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Borris next PM?

Old 15th Jun 2019, 08:20
  #341 (permalink)  
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His latest ruse re the Irish border is to take the erstwhile smugglers on trust. It is easy to conclude that everything that comes out of his mouth is pfeffel.
I line with the UK government proposal of 2017. See the position paper below, section 3, but in particular paragraph 48. The policy was referred as "benign neglect".

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...position-paper

Under this arrangement, the UK believes it would still need to go further to agree specificfacilitations that recognise the unique circumstances of the Northern Ireland-Irelandborder. As the principles above outline, these facilitations will need to go beyond existing precedents and should be developed in a flexible and imaginative way. One potential approach that the UK intends to explore further with the EU is a cross-border trade exemption that would recognise the unique economic, social and cultural context of the land border and the fact that many of the movements of goods across it by smaller traders cannot be properly categorised and treated as economically significant international trade. Such an exemption would ensure that smaller traders could continue to operate as theydo now, with no new requirements in relation to customs processes. It is important to notethat in 2015, over 80 per cent of North to South trade was carried out by micro, small andmedium sized businesses.37 They are, in effect, examples of local trade in local markets.
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 08:29
  #342 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I line with the UK government proposal of 2017. See the position paper below, section 3, but in particular paragraph 48. The policy was referred as "benign neglect".

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...position-paper
That paper is based on the trading that takes place now​​​​​​, when there is free trade and no border. There is no reason or incitement for abuse.

Once there are different trade conditions on the two sides of the border, there will be opportunities to make money out of the situation and you may be sure that they will be used. The criminal gangs that remain from the political extremists will do well out of it. It will be a running sore for years, until the two sides are finally united.
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 14:27
  #343 (permalink)  
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In view of what this proves about the “impartiality” of Ch4, all the candidates should withdraw from the planned debate.

https://order-order.com/2019/06/15/a...t-feel-charge/
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 16:44
  #344 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
In view of what this proves about the “impartiality” of Ch4, all the candidates should withdraw from the planned debate.

https://order-order.com/2019/06/15/a...t-feel-charge/
Here's the full piece ORAC...

Why should others withdraw when it's their opportunity to promote themselves .....apart from Boris who is clearly being kept well away for the obvious reasons that when Boris promotes himself, it's for all the wrong reasons...if you want to be PM that is.

https://www.channel4.com/news/i-am-m...ter-bus-attack
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 16:50
  #345 (permalink)  
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 17:27
  #346 (permalink)  
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Well done ORAC ..that's probably the most definitive description of this Gov't yet to be printed !......plus, as we know, K.G.-M is always popular on JB.

Unless you would prefer a journalist and presenter being a potential Oscar nomination for their performance as Uriah Heep when questioning Boris and the other candidates ?

This assumes there are other candidates of course........nothing like stifling the opposition to get your own way after all.

Seriously, with this level of duplicity and connivance so readily apparent, would anybody trust Boris as PM ?.....and remember, the world is watching ...closely.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-boris-johnson

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 15th Jun 2019 at 17:42.
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 17:48
  #347 (permalink)  
 
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Who ever takes over their back will look like a sieve given the propensity of back stabbing going on.
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 18:11
  #348 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Who ever takes over their back will look like a sieve given the propensity of back stabbing going on.
Nicely put.

Look at the big picture and not the long game. Who ever becomes PM may not survive beyond 2022 and might be considered a caretaker. The big picture is to end the stagnation of the economy while the politicians mess around. Regardless of the best we need the most effective in the short term. Three years and he can be gone.
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 18:16
  #349 (permalink)  
 
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I’m interested in JB views on Rory Stewart. I read his book The Places in Between and was totally impressed with his courage. Looked him up on Wiki and found he’s held quite a few governmental positions. Any opinions appreciated, positive or negative.
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 18:18
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Look at the big picture and not the long game. Who ever becomes PM may not survive beyond 2022 and might be considered a caretaker.
That's how I see it. Whatever anybody thinks of Tory MPs as a whole, they have an instinct for self-preservation. The fact that so many of them are supporting BoJo speaks volumes. He solves a problem for them in the short term.
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 19:18
  #351 (permalink)  
 
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If Boris delivers Brexit then what happens to the Brexit Party. Do some of the the BP voters then return to the Conservatives, [depending on what sort of Brexit is achieved]? If so then that may help them.
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 19:31
  #352 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by slickcity View Post
I’m interested in JB views on Rory Stewart. I read his book The Places in Between and was totally impressed with his courage. Looked him up on Wiki and found he’s held quite a few governmental positions. Any opinions appreciated, positive or negative.
He seems to be an erudite man with significant experience of government appointments - but it appears that he just doesn't float the boat of the public or his fellow MPs.

He could well be a better choice than BJ, but without support he isn't going to get considered (this time around).
Maybe after BJ (and others) have had their go he could come to the fore?
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 20:01
  #353 (permalink)  
 
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Rory Stewart appears to be someone I could vote for without disgust, so there is no chance the greater Conservative Party will raise him to leadership. Shame! The one chance they have of installing a conviction politician, who could potentially turn the country round and they won’t be able to bring themselves to do it. Instead we’ll get BJ, embarrassment and failure followed by JC and all the pain that will bring taking generations to sort out the mess. Maybe I should pack my bags and leave now
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 22:08
  #354 (permalink)  
 
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I’m interested in JB views on Rory Stewart.
I also like him, comes over as a genuine chap. Perhaps one to watch for the future because I think he will be given a high profile job by the next leader, but he does seem to have enemies hence his moniker "Florence of Arabia".
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 22:45
  #355 (permalink)  
 
