BREXIT
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sweden
Posts: 431
Originally Posted by NutLoose
But thats the thing, it does not offer the opportunity to leave minus a deal, its leave with or remain, some will have voted to leave without and they are not giving those the chance to vote on it at the election..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 11,309
Press reports that, now the surrender bill is law, and that the government must acquiesce to any conditions imposed by the EU for an extension, the French will demand a minimum of a 2 year extension and a second referendum as their price to agree.
Any such extension offer offer must be returned to the HoC for a vote. It will be interesting, if it gets that far, so see how MPs will vote.....
Any such extension offer offer must be returned to the HoC for a vote. It will be interesting, if it gets that far, so see how MPs will vote.....
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: French Alps
Posts: 326
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
All you have to do is click search. As a point of principle I won’t do it for you.
Running back the time machine to Brexit prehistory, I finally stumbled on something :
" I voted leave because I detest multiple levels of government. Each level requires staff, buildings and associated costs. The EU parliament annual budget, just to exist, is roughly €1.5B."
[...]
" This is the root of the problem for me. If the EU had stayed as a strong trading block of wealthy nations I could see its benefit. The minute it expanded to let everyone in its decline became inevitable. "
Benefitting from the EU, then.
Europeans might smile : would the then sick man in Europe have been admitted ?
Last edited by Fly Aiprt; 10th Sep 2019 at 15:39. Reason: Typo
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: God's Country
Posts: 123
Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt
Not exactly what I would qualifiy as a "reasoned debate and grown up discussion" (30th march 2019), but some of our British future ex-partners are sooo peculiar ;-)
Running back the time machine to Brexit prehistory, I finally stumbled on something :
" I voted leave because I detest multiple levels of government. Each level requires staff, buildings and associated costs. The EU parliament annual budget, just to exist, is roughly €1.5B."
[...]
" This is the root of the problem for me. If the EU had stayed as a strong trading block of wealthy nations I could see its benefit. The minute it expanded to let everyone in its decline became inevitable. "
Benefitting from the EU, then.
Europeans might smile : would the then sick man in Europe have been admitted ?
Running back the time machine to Brexit prehistory, I finally stumbled on something :
" I voted leave because I detest multiple levels of government. Each level requires staff, buildings and associated costs. The EU parliament annual budget, just to exist, is roughly €1.5B."
[...]
" This is the root of the problem for me. If the EU had stayed as a strong trading block of wealthy nations I could see its benefit. The minute it expanded to let everyone in its decline became inevitable. "
Benefitting from the EU, then.
Europeans might smile : would the then sick man in Europe have been admitted ?
Join Date: Sep 2000
Posts: 562
Whether you are pro or anti Brexit you have to acknowledge that in a democracy the loser has to admit defeat. If this isn’t the case then we have the political system of a banana republic.
We must leave first and then campaign for re entry.
We must leave first and then campaign for re entry.
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: French Alps
Posts: 326
The Nip, this is a good question.
Of course nobody can answer, but what is sure is,
- The Brexit wil cost the EU much, not only in money, but in trade, employment, some businesses will go under.
- The cost in money will be about the same for the UK.
- The cost in trade for the UK is unknown in the absence of established trade deals, but it is expected to take time to strike hundreds of proper deals to replace those presently in place with the EU and other countries.
- To date there seems to be no doubt EU expects to survive, if only thanks to its sheer size and trade deals.
- Everybody in the EU is accepting the Brexit decision, although many consider it unwise.
Personally I have the notion that the British somehow see themselves as the mainstay of the EU whereas the situation might be more nuanced.
Let's say that this side of the Channel, it's Britain's survival that is in question ;-)
Many people are apalled at the show your politicians are displaying, and are questioning your governement's abilities to credibly deal with other countries.
The general opinion is "they said they're going, let them go and come what may".
Of course nobody can answer, but what is sure is,
- The Brexit wil cost the EU much, not only in money, but in trade, employment, some businesses will go under.
- The cost in money will be about the same for the UK.
- The cost in trade for the UK is unknown in the absence of established trade deals, but it is expected to take time to strike hundreds of proper deals to replace those presently in place with the EU and other countries.
- To date there seems to be no doubt EU expects to survive, if only thanks to its sheer size and trade deals.
- Everybody in the EU is accepting the Brexit decision, although many consider it unwise.
Personally I have the notion that the British somehow see themselves as the mainstay of the EU whereas the situation might be more nuanced.
Let's say that this side of the Channel, it's Britain's survival that is in question ;-)
Many people are apalled at the show your politicians are displaying, and are questioning your governement's abilities to credibly deal with other countries.
The general opinion is "they said they're going, let them go and come what may".
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Róisín Dubh
Posts: 1,250
Originally Posted by qwertyuiop
We must leave first and then campaign for re entry.
Leo really is playing a blinder I must say.
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: French Alps
Posts: 326
Originally Posted by gizmo71
It's one heck of a roundabout way to get the UK to adopt the Euro.
By this time, most Brexit voters will have long departed this world of euro and EU parliament^^!
