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Fires in Oz as of 1 January 2020

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Fires in Oz as of 1 January 2020

Old 25th Jan 2020, 04:32
  #121 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2015
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Knowledge dispels fear - we can see and we know that a patch of land needs burning and we mobilise QFES and Parks etc but comes the day and there is a 30 knot westerly. So we fear we are going to lose control and it’s put off till we get another chance!
That happens far too much lately and I certainly don’t have the answer.
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Old 25th Jan 2020, 04:39
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ironpot View Post
Knowledge dispels fear - we can see and we know that a patch of land needs burning and we mobilise QFES and Parks etc but comes the day and there is a 30 knot westerly. So we fear we are going to lose control and itís put off till we get another chance!
That happens far too much lately and I certainly donít have the answer.
Yes. Anyone claiming to have THE answer is kidding themselves.

The Australian bush has evolved to burn, and it will all* burn, sooner or later. In my opinion, better to plan for frequent cool burns instead of infrequent, unplanned and catastrophic hot burns.

*rainforests excepted.
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Old 5th Feb 2020, 08:44
  #123 (permalink)  
 
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Accidental air tanker drop

Air tanker accidentally dumps pink fire retardant on busy Canberra road near Anzac Parade
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...-road/11933942

I can understand a deliberate drop due to turbulence but thought it must be fairly rare for an accidental drop to be caused by turbulence.

The drop is reported to have started on Parkes Way at the southern end of ANZAC Parade. No reported no injures or accidents, but must have been a bit of a surprise to drivers on Parkes Way at the time!
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 03:25
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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This will have much the same results as the 50 or so before it.

Perhaps there will be more traction to implement and maintain the findings this time.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...nised/11934484
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 23:05
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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What was stated 4 weeks ago about how the fires will be put out? Rain is the answer but the cc hysterics will tell you that there will be no rain because Australia still digs up coal and exports it and per capita blah blah blah. So is this cc or the natural weather cycle in action "of droughts and flooding rains.." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...=statenews_nsw


Its no wonder that people get confused about the science when you have divergent opinions about the effects of cc from two leading economists, one of whom was a contributing author to the UN cc bible. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...-cost/11929098

I have been to the NSW South Coast recently and already the bush is recovering, as it always does as it always will.
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Old 7th Feb 2020, 07:14
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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No rain? It's bucketing down along most of the NSW coastline right now and has since last night. If I am to believe the news my little patch of Sydney's west can look forwards to as they claim upwards of 250mm of rain tomorrow.
Already pumped out 15 odd cm of water out of the pool this afternoon as it was near overflowing, likely will have to do the same come tomorrow afternoon.
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Old 7th Feb 2020, 11:07
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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Where’s Russel Crowe and his self-serving acceptance speeches when you need him?
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Old 8th Feb 2020, 05:15
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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Ororral Valley fire 'being controlled' but, as of 9:00 this morning, still burning on a 74 km front.

Five other fires around the ACT still in the process of "being controlled"

Rain forecast, but only 2 mm so far to help them out.
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Old 9th Feb 2020, 03:18
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe this will be an encouragement https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...hfire/11947268
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Old 9th Feb 2020, 08:30
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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Indeed, a week ago it was evacuate due to fire, now it's turning into evacuate due to floods. Haven't seen rain like this for years!
Drive home from work today and later picking up the CFO had a few dodgy spots when I was glad I was driving a higher SUV rather than the old hatchback. Had to go around some poor folks stopped in their tracks with itty bitty cars hoping for the floods to recede.
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Old 9th Feb 2020, 22:45
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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It's a bit early to call the complete picture, but a very large area of the eastern states fire ground has received significant soaking rains in recent days to the degree that flooding is now taking over the news headlines from the fire situation. This should surprise no-one except the snowflakes who proclaimed that 'climate change' meant that it would never rain again. Ever!

The cycle of fire and flood is a common one in Australia's history, and here it is once again. In my observation and recollection, often significant bushfires are followed by rain in the following weeks.
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Old 10th Feb 2020, 05:25
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FullOppositeRudder View Post
... but a very large area of the eastern states fire ground has received significant soaking rains in recent days to the degree that flooding is now taking over the news headlines from the fire situation.
Your statement is certainly true for NSW (that is Newcastle, Skidnee and Wollongong) but certainly not true further to the South West and the divide and into Victoria where a siginificant moisture deficiency exists along with only light patchy rain. Falls certainly haven't matched the BOM forecast.
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Old 16th Feb 2020, 09:43
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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This is the BOM Climate and Water Outlook for Feb - Apr 2020, issued 30 Jan 2020 as posted on the NSW RFS web page.

Two weeks in, it has already shown itself to mostly wrong.

In fact, if I was that bad at my job I would give it up and find something else to do...


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Old 17th Feb 2020, 06:33
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting currawong. Just goes to show that when it comes to the weather forecasting or any other long range forecasting it is still more art than science. When I was trying to give my in-laws some idea what might happen on the South Coast of NSW I looked at this Climate Outlooks and this https://www.eldersweather.com.au/rai...disableCookies . Yet the video from the BoM tells a very different story. Are they that hopeless or were they conforming to the climate change emergency narrative?
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 05:35
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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"Its not arsonists, its all global warming and lightning strikes" they said....



Just for the record. (2020 - 2021 season)

"A man from the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) has been arrested for allegedly deliberately lighting grassfires in NSW's south-west."

"NSW Police began an investigation into more than 30 suspicious fires"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...-fire/13086776
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 05:50
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
"Its not arsonists, its all global warming and lightning strikes" they said....

NSW Bushfire Inquiry 19/20, page 24. Most of the biggest fires started by lightning. Total land burnt due arson? less than 1%.

Basically fires lit by people are spotted quickly by other people, fires ignited by lighting can ignite far away from people and they're harder to spot and extinguish.
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 06:29
  #137 (permalink)  
 
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You will of course note, good Dr, that I stipulate this is from the 2020 - 2021 season, not last season.

Also, that it is just for the record, as these seem to sometimes distort over time.

As it did, last season.

Whilst I broadly agree with you, they are a larger part of the mix than is suggested.

Of course remote area fires consume vast areas, they are often left to do what they do for weeks at a time. Hence the stats.

"There are, on average, 62,000 fires in Australia every year. Only a very small number strike far from populated areas and satellite studies tell us that lightning is responsible for only 13 per cent. Not so the current fires threatening to engulf Queensland and NSW. There were no lightning strikes on most of the days when the fires first started in September. Although there have been since, these fires – joining up to create a new form of mega-fire – are almost all man-made."

SMH 18/11/19
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 07:40
  #138 (permalink)  
 
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You'll also note that there is never mention of the number of official "backburns" that go wrong.
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 08:44
  #139 (permalink)  
TWT
 
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Originally Posted by SRFred View Post
You'll also note that there is never mention of the number of official "backburns" that go wrong.
There's quite a variety of causes

Rural dweller with angle grinder, people failing to extinguish campfires, military helicopter landing lights sparking a blaze....
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 01:53
  #140 (permalink)  
 
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A big fire in Victoria decades ago with many deaths was caused by the wheel coming off a trailer if I recall. Locally a major fire which caused deaths was a case of arson by one of the fire fighters.
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