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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 16th Sep 2020, 13:04
  #9941 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-positive-trap

Covid-19 and the false positive trap

Dr Clare Craig
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 14:50
  #9942 (permalink)  
 
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Just filled in the Public Health Passenger Locator Form for my return to UK after a holiday in Greece.

I have to say the Greek Governmentís version was easier to complete that our UK version. Printed out, itís three pages.

The UK form didnít even ask where I was staying in Greece, only which island. It asked for the airline and booking reference but that seems a long winded way of finding out who I Was near for 2 weeks, all brits.

it also asked when I would be leaving the country without giving the option of:

I am a citizen and resident.

oh well weíll see when I get to the airport.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 15:26
  #9943 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DON T View Post
Just filled in the Public Health Passenger Locator Form for my return to UK after a holiday in Greece.

I have to say the Greek Governmentís version was easier to complete that our UK version. Printed out, itís three pages.

The UK form didnít even ask where I was staying in Greece, only which island. It asked for the airline and booking reference but that seems a long winded way of finding out who I Was near for 2 weeks, all brits.

it also asked when I would be leaving the country without giving the option of:

I am a citizen and resident.

oh well weíll see when I get to the airport.
As the border agency officer said to me when I cleared immigration at Eurotunnel, "what do you expect, it was designed by the home office?".
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 15:51
  #9944 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
As the border agency officer said to me when I cleared immigration at Eurotunnel, "what do you expect, it was designed by the home office?".
wasnt it announced that it was going to be simplified. Iíve had to fill it in several times now. And despite it saying that Iíd be emailed a copy of the form I never have. I take screen shots. Part of wonders if I just show the old form if anyone would notice. It only gets a cursory glance.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 16:06
  #9945 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by back to Boeing View Post
wasnt it announced that it was going to be simplified. I’ve had to fill it in several times now. And despite it saying that I’d be emailed a copy of the form I never have. I take screen shots. Part of wonders if I just show the old form if anyone would notice. It only gets a cursory glance.
It was, but it was also announced the UK would have a world beating track and trace system; and a testing system. I didn't receive an emailed copy either, but when I arrived the UKBA officer wasn't about to look at our mobile phone screens either, the system is supposed to have been toughened up in terms of checking them I assume, see what happens when we get back in UK.

Whatever we'll fill the thing in like good citizens and comply with whatever regulations are in place on our return this time.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 16:16
  #9946 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by back to Boeing View Post
wasnt it announced that it was going to be simplified. Iíve had to fill it in several times now. And despite it saying that Iíd be emailed a copy of the form I never have. I take screen shots. Part of wonders if I just show the old form if anyone would notice. It only gets a cursory glance.

I must admit the completed form and the QR code arrived within a minute.

The Greek form could be filled in further ahead than the UK one and the Greek QR code arrived at 2200 the evening before we flew, midnight Greek time.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 16:32
  #9947 (permalink)  
 
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Drove past the nearest testing centre to us earlier this afternoon. Completely empty, no queues, just a couple of staff sitting outside looking bored and soaking up the rays.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 16:36
  #9948 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
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Originally Posted by DON T View Post
Just filled in the Public Health Passenger Locator Form for my return to UK after a holiday in Greece.

I have to say the Greek Governmentís version was easier to complete that our UK version. Printed out, itís three pages.

The UK form didnít even ask where I was staying in Greece, only which island. It asked for the airline and booking reference but that seems a long winded way of finding out who I Was near for 2 weeks, all brits.

it also asked when I would be leaving the country without giving the option of:

I am a citizen and resident.

oh well weíll see when I get to the airport.
Did that form the first time, but havenít even bothered anymore. Nobody at immigration looks at it so itís irrelevant and a waste of time.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 16:51
  #9949 (permalink)  
 
