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BREXIT

Old 31st May 2020, 12:03
  #5261 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
Distance and lack of any real benefits are why an UK-Aus trade deal will not have a major effect on either countries economy despite how desperate some are to romanticise about old colonial ties.
Australia's trade future (and present btw) lies with Asia (through RCEP) and the UK still with Europe with whatever deal you concoct with your former EU partners. Everything else will basically be a sideshow.
The UK is currently Australia's seventh-largest trading partner.

So yeah, nothing to see here.....
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Old 31st May 2020, 13:38
  #5262 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by currawong View Post
The UK is currently Australia's seventh-largest trading partner.

So yeah, nothing to see here.....
You've summed it up exactly.

UK-Australia trade is worth $26 billion AUD (UK is actually Australia's 8th largest trading partner)
Australia to the proposed RCEP nation trade (Asian region) is worth $485 billion AUD (19 times more than UK trade) and includes Australia's 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th largest trading partners. Trade to this region makes up 83% of Australia's total trade (not even including India which may end up joining the agreement)

Similarly UK-Australia trade at 16 billion GBP makes Australia the UK's 19th largest partner.
UK-EU trade is worth 615 billion GBP, 38 times more than their trade with Australia and 49% of their total trade (Australia is worth 1% of the UK's total trade).

So even if a trade deal between the UK and Australia increases trade somewhat between the two it will still be overall insignificant to each country compared to the value of trading with their regional neighbours.
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Old 31st May 2020, 13:45
  #5263 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
You've summed it exactly.

UK-Australia trade is worth $26 billion AUD (UK is actually Australia's 8th largest trading partner)
Australia to the proposed RCEP nation trade (Asian region) is worth $485 billion AUD (19 times more than UK trade) and includes Australia's 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th largest trading partners. Trade to this region makes up 83% of Australia's total trade (not even including India which may end up joining the agreement)

Similarly UK-Australia trade at 16 billion GBP makes Australia the UK's 19th largest partner.
UK-EU trade is worth 615 billion GBP, 38 times more than their trade with Australia and 49% of their total trade (Australia is worth 1% of the UK's total trade).

So even if a trade deal between the UK and Australia increases trade somewhat between the two it will still be overall insignificant to each country compared to the value of trading with their regional neighbours.
Indeed, and thanks for putting that into context.

As for agreement with the UK's regional neighbours, the following seems to have slipped past the usual daily extracts from the Times. Must be the sunny weather again.

Speaking ahead of the start of the fourth round of Brexit talks this week, which could determine whether an agreement on a trade deal can be reached before the end of the transition period on December 31, Barnier said: “The UK has been taking a step back — two steps back, three steps back — from the original commitments. The UK negotiators need to be fully in line with what the prime minister signed up to with us. Because 27 heads of state and government and the European parliament do not have a short memory.

“We remember very clearly the text which we negotiated with Boris Johnson. And we just want to see that complied with. To the letter... And if that doesn’t happen, there will be no agreement.”
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Old 31st May 2020, 13:50
  #5264 (permalink)  
 
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Sallyann:-

Looks as though Cummings has been at work then, formulate an agreement (rules), then ignore them at some later stage. Sound familiar?
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Old 31st May 2020, 22:39
  #5265 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Sallyann:-

Looks as though Cummings has been at work then, formulate an agreement (rules), then ignore them at some later stage. Sound familiar?
hoho I might have to use that one
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Old 31st May 2020, 22:58
  #5266 (permalink)  
 
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formulate an agreement (rules), then ignore them at some later stage
Perhaps DC could be immortalized for his actions in naming such an approach 'the Cummings maneuver' or something somewhat punchier.
Better naming examples sought from other JB contributors ...........
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 08:08
  #5267 (permalink)  
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Nite that the political declaration was not, and is not, legally binding at the insistence of the EU.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/m...alks-bwmzsbsmp


Michel Barnier and EU accused of dragging out Brexit talks

Downing Street has accused the European Union of trying to drag out Brexit negotiations until it was too late to do a deal as both sides traded political insults ahead of a critical month in the talks.".........

In
an interview with The Sunday Times Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, accused Boris Johnson of backsliding on commitments he made in the political declaration. He warned the prime minister that there would not be an “agreement at any cost”......

Brussels has been quietly pushing for UK agreement for an extension to the transition period to give the talks more time to reach a comprehensive agreement. This has been ruled out by
Mr Johnsonwho has said that the UK would walk away and prepare for a no-trade deal Brexit on December 31......In a statement Downing Street suggested that unless the EU gave ground on its insistence that the UK must sign up to a so-called level playing field on standards soon then it would be too late to conclude an agreement.

“They need to put some political reality into their approach and appreciate that they cannot use their usual tactic of delay to drag the talks into the autumn,” said a government source. “By then it will be too late, as businesses need to know what to prepare for with as much time as is practicable.”......

Someone close to the negotiations added: “The political declaration clearly sets out that a separate agreement on fish should be in force in July, in advance of the other agreements, but the EU continue to push for one single overarching agreement and to hold up the deadline. They clearly need to reconsider their position to avoid backsliding on the agreement made last autumn, and stop making demands incompatible with our future status as an independent coastal state.”......


