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BREXIT

Old 8th Apr 2019, 07:34
  #461 (permalink)  
 
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Ah NoelEvans, but the tv coverage at the time lives on .... and on ... and ....
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 07:42
  #462 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Alsacienne View Post
Ah NoelEvans, but the tv coverage at the time lives on .... and on ... and ....
As does other key historical events events in news and entertainment.

Events of May 1968, student revolt that began in a suburb of Paris and was soon joined by a general strike eventually involving some 10 million workers. During much of May 1968, Paris was engulfed in the worst rioting since the Popular Front era of the 1930s, and the rest of France was at a standstill.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 07:44
  #463 (permalink)  
 
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The Irish Backstop is the single and most obvious reason for the present suggested Withdrawal Agreement not being accepted in Parliament. The Irish Backstop is intended to avoid the possibility of a hard border in Ireland after the end of next year. Maintaining the Irish Backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, and hence not having it accepted by Parliament, means that it is very likely to have that hard border in Ireland after the end of this week. Surely dropping the Irish Backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement is the single most simple solution to helping EVERYONE to be better off for at least the next 20 months? Especially the Irish. But is that too obvious for politicians to see?
Whilst it's true that the backstop wouldn't come into play until the end of transition, if there hasn't been an agreement on a future trading relationship by the end of the transition period, then a backstop would be a necessity since the Ireland / Northern Ireland border will at that stage become the EU's external border. So it is vital that such a mechanism is in place before that deadline to avoid a hard border at the end of transition. Those who believe it is simply a case of scrubbing out mention of the backstop in the agreement are deluded.

So much mistrust of the UK has developed within the EU as a result of the negotiation, reinforced by the deadlock in parliament, and the extremists in the Tory party, that the feels is needs a cast iron solution as an integral part of the exit agreements, to save the likes of Johnson, JR-M or his ilk undoing what has been agreed. This also has to be the principal worry of Labour, or any other party in negotiating a compromise with the government.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 07:51
  #464 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Alsacienne View Post
Ah NoelEvans, but the tv coverage at the time lives on .... and on ... and ....
Only in the minds of old [email protected] The young folk now know nowt about a' that.

In France however, things are different. I find it hilarious when people talk about Britain 'not being prepared' for delays at Dover over Brexit! Dover is probably one of the places most prepared for delays after having had so much practice dealing with regular French strikes! Just put another 'French strike' plan into action and it will be a well practised process and things will feel like a normal summer holiday period.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 07:58
  #465 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Only in the minds of old [email protected] The young folk now know nowt about a' that.

In France however, things are different. I find it hilarious when people talk about Britain 'not being prepared' for delays at Dover over Brexit! Dover is probably one of the places most prepared for delays after having had so much practice dealing with regular French strikes! Just put another 'French strike' plan into action and it will be a well practised process and things will feel like a normal summer holiday period.
I thought your location was Yorkshire, not Cloud Cuckoo Land!

A permanent contraflow on the M20 hasn't been put in place merely to inconvenience the travelling public. Even a short delay on each commercial vehicle going through the Port of Dover or Eurotunnel will result in massive, ongoing congestion that will put previous "operation stacks" into the shade. The French have been revolting on many occasions, and have caused severe short term issues, resulting in extensive chartering of aircraft to move perishables and components into UK, which results in extra costs, and potentially layoffs and shortages. In my previous days in logistics I was involved in just such operations. What would happen in the event of no deal would be that these delays would become permanent, and in a fairly short time unmanageable. Those are the logistical FACTS, not project fear or wishful thinking.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 08:02
  #466 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Whilst it's true that the backstop wouldn't come into play until the end of transition, if there hasn't been an agreement on a future trading relationship by the end of the transition period, then a backstop would be a necessity since the Ireland / Northern Ireland border will at that stage become the EU's external border. So it is vital that such a mechanism is in place before that deadline to avoid a hard border at the end of transition. Those who believe it is simply a case of scrubbing out mention of the backstop in the agreement are deluded.

