Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

Coronavirus: The Thread

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 9th May 2020, 08:01
  #6381 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: australia
Posts: 90
Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Simply astounded to learn that was not in place already.
They have done a pis poor job and it's no wonder they have a higher death rate than the US. too little too late.
golder is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:04
  #6382 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Scotland
Posts: 5
Originally Posted by golder View Post
10? I only count a couple. .1. Corporates didn't want to shut down, 2. So you did a little bit that couldn't work and social equality is so yesterday. 3. Bugger the piles of rotting corpses, it's time to make money again.
Yes that is the reality of the situation. The damage being done to the economy to prolong a few lives is a catastrophic overreaction.
guy_incognito is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:07
  #6383 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: australia
Posts: 90
Originally Posted by currawong View Post
Deaths per million shown at a national level are somewhat misleading.

National numbers fail to show that some localized areas within said countries are in serious trouble.

Take Sweden for example. 3000 + deaths in a nation of 10+ million. However most of the deaths are centered in/ around Stockholm, population less than 1 million.

In one report I read a health worker there described it as "horrific".
Those 3,000 are just the start of it. It will spread through the whole country.
golder is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:11
  #6384 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: australia
Posts: 90
Originally Posted by guy_incognito View Post
Yes that is the reality of the situation. The damage being done to the economy to prolong a few lives is a catastrophic overreaction.
Yep, it's time to say goodbye to your mum or grandma, for the good of the corporates.
golder is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:24
  #6385 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Scotland
Posts: 5
How about for the good of the millions who are going to be affected by the loss of their livelihoods, the hundreds of thousands who are going to die prematurely because of a delay either in seeking medical attention or in receiving treatment for a medical condition (cancer for example), the hundreds of thousands whose mental health conditions are being exacerbated by their isolation during lockdown etc?

Any death is a tragedy for those directly involved, but ultimately even human life has a monetary value attached to it.
guy_incognito is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:26
  #6386 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Balikpapan, INDONESIA
Age: 68
Posts: 536
Originally Posted by golder View Post
10? I only count a couple. .1. Corporates didn't want to shut down, 2. So you did a little bit that couldn't work and social equality is so yesterday. 3. Bugger the piles of rotting corpses, it's time to make money again.
You're 100% correct.
WingNut60 is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:29
  #6387 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,913
Obviously we'll know what this long overdue 14 days quarantine actually means, and to whom it will apply on Sunday evening when Johnson blusters (or does his best Churchill impression), but what beggars belief is that somehow it will take nearly three weeks to implement; it could and should be put in place at midnight on Sunday. If, as has been trailed, the quarantine extends only to asking people arriving to spend 14 days in quarantine, how exactly is that supposed to be policed? Will the police be battering down doors with search warrant in hand if the resident fails to answer their door? What happens to foreigners arriving here, where do they stay? If the government were serious, then they would electronically tag everyone arriving here, so they knew exactly where they were for 14 days, and if they were doing that I could quite understand why it might take 3 weeks to implement the rules.

Whatever, it is an enormous admission of mismanagement by the government to essential say that they were wrong about quarantine at the outset.
ATNotts is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:33
  #6388 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Balikpapan, INDONESIA
Age: 68
Posts: 536
Originally Posted by guy_incognito View Post
..................... the hundreds of thousands who are going to die prematurely because of a delay either in seeking medical attention or in receiving treatment for a medical condition (cancer for example), the hundreds of thousands whose mental health conditions are being exacerbated by their isolation during lockdown etc?
.
Any evidence to support these contentions, especially the numbers?

The inverse of your argument is that it's OK for thousands to die rather than a small percentage get a bit antsie if they can't get down the pub on a Friday night.
WingNut60 is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:38
  #6389 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,711
Those 3,000 are just the start of it. It will spread through the whole country.
They claim it has already peaked. https://www.redanalysis.org/2020/04/...ase-of-sweden/

ORAC is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:39
  #6390 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Scotland
Posts: 5
https://www.ft.com/content/0ccaac50-...5-37a289098206
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52461034

It is not hard to find similar articles.

The health costs alone are going to be catastrophic.

The inverse of your argument is that it's OK for thousands to die rather than a small percentage get a bit antsie if they can't get down the pub on a Friday night.
Quite clearly that is not the inverse of the argument.
guy_incognito is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:43
  #6391 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 67
Posts: 390
Years ago, military procurement costs versus capability trade offs used to work on a rough rule of thumb that every life that wasn't lost in conflict, as a consequence of a bit of kit working more effectively, was worth about 1.5 million. Allowing for inflation, this rough figure must have at least doubled by now, so the crude monetary value of the lives lost to this disease (assuming the reported number of deaths is accurate) is sitting at around 90 billion at the moment. Many more will die before this is over, so it's probably not unreasonable to estimate the the crude value of lives lost might be as high as 200 billion before we have this disease licked.

