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BREXIT

Old 18th Oct 2020, 13:54
  #6241 (permalink)  
 
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Ah yes, Ivan Rogers that bastion of impartiality with regard to the EU...
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 14:25
  #6242 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Except the UK has repeatedly been asking for one - and the detailed negotiations, but the EU has refused stating that fisheries and state aid rules had to be agreed first.

And if you check the slides issued by the EU nearly 2 years ago they include the Canada option as the easiest to negotiate.....

IIRC, the chart was not a road map of how to get to an off the shelf "Canada style arrangement", but rather, to demonstrate that the publically stated HMGov red lines meant that relationships similar to the countries from uppler left to lower right, were excluded, red line by red line, and so were not options for the future relationship. As a result of publically stated positions, if the UK wanted access to the single market, then HMGov would have to enter a detailed negotiation process similar to that undertaken by Korea and Canada. If not, then it was go straight to WTO, do no pass Go, do not collect £200.

If I understand the HMGov position, they're looking for more than Canada has agreed, as they seek no tarrifs (which are included in the Canada deal), no quotas (again, limits are part of Canada), regogiation of qualificaitons (not included in the Canada deal) and some freedom of movement along with complete market access for road transport amongst others as well as having no defined arbritration process at initiation of the agreement. The EU's postion is that they won't take an agreement with one third country as the starting point for an agreement with a seperate third country, so each must be negotiated from scratch. The UK has insisted it will stick to its exit timeline.

JAS
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 14:54
  #6243 (permalink)  
 
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Another diagram and comments available here from a 2018 paper from the Institute of Government:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...elationship-eu

The paper's "Points of note" regarding the Canada option:

  • Canada option: A Comprehensive Economic and Trade agreement: The EU’s new agreement with Canada allows tariff-free trade with the Single Market for industrial goods and some agricultural produce but very limited access for services. Canada does not have to comply with the EU’s regulations, but there is mutual recognition where each side accepts the other countrie’s (sic) regulations for market access to some services. It can lead its own trade policy but that means customs controls and compliance with the “rules of origin” checks.
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 14:59
  #6244 (permalink)  
 
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If the UK would be happy with a Canada style agreement with the EU, it's strange that we haven't yet been able to agree a Canada style agreement with Canada.
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 16:14
  #6245 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
If the UK would be happy with a Canada style agreement with the EU, it's strange that we haven't yet been able to agree a Canada style agreement with Canada.
The UK will of course not be happy with a canada style agreement: no services!
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 16:37
  #6246 (permalink)  
 
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Thormos
You hit the nail on the head. It does not matter about industry being "f**ked" but we have to protect the city of London, partly I suspect because where will all these politicians who created this mess get their post office consultancy work, and suitable pay check, to top up their already generous pensions. Just call me highly cynical and unfortunately old enough, and in a position where I HAVE WATCHED THEM DO IT OVER THE YEARS.

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Old 18th Oct 2020, 17:24
  #6247 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Big_D View Post
Currently hovering in the low 40s. Likely to drop to mid 30s in January-February.
Given that support for (the Johnson /Cummings version of) Brexit is so low, why is it that the government isn't blurring some of their red lines to keep more voters on board with the Brexit project?

Extremism never won an election, something the Conservative party may learn to its cost in four years time.
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 17:31
  #6248 (permalink)  
 
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ATNotts
Given their majority currently, the train wreck will not have an impact, and they have 4 years for something (anything) come to divert current public scrutiny. Wars have helped in the past
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 17:54
  #6249 (permalink)  
 
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I am enjoying Brexit immensely now. The prime movers of the project are so obviously embarrassed at every interview with the imminent failure to conclude a deal. All we need now is a Biden victory with all that means for a US administration with a soft spot for the Emerald Isle and the debacle will be complete.
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 18:02
  #6250 (permalink)  
 
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HM's government has just clarified who will 'prosper mightily' in the event of no-deal Brexit.

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Old 18th Oct 2020, 22:30
  #6251 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e...days-q68s0jqbf

EU expects break in Brexit talks ‘to last days’European Union negotiators expect a pause in trade, security and fishing talks to last a matter of days after the government promised the door was “ajar” for fresh discussions.....

European and British sources expect there to be a “time out” in the negotiations of no more than a week if Mr Barnier moves to reset the process, as expected. “A circuit breaker on Brexit may have a positive effect,” a senior EU diplomatic source said.

Mr Gove said it was up to Mr Barnier to give assurances after a Brussels summit last week gave the government an ultimatum between accepting the EU’s terms or the economic disruption of no deal...... The political headache for Mr Barnier and EU officials will be what sort of public gesture needs to be made after European leaders, led by President Macron, set a hardline tone last week.

In a declaration, EU leaders dropped a pledge to “intensify” talks and called “on the UK to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible”. After the summit, the French president boasted that the new wording was “not meant to make the prime minister happy”....

The government wants Mr Barnier to publicly agree that a deal will require compromise on both sides.

The senior EU diplomatic source added that the bloc does not think the UK has opted for no deal but wants to show that the “endgame” is not being dictated by Brussels. Privately, EU diplomats and officials acknowledge that last week’s summit backfired after the declaration was tightened up by the French and Dutch for internal reasons. “It was not meant as trolling the British,” said the source.



