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BREXIT

Old 27th Nov 2019, 09:09
  #3881 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Originally Posted by Just a spotter View Post
IMHO, this clip sums up Brexit, those who propose it and support it. A total lack of research, preparation or basic understanding. All just bluff and bluster.https://twitter.com/Channel4News/sta...86821848899584

JAS
Demanding empirical evidence for an event which hasnít happened. He clearly thought he had her on the ropes with that challenge. But not knowing she a professor of economics obscured that ridiculous faux pas.

How could people be so gullible as to send him to represent them? ItĎs like employing someone to do carpentry because they say they like wood.
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Old 27th Nov 2019, 10:00
  #3882 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Torquetalk View Post

How could people be so gullible as to send him to represent them?
I really hope someone finds an answer to that before the 12th of December..
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Old 27th Nov 2019, 11:13
  #3883 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Torquetalk View Post

How could people be so gullible as to ....
This question has been nagging many people around the world for 3-4 years, and not only concerning UK MEPs...

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Old 28th Nov 2019, 06:52
  #3884 (permalink)  
 
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How 2020 pans out

Anyone who is seriously interested in what is involved in terms of negotiations may want to read this latest from Sir Ivan Rogers.

https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/gho...ure-full-text/

For those who havenít heard of him, he was our Chief negotiator to the EU for a few years before he resigned a couple of years ago.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 10:09
  #3885 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by zoigberg View Post
Anyone who is seriously interested in what is involved in terms of negotiations may want to read this latest from Sir Ivan Rogers.

https://policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/gho...ure-full-text/

For those who havenít heard of him, he was our Chief negotiator to the EU for a few years before he resigned a couple of years ago.
great piece. Thanks for posting that. Much of what he writes describes the situation as I have followed and understand it, even if I disagree about his point about the UK economy needing to have its own diversified regulatory framework due to the importance of the financial sector. Sounds like a recipe for more money laundering and inadequate oversight of money movements to me.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 15:50
  #3886 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Torquetalk View Post
great piece. Thanks for posting that. Much of what he writes describes the situation as I have followed and understand it, even if I disagree about his point about the UK economy needing to have its own diversified regulatory framework due to the importance of the financial sector. Sounds like a recipe for more money laundering and inadequate oversight of money movements to me.
You may be sure there is one group of people who will do very well out of Brexit.

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Old 28th Nov 2019, 16:02
  #3887 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Torquetalk View Post
great piece. Thanks for posting that. Much of what he writes describes the situation as I have followed and understand it,
+ 1.
Long read but really worth it.
Thanks zoigberg.
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 08:20
  #3888 (permalink)  
 
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+1 on that. An ice-cold analysis. I don't think I've read anything as sober and educating for a long time. What I find remarkable is what I read as a pledge to the EU negotiators and heads of states, to be gentle on the UK for the sake of the future.

In summary, there is going to be very little time available and most likely outcomes at the end of 2020 are either a hard Brexit or an ultra-light-deal-Brexit.

I think it's going to be a hard Brexit because of the time constraints. Whatever gets agreed needs to be ratified by 27 different parliaments. Even if there are agreed deals in place late next year, one or more of these parliaments may not ratify in time. On Jan 1st 2021, the UK may find itself with no trade agreements with it's neighbors for a number of weeks or months.
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 08:56
  #3889 (permalink)  
 
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The UK will be pleading for an extension* to the period, just as it did for Art.50.

*or two, or
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 10:44
  #3890 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
The UK will be pleading for an extension* to the period, just as it did for Art.50.

*or two, or
Most probable.
When confronted with the difficulties of negotiating in earnest on hundreds of deals, and the growing discontent of their electorate, the government - whoever they they'll happen to be - will cave, as they did on most everything with the withdrawal agreement.
Maybe they'll even fail to ratify this WA...
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 11:12
  #3891 (permalink)  
 
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It was interesting to see Boris at a radio interview this morning admitting he does not know how many trade deals his government have arranged or with which countries.
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 11:15
  #3892 (permalink)  
 
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I don't think you understand. As things look now, UK is leaving on Jan 31st, and article 50 is over.

Then, the deadline for seeking an extension of the end-2020 deadline is mid 2020 and Boris will not do that.

After that there can be no more extensions, according to the paper that's stipulated by "treaty", I presume that is the fundamental EU treaty.