...
So, having a hard border in Ireland after the end of this week is better than waiting 20 months?
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 08:07
  #467 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
... What would happen in the event of no deal would be that these delays would become permanent, and in a fairly short time unmanageable. Those are the logistical FACTS, not project fear or wishful thinking.
They would only become permanent if business, on both sides, did not manage to bash some common sense into politicians, again on both sides. The problem is that I am struggling to think of any politician anywhere that is capable of common sense...
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 08:36
  #468 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Only in the minds of old [email protected] The young folk now know nowt about a' that.

In France however, things are different. I find it hilarious when people talk about Britain 'not being prepared' for delays at Dover over Brexit! Dover is probably one of the places most prepared for delays after having had so much practice dealing with regular French strikes! Just put another 'French strike' plan into action and it will be a well practised process and things will feel like a normal summer holiday period.
When C4 news interviewed the man who actually manages Dover port, plus a few international hauliers, non of them were convulsed with laughter about the significant impact the delays would induce......as these were just some of the people who are directly affected, and who therefore know about the factual reality in their professional capacity, why do you think they were concerned ? .......and why, given the ramifications of these potential delays, are so many organisations now stockpiling ....?.

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Old 8th Apr 2019, 09:24
  #469 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
They would only become permanent if business, on both sides, did not manage to bash some common sense into politicians, again on both sides. The problem is that I am struggling to think of any politician anywhere that is capable of common sense...
There we can agree, but businesses aren't involved in geopolitical issues, they do business. There isn't an open border ANYWHERE where a customs union isn't in place. Just imagine for a moment that you're a business looking to import some high value stuff into the EU where there is a high customs tariff, but no duties in UK. Best way to get around the duties would be to ship them into UK then drive them unhindered over the border into the ROI, and hence into the single market. That is why a hard border is required, it's not optional, unless we have a customs union with the EU.

Was this discussed, during the 2016 referendum? I doubt it; certainly not in such stark terms. It was going to be so easy, wasn't it? It's actually a total pig in a poke! You can't just blame the leave side for not being straightforward with the public, the remain campaign for not raising such intractable issues are equally culpable. The standard of debate was base, surrounding as it did public fears on migration on one side, and economic Armageddon on the other and it is that that has brought us to where we are today.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 09:58
  #470 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Thanks racedo, especially after some clueless @r$e a while ago on this Thread tried to say that Britain is the Venezuela of Europe!!!!

Some interesting figures there, such as the comparison between French and British joblessness. I will quote a 'Nederlander' that I spoke to recently: "Striking is in the French DNA".

Sally, maybe because they need our dosh?
They are historical figures rather than future projections therefore the assumption that UK will emerge unscathed and buoyant from Brexit is not one I can share.

UK relies heavily on City of London to bail its trading figures out, not unsurprisingly many of these companies are jumping ship into the EU.

Said it in the past that 1 lost job in City of London paying 250k (not a high salary there) would need 30 "New" jobs created at 25k a year just to pay the same amount of PAYE/NI. The excludes the benefits from VAT that someone earning 250k a year give the Govt. So guess another 15-20 jobs at 25k.

Brexit lag on job losses has not really happened yet but JLR / Nissan / Honda give some idea of the scale and that is 10,000 jobs paying more than 25k a year.

UK makes little that rest of world wants, plus many producers are not UK owned companies, as JLR / Nissan and Honda have shown the movement of jobs to somewhere else is relatively easy.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 10:03
  #471 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
"Striking is in the French DNA".
Strikes used in France as a way of venting anger at Govt or world, strike, talk, agree a settlement and everybody goes back to work.

Look at how France closed its coal mines V UK as an example.

Govt is of the people, by the people, rather than in UK where Govt is the establishment and electoral system designed to see it maintains power.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 10:21
  #472 (permalink)  
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I suppose there are parallels between the British RMT and French ATC. 😇
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 11:34
  #473 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
I suppose there are parallels between the British RMT and French ATC. 😇
Yes, they have some latitudes in common.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 12:35
  #474 (permalink)  
 
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As the clueless person who made the UK is the Venezuala of Europe- which in political terms at the moment is an entirely correct simile - no effective government endless rallies and disputes=-what actually is s the difference . And having spent 35 years working on very large multinational projects and business in general I think i have a reasonable view on the reality of the Uk as seen form overseas and not through the backward looking eyes of the daily mail. You will also see the Venezuala comparison made in assorted foreign (so therefore wrong) media from time to time .