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Old 1st Jun 2020, 08:47
  #5268 (permalink)  
 
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Welcome back ORAC. I hope you didn't get sunburn on the beach yesterday.
The point about the fishing agreement is that both sides have made their positions clear. It's a bit like two vehicles meeting on a narrow lane. Nothing happens until one gives way.
And if one vehicle is several times bigger than the other...
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 08:58
  #5269 (permalink)  
 
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It seems more likely than not that Cummins' finger prints are all over what looks like a slightly premature relaxation of the Covid-19 lockdown in UK, and are certainly all over the government's strategy in the current negotiation with the EU.

It's quite possible that if the former turns out to be a mistake and a second wave of Covid-19 arise, and his policies on the latter result in a total breakdown and exit of transition with no agreement, he could be held almost solely responsible for a double whammy that could lead to a catastrophic economic crash. if I were him, in that situation, I'd head for the battlements of Barnard Castle and barricade myself in!
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 09:26
  #5270 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone who knows anything about trade negotiations knows that it is not a good idea to impose unnecessary deadlines in order to satisfy political dogma.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 09:29
  #5271 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bergerie1 View Post
Anyone who knows anything about trade negotiations knows that it is not a good idea to impose unnecessary deadlines in order to satisfy political dogma.
And let me think, which side is imposing an unnecessary deadline? Ahh yes, that's right, the UK.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 09:43
  #5272 (permalink)  
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The UK isn’t setting any deadline on trade talks, just stating plainly we are not going to simultaneously negotiate an extension which would cost us £B a month.

Come the end of the year, if no deal has yet been reached, the UK will default to using WTO rules in trade with the EU - and continue to negotiate a mutually acceptable trade agreement.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 09:49
  #5273 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The UK isn’t setting any deadline on trade talks, just stating plainly we are not going to simultaneously negotiate an extension which would cost us £B a month.

Come the end of the year, if no deal has yet been reached, the UK will default to using WTO rules in trade with the EU - and continue to negotiate a mutually acceptable trade agreement.
And only in the eyes of a blinkered dogmatist is such an outcome in any way acceptable, especially given the hit that we are going to take as a result of Covid-19. Of course the EU is in a similar dilemma, but it appears more willing to struggle on with the negotiations and much as I'm sure they'd like rid of the UK, are prepared to consider extension to cushion the blow both are going to suffer. It is the UK, and Cummings primarily, who are responsible, 100% if we leave transition on WTO terms at the end of December. It will be Johnson and the Conservative party that will pay the price of Cummings' dogma.

Incidentally, do you imagine a calculation of how many £B a month leaving on WTO terms may cost the UK? I expect they have, and I suspect Cummings and the hardliners have said it is a hit worth taking. When the public realise what has been done in their name, they may not necessarily wholeheartedly agree.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 09:55
  #5274 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
It seems more likely than not that Cummins' finger prints are all over what looks like a slightly premature relaxation of the Covid-19 lockdown in UK, and are certainly all over the government's strategy in the current negotiation with the EU.

It's quite possible that if the former turns out to be a mistake and a second wave of Covid-19 arise, and his policies on the latter result in a total breakdown and exit of transition with no agreement, he could be held almost solely responsible for a double whammy that could lead to a catastrophic economic crash. if I were him, in that situation, I'd head for the battlements of Barnard Castle and barricade myself in!
Fingerprints or not, it's Boris who will carry the can.

As the last two Conservative leaders found to their cost, you can either do what's best for the country or what's best for the party. The party won't allow both.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 11:15
  #5275 (permalink)  
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Welcome back ORAC. I hope you didn't get sunburn on the beach yesterday.
Four hours in the park. Never go to the beach, even on holiday. Sand gets everywhere and here it’s even worse, just large pebbles. And at the present full of people whilst the little park outside my front door is usually nearly empty. To be truthful I’ve been using for over a month - the local police turn a blind eye as long as it’s just local families self-distancing.

Sorry it’s on its side - can’t work out how to rotate.


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Old 1st Jun 2020, 12:48
  #5276 (permalink)  

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There we go!
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 12:51
  #5277 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ncil-of-Europe

The former Labour Party leader failed to be selected as one of the eight Parliamentary Labour Party members to represent the party on its delegation to the Council of Europe. There were 10 applicants and eight places.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 12:53
  #5278 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry itís on its side - canít work out how to rotate.
Ease back on the stick


You should get a microlight in there ORAC... crossed batons at the end tell you when to stop
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 13:10
  #5279 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC,

​​​​​​ "...the UK will default to using WTO rules in trade with the EU - ..."

And does the average dogma driven Brexiteer realise just how much damage that will cause to UK industry and the economy?

Don't dismiss this as Project Fear part 2. A WTO exit will hurt and hurt hard, even without the devastating effects of Covid-19 on the economy.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 14:34
  #5280 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Ease back on the stick

You should get a microlight in there ORAC... crossed batons at the end tell you when to stop
That's the AIDS memorial.

I wonder where/when there will be a COVID-19 memorial?

edit: or a Brexit memorial, if we can afford one.
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