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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 13th Jan 2021, 22:48
  #13021 (permalink)  
 
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The Grauniad and accurate data is a bit like BA and IT.
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Old 13th Jan 2021, 23:10
  #13022 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Curious Pax View Post
The ONS data for Covid on the death certificate only goes up to Jan 3rd. If you add on the daily death numbers announced since then (which use the test within 28 days criteria) since that date then around 100,000 is about right. As the rule of thumb is that the ONS numbers are usually a bit higher then by the time they cover up to today’s date then it will be over 100k.
You are right, although when you hover over them on the official site it's apparently even worse than that, with only up to Jan 1st for the death certificate data, compared to Jan 13th for the "28 days since positive" data. So, there are 12 days missing for the death certificate data:




Apparently, the Guardian used the daily numbers from the "28 days since positive" data set to estimate the deaths from those 12 days missing from the "death certificate" data set, according to their explanation under the chart:

Guardian graphic. Source: ONS, NRS, NISRA and coronavirus.data.gov.uk * Latest statistical agency figures plus deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death occurring since the last statistical report as per the government dashboard. The sum of the deaths by date of death per nation is slightly lower than the count of date of death reported

The 28 days cumulative official number on the 13th was 84,767, and on Jan 1st was 74,168, the difference is 10,599. If we add that difference to the 89,243 number from January 1st, we get 99,842, which is close enough to the Guardian numbers.
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Old 13th Jan 2021, 23:17
  #13023 (permalink)  
 
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The snag is that the ONS death certificate mention method will almost certainly over-estimate the true number of Covid-19 deaths. It's why the decision was made in May 2020 to change the criteria, following a lot of criticism that allowing Covid-19 to be put on a death certificate, with no proof that the person had ever had Covid-19, wasn't a very good way to record data. I fail to understand why the ONS are still using this method, especially given the justifiable criticism it has attracted.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 09:13
  #13024 (permalink)  
 
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Itís alright for some.

Over-50s rush to book holidays as vaccine boosts confidence https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55654127

I posted on this thread a while back about the wisdom of vaccinating elderly people first and making the younger members of society wait longer.

My thoughts were that getting people who do not have guaranteed income back to work so they donít lose their homes and livelihoods should be the priority.

Now I understand the rationale behind starting with the oldest people in order to protect the NHS.

I do worry, though, that articles such as the one attached will cause some resentment amongst young families who have to sit and watch their lives fall apart whilst the older generations get their lives back and continue to enjoy spending their pensions.

I am being a little inflammatory and Iím not saying I disagree with the governmentís plans or with the right of retired people to enjoy their hard earned retirement. I do worry about the inequity though.

BV
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 10:06
  #13025 (permalink)  
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First Boot’s chemist High Street vaccination clinic opened in Halifax this morning.

First vaccinations given at 9am when they opened. More to follow before the end of the week.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 10:12
  #13026 (permalink)  
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A Public Health England (PHE) study of more than 20,000 healthcare workers found that immunity acquired from an earlier Covid infection provided 83% protection against reinfection for at least 20 weeks. (That was the length of the study, no data beyond that point)

The findings show that while people are unlikely to become reinfected soon after their first infection, it is possible to catch the virus again and potentially spread it to others.....

PHE recruited healthcare workers from hospitals across the UK and divided them into two groups: those who had coronavirus before and those who had not. Between June and November last year, the participants underwent fortnightly PCR tests for the virus, and monthly tests to examine the antibody levels in their blood.

Over the five months the researchers monitored infection rates in the two groups. They spotted 44 potential reinfections, including 13 symptomatic, among the 6,614 believed to have had Covid before, and 318 cases among the 14,173 who had no evidence of past infection.

A previous infection, they conclude, provides 94% protection against symptomatic reinfection, and 75% protection against asymptomatic reinfection.

The cases are referred to as ďpotentialĒ reinfections because a detailed genetic analysis of both first and second viruses must be done to confirm a reinfection, but information for the first infections was often not available.......

While the study is encouraging, it is unclear whether the same protection applies to older people. The study participants were aged 35 to 54 and would be expected to have robust immune systems. Older people tend to have weaker immune responses that are more short-lived.

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Old 14th Jan 2021, 10:13
  #13027 (permalink)  
 
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I am well over State retirement age, but no way am I about to book a holiday. We love our long-haul holidays, but our attitude to risk prevents us from traveling.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 10:43
  #13028 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Krystal n chips;10967192]Meanwhile...in Stoke there seems to be a "logistical " glitch,...... which sounds better than discrimination.

However, it's the response on the last line that's the most risible.....after all, when in doubt, blame the public and better still the elderly for arriving early !

===========================================

But that is exactly the behaviour I witnessed a few months ago when queuing for my flu jab. The region was in lockdown so the local health centre did not want crowds waiting in a small enclosed area. We queued, masked, 2m apart in the car park outside. The health centre was working quite efficiently. When reaching the front door, ID was checked, non-contact temperature measured, then directed to one of six vaccination stations and leaving after the jab via the back door. Even with that streamlined setup the queue seemed inordinately long and i wondered why. I had arrived at 12:00 for my 12:15 appointment and realised there was no way I would reach the front of the queue by the allotted time. Others around me obviously felt the same, and conversations began, "what time is your appointment?" Transpired that the couple in front were booked at 13:30, the fellow behind at 13:15. "We wanted to be early".

At the practice door the couple in front were turned away - "come back later". I noted the chap behind me was allowed in. All this made the outdoor queue much longer than it needed to be and slowed admittance to the surgery.
The same surgery was featured in BBC TV news bulletins a couple of days ago, when it was castigated for making 90-year-olds queue round the block in the freezing cold for their Covid jab.