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Brum
Posts: 758
Originally Posted by Krystal n chips
Awww, bless . Another lured by the eternal urban myth of a United States of Europe.
*
*
One quote in particular has been making the rounds since von der Leyen's name started floating as an option at the Council summit this week: "My aim is the United States of Europe — modelled on federal states like Switzerland, Germany or the U.S.," she told Der Spiegel in 2011. She repeated her call for a federal EU in an interview with Die Zeit in 2016, adding: "I imagine the Europe of my children or grandchildren not as a loose union of states trapped by national interests."As defense minister, she pushed for greater security cooperation in the EU, urging a "defense union" and calling for the establishment of an "army of Europeans."
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: French Alps
Posts: 326
Originally Posted by Una Due Tfc
He's the one you'll be negotiating any trade deal with as a non EU member for the next 5 years at least. Your government will need to change their tune on the backstop.
- Leave
- Get UK a government worthy of the name
- Realize what's going on once you're outside
- Manage the first emergencies : transports, food, medicines, fisheries...
- Honour your 40 odd billion committment
Not sure this will happen within the next 5 years...
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: French Alps
Posts: 326
Originally Posted by Nige321
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 11,309
Honour your 40 odd billion committment
The UK has commitments for budget items such as pensions etc, it has ongoing payments for continuing membership of certain programmes, if forced to leave these programmes some will require negotiation as to repayment of capital value etc.
There is disagreement over the total amount due, the division of capital assets and the duration, timing and extent of payments. Some suggest as low as £6-12B, others up to £39B, but these are still matters unsettled.
In such matters payments are made after agreement on the above. If the WA is. It signed, then smaller piecemeal agreements will be need to be negotiated and signed. I would imagine, in the fraught circumstances, this might take several years as they are used as bargaining chips by both sides.
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Róisín Dubh
Posts: 1,250
[/QUOTE] Some suggest as low as £6-12B, others up to £39B, but these are still matters unsettled.
[/QUOTE]I'm sure big Phil will iron this all out for you when it comes time to negotiate the trade agreement.
But I'm sure he won't try and screw you as badly as Trump.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 11,309
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...plan-0l7hn85hh
DUP anger over new Brexit deal plan
Senior Unionist politicians are to meet Boris Johnson today amid claims that the prime minister is seeking a deal with Brussels that could split Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom.
The new EU trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, said that the penny was “finally dropping” in London that the only alternative to a whole UK backstop was to come up with specific arrangements for Ulster.
But any move to place a trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom is a red line for the Democratic Unionist Party, which vetoed the proposal when it was first mooted by the European Commission in 2017.
“Mr Johnson has made a proposal in the last few days talking about an all-Ireland food zone,” Mr Hogan told The Irish Times. He is the Irish farm commissioner and a known critic of Brexit. That is certainly a clear indication of divergence between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and the EU, and the rest of the UK. This is the first time that this has been spoken about by a British prime minister where they are prepared to accept some level of divergence. If we can build on that we certainly might get closer to one another in terms of a possible outcome.”........
During talks in Brussels last week David Frost, the prime minister’s lead negotiator, discussed ways that a backstop could be “democratised” to ensure that Northern Ireland had a say in regulations that applied to it. “Any deal must involve the abolition of the anti-democratic backstop,” a British spokesman said.
The emphasis on “governance” of a backstop has reignited EU hopes that a backstop that is only specific to Northern Ireland is the government’s planned alternative. The question of an all-Ireland food standards zone is critical because farm and food products account for the bulk of cross-border trade in terms of volume. If a solution can be found it could unlock a wider deal........
DUP anger over new Brexit deal plan
Senior Unionist politicians are to meet Boris Johnson today amid claims that the prime minister is seeking a deal with Brussels that could split Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom.
The new EU trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, said that the penny was “finally dropping” in London that the only alternative to a whole UK backstop was to come up with specific arrangements for Ulster.
But any move to place a trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom is a red line for the Democratic Unionist Party, which vetoed the proposal when it was first mooted by the European Commission in 2017.
“Mr Johnson has made a proposal in the last few days talking about an all-Ireland food zone,” Mr Hogan told The Irish Times. He is the Irish farm commissioner and a known critic of Brexit. That is certainly a clear indication of divergence between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and the EU, and the rest of the UK. This is the first time that this has been spoken about by a British prime minister where they are prepared to accept some level of divergence. If we can build on that we certainly might get closer to one another in terms of a possible outcome.”........
During talks in Brussels last week David Frost, the prime minister’s lead negotiator, discussed ways that a backstop could be “democratised” to ensure that Northern Ireland had a say in regulations that applied to it. “Any deal must involve the abolition of the anti-democratic backstop,” a British spokesman said.
The emphasis on “governance” of a backstop has reignited EU hopes that a backstop that is only specific to Northern Ireland is the government’s planned alternative. The question of an all-Ireland food standards zone is critical because farm and food products account for the bulk of cross-border trade in terms of volume. If a solution can be found it could unlock a wider deal........
