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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 31st Oct 2020, 10:28
  #10981 (permalink)  
 
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VP959 Perfectly valid point, but I'm referring to todays "leaks" of a possible full lock down.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 11:06
  #10982 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SarcenStone View Post
Rather than blaming the public, I think we need to be turning our ire towards the so called Ďexpertsí - I think they have got this spectacularly wrong.

... The protests and beach gatherings in the summer had no effect at all, so itís quite possible that the experts are barking up completely the wrong tree about transmission.

To be honest, if that many people are infected, itís a bit like trying to hold back a wave with your hands. So much is going to get through, itís pointless.
Unless of course you do get "it", and need a hospital bed.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 11:23
  #10983 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SarcenStone View Post
Rather than blaming the public, I think we need to be turning our ire towards the so called Ďexpertsí
Then again, you get numpties in Nottingham on Thursday night, partying like its New Year's eve, or the kn*bhead on the BBC news last night who'd snuck out of the county to visit a betting shop and have a cheeky pint while he was there. firstly claiming he didn't know it was against the rules and then seamlessly moving on to state that the "rules were there to be broken"

Comments like yours are part of the problem TBH.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 11:33
  #10984 (permalink)  
 
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I am reminded of an old aunt if mine who had firm views on capital punishment. When I disagreed she would say something like 'what if a child of yours was murdered'. As if an appeal to selfish emotion was a useful way to discuss anything, and also insulting, implying that an opinion was superficial and would rapidly be reversed for selfish reasons.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 11:33
  #10985 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps the prospect of a full lockdown has been leaked to stir up the anti lockdown contingent and if there is enough anti, give Boris the reason for not doing it. Personally I am against a total lockdown, only doing it in areas that have very high infection rates. Whilst I'm reasonably safe locked down in my personal bunker, I have family who will be adversely affects by a lockdown and family in the NHS who will affected if it gets out of hand. In the area where my son and future DIL are doctors things are ok but the DIL's sister is a doctor in a Leeds hospital and it is pretty grim.

As I said elsewhere, Boris is dammed if he does and dammed if he doesn't.

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Old 31st Oct 2020, 11:43
  #10986 (permalink)  
 
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The main problem seems to be that the majority of people don't have a clue when it comes to linking cause with effect. There seems to be a widespread assumption that a few thousand people gathered on a beach in summer is going to cause a wave of infection, when the reality is that in all probability it won't. The mechanisms for infection are perhaps a bit better understood now than they were at the start of this, as it seems that the main transmission route is via droplets expired by someone infectious being inspired by someone susceptible, with transmission by surface contact being less effective than was first thought.

It also seems clear that, as suspected months ago, this disease follows a similar pattern to other viral respiratory diseases, in that its prevalence, and perhaps its severity, increases in winter. There are perhaps several related reasons for this, people may tend to spend more time indoors in the autumn/winter months, and this may have several effects, closer contact with others in an enclosed space, lower ventilation rates in cooler weather, etc. It may be that reduced exposure to sunlight may have several effects, too, such as longer persistence, as the UV in sunlight deactivates the virus and reduced temperature allow it to remain viable for longer periods of time. It may even be that reducing vitamin D levels, from reduced sunlight exposure, makes some people more susceptible to infection.

It's all very well the government refusing to put any sort of public health education programme in place, and instead relying on lots of rules and regulations, but human nature being what it is means that a lot of people will just try and follow the rules without having a clue as to what's actually needed in order to reduce the disease transmission risk. It's still very common to see people wearing masks of a type, or in a way, that makes them virtually useless, yet they are complying with the rules. Seeing people wearing masks only covering their mouth, and not their nose, seems commonplace, as does seeing people wearing masks fitted with expiration valves. Examples of this sort of daft behaviour aren't just seen around and about locally, they are also regularly seen on TV and in the media, setting a poor example for others.

The saving grace over the summer, and perhaps at the moment, seems to be that, although there are lots of infected people around, far fewer seem to be becoming seriously ill. If this follows a similar pattern to influenza, we may see that change in the weeks and months ahead. I have a sneaking suspicion that we may have pretty high incidences of influenza during the summer months, but that at that time of the year it rarely, if ever, makes people ill, let alone seriously ill. For some reason, people may just be far more susceptible to getting serious illness in winter, hence the reason for the strongly seasonal characteristic we see. This coronavirus may be similar, and it may be that we are only aware of the high numbers that are infected at the moment because, unlike for influenza, we are actively testing tens of thousands of people to find the disease. This is what influenza looks like each year, in terms of the number of deaths it causes:



What the above shows is that there is a fairly steady baseline of a bit over 8,000 all-cause, all-age, deaths per week in England, with influenza increasing that number to around 10,000 to 13,000 deaths per week each winter. Influenza rarely kills anyone during the summer, but regularly kills ~2,000 to ~5,000 people per week at its peak each winter.