We still get back tot he point why are the Government so terrified of a second referendum. There can only three outcomes

Leave wins - two referenda in favour-may be the wrong answer for me but hard to argue with

its very very close either way-status quo

remain wins but by a bigger percentage-well go back to the will of the people argument. I mean in what walk of life would you ask question three years ago and get one answer and three years on with different demographic and far greater awareness but say oh no Ill stick with the answer years ago -its plain nonsense.

And as someone has pointed out our economy is very very very dependent on the City but while it used to be a geat British institution nowadays it is a great global instituition and the Brits are just the help-highly paid help but they are not the ones taking the strategic decisions . And nowadays while Frankfurt is virtually an English speaking so is Paris and language was a big reason for the Yanks to locate in London along with the Chinese and Japanese , We have already pissed of the Japanese with us , in their eyes reneging on a deal , the Chinese just dont like us anyway due to Hong Kong and you never want to do business with Americans from a potion of weakness-Venezuala still sound so clueless?
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 13:54
  #475 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
So, having a hard border in Ireland after the end of this week is better than waiting 20 months?
But remember. A hard border between north and south Ireland breaks the GFA.
In point of fact, the GFA is an International Agreement and would trump a no deal.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 14:13
  #476 (permalink)  
 
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I see our glorious leader is off to the Continent tomorrow on the latest phase of her "Gullible's Travels".

Having been stitched up by Labour she is seeing if Merkel and Macron can do a better job.

And in further news apparently this year there looms a Gregorian Calendar Paradox whereby the UK will see the end of May before the end of April! 😎
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 15:41
  #477 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Yes, they have some latitudes in common.
attitudes and longitudes, not latitudes
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 16:05
  #478 (permalink)  
 
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But remember. A hard border between north and south Ireland breaks the GFA.
In point of fact, the GFA is an International Agreement and would trump a no deal.
Have you read the GFA? It makes no specific mention of border customs etc. only that matters of mutual interest shall be negotiated between Belfast and Dublin - no mention of Brussels.

Anyway, all this talk of 'no deal' rather ignores the fact that in all circumstances we are leaving with no deal - only an agreement to pay the EU 39 billion euros for a 2-year transition during which only then they will graciously agree to discuss trade .(in contravention of Article 50 Clause 2, which requires the EU and the departing part to negotiate taking into account the future relationship). The EU has (understandably) had 2 firm objectives throughout, either to ensure that the UK suffers so badly in the agreement that no other nation will ever try this again, or to get the UK to change its mind. They may have ended up with an even better result than they hoped - a UK bound to EU rules while excluded for any influence.

Meanwhile, paradoxically, UK manufacturing and employment is up, and the EU is in worsening recession.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 16:36
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As is indicated by Mrs Mays visit the Eu is not a state it is an association of independent countries and all major issues have to be agreed by the leaders of those countries in the Council of Ministers

It is also the reason why comments about how much the Eu might lose are pointless because each individual state doesn't lose that much but we bear the whole burden of any loss.

Equally the Eu as whole may be looking like it is in recession butt hats not the case everywhere-certainly not in the east where Poland and Czechia are doing very nicely thank you with the latter having the lowest unemployment rate in the EU mostly with proper jobs not like the modern slavery of zero hours contracts and delivering pizzas that the UK loves so much

of course if we are doing well then thats probably because we are actually in the Eu since most of our trade by a long chalk is with them . Mind you what we actually do manufacture as opposed to what we manufacture for Chinese Japanese French German Swedish owned companies I dont know. RR aero engines apart it cant be very much that is British run and British owned (and a big thank you to Lufthansa for a very very timely order for RR engines this week-perhaps some hidden synergy between RR Aero and RR cars the latter being German owned of course
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 17:46
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
Have you read the GFA? It makes no specific mention of border customs etc. only that matters of mutual interest shall be negotiated between Belfast and Dublin - no mention of Brussels.
.
UK exiting Brexit and not negotiating on the border is breaching GFA................. UK has not sought to negotiate border with Dublin.
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