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Borris next PM?

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Borris next PM?

Old 2nd Jul 2019, 17:33
  #861 (permalink)  
 
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Completely agree with Rustle and I’m a Cornishman.
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Old 2nd Jul 2019, 18:08
  #862 (permalink)  
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CJ, give it a rest, consider you might not be right.
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Old 2nd Jul 2019, 23:43
  #863 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
You dream of a utopian European ideal and believe people who tell you it is possible.

Maybe we are all right. Or maybe we are all wrong. Time will tell. I for one do not wish to fall out with anyone over it.

BV
I don't ever believe in a utopian European ideal. No one does That's impossible. Even the most ardent EU enthusiast doesn't believe it. But you've been sold a utopian British ideal. (Well maybe not you personally) Neither is possible.

As for the lies told by the remain side. Well they're only lies if they don't happen. A no deal Brexit is a roll of the dice. But the dice is loaded. It's not going to roll a six. It'll be bad or very bad.

What I find astonishing is how many people are sleep walking into a no deal as much as anything because of the cranky attitude of the DUP whose agenda seems to be to antagonise the people whose island they share. Nothing new there of course but that it drags the rest of the UK into their bigoted bubble beggars belief.

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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 06:20
  #864 (permalink)  
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Wonder if they took afternoon tea with Sammy and Arlene while they tried to work out where they were ........

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-lights-sketch
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 06:46
  #865 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Steepclimb View Post
As for the lies told by the remain side. Well they're only lies if they don't happen. A no deal Brexit is a roll of the dice. But the dice is loaded. It's not going to roll a six.
If course we are talking prophesies rather than lies (politicians cannot lie but might might be guilty of inexactitude). Sadly many prophesies by Remain were proven false as they didn't happen. The same is not true of the Leavers as that is yet to happen.

As for your analogy, No Deal could or would be a roll of a dice, that too is yet to occur. The odds of a 6 or 1-5 is indeed a load but who is to say whether 4 or 5 would be bad?

Remember the Referendum was a 3.05 and our MPs only managed 2.99.
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 06:53
  #866 (permalink)  
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 07:27
  #867 (permalink)  
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Promised are cheap. All parties make promises that they hope will win them the election: soak the rich, fix the railways, abolish rates, lower VAT. The devil is in the detail.

The promise becomes an aspiration. The cast iron guarantee becomes over the next 5 years. The timescale for the 15 living wage exactly matches the expected living index etc.

Tax cut promises only count for an election if you are not yet in power. If BJ really meant what he promises then he loses all credibility should he fail to deliver once in power. Should he actually deliver then it might influence a future election. An immediate election would only apply if, on selection, he did not get a workable majority inn the house.
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 07:44
  #868 (permalink)  
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An immediate election would only apply if, on selection, he did not get a workable majority inn the house.
By the time the leadership is decided the Conservative majority will be down to two. He can go to the country asking for a mandate for Brexit and with the above as a give-away manifesto.
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 08:00
  #869 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post


By the time the leadership is decided the Conservative majority will be down to two. He can go to the country asking for a mandate for Brexit and with the above as a give-away manifesto.
That is one of the more likely outcomes; and though I know you disagree, I think the election will come before the next Brexit deadline, and as such an extension will be virtually inevitable. That extension would I think be little more than a month, since if there were a pro Brexit result we'd be out pronto - with no deal, or TM's deal. If a less hawkish grouping won, then that short extension would turn into a longer extension, whilst the EU and the new regime sees if there is room for a different kind of Brexit (or I suppose no Brexit) with new teams on both sides.
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 08:15
  #870 (permalink)  
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I agree the election could come before Brexit day, but don’t see the extension being requested by Boris if elected.

The last remaining dates for a vote on no confidence (VNC), leading to a new government before 31st October, are the last day of the present session of Parliament, 25th July, 48 hours after Boris is elected, and the first day the HoC sits after summer recess - 3rd September.

If a VNC is requested by Labour and lost on the 25th or the 3rd, Boris goes to the country and requests a new mandate as above. If one occurs after 3rd Sept then Brexit will occur during the campaign unless Boris asks the EU for an extension, something he has already stated he will not do.
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 08:46
  #871 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I agree the election could come before Brexit day, but don’t see the extension being requested by Boris if elected.

The last remaining dates for a vote on no confidence (VNC), leading to a new government before 31st October, are the last day of the present session of Parliament, 25th July, 48 hours after Boris is elected, and the first day the HoC sits after summer recess - 3rd September.

If a VNC is requested by Labour and lost on the 25th or the 3rd, Boris goes to the country and requests a new mandate as above. If one occurs after 3rd Sept then Brexit will occur during the campaign unless Boris asks the EU for an extension, something he has already stated he will not do.
The problem for Johnson is that if he lets us fall out without a deal and no election (no transition, and the inevitable chaos that would cause, even if only for a few weeks) the whole thing could backfire on him, and result in a coalition that doesn't include him or the Tory party. If he decides that because of that he won't go for an election and brazen out a no deal exit, then a VNC would be pretty well inevitable, and again the ensuing chaos would likely work against him.

