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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 15th Jun 2020, 11:29
  #7741 (permalink)  
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I understand the US figure, what they mean is 6 feet. But what on earth does the Korean 1.4m convert into?



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Old 15th Jun 2020, 11:43
  #7742 (permalink)  
 
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Piers Morgan and Social Distancing. He wouldn’t have a problem with me.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/u...ocial-22193233
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 11:46
  #7743 (permalink)  
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VP959, you are not the only one wondering - from yesterday’s Times:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f...reat-3j887s8pj

Falling death rates bring hope that coronavirus may be in retreat

At one point intensive care doctors were having to choose who lived or died. Then weeks later Matteo Bassetti, the head of infectious diseases at San Martino hospital in Genoa, said that something had shifted. “The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” he said late last month. He was not alone in this view.

In America, where New York’s health system so nearly collapsed, one virologist agreed cautiously. Maybe the coronavirus was burning itself out. After rampaging through the east coast it was no longer causing the same damage. “It’s in the nature of these viruses to get tired after a while,” Lee Riley, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of California, Berkeley, said.

Scattered groups of doctors around the world are beginning to whisper about a change. What might have changed is the virus itself, they say......

These rare shafts through the doomy clouds of coronavirus have radiated around the world. But so too have the rebuttals of other scientists, desperate that the world does not lower its guard.
They say that the genetics of the disease show that nothing has changed. The evidence from ongoing outbreaks suggests that we are still helpless against its ferocity. They point out that these clinicians were providing anecdotes when the world needed hard statistics.

In two Italian regions, however, scientists have gone through the statistics and found some unexpected validation to turn anecdote into data.

An analysis of death rates from Ferrara, in Emilia-Romagna, and Pescara, in Abruzzo, has produced striking results. “From March to April, the death rate decreased by more than 50 per cent in all age-classes,” the paper found. The fall was largest among the elderly, from 30 to 13 per cent. The gap remained when factoring other explanations, such as pre-existing conditions. The results could be explained in other provinces as due to hospitals learning to cope, but these facilities never had the crowding experienced elsewhere in Italy.

Lamberto Manzoli, from Ferrara University, did the analysis after reports from doctors. “Physicians who were quite expert in the disease were going on television and saying the same thing,” he said. “That the mortality and morbidity was decreasing. So I said, ‘OK, let’s check.’” And when he did: “Honestly, I was surprised.”

Professor Riley told the science publication Elemental that he had reached a similar view. After studying reports from New York there were hints of an improvement in recoveries from the disease, he said. “I don’t know of other experts who think the way I do,” he said. “And I could be totally off the mark. But I look at real-world data instead of predictive models to come up with my ideas.” He said the virus had mutated to become weaker, an opinion dismissed by many.

Dr Manzoli said that the most likely explanation was not that the virus had changed but that we have.

When the first cases arrived in Italian hospitals, doctors followed what was known as the Chinese protocol. They waited until the condition worsened and patients were given ventilation if there was a respiratory failure. But doctors noticed that the disease did not affect only breathing, it also seemed to cause blood clots and maladaptive immune responses. A cocktail of drugs was administered to treat this along with other medications that — they hoped — attacked the virus.

“They started early,” Dr Manzoli said. “They didn’t wait until the symptoms were severe.” Maybe among the variety of treatments they hit on something that worked. “People are still dying,” he said. “But the rate is decreasing.”...... “We have reasons to believe this new approach is working,” Dr Manzoli said. “This has to be confirmed elsewhere but this is something positive.”

The problem is, however, that by the standard of evidence on which medicine relies, we still know nothing......

Peter Horby, an epidemiologist at Oxford University said that we should remember that when looking to explain the Italian findings. “The use of unproven therapeutics outside of clinical trials makes it almost impossible to attribute changes in fatality rates to any specific drug or intervention,” he said. “There will have been multiple simultaneous changes and what you observe is an average effect.”....... “We don’t know which, if any, of the listed treatments are effective or if other unmeasured effects . . . are the reason for the improvements.”

In other words, we still know nothing.........



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Old 15th Jun 2020, 11:46
  #7744 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I understand the US figure, what they mean is 6 feet. But what on earth does the Korean 1.4m convert into?
Korean rules aim to stop people coming to harm by staying two arms' lengths apart.
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 11:51
  #7745 (permalink)  
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Ahhh - so about 3 cubits......
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 11:59
  #7746 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
Korean rules aim to stop people coming to harm by staying two arms' lengths apart.
Does that mean if you turn sideways, you can touch each other?
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 13:19
  #7747 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I understand the US figure, what they mean is 6 feet. But what on earth does the Korean 1.4m convert into?
Average height?

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Old 15th Jun 2020, 15:19
  #7748 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I understand the US figure, what they mean is 6 feet. But what on earth does the Korean 1.4m convert into?


The big problem, of course is to calculate the correct distance, when a Spaniard meets a Dane, for instance. And if this occurs in Korea you need a health lawyer as well as a mathematician. Iíll stay in bed...
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 17:07
  #7749 (permalink)  
 
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I have to say I am impressed with this and the attitude of these companies...... kudos to them. Ikea plans to refund all the furlough payments they received for their staff across 9 governments, others are doing similar.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53047895
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 17:12
  #7750 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
I have to say I am impressed with this and the attitude of these companies...... kudos to them. Ikea plans to refund all the furlough payments they received for their staff across 9 governments, others are doing similar.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53047895
I lay a pound to a penny that Tim Martin (he of Wetherspoons fame) won't be so generous. Nor Anthony Bamford, Dyson, Sugar or many other UK captains of industry. Too busy lining their own pockets.
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 18:54
  #7751 (permalink)  
 
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What I would like to see, alongside the daily covid totals, is a running total of the jobs already lost and possibly also the number of job losses announced. Tragic though the loss of life undoubtedly is, it will, I fear, pale in comparison to the number of lives blighted by unemployment, both short and long term.