Not at all sure that's a reasonable way to look at things, as putting a value on human life is neither pleasant nor likely to be accurate, I think.
VP959 is online now  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:49
  #6392 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Scotland
Posts: 5
NICE works on a value of 20-30k per QALY. Given that the vast majority of Covid deaths are of elderly and/or chronically ill people, the figure of 90billion is far too high.
guy_incognito is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:51
  #6393 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,711
If the government were serious, then they would electronically tag everyone arriving here
Who are you going to give the contract too, Serco? Besides the tags work by the tag sending a regular signal to a receiver attached to the wearer's home phone. Not sure how that would work with most visitors - or how it would be quickly installed.

Frankly the imposition of such a quarantine seems more to be pandering to public opinion than scientific analysis and judgement. The majority of those entering the country are UK nationals returning home who will enter the same lockdown as everyone else and the same requirement to self isolate if they develop symptoms or are key workers who have to fly. The biggest risk would be from those who are entering the country and then roaming around such as HGV drivers through ports such as Dover - who reportedly will be exempt.

Good relevant post on another thread on the subject.

14 day quarantine

Given that “key workers” are likely to be exempted and, at the moment, are probably are the overwhelming number of people travelling by air (don’t think there are many holidaymakers), then how does quarantining a small fraction of those on a flight do anything at all?

Last edited by ORAC; 9th May 2020 at 09:14.
ORAC is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:53
  #6394 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: australia
Posts: 90
Originally Posted by guy_incognito View Post
How about for the good of the millions who are going to be affected by the loss of their livelihoods, the hundreds of thousands who are going to die prematurely because of a delay either in seeking medical attention or in receiving treatment for a medical condition (cancer for example), the hundreds of thousands whose mental health conditions are being exacerbated by their isolation during lockdown etc?

Any death is a tragedy for those directly involved, but ultimately even human life has a monetary value attached to it.
You mean like australia, that put in decent restrictions early enough. Paid $1500 a fortnight support to those affected. Got on top of covid, under 30 cases australia wide a day and still falling. They are opening the economy, starting on monday. You mean that place?

Who is getting cancer treatment delayed? Most countries are restricting elective, until opening up again. Australia opened elective a while ago.
golder is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 08:59
  #6395 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,711
Antigen Tests

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/stud...t-results.html

Abbott Laboratories’ antibody test for the new coronavirus is highly likely to correctly determine whether people have ever been infected with the fast-spreading virus, the company said, citing a U.S. study.

Researchers at the University of Washington School of Medicine found Abbott’s test had a specificity rate of 99.9% and a sensitivity rate of 100%, suggesting very few chances of incorrectly diagnosing a healthy person with the infection and no false negatives.....

Abbott’s test was launched last month under the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s relaxed rules for some coronavirus tests, allowing their distribution before regulatory clearance. It has since received emergency use authorization from the FDA. Abbott has already shipped more than 10 million antibody tests to hospitals and labs.

Roche Holding AG has said its antibody test has a specificity rate of more than 99.8% and sensitivity rate of 100%, and expects to ramp-up production to make more than 100 million tests a month by the end of the year. Roche’s test has also received emergency use authorization from the FDA.
ORAC is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 09:04
  #6396 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 67
Posts: 390
I'm pretty sure that comparing one country with another is inherently very deeply flawed. The rate at which this disease spreads depends on the population density to a fair extent; it has to, as it's passed from one person to others via close contact or proximity in the main. Densely packed cities will see a much faster spread of disease than sparsely populated rural areas, just because the probability of anyone being close to someone that's infected is so much higher in cities.

The comparison has been made in this thread before, but it seems pretty clear that, more than any other single factor, it's local population density that seems to be driving the infection rates. I'd hazard a guess that, when we've had a couple of years to analyse what's been happening, with the benefit of studies looking at the distribution of those who have been infected (from antibody testing) it will turn out that many of the measures that have been taken have not had much impact on the rate of spread of infection outside densely populated areas.


VP959 is online now  
Old 9th May 2020, 09:06
  #6397 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: australia
Posts: 90
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Well that's a BS chart isn't it. This is the daily case, even with poor testing. It will still spread over Sweden, be it more slowly. Like NY peaked, but it is still climbing in the rest of US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...emic_in_Sweden
golder is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 09:19
  #6398 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: England
Posts: 352
I'm sure it's good news that a reliable antibody test will soon be available. But what are the consequences for an individual of being tested?

If the result is negative, it means the person is still liable to catch and suffer the virus. Nothing has changed for them.

If the result is positive, what then? We still don't know if they will be immune ​​and if so for how long. We still don't know if they can still be infectious to others.

No doubt on a larger, longer scale the testing will help answer some of these questions, but for the moment it is not going to assist either government or individuals in making crucial decisions.
Sallyann1234 is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 09:28
  #6399 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Scotland
Posts: 5
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-52587408

Coronavirus: WHO warns 190,000 could die in Africa in one year


This is the sort of headline that is stoking the fires of hysteria. That would account for 0.01% of the population of the continent. By way of comparison, Malaria kills around 400,000 annually in Africa, HIV/AIDS kills around a million.
guy_incognito is offline  
Old 9th May 2020, 09:30
  #6400 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: australia
Posts: 90
When this kicks off in africa, they will be killing a lot more than that.
golder is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.