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Old 19th Oct 2020, 06:49
  #6252 (permalink)  
 
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Another day, another virtual cut and paste.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 06:55
  #6253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Mac View Post
ATNotts
Given their majority currently, the train wreck will not have an impact, and they have 4 years for something (anything) come to divert current public scrutiny. Wars have helped in the past
Cheers
Mr Mac
It will have to be something pretty significant; voters do have long memories if something has been done that adversely effects them personally. Think back to the kicking the LibDems got in 2015, 3 years or so after Nick Clegg went along with university tuition fees. 8 years on students from that era, and younger people today will still give that as a reason why they won't vote LibDem, and is a significant factor (aside of a useless former party leader) in their pi$$ poor support nationally today.

The Tories could easily suffer similarly if they put people out of work as a result of pursuing a recklessly hard Brexit; perhaps given public opinion on Brexit at the moment, on any form of Brexit. That won't stop Brexit though now, that is a done deal and the party will have to face that consequence however hard or soft it may turn out to be.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 08:14
  #6254 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
The Tories could easily suffer similarly if they put people out of work as a result of pursuing a recklessly hard Brexit; perhaps given public opinion on Brexit at the moment, on any form of Brexit. .
Sadly I'm not sure TBH..

The Tory spin (that we are already seeing roll into action) will be that a hard, damaging Brexit was due to: the EU/Mr Barnier/UK business did not prepare itself/German car makers did not intervene enough... to make project leave work....

I'm also sure the likes of Mr Grove and Mr Cummings will eventually and quite happily chuck Mr Johnson into the mix with the rest of those they want to blame once he's gone from office:

"Unlike him you can trust us, we are the new management, this mess is nothing to do with us, look over there at that lot.."..

They will say anything and blame anybody to keep the party in power.

..and the associated problem is Mr Murdoch will happily ensure his publications and other media outlets carry that message.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 08:44
  #6255 (permalink)  
 
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It won't work. They own the Brexit mess totally, completely, absolutely. No amount of attempts to rewrite history is going to make a dent in the level of culpability that the current crew will own. Make no mistake, Captain Foresight aka Starmer will already be honing his forensic prosecution skills in readiness for 2021. From my own viewpoint I just see a Schadenfreudefest ahead. Unfortunately my most Brexit supporting friend just popped his clogs so I won't be able to rub it in.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 08:47
  #6256 (permalink)  
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As that nice Mr Gove gets a mention it's nice to learn he's aware of the impending debacle...

From the BBC...."Make no mistake, there are changes coming in just 75 days and time is running out for businesses to act," said cabinet office minister Michael Gove.

"It is on all of us to put in the work now so that we can embrace the new opportunities available to an independent trading nation with control of its own borders, territorial waters and laws.


Also nice to read the tried and tested mantra is still being vomited forth.....
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 09:03
  #6257 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
As that nice Mr Gove gets a mention it's nice to learn he's aware of the impending debacle...

From the BBC...."Make no mistake, there are changes coming in just 75 days and time is running out for businesses to act," said cabinet office minister Michael Gove.

"It is on all of us to put in the work now so that we can embrace the new opportunities available to an independent trading nation with control of its own borders, territorial waters and laws.


Also nice to read the tried and tested mantra is still being vomited forth.....
I wish someone wold press Gove on "what opportunities are available". Notwithstanding the fact that he wouldn't answer the question (politicians rarely do) the facts are that there are no benefits to business and no opportunities created as a result of the changes that take place in +/- 75 days. The control of our borders and laws add nothing but obstacles to the people to whom his statements are aimed, just additional costs and additional disruption.

The only people who may benefit are those who dislike hearing foreign accents and languages in their streets, and who object to the "Polski Sklep" on the street corner.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 09:13
  #6258 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
The only people who may benefit are those who dislike hearing foreign accents and languages in their streets, and who object to the "Polski Sklep" on the street corner.
Shops which are owned by British Asians in many cases and leased to or simply staffed and stocked by Polish people to serve a local need.

When Tesco established a Polish goods isle locally, my sister was disquieted. But she struggled to name what was bothering her, wanting to be open to diversity in principle, but not really liking the idea that it would be expressed in a real sense in her daily life. Now her and her husband have retreated to a closed development by the sea. What do you call white flight from whites? Just plain old xenophobia I guess.

We all pine a little for a a world we used to recognise. Personally, I’d love to get hold of a can of Dandelion & Burdock more easily. But it’s the Coca Cola Company and not the Poles that control the supplied fridges.

Last edited by Torquetalk; 19th Oct 2020 at 09:34.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 09:18
  #6259 (permalink)  
 
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It's all well and good for Gove to say that "....we will ride the turbulence...." as quoted by ORAC above, but when that 'turbulence' involves the virtual elimination of certain industries the consequences are extremely severe. The loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs and the associated plunge in the UK tax take, export revenues and a huge increase in unemployment benefit payments mean that we are looking at meltdown not turbulence as hundreds of thousands of car workers, steel workers, aerospace workers, farmers, fishermen, food industries and the rest all face redundancy.

And it's no good ATNOTTS saying that this is all to protect the City of London as a no deal exit will rule out passporting for UK based financial companies who will therefore face the loss of European business, which as the largest trading block in the world is a HUGE market, thus throwing thousands of financial staff onto the dole as well.

This is a catastrophe of epic proportions facing the country, and could totally destroy the Tory party.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 09:29
  #6260 (permalink)  
 
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See. There is a good side to Brexit.
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