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 784
Originally Posted by ORAC
There is no commitment, check the WA, it is never mentioned.
The UK has commitments for budget items such as pensions etc, it has ongoing payments for continuing membership of certain programmes, if forced to leave these programmes some will require negotiation as to repayment of capital value etc.
There is disagreement over the total amount due, the division of capital assets and the duration, timing and extent of payments. Some suggest as low as £6-12B, others up to £39B, but these are still matters unsettled.
In such matters payments are made after agreement on the above. If the WA is. It signed, then smaller piecemeal agreements will be need to be negotiated and signed. I would imagine, in the fraught circumstances, this might take several years as they are used as bargaining chips by both sides.
The UK has commitments for budget items such as pensions etc, it has ongoing payments for continuing membership of certain programmes, if forced to leave these programmes some will require negotiation as to repayment of capital value etc.
There is disagreement over the total amount due, the division of capital assets and the duration, timing and extent of payments. Some suggest as low as £6-12B, others up to £39B, but these are still matters unsettled.
In such matters payments are made after agreement on the above. If the WA is. It signed, then smaller piecemeal agreements will be need to be negotiated and signed. I would imagine, in the fraught circumstances, this might take several years as they are used as bargaining chips by both sides.
https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-8039
Failure to keep the commitment will be characterised by some as a soverign default, and while the markets are mixed on whether it would be in the normal sense, these are not normal times. Whether skipping out on it's obligations has a negative effect on the UK's debt rating remains to be seem.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/op...ony-2019-06-14
JAS
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sweden
Posts: 431
Some suggest as low as £6-12B, others up to £39B, but these are still matters unsettled.
[/QUOTE]I'm sure big Phil will iron this all out for you when it comes time to negotiate the trade agreement.
But I'm sure he won't try and screw you as badly as Trump.[/QUOTE]
A lot of people assuming Trump will still be in office and therefore in a position to screw the U.K. post Brexit. He can only serve 2 terms remember...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 784
Originally Posted by ORAC
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...plan-0l7hn85hh
DUP anger over new Brexit deal plan
Senior Unionist politicians are to meet Boris Johnson today amid claims that the prime minister is seeking a deal with Brussels that could split Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom.
The new EU trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, said that the penny was “finally dropping” in London that the only alternative to a whole UK backstop was to come up with specific arrangements for Ulster.
But any move to place a trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom is a red line for the Democratic Unionist Party, which vetoed the proposal when it was first mooted by the European Commission in 2017.
“Mr Johnson has made a proposal in the last few days talking about an all-Ireland food zone,” Mr Hogan told The Irish Times. He is the Irish farm commissioner and a known critic of Brexit. That is certainly a clear indication of divergence between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and the EU, and the rest of the UK. This is the first time that this has been spoken about by a British prime minister where they are prepared to accept some level of divergence. If we can build on that we certainly might get closer to one another in terms of a possible outcome.”........
During talks in Brussels last week David Frost, the prime minister’s lead negotiator, discussed ways that a backstop could be “democratised” to ensure that Northern Ireland had a say in regulations that applied to it. “Any deal must involve the abolition of the anti-democratic backstop,” a British spokesman said.
The emphasis on “governance” of a backstop has reignited EU hopes that a backstop that is only specific to Northern Ireland is the government’s planned alternative. The question of an all-Ireland food standards zone is critical because farm and food products account for the bulk of cross-border trade in terms of volume. If a solution can be found it could unlock a wider deal........
DUP anger over new Brexit deal plan
Senior Unionist politicians are to meet Boris Johnson today amid claims that the prime minister is seeking a deal with Brussels that could split Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom.
The new EU trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, said that the penny was “finally dropping” in London that the only alternative to a whole UK backstop was to come up with specific arrangements for Ulster.
But any move to place a trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom is a red line for the Democratic Unionist Party, which vetoed the proposal when it was first mooted by the European Commission in 2017.
“Mr Johnson has made a proposal in the last few days talking about an all-Ireland food zone,” Mr Hogan told The Irish Times. He is the Irish farm commissioner and a known critic of Brexit. That is certainly a clear indication of divergence between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and the EU, and the rest of the UK. This is the first time that this has been spoken about by a British prime minister where they are prepared to accept some level of divergence. If we can build on that we certainly might get closer to one another in terms of a possible outcome.”........
During talks in Brussels last week David Frost, the prime minister’s lead negotiator, discussed ways that a backstop could be “democratised” to ensure that Northern Ireland had a say in regulations that applied to it. “Any deal must involve the abolition of the anti-democratic backstop,” a British spokesman said.
The emphasis on “governance” of a backstop has reignited EU hopes that a backstop that is only specific to Northern Ireland is the government’s planned alternative. The question of an all-Ireland food standards zone is critical because farm and food products account for the bulk of cross-border trade in terms of volume. If a solution can be found it could unlock a wider deal........
59% of Tory Members are OK with Northern Ireland being hived off in order to facilitate the rump of the UK leaving the EU.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...hows-1.3929348
JAS