If this coronavirus behaves similarly, then I think what we may see is that, even if the number of new cases per day levels off, we may start to get an increasing number of people who become seriously ill and need hospital treatment, and an increased number of people that die from it. If it does follow a similar seasonal characteristic to influenza, then the peak for deaths will probably be around January/February, with the peak for hospital admissions perhaps about December/January. The slightly brighter news is that we should see fewer cases of influenza this year, as it seems that it's perhaps less infectious than Covid-19, and the measures being taken will probably have a significant impact on influenza transmission.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 11:46
  #10987 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
Personally I am against a total lockdown, only doing it in areas that have very high infection rates..
Trouble is by the time you have very high infection rates the cat is well and truly out of the bag, and throughout all the regional approach there has been little or no discouragement to travel.

Cornwall is often cited as a place with a low level of infections, but they are now up to nearly 50 per 100,000, which is double the rate we had in my part of Greater Manchester when we were put under increased restrictions at the end of August (we are now 10 times that number). All parts of England are on the same trajectory, just at different points in the cycle.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 11:51
  #10988 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SarcenStone View Post
I think we need to be turning our ire towards the so called Ďexpertsí - I think they have got this spectacularly wrong.
Ok then, specifically which experts and what is it that you think they got wrong?
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 11:54
  #10989 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by oggers View Post
Ok then, specifically which experts and what is it that you think they got wrong?
Thatís easy - the ones that tell him stuff he doesnít want to hear. Bit like whenever someone links a video and states Ďat last someone speaking senseí when they actually mean someone who echoes my views, which may not be mean the same!
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 12:02
  #10990 (permalink)  
 
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If you look at servo/control theory, then a massive lag between input and response leads to major instability. So with the virus, it's not just difficulty of relating cause and effect, it's aggravated by the delay of the incubation time, so there's a lot of closing stable doors after the horses have bolted.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 12:23
  #10991 (permalink)  
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Disagreement amongst the experts.....https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...lege-research/

Covid cases are not spiralling out of control, says King's College

Figures contradict recent data from Imperial College, which showed nearly 100,000 new coronavirus infections a day in England

Covid-19 rates are not surging, researchers at King's College have said after results from its symptom tracker app showed a far less deadly virus trajectory than Imperial College findings.

Earlier in the week, Imperial released interim data from its React-1 study which showed there are now nearly 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day in England, with nearly one million people infected. The Imperial team said rates were doubling every nine days and it was a critical time for lowering the 'R' rate. However, King's College – which has been monitoring the symptoms and test results of millions of people through its app – said it was not seeing such alarming numbers. The app found 43,569 daily new symptomatic cases on average, and calculated that doubling was happening every 28 days.

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College, said: "While cases are still rising across the UK, we want to reassure people that cases have not spiralled out of control, as has been recently reported from other surveys. We are still seeing a steady rise nationally, doubling every four weeks – with the possible exception of Scotland, which may be showing signs of a slowdown.

"With a million people reporting weekly, we have the largest national survey and our estimates are in line with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey. We can't rely simply on confirmed cases or daily deaths without putting them into context. Hospital admissions are rising as expected, but deaths are still average for the season."

New figures released by the ONS also put the number of daily infections far lower than Imperial's figures.

The ONS estimates that 568,100 people are currently infected, with 51,900 new cases each day – equating to around one in 100 people, up from 1 in 130 people in the previous week. Although the ONS figures show the virus is accelerating, increasing by just under 50 per cent in a week, the doubling time is still between 12 and 14 days, far less than Imperial's rate......

There is also widespread disagreement on the current 'R' rate, with Imperial suggesting it is around 1.6 for England but King's saying it is closer to 1.1. Sage also believes the 'R' rate is between 1.1 and 1.3. The figures, produced by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) group, are lower than last week when they stood at between 1.2 and 1.4......


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Old 31st Oct 2020, 12:24
  #10992 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Curious Pax View Post
Trouble is by the time you have very high infection rates the cat is well and truly out of the bag, and throughout all the regional approach there has been little or no discouragement to travel.
Well if local leaders spend two weeks refusing to go into lockdown that is hardly surprising. Boris needs to grow a back bone and not enter into discussion on the matter.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 12:30
  #10993 (permalink)  
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Boris needs to grow a back bone and not enter into discussion on the matter.
Not sure if Boris can just get away with just unilaterally imposing a national lockdown - not less than a month after he promised his MPs that any future restrictions would be discussed, debated and put to a vote in the House first....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...e-b719012.html
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 12:38
  #10994 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WB627 View Post
Well if local leaders spend two weeks refusing to go into lockdown that is hardly surprising. Boris needs to grow a back bone and not enter into discussion on the matter.
Actually we in Greater Manchester had been in a degree of lockdown for nearly 3 months at that point, so the extra restrictions didnít make much difference (and the delay was a week at most). Had the government been honest and said there was a fixed funding formula per head of population from the outset rather than trying to play off local leaders against one another, and trying to avoid any blame for restrictions, there wouldnít have been any delay.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 12:40
  #10995 (permalink)  
 
