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BREXIT

Old 3rd Sep 2019, 14:23
  #1981 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ThorMos View Post
Do you know what just a two minute stop for each and every truck passing through Calais, Rotterdam, Hoek van Holland,... means regarding traffic jams?
A considerable amount:

"I have seen a study that put a notional three minute delay on every truck on either side of the English Channel, and that would create 17 kilometers (10.5 miles) of tailbacks," he said.
So a 3 minute customs inspection will create almost a 20km traffic jam.

There currently 500 non-EU trucks that arrive in the UK each daily that require a customs inspection that takes up to an hour.

The total amount of trucks that current cross the channel daily?:

Up to 10,000 trucks roll on and off ferries either side of the crossing each day. Another 6,000 trucks cross the Channel Tunnel daily, as do trains, vans and cars.
If those 16’000 trucks are subjected to delays of up to an hour each and every day, plus the roll on effect???

Brexit's other border: EU-UK trade across the Channel, in numbers

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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 14:32
  #1982 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ThorMos View Post
Du meinst, ich sollte nicht so nett zu ihm sein?
Eh eh eh^^!

Are we not citizens of the same planet, if not of the same continent ?

Let's hope it won't be apocalyptic - don't forget Murphy's law, though.
But there may be some delays and hiccups in the logistic chain.
He is a wise man who prepares for the worst...
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 14:42
  #1983 (permalink)  
 
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The pound is plummeting and volitile, but one thing that causes it to rise again is any hint of No Deal being stopped:

Breaking: GBP surges back above 1.20 as Speaker hints at opposition precedence

The market certaintly knows that a No Deal Brexit is a disaster (as does everyone except for hedge fund managers who will make bank betting on shorting the pound...)
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 14:59
  #1984 (permalink)  
 
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Thormos:
Can you tell me where i can get the necessary paperwork to ship goods to my customer in Sterling?
Sorry to ask, but how do you do that now, or do you do it another way, if you do does that have to change post Brexit into WTO trading? Your input in explaining would be gratefully appreciated.
Do you know what just a two minute stop for each and every truck passing through Calais, Rotterdam, Hoek van Holland,... means regarding traffic jams? Vice versa Dover, Hull, Harwich,...
I believe I have a pretty good idea, delays happen already and are a frequent occurrence are catered for by good logistics planning and contingency planning, like all good businesses who are more than capable of doing to mitigate delays caused by accidents, breakdowns & strikes etc, what does your business do to mitigate against those?
Are you sure that EU and UK will be working according to WTO rules?
No more than you do and how can one answer that anyway?
Will the UK be a member of WTO?
I believe they already are a full member and will have to come to an independent agreement with them after no deal exit, however I assume you don’t think they will remain so?As for your German quote, it has translated into ‘If you have no idea, just hold your mouth’ if that is roughly correct then thanks for that, though I do have an idea.

Fly Airpt: You say some credible sources have been posted above, could you please help me by directing me to them, as I cannot find any recent ones that do.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 15:11
  #1985 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
Fly Airpt: You say some credible sources have been posted above, could you please help me by directing me to them, as I cannot find any recent ones that do.
I'm afraid I can't.
So many "I believe" in your messages that no amount of research in the world, TV live reports, even being caught with no medicines could make you admit anything negative could result from the Brexit.
Only the apparition of your PM in full glory and halo, descending from heavens in His chariot of fire might have you consider any other outcome.

But I'm not trying to convince anyone, let alone a believer, just warning of the most probable outcomes, so the wisest can prepare.

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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 15:24
  #1986 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt
I'm... ...just warning of the most probable outcomes, so the wisest can prepare.
No, you are using FUD, which is 3 years and 3 months too late to make any difference.

Out. No deal looks likelier by the minute as parliament prostrates itself to the eu

Thank you for reading
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 15:38
  #1987 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
I'm afraid I can't.
So many "I believe" in your messages that no amount of research in the world, TV live reports, even being caught with no medicines could make you admit anything negative could result from the Brexit.
Only the apparition of your PM in full glory and halo, descending from heavens in His chariot of fire might have you consider any other outcome.

But I'm not trying to convince anyone, let alone a believer, just warning of the most probable outcomes, so the wisest can prepare.
'I believe' could just as easily be interpreted as 'it is my opinion', that is also what the rest of your post is, plus assumptions that I would never believe anything that is said by the remain side even if the so called obvious kicked me in the face or in your words 'Only the apparition of your PM in full glory and halo, descending from heavens in His chariot of fire might have you consider any other outcome'., however as nearly all of that has been 'opinion', or using the term I used i.e. that they believe what they are saying, I merely asked for some credible sources to prove them right and myself wrong on the subject of shortage of food and medicine supplies from the EU should the UK actually leave under WTO rules, instead I am responded to not with facts, but additional questions and facetious remarks and then I am supposed to accept and believe the remain side of the debate.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 15:38
  #1988 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
Thormos:Sorry to ask, but how do you do that now, or do you do it another way, if you do does that have to change post Brexit into WTO trading? Your input in explaining would be gratefully appreciated.
Believe it or not, you don't have to do anything. What you have to do is send a list to Saarlois (city in germany) at the end of the month or quarter listing the shipments going to other EU countries. That's it.