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Highflyer40
Me too, still not been questioned about it. Must be a tick box thing.
Cheers
Mr Mac
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 17:21
  #9950 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
Did that form the first time, but havenít even bothered anymore. Nobody at immigration looks at it so itís irrelevant and a waste of time.
Immigration let my sonís French girlfriend through last week despite the fact she couldnít remember the exact address she was going to be staying at. She told them it was somewhere in North London!
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 17:26
  #9951 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BehindBlueEyes View Post
Immigration let my sonís French girlfriend through last week despite the fact she couldnít remember the exact address she was going to be staying at. She told them it was somewhere in North London!
The USA esta asks where you
are going to be staying (even though itís valid for 2 years and multiple trips so again irrelevant) and I always say the White House.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 17:28
  #9952 (permalink)  
 
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A bit of light relief.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 19:17
  #9953 (permalink)  
 
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Michael Levitt

After some alternative thoughts were presented on this thread I had a glance at one of the recommended experts Michael Levitt.

I looked at the paper at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....26.20140814v1 which promoted the use of the Gompertz distribution to model the death-rate of the current edipemic in various places. A reasonable thing to try. But I got increasingly concerned about the implication that this was some sort of "law on nature" and the deaths (and their timing) were inevitable once the outbreak started.

This went completely against my own views that the course of serious outbreaks is changed by the populations reactions to the emerging situation. IMHO few people live through an episode of the Black death or the 1918 flu without changing their behaviour in an attempt to reduce their risks.

Anyway Michael Levitt thought he had cracked it, and expressed his predictions in https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/0...g-coronavirus/
TSD: What do you predict to happen in the coming months regarding COVID-19 in the U.S.?
ML: I think itís going to end up with less deaths than what I thought. In March, I thought there would be a total of 220,000, but there will be less than that. Right now it is around 155,000 in the U.S., and I am expecting it to end up under 170,000 or maybe 175,000.


That was on 2nd August, at 16 September the total now stands at 196,000 and still growing.

--------

The old mathematical modellers adage that "All models are wrong, but some are useful" still applies.

The far from perfect exponential epidemic model allows a variety of interesting what-if questions to be asked and the (usually counterfactual) predictions used to modify behaviour.

Q With N=3 and a infection fatality rate of X what is the expected number of deaths if the epidemic is allowed to run its course?
A Too many, try not to let it happen.

Q If we had a vaccine what percentage of the population would need to be immunised to bring N<1?
A If/when we get a vaccine we may need to buy this amount.

Q If we allow the epidemic to run freely what will the demands on the health service be?
A Too great, we need to "flatten the curve".

... which leads to the various attempts to modify N (at significant social cost and damage to the economy). I'm certainly not saying we took the best choices (e.g. timing of lock-down, use of track and trace, 4:10 working), but something had to be done.

Q What is the current value of N?
A If its >1 do something pretty fast. If its <<1 consider relaxing restrictions.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 19:39
  #9954 (permalink)  
 
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Drove past the nearest testing centre to us earlier this afternoon. Completely empty, no queues, just a couple of staff sitting outside looking bored and soaking up the rays.
There's a cycling route I take locally on a regular basis and I noticed a testing centre in the car park behind the Council offices and every time I've cycled past in the last ten days or so on an almost daily basis they also appear to be empty with no queues etc. In fact on the first occasion I noticed the test centre on the other side of the boundary fencing and was taking a look one of the operatives waved to me and wished me good morning they were so busy.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 22:38
  #9955 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Drove past the nearest testing centre to us earlier this afternoon. Completely empty, no queues, just a couple of staff sitting outside looking bored and soaking up the rays.
Ah, but Iíll bet you live in a posh part of the shires where thereís no hotspot, not an inner city dive where the kids ignore the rules...!😷
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 06:17
  #9956 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...irus-089lgt5tf

Coronavirus: Curfews for restaurants and pubs to tackle virus

Pubs and restaurants around the country face early closing times to slow coronavirus infections, with London’s public health chief warning of a “local curfew” in the capital.

The prime minister is looking for targeted ways to control the epidemic, which is spreading fastest among the young and risks running out of control. Hospitality businesses in hotspots are expected to be ordered to shut by 10pm. A further 3,991 cases were confirmed yesterday, 50 per cent higher than a week ago, and Boris Johnson warned that a rise in deaths would follow.......