There is no time for extensive trade agreements. As Sir Ivan writes, exemplifying I think the Canada/EU agreement, it's thousands of pages long, the result of years and years of work.

I suggest you spend the hour or so it takes to read the paper !
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 11:21
  #3893 (permalink)  
 
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the deadline for seeking an extension of the end-2020 deadline is mid 2020 and Boris will not do that.
Well he's got to win the General Election first doesn't he?
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 11:32
  #3894 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gargleblaster View Post
I don't think you understand. As things look now, UK is leaving on Jan 31st, and article 50 is over.

Then, the deadline for seeking an extension of the end-2020 deadline is mid 2020 and Boris will not do that.
Article 50 is revokable up to Jan 31st. Will they actually leave on the 31st?
If BJ is in office, he most probably will hesitate before taking the plunge. Remember his WA passed in commons, and he caved at the last moment and called for an election instead. He is buying time.
If he really were to leave, he'd be busy preparing. And yet he doesn't even know about the very little his government has achieved to date.

Now if they are forced not to revoke, they'll most probably ask for an extension of the deadline, in the hope of delaying the consequences, and maybe try and make some progress in the negotiations.

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Old 29th Nov 2019, 12:24
  #3895 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
Article 50 is revokable up to Jan 31st. Will they actually leave on the 31st?
If BJ is in office, he most probably will hesitate before taking the plunge.
Personally I think if he has a majority we will leave on 31st Jan. Everyone will rejoice about how wonderful it is. And then the reality of the flimsy deal that will be on offer and the implications of it will be addressed afterwards.
i expect it probably needs voting through by a parliamentary majority (is that right anyone?). Which Boris may (likely) or may not (less likely) get.

And then of course we can see Brexit getting done and things that need unleashing being unleashed. Whatever that means.
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 12:33
  #3896 (permalink)  
 
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Polls

I don't know if it is because of the fact that I live in the SE but I am really surprised that the Liberal Democrats are not polling more highly. Almost everyone I speak to who is a traditional Conservative voter has said they will be voting LD. Now I know this is a small sample of Widger's associates but I will be very interested to see if there is indeed a swing to LD in this election that the Left and Right leaning press are choosing to ignore.
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 13:05
  #3897 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by zoigberg View Post
Personally I think if he has a majority we will leave on 31st Jan. Everyone will rejoice about how wonderful it is. And then the reality of the flimsy deal that will be on offer and the implications of it will be addressed afterwards.
Would broadly agree, except...there is no such thing as a deal on offer until you actually leave.
Then nothing will be on offer, you'll have to go negotiating (= begging) in Brussels for any little bit of deal, with the 2020 clock ticking and leavers complaining the £350 m/week have not yet arrived in their local hospital...
Even people as thick as BJ would hesitate....

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Old 29th Nov 2019, 13:20
  #3898 (permalink)  
 
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Speaking of the Lib Dems, I was surprised recently when some commentators all agreed that the more often Jo Swinson appears in the media etc, her "popularity" decreases. She can be a bit of a pain to listen to but she seems quite tolerable. Layla Moran on the other hand... "Does the volume go up to 11"? Quite aggravating when she sets off on one.
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Old 29th Nov 2019, 22:53
  #3899 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Widger View Post
I don't know if it is because of the fact that I live in the SE but I am really surprised that the Liberal Democrats are not polling more highly. Almost everyone I speak to who is a traditional Conservative voter has said they will be voting LD. Now I know this is a small sample of Widger's associates but I will be very interested to see if there is indeed a swing to LD in this election that the Left and Right leaning press are choosing to ignore.
really. I've not met one.. what bit of the SE are you in. the lab dems HQ
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Old 30th Nov 2019, 04:27
  #3900 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Widger View Post
I don't know if it is because of the fact that I live in the SE but I am really surprised that the Liberal Democrats are not polling more highly. Almost everyone I speak to who is a traditional Conservative voter has said they will be voting LD. Now I know this is a small sample of Widger's associates but I will be very interested to see if there is indeed a swing to LD in this election that the Left and Right leaning press are choosing to ignore.
Not what you hear up here in the North West, LibDims are derided, firstly because of their record when in coalition and secondly for Mad Jo's anti democratic stance on Brexit. I'm one whose hoping the pollsters have got this one right, but I do admit to being surprised they arent polling stronger. The remain millions that marched down the Mall must be voting for somebody?
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