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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 30th Jan 2020, 09:05
  #101 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...cuate-citizens

Coronavirus deaths leap in China as countries struggle to evacuate citizensChina has reported its biggest single-day jump in coronavirus deaths as countries struggled to evacuate citizens still trapped in Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the outbreak began.

The death toll rose to 170 on Thursday – up from 132 the previous day, a rise of 29%. The number of confirmed cases in China now stands at 7,711, up from 5,974 a day earlier. It is understood that 162 of the deaths – or 95% – are in Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. Of the new deaths, 37 were in Hubei province and one in the south-western province of Sichuan.

The World Health Organization, which initially downplayed the severity of the virus, has warned all governments to be “on alert”, and its emergency committee is to meet later on Thursday to decide whether to declare a global health emergency.......

In Japan, three of the 206 people repatriated on Wednesday had tested positive for the coronavirus, bringing the number of confirmed cases in the country to 11. A second group of 210 Japanese nationals arrived in Tokyo on Thursday morning. The chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said Japan was negotiating with China to send a third plane to collect about 300 more people, possibly late on Thursday.

About 15 people from the first Japan flight had been admitted to hospital with various symptoms, while another 13 on the second evacuation flight reported feeling unwell.

Officials defended the decision not to forcibly quarantine all Japanese nationals arriving from Wuhan, in contrast to Australia, South Korea, Singapore and New Zealand, which will quarantine all evacuees for at least two weeks regardless of whether they show symptoms.

Japan recently classified the virus as a “designated infectious disease” – meaning it will be allowed to forcibly quarantine those who test positive – but the measure cannot legally be implemented until 7 February.......

Two men who arrived in Tokyo on the first evacuation flight refused to be tested, the health minister, Katsunobu Kato, said. “We don’t have the legal basis to force them so we let them go home,” .......


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Old 30th Jan 2020, 09:41
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
I agree with AtNotts re possible hysteria. And I don't believe there will be a full-on apocalypse as per Double_Barrel's post:
Almost everyone involved in this believes that some kind of apocalypse is inevitable, but whether that is this outbreak, the next, or the one coming in 50 years time is impossible to say. The only thing that will change that prospect is a substantial improvement in ability to respond, or an end to global travel. There seems no chance of preventing the constant emergence and re-emergence of new viruses.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 10:30
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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Are we all getting a bit caught up in fearmongering?

So far the virus seems to have great trouble spreading out of Hubei province.

No widespread transmission or any deaths outside of China.

A very small percentage of those infected succumbing to the virus whom are mostly elderly or weak immune systems.

Compared to the normal seasonal flu which kills 600,000 per year worldwide (again mostly elderly or weak immune systems)

Are we fearmongering over nothing?
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 10:51
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post

Are we fearmongering over nothing?
Probably yes, but possibly no. That's the dilemma.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 13:58
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Are we all getting a bit caught up in fearmongering?
The authorities are faced with a lot of unknowns.
So far the virus seems to have great trouble spreading out of Hubei province.
Really? A couple of days ago, as I noted here, five cases in Arizona. In the US. That's a fair hike from Hubei Province.
(See also ORAC's recent post on cases in Japan, which is across a significant body of water from Hubei ...)
(EDIT: It appears that the first US case was on 21 January)
No widespread transmission or any deaths outside of China.
So far, and one hopes that with precautions it stays that way.
A very small percentage of those infected succumbing to the virus whom are mostly elderly or weak immune systems
.As with the flue most years, yes.
Compared to the normal seasonal flu which kills 600,000 per year worldwide (again mostly elderly or weak immune systems)
Aye.
Are we fearmongering over nothing?
Well, that's hard to say. But, it appears that in the US the risk is assessed as low.
Health officials maintain the current risk of coronavirus to the public is low. Many medical professionals stress that, in the U.S., you have a better chance of contracting the flu than you do the novel virus.
As the medical professionals get a better grip on this thing (in the next week or so, I'll guess) the answer to that may become clearer.
The worry over pandemics is based on some historical problems (the 1919-1920 flue pandemic as just one example) that public health officials are keen not to see repeated.
A few years back the West Nile virus got a lot of public health offcials very worried. And then as time went on they were less concerned.