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To argue over whether Johnson is or is not a homophobe/misogynist/anyting at all is pointless - he is anything which appeals to his current audience - assuming he can remember which that is. He doesn't need to have any recognisably decent qualities - members of the Tory party are exemplified by the 'lady'; interviewed at lunchtime. She was given a list of some of his objectionable traits and asked if she could vote for someone like that. Answer "Yes, absolutely, he'll get us out of the EU" Are Tories born minus the humanity gene, or is it removed as a condition of membership?
Mr Stewart is in the wrong Party. He will never be appreciated by enough Tories to succeed. He applies a little thought to the political process rather than just regurgitating dogma for the ;faithful'. Frankly. on the present showing, his talents would be best employed as a benevolent dictator!
I must recant - there ARE decent people among the politicians ... but so few! They are not defined by Party but the ability to define problems and adapt solutions. They can never take their rightful places in directing the country because of the all-pervading power of the Establishment. 'Twas ever thus !
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Old 16th Jun 2019, 05:30
  #356 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
That's how I see it. Whatever anybody thinks of Tory MPs as a whole, they have an instinct for self-preservation. The fact that so many of them are supporting BoJo speaks volumes. He solves a problem for them in the short term.
Tempting though it is to offer what I think about Tory MP's as a whole, I won't.

That said, their primal instinct for survival hasn't been evident in recent times, more an instinct for political cannibalism you might say, allied to regression to their school playground days.

However, the short term may prove to be precisely that. Non existent would be better as far as Boris is concerned, but, if he does get in, he's not going to be around for very long.......
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...atcher-cartoon

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...early-election
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Old 16th Jun 2019, 05:59
  #357 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Cornish Jack View Post
Mr Stewart is in the wrong Party. He will never be appreciated by enough Tories to succeed. He applies a little thought to the political process rather than just regurgitating dogma for the ;faithful'. Frankly. on the present showing, his talents would be best employed as a benevolent dictator!
The 43-year-old divides opinion. To his detractors he is an insufferably pretentious and grandiose throwback to a vanished imperial Britain. Cruelly they nickname him “Florence of Arabia”. Others acknowledge his extraordinary achievements, charisma and diplomatic skill. In an era of professional politicians who say nothing controversial, the exotic, reflective and candid Stewart is an anomaly.
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Old 16th Jun 2019, 07:04
  #358 (permalink)  
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What to say about Rory Stewart.

Firstly, this is nit his time. He has been a junior in minister for several years but only joined the Cabinet 6 months ago. What he is doing is making his case for a more senior post - and a better chance next time round.

Personally he does seem to one of those often sneered at coming from the class who see government as both a duty and a right. Fencing in Hyde Park at 6AM with his father (!!), Eton, Balliol, a token SSC in the Black Watch, PPE at Oxford, Foreign Office, tutor to the Royal Family. Frankly I cannot see his past membership of the Labour Party as anything other than another tick in the box for his resume.

It is other exploits and achievements which mark his out as exceptional - his wanderlust, professorship, authorship, all at a young age. Without being in anyway derogatory, merely on intellect and achievement, he reminds me of Enoch Powell.

Politically he is an economic Thatcherite, but socially seems much closer to Ted Heath as a One Nation Conservative and intent on moving to the middle ground. If there is a problem it would be that, as social cleavages change, that central ground is dissolving and, if anything, the new consensus is gelling around the opposite - a need for a party which is closer to the left on economics but to the right on social policies.

He has suddenly switched position and said he would be willing to serve in a Boris cabinet if asked. I do not see him reaching the last two, but getting close, and being offered a major cabinet role thereafter - perhaps the NHS?
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Old 16th Jun 2019, 07:27
  #359 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...jobs-7f7t00km5

Boris Johnson surges in Tory leadership poll as rivals Michael Gove and Sajid Javid pitch for cabinet jobs

Boris Johnson’s progress towards Downing Street appeared inexorable last night as his most senior rivals began circling for jobs in his cabinet and a new poll showed that voters believe he is the only leadership candidate who can win the next election. Two of Boris Johnson’s rivals — Michael Gove and Sajid Javid — used interviews with The Sunday Times to issue coded job applications........

At a grassroots party hustings yesterday, Javid gave an impassioned speech in which he said there could be no coronation of Johnson because “that didn’t work last time” when Theresa May became prime minister with little scrutiny. “You need to have your say,” he told party activists.......

Gove and Johnson were also judged to have done well, but observers said Hunt and Raab’s performances “fell flat” and Rory Stewart, the outsider, “lost the room”........



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Old 16th Jun 2019, 07:45
  #360 (permalink)  
 
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Boris is quite clearly home and dry. It's only the previous experience of the coronation of Theresa that is putting them off from doing it again without at least the charade of due diligence. My guess however is that it is Brexit that will do for the fifth Tory PM in succession.

It is difficult to predict exactly how it might go but here are the likely options: August: Bozza tries to reopen negotiations and gets told "You already have a deal, take it or leave it." Cue huffing and puffing and sabre rattling. Bozza eventually flounces out and says we will go for no deal. This is where it gets more tricky to predict. One possibility is that he loses a confidence vote . Dominic Grieve, Nick Boles and Philip Lee are prepared to bring their government down rather than contemplate such an exit.

if however Boris decides to go through with it and manages somehow to pull it off then I think it probably depends on whether
​​​​​​​We see bad or dire consequences after leaving. A mildly bad reaction could most likely be ridden out but anything worse would see a good proportion of the 52% turning on his government and saying"You told us it would be ok".Hostages to fortune doesn't begin to cover it.
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