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Who says we don't learn from experience.....had a lockdown in the Spring, can't hold it forever for societal and commercial reasons, relax, virus accelerates. So let's do it again. And again, and again. Need to find a way of modulating this thing such that demand on hospitals is maintained within ( unpleasantly high) limits but the economic impact is limited to sectors which can't be sustained ( hospitality, mass gatherings at sporting events....). National lockdown failed here, in Belgium, France.......
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 12:55
  #10996 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Disagreement amongst the experts.....https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...lege-research/

Covid cases are not spiralling out of control, says King's College

Figures contradict recent data from Imperial College, which showed nearly 100,000 new coronavirus infections a day in England

Covid-19 rates are not surging, researchers at King's College have said after results from its symptom tracker app showed a far less deadly virus trajectory than Imperial College findings.
Bear in mind Imperial (REACT) and ONS esimtates are based primarily on random swab testing of people in the community (actual positive tests). Kings (ZOE) estimates are based primarily on symptom data entered into an app by a self-selected sample of smartphone users (which they have validated against a much smaller sample of actual swab tests).

Imperial and ONS tend to miss postive cases in the student community (swabs are mailed to permanent household addresses) while the Kings (ZOE) data will tend to miss older folk (e.g. care home residents and hospital patients) who are not using smartphones.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 13:09
  #10997 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SarcenStone View Post
As I said in my post, the vast majority of the population is, and has been complying. So, why are the figures ‘spiralling out of control’?
If this virus is so dangerous, we must lockdown everything. And I mean everything. You can’t have half measures. You can’t have schools open, you can’t have restaurants open etc etc.

This simply seems to boil down to which ‘expert’ you listen to.
I'm not at all convinced that many are actually doing anything useful to reduce the spread of this disease. I live not far from you (~10 miles or so outside the city), and the infection control behaviour I've seen in the city, and especially in the supermarkets, has ranged from being excellent earlier in the year to close to useless last time I went in to town (as a direct consequence I've not set foot in a supermarket for over a month now). Complying with the letter of some rule may well not have any significant impact if the people doing so don't understand how infection control measures actually work.

Take my local pub, for example. Until a couple of weeks ago people were gathering there in large numbers, with the only people wearing masks being the bar staff, and no one else taking any sort of precautions at all. That has changed in the past couple of weeks, as they've switched back to everyone being asked to wear a mask unless they are sat at a table, but I suspect the harm was done weeks ago, as the infection rate increased whilst there were very few useful controls in place. I only pop in to pick up a takeaway meal, as much to try and help the pub keep going as anything else. I'd love to go back to having a pint or two with friends in the evening, but pubs and bars have been pretty much proven to be one of the main ways of spreading this thing, so for now I'll forego that pleasure.
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 13:35
  #10998 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gipsy Queen View Post
This makes sense to me, although I remain unconvinced that the promulgated statistics are not slewed in some fashion to create distortions helpful to the government's case - whatever that might be. There is still no obvious differentiation made between deaths exclusively from Covid and the many more numerous deaths arising from the other causes largely neglected by a NHS myopically obsessed with the virus. Much time is expended in analysis of the minutiae of this plethora of data, but so few bother to question the scientific bases upon which the authorities so blithely strip us of our liberty.

The justification for the ten o'clock curfew and congregations of six - other numerical limits apply to different assemblies, the numbers of which Covid, I'm sure, is able to count - manifestly are incapable of support by any demonstrably scientific method. Ditto the extraordinary behaviour of the Welsh government. Such impositions are nonsensical, yet we continue to blindly follow the Pied Piper over the cliff edge leading to financial ruin. All because these clowns masquerading as a government have to be seen to be doing something, anything; it is clear that lockdowns achieve little beyond delaying the affects of the disease by whatever length of incarceration is mandated. To continue in this way expecting a different result, not only is stupid, it's utter madness and it is high time the more concerned and less cowed elements of the populace sought to resist this self-destructing lunacy.
Even though itís been said many times before. Some people still donít get it. The goal of lockdowns has nothing to do with trying to eradicate the virus. It has one sole purpose. To take the strain off the NHS. Leeds ICU beds are at 98% occupancy. For an 8 hour period one day last week there were zero qualified paramedics available in Leeds. Government guidelines the ambulance handover to hospitals is 10 minutes. On Thursday it was 4 hours!
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 13:38
  #10999 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SarcenStone View Post
As I said in my post, the vast majority of the population is, and has been complying. So, why are the figures Ďspiralling out of controlí?
If this virus is so dangerous, we must lockdown everything. And I mean everything. You canít have half measures. You canít have schools open, you canít have restaurants open etc etc.

This simply seems to boil down to which Ďexpertí you listen to.
...err. Was that an answer to the question?

The question was...

Ok then, specifically which experts and what is it that you think they got wrong?
I've got it, you're a trolling politician; answering a question with a question.!
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Old 31st Oct 2020, 13:41
  #11000 (permalink)  
 
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Twas the night before lockdown......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-eng...shire-54746814

I shall refrain from my usual comment as it seems to offend some people
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