I don't think the "abundance of caution" approach is bad when a new strain crops up.
My wife works in a dentist's office: she is always quite concerned in re communicable diseases, given her up close and personal working conditions.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 30th Jan 2020 at 15:41.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 20:15
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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There is mounting evidence that spread of the virus is being exacerbated by the effects of global warming.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 21:24
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WingNut60 View Post
There is mounting evidence that spread of the virus is being exacerbated by the effects of global warming.
No problems here, I'll just add a cube or two to my iced cocktail

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Old 30th Jan 2020, 21:46
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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Non.Story. More chance of being run over by a bus.,
We are being taken for mugs on this. How many die per day from the Flu? Wake up, everyone !
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 21:57
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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Wake up to what exactly? This is some great deep state coverup to what. Kill tourism to Wuhan? Allow them to build a secret bunker in a city most people around the world have never heard of, much less place on a map? The Chinese government are being held hostage by Dr Evil for one million dollars??
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 22:07
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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I don't know if this thing is going to get out of hand in spite of the measures taken so far or just fizzle out.
However from when long range travel was neither fast nor common:

"The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus It infected 500 million people around the world, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic.
The death toll is estimated to have been 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million (three to five percent of Earth's population at the time), making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history." wiki

More people died than in WWI, but you knew that.
Right now, no cure....no vaccine. Got paper face masks.
Seems prudent to take prudent precautions.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 22:11
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
I don't know if this thing is going to get out of hand in spite of the measures taken so far or just fizzle out.
However from when long range travel was neither fast nor common:

"The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus It infected 500 million people around the world, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic.
The death toll is estimated to have been 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million (three to five percent of Earth's population at the time), making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history." wiki

More people died than in WWI, but you knew that.
Obviously Global Warming/Climate Change.

Hat, coat......
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 23:02
  #112 (permalink)  
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I put the link and an excerpt to this on R&N. I don't think you should underplay this infection, the transition to pneumonia seems to be very, very fast.

BA cancel all flights to and from China due to Coronavirus
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 05:46
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
"The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic,
The death toll is estimated to have been 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million (three to five percent of Earth's population at the time), making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history." wiki
The current Coronavirus outbreak isn't the same as the 1918-20 outbreak. Currently it's mainly harming those with weak immunity (elderly with pre-existing conditions). The Spanish Flu mostly harmed younger adults with strong immune systems by causing an overreaction of their immune system which was dangerous.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 06:20
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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The Chinese are suggesting that the epidemic will peak between 5 and 8 days from today, cases and deaths will continue to rise after that time but the numbers of victims will begin to
slow down..

I hope they are right.

IG
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 06:52
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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Remember the BBC TV series from 1975 ?

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Old 31st Jan 2020, 07:27
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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For a more modern and relevant take on it, time to read Station 11, although that's probably a little too cheerful.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 07:29
  #117 (permalink)  
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Compared to the normal seasonal flu which kills 600,000 per year worldwide (again mostly elderly or weak immune systems)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...emic-7fkwkn88r

Coronavirus is edging towards pandemic

In Asia the latest virus panic will stir memories of 2003, when severe acute respiratory syndrome, or Sars, swept the region.

The Wuhan virus and Sars are both coronaviruses belonging to a large family of pathogens that cause infections ranging from the common cold to the deadly Mers, or Middle East respiratory syndrome. Sars and the Wuhan strain are believed to have originated in “wet markets” in China, where live and butchered animals are sold for food. There are several important differences, however. There have been more than 7,800 confirmed cases of Wuhan virus since the first was reported in December. It took far longer for a comparable number of Sars cases to be documented — about three months.