Ministers are determined to prevent a return to rapid exponential growth in infections that could again kill thousands and threaten to overwhelm the NHS. Last night it was reported that office workers faced a possible order to work from home if the “rule of six” policy failed to reduce case numbers within two weeks......


Pubs have been ordered to shut at 10pm in Bolton and wider restrictions on hospitality in other areas are seen as a way of tackling a rise driven by socialising. Infection rates there yesterday topped 200 per 100,000, ten times the threshold for international quarantine.

Rhondda Cynon Taf became the second Welsh county to go into lockdown, with people told not to leave or enter the area and pubs ordered to shut at 11pm. Oxford was placed on “amber alert” amid concern over the return of students*.

Similar restrictions are planned for other areas, including Bradford, and last night Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, said that further curbs would be imposed in the northeast. He told ITV’s Peston: “A full announcement will be made tomorrow and so people living in that part of the country should watch out for that. The measures will come into play at midnight on Thursday.”

The areas affected are likely to be Newcastle, Northumberland, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Gateshead, Co Durham and Sunderland.

Kevin Fenton, the London director of Public Health England, suggested that curfews could come to the capital as an alternative to a full lockdown..... Describing the return of universities this month as a challenge, he said: “Getting back to normal life for young Londoners is associated with increased transmission.” An increase in infections was said to be inevitable in the winter and restrictions could be needed.

Downing Street did not distance itself from the suggestion that hospitality venues could shut earlier, which has caught the attention of ministers after similar measures helped to reduce infections in Belgian cities. It is understood that the measure is being considered for other areas. While London is unlikely to be first in line, given that infections are still lower than in the north and Midlands......

* Brighton has just gone to yellow alert, also probably linked to the mass arrival of thousands of students at Brighton and Sussex universities.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1872...-record-cases/
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 06:45
  #9957 (permalink)  
 
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Same in France

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...ties-knbnv8rtx

Coronavirus outbreaks hit French universities

At least 12 coronavirus clusters have been detected in French universities this month, prompting concern that students, including those in medical faculties, are failing to respect social distancing.

The clusters have emerged since the start of the academic year and have forced the temporary closure of some of the country’s leading institutes.

Students have been accused of behaving irresponsibly, notably at parties, but they blame overcrowded lecture theatres. A Twitter hashtag, #Balancetafac, which translates roughly as Denounce Your Uni, has been set up for students to post images and comments illustrating widespread sanitary failings in higher education.....

Professor Bertrand Raquet, the director, denounced “irresponsible behaviour” at start-of-year parties, often in bars in the city. “The bar owners of Toulouse were also irresponsible, doing nothing to ensure that anti-virus measures were respected,” he said. The renowned institute has been closed until the end of the month, with lectures and tutorials on the internet.

In Rheims in eastern France, the local branch of Sciences Po, the political studies institute that is the breeding ground of the French elite, has also been shut for two weeks after 23 coronavirus cases were detected. Most were linked to a welcome party for students in the Saint Maurice brasserie. A total of 50 students were expected but more than 200 turned up.

With students there now taking their courses online, Tilman Turpin, the director, said: “This is a very good lesson to students here and across the whole of France that risky individual behaviour can have collective consequences.”

Hopes that aspiring doctors would be more attentive to social distancing were dashed when clusters were detected at medical faculties in Nantes, western France, Montpellier, in the south, Rennes in Brittany, Angers in central France and Amiens in the northeast.

In Montpellier, where 51 second-year medical students and nine from the third year tested positive after what local media outlets said were a round of often drunken parties, Professor Michel Mondain, the dean of the medical faculty, said: “If students do not respect the instructions outside the university, there is not much we can do.”

Frťdťrique Vidal, the higher education minister, said that the new cases were “mostly linked to private gatherings . . . associated with a slackening [of respect for] sanitary instructions”.

