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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 22nd May 2020, 10:23
  #7061 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: attitude is nominal
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It's part of the latest IOS update and will be deeper embedded in future versions.
Set to "off" for the time being.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 11:08
  #7062 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1998
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Even a colleague has launched a tracing app that runs on a Pi-Zero

https://www.spinellis.gr/blog/20200520/index.html
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Old 22nd May 2020, 13:32
  #7063 (permalink)  
 
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jvr, you are right and I was wrong, maybe I should have had the beer before doing the calcs not after!!

DaveReidUK; it is a little meaningless but so are total death figures without at least a reference to population size and to population density

The results now reflect the benefit of having a large land area can have on the numbers (as expected):

Belgium - 0.002586
Netherlands - 0.000802
Switzerland - 0.000456
Ireland - 0.000453
UK - 0.000217
Italy - 0.000177
Portugal - 0.000135
Sweden - 0.00084
Austria - 0.000084
France - 0.000078
Iceland - 0.000028
Germany - 0.000027
Spain - 0.000012
USA - 0.000003
Canada - 0.000002
Australia - 0.00000001


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Old 22nd May 2020, 13:36
  #7064 (permalink)  
 
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UCL and the London School of Tropical Medicine have released these stats as of the 8 May showing how Covid deaths vary hugely by age:

Three under 15s
448 deaths in 15-44 ago group
4160 deaths in 45 - 64
6340 deaths in 65 - 74
30,135 deaths in the over 75s

If my calculations are correct, that’s 73% of fatalities in the over 75s.




Last edited by BehindBlueEyes; 22nd May 2020 at 14:17.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 14:39
  #7065 (permalink)  
 
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Oh dear! I'm 76 tomorrow.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 15:24
  #7066 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy View Post
Oh dear! I'm 76 tomorrow.
Good luck!
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Old 22nd May 2020, 15:59
  #7067 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
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Behind Blue Eyes
I hope when this ends as it will, that the effort was worth it, as there is going to be a very big bill to pay by the generations in the age groups up to 64, and probably not just financially.
On that happy note I am going out for a Beer with the staff in the Munich sunshine, before returning to the UK tomorrow, and will work from there until the end of May, when I will depart back here before Boris.s quarantine kicks in. I am not sure when I will be back, which is slightly concerning Mrs Mac, but Boris has a Bank Holiday weekend to come up with another plan, so it maybe all change again next week !
Cheers
Mr Mac
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Old 22nd May 2020, 16:22
  #7068 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy View Post
Oh dear! I'm 76 tomorrow.
Keep it quiet! "Don't tell them, Pike!"
Have a good one though.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 16:28
  #7069 (permalink)  
kpd
 
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interesting

the Lancet reports encouraging report for vaccine from ---Wuhan!!! Interesting.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 17:14
  #7070 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy View Post
Oh dear! I'm 76 tomorrow.
Don't complain! Would you have preferred ' he would have been 76 tomorrow'?
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Old 22nd May 2020, 17:34
  #7071 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy View Post
Oh dear! I'm 76 tomorrow.
So you've been over 75 for, what, 363 days (or is it 364?? 365??) so you've nailed it no problem!

Enjoy your day.....

J

Last edited by Cafe john; 22nd May 2020 at 17:35. Reason: Query leap year!
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Old 22nd May 2020, 17:44
  #7072 (permalink)  
 
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What do we make of this .......https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-...es-2020-5?IR=T
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Old 22nd May 2020, 18:06
  #7073 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by occasional View Post
I think I'd want to see the evidence to support this before deciding whether it might be OK or not. There's a fair bit of evidence that this virus can persist for a fairly long time on some surfaces, and we know, from studies into the spread of colds and influenza, that surface-to-hand-to-face is a pretty effective transmission route for infection. If CDC are now saying this isn't actually the case at all, then perhaps they have some newer work that positively proves this.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 18:33
  #7074 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
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Originally Posted by occasional View Post
It seems the more any human situation resembles bats hanging from a cave roof the better the virus can spread. Cool still air, no sunlight and slightly warmer exhaled air hugging the roof and being rebreathed. Bats are not big on work surfaces, door handles etc, but like most animals they’ll sneeze and cough and probably groom themselves and maybe each other.

Common sense would suggest that a sneezed or coughed virus laden droplet on any surface could persist for ages in a cool damp atmosphere with little air movement, especially shiny impermeable plastic wrappers or glossy paper.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 19:43
  #7075 (permalink)  
jvr
 
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Originally Posted by Little cloud View Post
It seems the more any human situation resembles bats hanging from a cave roof the better the virus can spread. Cool still air, no sunlight and slightly warmer exhaled air hugging the roof and being rebreathed. Bats are not big on work surfaces, door handles etc, but like most animals they’ll sneeze and cough and probably groom themselves and maybe each other.

Common sense would suggest that a sneezed or coughed virus laden droplet on any surface could persist for ages in a cool damp atmosphere with little air movement, especially shiny impermeable plastic wrappers or glossy paper.
cool and damp would describe a slaughterhouse perfectly
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Old 22nd May 2020, 20:17
  #7076 (permalink)  
 
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FWIW, this virus persists for a longer time in dry and cool conditions, and breaks down more rapidly in warm and humid conditions. Not sure about cool and humid, but would guess that that's a worse condition for long persistence than dry and cool.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 20:46
  #7077 (permalink)  
 
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I'd like to know how long the virus might live on fresh fruit. If someone with the virus picks strawberries for instance, can the virus live on that moist sweet surface until it's eaten two days later.

And then there are restaurant meals. It's all very well having a two metre spacing between tables, but has the chef handled the food with bare hands, or coughed over it? Very likely both.
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Old 22nd May 2020, 21:18
  #7078 (permalink)  
 
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You couldn’t make this up. It transpires Dominic Cummings, Government Chief Advisor, travelled to Durham from London, during lockdown, with symptoms, to visit his parents.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52779356
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Old 22nd May 2020, 21:19
  #7079 (permalink)  
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Old 22nd May 2020, 21:20
  #7080 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
I'd like to know how long the virus might live on fresh fruit. If someone with the virus picks strawberries for instance, can the virus live on that moist sweet surface until it's eaten two days later.

And then there are restaurant meals. It's all very well having a two metre spacing between tables, but has the chef handled the food with bare hands, or coughed over it? Very likely both.

Good question. The evidence seems to show that the risk from hot food is probably negligible, as the proteins in the virus tend to break down very quickly at high temperatures. Cold foods may present a risk, but it depends how they are prepared - my guess is that (rather bizarrely) fast food places may be a lower risk than haute cuisine, simply because the fast food places tend to have pretty stringent hygiene measures in place and it may be less likely that bare hands have touched any food.

When it come to fruit and veg, then it seems probable that the virus may persist for a few hours, maybe a day, but the chances are that washing fruit and veg before eating is probably enough to reduce the risk to a very low level. We've been buying fruit and veg from the local farm shop, and just make sure we wash everything carefully, which isn't any different to we'd do, anyway.

Bare hands are probably a slightly lower risk than hands clad in surgical-type gloves, in terms of transfer, as skin is a pretty hostile environment for lipid encapsulated viruses, and the risk of transmission from hand contact to a surface to another hand, and then to a face, is probably pretty low. The main surface contact risk is from droplets falling to a surface and then being picked up by a hand which touches face. The more hands that touch a surface the lover the risk, as there will be a dilution effect.
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