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BREXIT

Old 29th Dec 2019, 02:17
  #4161 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Steepclimb View Post
Actually you're right. I give him too much credit. The tragedy is that he achieved his ambition. To be PM.

He's made it. But it won't be to benefit of Britain or even England. Or anyone frankly.

I find it hard to imagine that he ever thought he would preside over the end of the UK.
again I have to disagree. It’s been to the benefit of his Borisness. It’ll be interesting to see what Cummings does to ruin the country. Whilst my employer is “British” (ish) I have the ability to bail out to a different country if I need to. Commuting will be an arse but I need to look after me and mine first so if I need to bail I will. I won’t be the first or last (a fantastic pub the way. Well first and last actually).

thats the one advantage I have over the grumpies that were desperate for this outcome. I can bail. I don’t want to. Despite not being British I love this country. My family love this country. My children are British (and A.N. Other European nationality). But we can leave as and when we need to. Those that can worse afford to not will feel that pain first. And they voted for what the daily mail and the sun told them to.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 09:51
  #4162 (permalink)  
 
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Andrewn

Thanks for your considered reply recently.

I recognise the identification of [Brexit driving] issues you listed and agree broadly with them. Where I am sceptical is in the causality (opinion already given) and solution/s. Particularly with resect to future economic wellbeing of the UK, I just don't see the rationale behind the idea that you leave a huge trading block to increase trade and do so more successfully and freely. In fact, the libertarian promise promoted by the likes of JRM and his like looks like a wrecking ball for those very parts of the UK that have had a guts full .

If the argument is that Britain wants to be more protective of its identity and have more control internally, that will require a much increased element of state intervention and protectionist policies. But most economists seem to agree that protectionism leads to lower trade volumes, not only between countries, but also within the respective countries, in which case it is simply hard to see how that can lead to anything other than reduced economic volume for Britain and that in turn would leave less room to borrow and finance any desired model.

Of course the other possibility is an even more libertarian model: reducing as many barriers to trade as possible, low tax base, lowering protective controls against the more ruthless excesses of capitalism. But as the UK has already gone a long way in that direction for four decades, selling many national assets into private and often foreign hands, it is hard to see how much room for manoeuvre there is in that direction without making things even more ugly than they already are. Ugly as in poor. And poverty is a coat of many patches, covering much, but being manifest for what it is.

Contrary to popular media depiction, it appears that the most significant element of the 2016 Brexit vote were white, well-positioned voters in South England. Of course, this element of the electorate will probably fare better whatever the trends result from Brexit. But I am not concerned about them, it is the majority of other citizens and their future that troubles me. I find it very hard to imagine a believable image of a shared notion of Britishness emerging from this. Somebody's going to throw their no longer distracting toys out of the pram.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 12:29
  #4163 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cornish Jack View Post
CJ - your logic is completely flawed I'm afraid, please give it a rest.
Interesting statement, based, like so many responses here on nothing but personal, totally flawed perceptions. You have absolutey NO idea of my likes/dislikes/politics other than what I post here and your conclusions derive from assumptions coloured by your own prejudices. Such deliberative processes debase any form of debate and have all the logical value of playground temper tantrums. A suggestion - just read the words, try to understand what's written, not your 'knee-jerk reaction to it. A vain hope. perhaps but "politics is the art of the possible! ???
Don't make me laugh CJ. I really couldn't care less what political leanings you have but your argument about "the popular vote" that you've been banging on about is totally pointless.
Your condescending attitude seeps into your posts, in particular post 4132 to YT - this forms my and I'm sure others perceptions of you.
I don't really participate that much in debates here, I get my popcorn out and watch from the sidelines mostly, but your ranting about the electoral system reminds me of the protests in London after the election and the champagne socialists carrying placards "not my PM", "no to racism", "refugees welcome" etc.
These ARE REAL temper tantrums! Protesting AGAINST the results of a democratic vote. If Corbyn had won I'd have accepted the result. I wouldn't have been happy about it, but that's the way it is.
Just like in the US and the argument Democrats won the popular vote. Pointless, when the voting system is such that the final result is not based purely on votes garnered by each party as I demonstrated from the figures in the 1997 election.
Are there flaws? Yes of course - there are pros and cons to every electoral system but this one has served the country quite well for a very long time.
Maybe start another thread then this one can be kept on Brexit and we could have a good debate about the pros and cons of differing systems.