In their defence, the surgery has now done something. Don't know what they've done, but those queues are now much shorter (no longer newsworthy) whilst vaccinations proceed apace.
I await their call...
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 10:47
  #13029 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
Over-50s rush to book holidays as vaccine boosts confidence https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55654127

I posted on this thread a while back about the wisdom of vaccinating elderly people first and making the younger members of society wait longer.

My thoughts were that getting people who do not have guaranteed income back to work so they donít lose their homes and livelihoods should be the priority.

Now I understand the rationale behind starting with the oldest people in order to protect the NHS.

I do worry, though, that articles such as the one attached will cause some resentment amongst young families who have to sit and watch their lives fall apart whilst the older generations get their lives back and continue to enjoy spending their pensions.

I am being a little inflammatory and Iím not saying I disagree with the governmentís plans or with the right of retired people to enjoy their hard earned retirement. I do worry about the inequity though.

BV
From a purely economic / social equality standpoint I think you're absolutely right, but of course the rationale for vaccinating the older age group first is at least as much to release pressures on the hospitals as it it saving lives, probably if policy makers were totally honest, the NHS is higher of the two priorities, but there's not a government minister who would dare say such a thing.

We know that during the pandemic household spending has fallen, and those in the over 70s bracket benefiting from final salary pensions will now be swimming in money, and looking for something to do with it, so booking holidays is an easy decision for them. I too feel for the younger generation furloughed, or worse, losing or lost their jobs with kids to support, and more frighteningly mortgages and rent to pay and ends probably not meeting. One of the unexpected consequences of the vaccination policy may well be the young being even more envious and begrudging of the older "baby boomer" generation.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 10:54
  #13030 (permalink)  
 
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ATN

My point exactly. I was worried Iíd just be branded a young upstart for daring to question my elders!

BV
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 11:03
  #13031 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
My point exactly. I was worried Iíd just be branded a young upstart for daring to question my elders!

BV
I fall between the two stools, could never be pigeon holed as "young" but still working, and not old enough to get the pittance the UK calls a state pension. We have certainly spent a lot less over the last 12 months on stuff like holidays, eating out and the like, but have invested in a new gas boiler amongst other things. Anecdotally there appears to be a lot more bricks and mortar home improvements going on at present, and during the second half of last year, perhaps again people investing their holiday money rather than risking making bookings on trips that may not go ahead and giving money to hospitality and travel businesses which they may not get back, we said businesses to go under.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 11:26
  #13032 (permalink)  
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My point exactly. I was worried I’d just be branded a young upstart
Whippersnapper perhaps, or even flibbertigibbet.....
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 11:27
  #13033 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC

Iíll take either of those. Could be a lot worse!

BV
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 12:02
  #13034 (permalink)  
 
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Can't post links, But they just started using A Hangar in Coltishall as a Mortuary......Im getting less and less convinced that this isnt going to destroy society...time to stop explaining away shitty attitudes and pretending one's interpretation of a rule = safe and responsible behaviour
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 12:12
  #13035 (permalink)  
 
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Hmm.......rich old people booking holidays ?

I am a state pensioner and rely solely on that pension with means tested benefits. My usual holiday budget is: fly to and from a Mediterranean destination for a total of £40 or less. Hostel accommodation for around £10 per night. That might not be everyone's idea of a great holiday, but I will not be the only one to enjoy it.

Thus when vaccine possibility was first mooted, I booked my budget flights to depart late April. At this moment I think my actual departure is unlikely but a £40 write off is easily afforded.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 13:02
  #13036 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I fall between the two stools, could never be pigeon holed as "young" ...
On the subject of pigeons and COVID...

A pigeon that travelled across the Pacific Ocean is to be put down after running afoul of Australia's strict quarantine rules.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55660592
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 13:17
  #13037 (permalink)  
 
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I think 'invincible' people like this should be put on the front line.

Anti-COVID restrictions class action lawyer goes off script

Serene Teffaha has been drumming up clients for a catch-all class action that includes people affected by any form of detention, mandatory vaccination, business closures, residential aged care isolation, cross border rules, contact tracing, compulsory testing and masks and various other measures put in place to control the spread of coronavirus. She has raised at least $500,000 since May, but is yet to file any class actions.
Just don't expect these kinds of people to be actually useful.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 14:31
  #13038 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow View Post
And some statistics about the excess deaths in 2020 from the ONS:
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ng1january2021
And we are still calculating the death rate based on an average over the last 5 years - when the death rate has been steadily climbing for the last 10 years. So the "average" we are using would be less than the real number of deaths we expected in 2020.
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Old 14th Jan 2021, 14:56
  #13039 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flyingfemme View Post
And we are still calculating the death rate based on an average over the last 5 years - when the death rate has been steadily climbing for the last 10 years. So the "average" we are using would be less than the real number of deaths we expected in 2020.
Doesn't really make much difference whether you factor in the small increases in mortality seen in the past 5 years (partly due to changes in the health and age structure of the population). That increase is in the order of 3-4%.

The excess mortality in 2020 is plain for anyone to see....

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/


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Old 14th Jan 2021, 17:35
  #13040 (permalink)  
 
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After looking through the ONS data for England & Wales (I don't have the time or the will power to plough through the Scottish and NI equivalents and add them in) it appears that the overall death numbers for all causes for 2020 is 599,681 which is 68,819 more than the average of 2015-2019, 530,862, giving an increase of 11.5%
This compares with a total of 528,507 for 2015 which is 32,550 more than the average of 2010-2014, 495,957, an increase of 6.2%

Goes to show that whichever way you slice and dice the figures the increase in deaths over the preceding 5 year average has roughly doubled.
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