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BREXIT

Old 3rd Sep 2019, 08:03
  #1961 (permalink)  
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A doctor is not a logistics expert. Listening to the briadcast the doctors case seemed to be that “my colleagues are afraid the drugs will run out”, but with no explanation of what mitigation was possible or had been put in place.

It resembles another interview a few days back when a doctor was horrified lorries might be delayed. When he was informed that the government had organised alternate air freight transport his answer was that was dangerous because it has never been done that way before. Now I know aircraft are a new dangled means of transport, but it’s generally considered safe enough to carry freight as well as people....

Last edited by ORAC; 3rd Sep 2019 at 09:12.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 08:14
  #1962 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
The government shouldn't have asked for professional advice if they didn't want to hear it.
They asked for professional advice so they could provide some rationale for their Leave opinion.
Possibly because they had none...


Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
But ReesMogg, with his safe EU investments, doesn't need to worry about anyone else being hurt by Brexit.
Anybody advocating Brexit is hoping that it's the others that are going to be hurt. Some of them have their money and assets safe in other countries.
The others, well...



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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 08:58
  #1963 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
A doctor is not a logistics expert. Listening to the adapt the doctors case seemed to be that “my colleagues are afraid the drugs will run out”, but with explanation of what mitigation was possible or had been put in place.

It resembles another interview a few days back when a doctor was horrified lorries might be delayed. When he was informed that the government had organised alternate air freight transport his answer was that was dangerous because it has never been done that way before. Now I know aircraft are a new dangled means of transport, but it’s generally considered safe enough to carry freight as well as people....
Whilst it's reasonable to assume the doctors fears about air transport may be unfounded, it's far from unreasonable, even without Grayling, to assume the Gov't + contingency planning + sufficient aircraft is never going to = a satisfactory solution.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 10:48
  #1964 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
A doctor is not a logistics expert. Listening to the briadcast the doctors case seemed to be that “my colleagues are afraid the drugs will run out”, but with no explanation of what mitigation was possible or had been put in place.


ORAC, to date no logistic expert has ventured to predict any mitigation as to the effects of BREXIT, as to date Britain doesn't even know whether it's really quitting and whether with or without a deal.

Given that British CAA is not even sure whether its pilots and airplanes will be allowed to cross the Channel or the North Sea on the 1st of November, I'd consider any talk of "government organising alternate air freight transport" with a grain of salt.

Maybe some here are a bit too involved to get the big picture, but today "organization" is not the first thing that comes to mind when considering your Government ;-)

Last edited by Fly Aiprt; 3rd Sep 2019 at 11:35. Reason: Typo
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 10:53
  #1965 (permalink)  
 
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Berlin London airlift anyone ? As usual this will be a " see what develops" and panic operation.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 11:23
  #1966 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
A doctor is not a logistics expert...

All the logistics experts are very much in favour of (no deal) Brexit indeed🤣🤣🤣
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 11:32
  #1967 (permalink)  
 
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What's next from Mogg? A logistics expert will be wrong to say that he couldn't guarantee to bring in fresh food, because he is not a chef.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 11:33
  #1968 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
A doctor is not a logistics expert.
Well spotted ORAC.

Did you also spot that neither is JRM, and I also doubt JRM is a medical expert either.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 11:42
  #1969 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by xraydice View Post
Berlin London airlift anyone ? As usual this will be a " see what develops" and panic operation.
Ah ah ah,
Chlorinated chicken and medicals airlifted direct from the US.
Wait a minute, they must buy Groenland first !
What remains is airlift from Russia via Norway...
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 11:47
  #1970 (permalink)  
 
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An 'air bridge' to guarantee medical supplies sounds like the kind of narrative that might originate from the right wing think tank currently occupying Downing Street since they transferred across from Tufton Street. The more immediate threat from a no deal exit is an issue which is rarely discussed - DATA TRANSFER

The issue was however summarised in a government report published on 19 July 2019 - back in the days when there was "ample time" for the country to come to it's senses:

Pharmaceuticals and chemicals

The success of the UK’s chemical and pharmaceutical sectors rests on highly-integrated just-in-time supply chains. A disorderly no deal would disrupt these supply chains overnight, and, according to the Government’s own figures, would reduce GVA for the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors by over 20% over 15 years, compared to what it would have been had the UK not left the EU, as a result of tariff and non-tariff barriers. Pharmaceutical industry representatives were clear in evidence to us that no deal is a leap into the unknown, but that it would likely harm the life sciences sector and increase risks to patient safety, affect the supply of medicines and could lead to price rises for the NHS. For the chemical industry, which is at the top of supply chains for numerous other sectors, disruption at the border will have profound consequences for UK manufacturing, with resulting costs to the UK economy.

Under no deal, chemical and pharmaceutical companies operating in the UK will be cut off from EU regulatory systems and databases, which protect the environment and patient safety. Companies operating in both markets will need to register chemicals or seek marketing approvals for drugs twice, in the UK and the EU, an expensive and bureaucratic process that will reduce the attractiveness of doing business in the UK. Chemical companies will need to undertake new commercial negotiations with competitors to secure data needed to register chemicals. For the pharmaceutical sector, no deal will mean the UK’s relegation from the first to the second league of international markets, and the likelihood of longer waiting times for certain medicines as a result.