As for Brexit, this has been updated https://www.euronews.com/2018/12/19/...no-deal-brexit
This coming year is going to be interesting. The UK government has a much stronger negotiating hand now, but the time table is tight.
The reasons for leaving the EU still resonate with the electorate and these issues will have to be addressed and immigration is still the big issue.
Interesting video I stumbled across yesterday, recorded only 10 months after the referendum which gives the many reasons for Brexit.

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Old 29th Dec 2019, 14:11
  #4164 (permalink)  
 
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the results of a democratic vote.
Funny old word, that! Used, used,, over-used and used again to try to justify what is mainly unjustifiable but ... never, ever, a definition! How strange! You could, of course, make yourself unique amongst JB contributors and educate us with your deeply considered, popcorn inspired offering. I would wait with 'bated breath but the lungs aren't what they used to be.
VERY pretty pictures and chart and I'm sure it was worth the effort ... Just how many of the UKs (approx) 67 millon citizens voted to Leave the EU? Just asking, you see.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 14:17
  #4165 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cornish Jack View Post
.. Just how many of the UKs (approx) 67 millon citizens voted to Leave the EU? Just asking, you see.
More than voted to remain.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 14:29
  #4166 (permalink)  
 
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More than voted to remain.
Indisputable - BUT of the 67 million, just how many (in round NUMBERS or Percentages) was that - or is shyness or not wishing to boast, holding you back?
Presumably, Filler Dent is wading manfully through the OED?
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 14:37
  #4167 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cornish Jack View Post
More than voted to remain.
Indisputable - BUT of the 67 million, just how many (in round NUMBERS or Percentages) was that - or is shyness or not wishing to boast, holding you back?
Presumably, Filler Dent is wading manfully through the OED?
The country doesn't care about your constant whinging about a corrupt voting system or the referendum result.
If the voting system is corrupt, then start a legal case, take it to the Supreme Court. If you are right then it is all change. Put your money where your mouth is. I'll wait.

How many people voted for M Thatcher to be leader of the Conservative Party?
How many people voted for T Blair to be leader of the Labour Party?

All corrupt is it?
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 14:37
  #4168 (permalink)  
 
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CJ: of the total population in 2016 of approximately – 65,111,143 only 46,499,537 were eligible to vote, of those approximately 33,568,184 bothered and 25,359 spoilt their ballot papers.

Of those that actually voted 17,410,742 voted leave which was 52% of the eligible voters, but to answer your question: the leave vote was just under 27% of the total population, however the remain vote was just under 25% of the total population, therefore remain still lost.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 15:07
  #4169 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
but to answer your question: the leave vote was just under 27% of the total population, however the remain vote was just under 25% of the total population, therefore remain still lost.
But the remainers didn't lose in a way that suits CJ.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 15:16
  #4170 (permalink)  
 
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Guys,
Obviously the British vote system idiosyncrasies are so err, peculiar that one could discuss vote results forever.
Now what I do see is that the British public still has his eyes in the rear view mirror, and not many people in the UK have the slightest idea of what's to come next.

Agreed, studying history is great for educating people, but not sure re-writing biographies of Blair, Thatcher, Wilson (!) will be of great help with sorting out those Brexit issues.
The calibre of the politicians you chose has changed.

Did your government tell you what they intend to do on the 1st of February ? On the 2nd ?
Are you OK with how they are preparing to negotiate ? With what they'll have to concede ? What they are wishing from the EU ?
Have experienced trade dealers been hired ? Have new studies been made as to the impact of the different possible deals ?

Please enough with "Switzerland" pipe dream, they don't have fishing ground issues to settle. And they do contribute to the EU ;-)

Last edited by Fly Aiprt; 29th Dec 2019 at 15:23. Reason: Addition
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 15:31
  #4171 (permalink)  
 
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Well I for one keep my eye on various sites for info, like these for example, and associated links from those as well:

https://www.gov.uk/prepare-eu-exit

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres.../en/IP_19_1813

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/eu-exit-no-deal-preparations-for-higher-education-institutions/eu-exit-no-deal-preparations-for-higher-education-institutions

Last edited by Exrigger; 29th Dec 2019 at 15:46. Reason: Links not working properly, hopefully no duplicates now
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 16:15
  #4172 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cornish Jack View Post
More than voted to remain.
Indisputable - BUT of the 67 million, just how many (in round NUMBERS or Percentages) was that - or is shyness or not wishing to boast, holding you back?
Presumably, Filler Dent is wading manfully through the OED?
So what you’re saying is that all 1 year olds, all 2 year olds etc should all have been allowed to vote. Do you not accept the principle that there has to be a list of eligible voters and that that number will inevitably be less than 67 million?
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 16:20
  #4173 (permalink)  
 
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Exrigger,
I'm afraid the linked pages are long outdated.