According to Ian Jones, professor of virology at the University of Reading, the pace with which the Wuhan virus has spread is striking and bodes ill for containment. “We’ve gone from a thousand confirmed cases to nearly 8,000 in ten days — it’s clearly out and about,” he said. By last night, 19 other countries had reported cases, despite China enforcing large-scale restrictions on movement.

“I don’t think any other country on Earth could have tried harder on this — but my own view is that it’s edging towards a true pandemic,” Professor Jones said.

The rate of infection is not the only difference with Sars. It appears that the Wuhan virus is less deadly. It has been estimated that about one in 50 cases will result in death. For Sars it was about one in ten and for Mers, first reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012, it was about one in three. For seasonal flu it is about one in 1,000-2,000.........


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/w...rus-china.html

Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Issues ‘Red Alert’ After Week of Skyrocketing Infections

The United States issued a Level 4 warning, its highest, urging Americans to avoid travel to China. Officials said the number of new cases had risen tenfold in the past week.......

The State Department on Thursday night issued a travel advisory telling Americans not to travel to China because of the public health threat posed by the dangerous new coronavirus. The department set the new advisory at Level 4, or red — its highest alert, reserved for the most perilous situations.

“Travelers should be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice,” the State Department said. “Commercial carriers have reduced or suspended routes to and from China.”The number of confirmed coronavirus cases has gone up more than tenfold in a week, and Chinese officials on Friday reported the highest death toll in a 24-hour period........

Nearly 2,000 new cases were recorded in the country in the past 24 hours, raising the worldwide total to nearly 9,800, according to Chinese and World Health Organization data......


Coronavirus Geometric Progression Suggests 100,000 Infections in a Week


Last edited by ORAC; 31st Jan 2020 at 07:40.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 08:31
  #118 (permalink)  
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First two cases have been reported in the UK.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 10:23
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Ohh dear,

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...pty/ar-BBZvhex

A chartered flight carrying 83 Britons has left Wuhan following the coronavirus outbreak - considerably fewer than the 150 passengers that the British government were anticipating.

The Foreign Office has confirmed that a total of 110 passengers, including 27 foreign nationals, are on board the plane, which left the Chinese city several hours later than anticipated.

A photograph from inside the aircraft appeared to show several empty seats ahead of take-off, suggesting that dozens of Britons may have been unable to make the flight
Joe Armitt, who is on the plane, told Sky News that not many people got on the flight because they weren't given enough notice to get to the airport - and said the "plane is very empty".

Among those who are still stuck in Wuhan is Nick House. He is from the UK and has two British children with his wife, who is from Indonesia.

He told Sky News that he was only given three hours' notice that the flight was leaving - with British officials warning that the Chinese government potentially wouldn't allow his wife to leave.
They decided to give up their seats on the plane in the hope that others would be able to take the flight.

Although the Chinese government later confirmed that his wife would be allowed to board the plane, they didn't have enough notice.

Mr House said: "We have no transport. There was no way for us to get to the airport. So we're still here
"They didn't arrange any transport. We think that other countries have arranged transportation to the airport - buses to pick people up, and so on.

"We're resigned to being here for a while now. We are hopeful that the government can arrange other flights or put us on a flight to a different country.

"We're just trying to make the best out of a pretty terrible situation to be honest."

Sky News understands that there was an "upper estimate" that 150 British nationals were in the Wuhan region - but it is claimed only 84 people had expressed interest in the flight.
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Old 31st Jan 2020, 12:41
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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Are we all getting a bit caught up in fearmongering?
Just a bit. My wife, who has Asian features, was pointedly asked if she was from China this morning as she paid for fuel in a garage. It is a common question to her at the best of times. She actually comes from a city 3000 km away from China in a very northern part of Siberia. She hasn't a clue about China, the Chinese or their language.
She is thinking about walking up to random white people and saying, 'Ertu frá Íslandi?' When they become confused, she'll apologise and say she thought they were Icelandic...
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