Students claim they are being unfairly targeted. Fabien Bon, spokesman for one of Montpellier University’s student unions, said: “We are forced to cram ourselves into crowded lecture theatres, to cross paths with hundreds of other students in corridors. For that, we take crowded buses and trams. You can’t ask students not to go to bars when they’ve been crowded together all day.”

Commentators say the problem has been exacerbated by the lenient marking of this summer’s exams, which has resulted in a 60,000 or so increase in the number of students entering university compared with last year.

France has reported 162.8 new cases per 100,000 people over the past fortnight, compared with 55.6 in the UK and 22.7 in Germany. Despite this, President Macron, who imposed a strict lockdown in March, has been resisting pressure to introduce a further round of tight restrictions on the basis that the public would probably reject them.

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Old 17th Sep 2020, 11:44
  #9958 (permalink)  
 
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UK Imposes Covid Restrictions on NE England

Swathes of North East England will suffer liberty-limiting restrictions again, which they Government insists are necessary to prevent a second full lockdown. The restrictions are:
.
  • People must not socialise outside their household bubble
  • Table service only imposed at hospitality venues
  • 10pm-5am curfew for leisure and entertainment venues
  • .
The restrictions will apply to Northumberland, Newcastle, Sunderland, North and South Tyneside, Gateshead and County Durham council areas from midnight tonight.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 12:30
  #9959 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stan Woolley View Post
I rarely if ever use Ďsome bloggersí as evidence in my posts. Ivor Cummins, if thatís who you mean, is a talented, well educated individual that is bringing real data to the table. He will be biased, show me who isnít, but please point to where heís mistaken rather than put him and others down because they arenít Ďexpertsí in a specific area.
Ok so I never heard of this guy so I took a look (and I've not yet seen the response video by the doctor linked above but will watch after i've posted this).

Starting at the beginning he shows the death rates from Europe and calls them Gompertz curves. I am no mathematician but I'm fairly sure that Gompertz curves are S curves, hence my sciolist detectors are immediately twitching. He then states:
ďin the northern temperate regions you get a Gompertz curve when a new virus comes in and the reason is around 80% of the population are de facto immune due to cross immunity from other coronavirusesĒ.
Why would the curves for eg the Middle East, not also be of the form of the Gompertz curve? Each region will have its own curve but they will be of the same form (based on the context of what he is saying ie the epidemic runs its natural course). But he says Northern Europe gets a Gompertz curve "because 80% of the population are de facto immune already". The statement is incoherent. Where does this 80% come from and what has it to do with the form of the curve? If only 2% of the population was immune, would the curve would be of a different form? No, it wouldn't it, it would just be more acute. As to the assumption of 80% prior immunity, it has zero basis in fact or theory. The key word here is novel. It is by definition a new virus. You will not be immune to this because you had a cold last season. You may have some T cell immunity if you had previously been exposed to MERS or SARS but that is an area of great uncertainty. All that in the first minute. Forgive me for not watching the whole thing.

Snake oil salesmen on YT. They always claim they are bringing you the real science. It never stacks up.

PS also checked his sources. The best one doesn't even support his nonsense:

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe: a quasi-experimental study Paul R Hunter et al

We have undertaken a quasi-experimental study of the impact of various forms of social distancing interventions on the epidemics of COVID-19 infection in 30 different European countries. Our analyses confirm that the imposition of non-pharmaceutical control measures have been effective in controlling epidemics in each country. However, we were unable to demonstrate a strong impact from every intervention.
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Old 17th Sep 2020, 13:25
  #9960 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by oggers View Post
Ok so I never heard of this guy so I took a look ;
PS also checked his sources. The best one doesn't even support his nonsense:
Look, let’s cut through the bull.

1) Cummins, by whatever means he arrives there, thinks that the danger is all but over, and is not very likely to return. It was overblown.

2) The good Doctor says the opposite, strong lockdown works, masks work, the deadly second wave is on its way.

I tend to favour choice No 1. Many others agree, you may not. That’s your right.


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