Press release25 March 2019Brussels

Brexit preparedness: EU completes preparations for possible “no-deal” scenario on 12 April

The prepareEU exit has not been updated for months, and not very informative :

Checks for all types of travel

Stay up to date

The UK is leaving the EU. This page tells you how to prepare for Brexit and will be updated if anything changes.

Sign up for email alerts and check travel advice for the country you’re visiting to get the latest information.

Nothing more precise re your Govt preparation ? You really believe they are at work ?
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 16:58
  #4174 (permalink)  
 
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Hi Fly Aiprt: I did preface my post with the following:
Well I for one keep my eye on various sites for info, like these for example, and associated links from those as well
However, if something like the EU data has been agreed and put in place, then it is current until something comes along and requires it to be updated, which has not happened yet, so I expect the EU will roll out those arrangements should the UK leave the EU by default into WTO rules, as will the UK arrangements detailed in the UK government website for a default exit.

Here are some more recent links from the ones already used as examples of where I look. I have provided links to these sites before, when considered necessary.

They are updated quite frequently as things progress/change, hence why one might consider them invalid at time of my posting, again it is to be noted that if nothing requires updating then the information in the links is still valid as they are the most current data on the subject:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit-pre...explanation_en

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/about-u...european-union

https://www.gov.uk/search/news-and-c...4-5f2438369eea

https://www.gov.uk/search/policy-pap...4-5f2438369eea

https://www.gov.uk/search/guidance-a...4-5f2438369eea
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 17:18
  #4175 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post

However, if something like the EU data has been agreed and put in place, then it is current until something comes along and requires it to be updated, which has not happened yet, so I expect the EU will roll out those arrangements should the UK leave the EU by default into WTO rules, as will the UK arrangements detailed in the UK government website for a default exit.
Exrigger, thanks for responding.
Not trying to make a point or disprove anything. Of course some of those websites give information on what's going on : meeting with residents in Italy, last deal with Morocco, etc.
But looking for some information as to the degree of preparedness or the intentions of your government in the Brexit negotiation, I cannot refrain from a feeling of them not being ready for whatever they might desire from those negotiations...
Is it just me ?

Last edited by Fly Aiprt; 29th Dec 2019 at 17:44. Reason: Typo
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 17:27
  #4176 (permalink)  
 
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Is it just me ?
Very probably.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 17:36
  #4177 (permalink)  
 
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Fly Aiprt, no it is not just you, and I see what you are getting at now, both sides have got plans in place for a no deal exit, which one EU document I linked to appeared to believe that that is going to be the final outcome, and if they do think that, it does not bode well for any agreements in the transition period between the EU and UK, however I agree that there is not much in way of what the UK is going to negotiate for in detail from February next year, or for that matter what the EU will agree to.

But I suppose that will come out once those negotiations start in February and would assume that it will become clear once the Withdrawal Agreement is in place, without which neither side can proceed to the next stage and it might be considered a waste of time spending effort on that part of leaving if we still have not officially left at the end of January 2020 because the Withdrawal Agreement is not accepted and ratified by that date.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 17:40
  #4178 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rogerg View Post
Very probably.
Rogerg, like British humour ;-)
I suppose it is not your case, but there must be millions of Brits that don't have a clue, but are sure the Govt is up to the task and well prepared etc...

Or...is it just me?

Last edited by Fly Aiprt; 29th Dec 2019 at 17:53. Reason: Typo
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 17:50
  #4179 (permalink)  
 
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Or...is it just me?
Who knows, we will both find out soon. I hope for the best but some others hope for the worst.
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Old 29th Dec 2019, 17:52
  #4180 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
But I suppose that will come out once those negotiations start in February and would assume that it will become clear once the Withdrawal Agreement is in place, without which neither side can proceed to the next stage and it might be considered a waste of time spending effort on that part of leaving if we still have not officially left at the end of January 2020 because the Withdrawal Agreement is not accepted and ratified by that date.
All conditions for ratification seem fulfilled, but with BJ you are never immune from a lousy trick...

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