  #14834 (permalink)  
 
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Douglas Bahada : Right on. I don't like emojis as a means of expression but I have thumbs up with a smile on my chops.

Danny, at least you see that the dross over gatherings has shown to be, just that, yet you still line up to take the jab (?) Only way out ? Scenario other side of the exit door is pretty grim too.. But, as I have long said, your choice. I respect that entirely. Others should be respected for other choices too.

Despite always getting colds & flu (no not the panadol ), I have never had the winter flu jab. My choice. I stay careful in the flu season.

Those lining up for this fiasco in order to regain freedoms ( what, back to the pubs, two weeks in Madjorka, seen as priorities (?) ) are the ones, duped, but I feel ever so sorry for..

ATN is also correct in seeing that increased testing leads to increased cases.. Again, sorry, but I have also been saying that for over a year. That bit has always been the 'no -brainer', not the damn silly jingles like ; ' No jab-no job. Jab'N go' preached by real 'no-brainers '.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 10:21
  #14835 (permalink)  
 
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Dannyboy39:
NZ won't open to Australia, despite no virus and won't open to Singapore, despite no virus.
This is a real case of winner's curse. If you are Covid-free, like NZ, then you will have to stay locked up as opposed to locked down more or less forever. Just one case can lock down over a million people in Auckland.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 11:21
  #14836 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Landflap View Post
Danny, at least you see that the dross over gatherings has shown to be, just that, yet you still line up to take the jab (?) Only way out ? Scenario other side of the exit door is pretty grim too.. But, as I have long said, your choice. I respect that entirely. Others should be respected for other choices too..
Sorry, this is tosh. The vaccine is vitally important - if the majority of people and the most vulnerable supposedly protected, it has to be a ticket to freedom. We cannot have a situation in late September when 95% of the vaccine programme is complete in the UK that there is talk of a further lockdown to reduce cases ("protect the NHS"). As above, it'll take 2 years to vaccinate the whole globe. Covid will take a number of seasons to irradiate completely or come to a situation where it weakens so much, it isn't threatening at all. Right now, it is endemic globally.

Those who refuse the vaccine for ludicrous reasons - whether it be government mistrust or they just don't want to do it, is in my opinion, pretty selfish. What cannot happen is that there are pockets of the country that have large numbers of Covid still circulating and then mutating and putting potentially everyone else at risk.

A member of SAGE this morning has said that European summer holidays are "extremely unlikely" - I really don't see how he can say such a thing.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 12:08
  #14837 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Landflap View Post
Despite always getting colds & flu (no not the panadol ), I have never had the winter flu jab. My choice. I stay careful in the flu season.
Errr . . . so you mean "staying careful" hasn't worked for you??? As you are "always getting flu"? Wouldn't you prefer not to get flu?

In the past few years I've always had the winter flu jab and enjoyed always NOT getting flu. Haven't had flu once since I started getting the jab each year.

Yes - I know the influenza vaccine isn't completely effective - but a couple of years back it enabled me to spend weeks visting someone regularly in a hospital ward full of laboratory confirmed influenza cases - without catching it.
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 12:40
  #14838 (permalink)  
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Tokyo 2021: Japan bans foreign fans from Olympic games due to COVID-19 risks

The delayed Tokyo Olympics will be held without foreign fans and volunteers, the organising committee have decided.

The Games, which were postponed from last year due to coronavirus, are scheduled to open on 23 July to 8 August. The Paralympics are due to follow from 25 August to 5 September.

The decision was made by the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Organising Committee following group talks with the International Olympic Committee (IOC), local organisers, the Japanesegovernment, the Tokyo metropolitan government and the International Paralympic Committee.

Ticket holders from overseas will be able to apply for refunds for both Olympic and Paralympic ticket purchases, however costs for cancelled hotel bookings will not be covered, Tokyo Organising Committee CEO Toshiro Muto confirmed.....
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 14:17
  #14839 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Economics101 View Post
Dannyboy39:

This is a real case of winner's curse. If you are Covid-free, like NZ, then you will have to stay locked up as opposed to locked down more or less forever. Just one case can lock down over a million people in Auckland.
Thats too true. This virus will eventually infect almost everyone world wide. NZ and Australia are just delaying the inevitable. There will always be ways to perish. This one is particularly harsh on the aged,infirm, and the obese. Thats why it has hit the first world hard.

l think if those who are vaccinated or not at risk are denied travel and liberty this will be a summer of riots and disorder. Lockdown is not being observed by many and the police are uncomfortable policing it.

We have been lied to time and time again. I am law abiding and respect authority but l have reached a tipping point with this erosion of my liberty by confused,illogical and flip flopping political posturing policy. Where is the opposition when you need it?
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Old 20th Mar 2021, 14:58
  #14840 (permalink)  
 
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Covid: Summer holidays abroad 'unlikely', warns government adviser https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56467813
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