Being the kniving self centred politician that he is I can just as likely see him going for an election before 31.10.19, putting forward his case for a wonderful new Britain post Brexit (lower taxes, more public spending, abolition of sugar / fat taxes, free unicorns for every family etc etc - it'll sound a bit like a Labour manifesto!!!) and hopefully win attracting a similar demographic as got Trump into the Whitehouse. With a Corbyn lead Labour party that can't make it's mind up on Brexit (at least the leader can't) it's probably his best chance of remaining PM beyond Christmas.
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 09:00
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unless Boris asks the EU for an extension, something he has already stated he will not do.
According to the BBC's Katya Adler, that could not be an option anyway. She reports that the negotiating, signing etc were all done by the EU Commission. That is now finished. The only option now seems to be via EU national leaders. Who can imagine Boris setting up appointments with 27 heads of state, conducting 27 sets of negotiations and getting said 27 heads of state to agree anything?
Regardless of the current excitement at the prospect of the German lady heading up the EU Commission should remember she has to be confirmed yet and that is not certain.
As for the EU appointing a lawyer as head of the ECB... what was wrong with appointing an economist?
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 09:51
  #873 (permalink)  
 
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Just say Boris decides to leave comewhat may but parliament voted against it, he is PM because he is an MP and a parliamentarian, can he go against aprliament , if he did would not the Queen be entirely within her rights, indeed duty bound , to sack him , especially as he has not actually been elected. Would the army and police take any notice of a PM who didjt have parliaments backing. Would the civil service obey a PM or parliament ?
I would hope all three are true otherwise we really a re the Nazi Germany of this century with unelected leaders ignoring parliaments.

If he does go for a GE it is hard to imaging the scale of lies he would tell -have we really sunk so low as a nation that we could elect a PM who in many ways is even worse than Trump and whose idea of negotiations with a woman EU president would probably be looking at her boobs but then most of his and Brexit voters would probably do the same.
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 09:53
  #874 (permalink)  
 
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Pax britlunatic once again demonstrating why the remoaners lost and will always lose.
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 09:56
  #875 (permalink)  
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According to the BBC's Katya Adler, that could not be an option anyway. She reports that the negotiating, signing etc were all done by the EU Commission. That is now finished. The only option now seems to be via EU national leaders. Who can imagine Boris setting up appointments with 27 heads of state, conducting 27 sets of negotiations and getting said 27 heads of state to agree anything?
I think you are confusing negotiation over the WA and a request for an extension.

The Commission is delegated authority to negotiate, so a renegotiation would logically only be done after 2nd November - which would require an extension.

An extension is solely in in the hands of the 28 heads of state in the EU Council. These can be assembled at 24 hours notice, as was done yesterday to finish choosing the new Commission heads. Note it is 28, the 27 cannot grant an extension without a request by the executive (PM) of the nation involved.

It is uncertain if all the 27 would grant another extension, at least without conditions such another referendum, and the length would be their choice. The are suggestions that, for budgetary and parliamentary reasons, some would insist on a minimum of another full Commission/budgetary 5 year cycle. There is also the chance that, because of the Brexit party and the newly elected MEPs unable to take their seats, one or more might say no anyway.

However, assuming a request was made, and no demands made, the EU Council could theoretically offer an extension of a few months to allow negotiations with the new Commission.

For the reasons laid out earlier, however, I consider a request unlikely, conditions probable and a refusal to accept them certain.



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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 10:27
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I would hope all three are true otherwise we really a re the Nazi Germany of this century with unelected leaders ignoring parliaments.
Except that the German people did elect the NSDAP into power; it was what they did with that power resulted in the events of 1939-45. Leader of said party was a populist pandering to people's prejudices and promising voters a land of milk and honey. To quote Theresa May "sound familiar?" (And by the way, I'm not thinking of either of the contenders for the PM's job).
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 12:28
  #877 (permalink)  
 
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Pax britannica: oh dear!
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Old 3rd Jul 2019, 17:31
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"The relationship between those things won't change. 17.4 million is ALWAYS going to be less than 29% of 60+ million"
"CJ, give it a rest, consider you might not be right."

Mental processes are always fascinating!
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Old 4th Jul 2019, 04:50
  #879 (permalink)  
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When in doubt, it's always wise to return to the tried and tested appeals to voters hearts and minds.......well a suitably select group that is.

So what better attraction could there be than to fondly recall our heritage.......bear baiting, sending children up chimneys and workhouses to follow....than to allow your everyday sociopath the opportunity to canter around the countryside ripping a live animal to pieces all in the name of.......... "sport ".!

Sod the potential to lose jobs and business closures, as he's already indicated his indifference to, it's the essentials of life that should take priority !....but he has promised Boris a super job if he gets elected

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...foxhunting-ban

Boris is of a similar mind as well, so that's sorted out any unity problems, and has thoughtfully written to another group of voters albeit many when voting probably get confused with the "X" and think they are putting their signature on a piece of paper .....having written to them was possibly a futile gesture as Boris may be under the impression they can both read and comprehend......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-48862881

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-taxes-cartoon

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 4th Jul 2019 at 05:20.
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Old 4th Jul 2019, 06:47
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It was interesting to watch the ITV news last night. Following a report about 180 odd Tory party members caught up to their armpits in on-line Islamophobia, Boris was asked for his views on what should be done about this sort of behaviour among those about to vote for the new PM. He declared that religious or racial intolerance will not be tolerated and will be dealt with. (Paraphrasing him here). This from the person famous for his "piccaninnies", "water melon smiles" and "bank robber" women!
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