The EU has said that in the event of no deal, the UK will be treated as a third country and there would be no provisions in place on the exchange of data between the two entities. This carries harmful consequences for the life sciences sector which relies on the exchange of data for clinical trials, pharmacovigilance and the detection of unsafe or counterfeit medicines. The risk of any reduction in patient safety is unacceptable. The industry has already invested in the implementation of the Falsified Medicines Directive and the Government must set out urgently options for a replacement safety framework to eliminate the risk of unsafe and counterfeit medicines entering the UK supply chain.

Let that sink in. No deal exit creates a potential risk which nobody saw painted on the side of a battle bus that set out to save the NHS .. the prospect of counterfeit medicines entering the health service.





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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 12:32
  #1971 (permalink)  
 
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As I understand it there are only seven countries who actually make a nett positive contribution to EU funds. Looking at the waiting list I can’t see that situation improving anytime soon. So membership subscriptions are therefore likely to rise?
Hope this helps
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 12:49
  #1972 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sfm818 View Post
Let that sink in. No deal exit creates a potential risk which nobody saw painted on the side of a battle bus that set out to save the NHS .. the prospect of counterfeit medicines entering the health service.
Maybe that's why this Leave campaign chap Lawson tried to get a Carte de Séjour to benefit from the French health service ?

BTW, here is a quick and easy solution : have the Chinese counterfeit any medicines you need for cheap.
Provided Trump allows you to trade with China ;-)

Serious now. Regarding human factors.
It is very interesting to note how some people here react when presented with a possible problem induced by the Brexit.
Ordinary people would research the subject, analyse pros and cons, carefully check the proposed solutions to determine if they are realistic, etc.

Others seem to prefer inventing solutions or reporting notoriously uncompetent politic leaders' musings.
And yet haven't those already proved unreliable with "the easiest of deals" ?

Fool me once...



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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 12:57
  #1973 (permalink)  
 
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Considering this is a professional pilots forum, why does proposed use of air transport (London airlift anyone?) imply panic?
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 13:19
  #1974 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Considering this is a professional pilots forum, why does proposed use of air transport (London airlift anyone?) imply panic?
Because chances are it will be a last minute "organization". Unless someone could provide a source for credible information on the subject.
Also, there is a huge uncertainty as to whether British aircraft and pilots will be allowed to operate within the EU.

Of course it may also be possible to start with EU airplanes and crews providing the UK with vital items...
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 13:45
  #1975 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
Of course it may also be possible to start with EU airplanes and crews providing the UK with vital items...
And in a no deal situation where the UK fails to pay its legally obligated divorce bill I’m sure those EU aircraft and crews will be provided at an affordable price..../s
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 13:56
  #1976 (permalink)  
 
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Can anyone provide credible sources that substantiate the claims that there actually will be food and medicine shortages post Brexit under WTO rules and why, as there will not be more food and medicine needed over and above what is currently being imported from the EU, secondly the only delays on the transport system, that will travel the same routes as they do now and the amount of lorries will not increase, ‘might’ be a delay in checking that any new paperwork is in order, delays that should not cause shortages as being touted and there is enough information posted for those businesses who need to make changes in preparation for that outcome (note: Links have been provided numerous times for those that may ask).

The way I see it the only major delays will be self-inflicted by either businesses not preparing because they believe we will not leave, or port administration staff on either side of the channel holding up transport deliveries on purpose to make the point that they were right all along, however I can no more substantiate that opinion than I suspect can those purporting it will happen as a certainty.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 14:05
  #1977 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
Can anyone provide credible sources that substantiate the claims that there actually will be food and medicine shortages post Brexit under WTO rules and why, as there will not be more food and medicine needed over and above what is currently being imported from the EU, secondly the only delays on the transport system, that will travel the same routes as they do now and the amount of lorries will not increase, ‘might’ be a delay in checking that any new paperwork is in order, delays that should not cause shortages as being touted and there is enough information posted for those businesses who need to make changes in preparation for that outcome (note: Links have been provided numerous times for those that may ask).

The way I see it the only major delays will be self-inflicted by either businesses not preparing because they believe we will not leave, or port administration staff on either side of the channel holding up transport deliveries on purpose to make the point that they were right all along, however I can no more substantiate that opinion than I suspect can those purporting it will happen as a certainty.
My god, where to start...
Can you tell me where i can get the necessary paperwork to ship goods to my customer in Sterling?
Do you know what just a two minute stop for each and every truck passing through Calais, Rotterdam, Hoek van Holland,... means regarding traffic jams?
Vice versa Dover, Hull, Harwich,...
Are you sure that EU and UK will be working according to WTO rules? Will the UK be a member of WTO?

You know, we have a very fitting saying in germany: Wenn man keine Ahnung hat, einfach mal die Fresse halten...
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 14:15
  #1978 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
Can anyone provide credible sources that substantiate the claims that there actually will be food and medicine shortages post Brexit under WTO rules and why, as there will not be more food and medicine needed over and above what is currently being imported from the EU,
Some have been posted above, sir.
"You can take a horse to water..."

As for trucks lorries, believing that traffic will continue as usual while at the same time claiming no-deal at the face of fishermen, is not the wisest of beliefs...
But why do we care since an airlift has already been taken care of by your politicians ;-)

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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 14:19
  #1979 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ThorMos View Post
Wenn man keine Ahnung hat, einfach mal die Fresse halten...
Nicht zu nett zu unserem Freund ;-)

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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 14:22
  #1980 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
Nicht zu nett zu unserem Freund ;-)
Du meinst, ich sollte nicht so nett zu ihm sein?
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