Estimates vary in the "spike" of covid-related job losses, but figures in the region of 4.5 - 10 million unemployed in the UK are being mentioned, with a not unreasonable figure of 5-6 million being widely reported.

This implies that for every 1 person in the UK that has died from covid-19 so far, more than 100 people will lose their livelihood - or, in the case of many (or most) school leavers and graduates, will not have the opportunity to even start work for some considerable time - if ever.

There are, of course, many other negative effects on the health and wellbeing of the population and society in general that have resulted from the policies of the last few months - job losses are perhaps the most obvious and quantifiable.

Time will tell if this particular nut warranted the sledgehammer blows to the economy in particular and society in general.


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Old 15th Jun 2020, 19:06
  #7752 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...tbreak-spreads

Beijing lockdown tightens as new coronavirus outbreak spreads

Authorities in Beijing have locked down residential compounds and fired officials over a new Covid-19 outbreak, as health officials warned the risk of the outbreak worsening was “very high”.

On Monday, authorities announced 49 new cases, 36 of which were linked to the Xinfadi seafood supermarket in Beijing’s southern Fengtai district. The wholesale market was closed on Saturday after it was identified as being at the centre of a new cluster of cases

“The risk of the epidemic spreading is very high, so we should take resolute and decisive measures,” Xu Hejian, a spokesman for the Beijing city government, said at a press briefing on Monday. On Sunday he said Beijing had entered “an extraordinary period”.

As of Monday, a total of 21 residential communities, housing about 90,000 people, near Xinfadi as well as a second seafood market in Haidian district, where cases linked to Xinfadi were also confirmed, had been closed off. Residents have been ordered to quarantine at home and undergo tests for the virus.......
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Old 15th Jun 2020, 21:08
  #7753 (permalink)  
 
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Smile

Originally Posted by Twitter View Post
The big problem, of course is to calculate the correct distance, when a Spaniard meets a Dane, for instance. And if this occurs in Korea you need a health lawyer as well as a mathematician. Iíll stay in bed...
Looking at the queues outside the big shops today I'd thought Bojo had relaxed the social distance minimum to 2cm!

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Old 16th Jun 2020, 00:18
  #7754 (permalink)  
 
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Japan too was recommending 1.8m (vs Korea 1.4m) a couple of months back and the figure seemed odd then, so I guess they too were following some original 6 feet advice, where meters obey feet.

Regarding suggestions that we may be over the worst, I am reminded of a Bushi (Samurai) proverb that goes 勝って兜の緒を締めよ (Katte kabuto no o wo shimeyo), "Keep your helmet cords tied, even in victory". Perhaps we could/should substitute face masks for helmets.
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Old 16th Jun 2020, 07:32
  #7755 (permalink)  
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-store-opening

Selfridges’ feverish store opening

Non-essential shops across Britain opened their doors for the first time since lockdown today, as the government attempts to breath some life into the UK economy, while avoiding a fatal spike of Covid-19.

Retailers meanwhile, face the difficult task of persuading people that it is safe to shop in their stores as the pandemic recedes. So far, the move seems to be working, with long queues reported outside Primark outlets around the country.

Selfridges in the centre of Manchester was certainly pulling out all the stops this afternoon, to entice customers back into its store. The department store even hired a singer to serenade those queueing 2m apart, while they waited to enter.

Mr S isn't sure that it was entirely wise to have someone singing at customers, when you have an infectious disease that spreads through water droplets on the loose. But as the Mail’s John Stevens pointed out, perhaps more worrying was the choice of setlist.

Did Selfridges, for example, really want their new customers, venturing outside for the first time after weeks hiding from a virus, to be treated to a rendition of Peggy Lee’s ‘Fever’?


Last edited by ORAC; 16th Jun 2020 at 09:50.
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Old 16th Jun 2020, 08:40
  #7756 (permalink)  
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POLITICO: GOOD LUCK WITH THOSE AIR BRIDGES:

New Zealand has just reported its first coronavirus cases in 24 days — and it’s two women from the U.K., who had flown in for a family funeral. The BBC has the latest.
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Old 16th Jun 2020, 08:48
  #7757 (permalink)  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/norw...vacy-concerns/

Norway suspends contact-tracing app over privacy concerns

Norway's public health body has suspended its coronavirus contact-tracing app and deleted all data collected by the technology following an order from the country's data protection body.

The Norwegian data protection watchdog on Friday gave the public health body (FHI) until June 23 to stop all collection of data via the app called Smittestopp. The regulator said the app presented a disproportionate risk to privacy given low download rates, which currently stand at around 14 percent of over 16s.

Norway's move comes after Lithuania's privacy watchdog ordered a stop to a quarantine app for suspected violations of EU privacy rules, and as Germany prepares to roll out its contact-tracing app this week. In France and the U.K., privacy concerns have plagued the rollout of similar tools.......
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Old 16th Jun 2020, 09:30
  #7758 (permalink)  
 
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Just seen a daft pic of EZY FD crew, in the cockpit, wearing silly masks that do nothing. SD ? 2 metres, one metre ? Looks like Skipper is inviting lady-co to take whiff of his anti-viral deodorant ! Most centre peds are less than 2 metres across yet there they will sit for two hours there, two hours back. It all is becoming quite funny now. Can't wait for Hancock's half hour on the telly tonight ; yeah, mean the one from the 60's !
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Old 16th Jun 2020, 10:01
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Tony Hancock would make much more sense than the bunch of t0ssers running (?) the country.
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Old 16th Jun 2020, 12:44
  #7760 (permalink)  
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Way too many tables to try and paste any here......

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...264-3/fulltext

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study
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