What do you have to do to send a shipment to a country outside of the EU?

Fill in a form (on-line these days), send it to the customs office, wait for them to answer, go to your customs office (in our case 30km round trip) and get them to sign (stamp it off). You may have to show your customs office the goods.
Now, let me ask my question again: Which form do i have to fill in on the 1. November 2019 to ship my goods to Sterling? Can you tell me?
I believe I have a pretty good idea, delays happen already and are a frequent occurrence are catered for by good logistics planning and contingency planning, like all good businesses who are more than capable of doing to mitigate delays caused by accidents, breakdowns & strikes etc, what does your business do to mitigate against those? No more than you do and how can one answer that anyway?I believe they already are a full member and will have to come to an independent agreement with them after no deal exit, however I assume you don’t think they will remain so?As for your German quote, it has translated into ‘If you have no idea, just hold your mouth’ if that is roughly correct then thanks for that, though I do have an idea.
How are we supposed to prepare ourselves if nobody can answer the simple question above? I don't think you have a 'pretty good idea' if you use soundbites like 'delays happen already', 'frequent occurence', 'good logistics planning' and so on. Sorry, the 'whaffle-factor' seems to be sky high. Ask people who do these things every day, what do they think how easy this is going to be... Ah, experts, what do they know.

Coming back to the German saying, your translation is nearly correct, the German is more offensive...
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 16:33
  #1989 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ThorMos View Post
Believe it or not, you don't have to do anything. What you have to do is send a list to Saarlois (city in germany) at the end of the month or quarter listing the shipments going to other EU countries. That's it.

What do you have to do to send a shipment to a country outside of the EU?

Fill in a form (on-line these days), send it to the customs office, wait for them to answer, go to your customs office (in our case 30km round trip) and get them to sign (stamp it off). You may have to show your customs office the goods.
Now, let me ask my question again: Which form do i have to fill in on the 1. November 2019 to ship my goods to Sterling? Can you tell me? How are we supposed to prepare ourselves if nobody can answer the simple question above? I don't think you have a 'pretty good idea' if you use soundbites like 'delays happen already', 'frequent occurence', 'good logistics planning' and so on. Sorry, the 'whaffle-factor' seems to be sky high. Ask people who do these things every day, what do they think how easy this is going to be... Ah, experts, what do they know.

Coming back to the German saying, your translation is nearly correct, the German is more offensive...
Thanks for the answer on what you do now, and what you would do with the UK under WTO rules, it is appreciated.

Are you saying that to date those 'soundbites' and 'waffle-factor' statements that logistics businesses have to deal with delays for all manner of reasons do not actually occur, so you do not have to mitigate against them as described in more of my 'sound bites', you have also made an assumption that I have never worked for a large international logistics company (which I have by the way), however, I will answer your question as honestly as I can in that I have yet to find the necessary form for you to fill in as the general guidance from the EU and UK.gov sites are still talking in generic terms as to what might be needed under WTO, or a trade deal terms, I am still looking just in case I have missed it.

This is the current UK.Gov info, which no doubt will not be much help at this moment in time:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transpor...t-for-hauliers

And thanks for letting me know your German comment was intended to be offensive.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 16:34
  #1990 (permalink)  
 
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Top ten importing countries into the UK last year:

Germany $91.57B
China $63.38B
United States $63.25B
Netherlands $55.19B
France $37.68B
Belgium $34.65B
Italy $26.55B
Norway $25.23B
Spain $21.07B
Ireland $18.78B

How did China, United States and Norway manage to import so much to the UK, if the process is so dire for countries outside the EU?
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 16:53
  #1991 (permalink)  
 
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This thread has been subject to a coup takeover by those who don't live in the UK, and didn't have a vote in the referendum.
Yet seem to have all the answers and surprisingly are on the remain side. It seems there type of posters appear for a short time, post hundreds of times then disappear.
I fully understand that everyone has an opinion, the quantity of posts seems to suggest they could be Bots!
Maybe the Soros influence is spreading!
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 17:10
  #1992 (permalink)  
 
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Actually, if these are genuine fellow Europeans, for me that is good for the debate as it gives us an idea of their views on Brexit, though what I have gathered from some posts is:

It will not affect them at all.
They will be glad when we have left.
They don't think they will be able to treat the UK as a Non-EU member for trading as they currently do with every other non-EU country.

Whether that adds to the debate is for others to determine, but it does add another dimension to the debate as we are told it either does, or it does not, affect them in different ways depending on which side of the debate they sit on.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 17:12
  #1993 (permalink)  
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Nip, I corresponded with one ',bot' in PM. No Bot I assure you.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 17:19
  #1994 (permalink)  
 
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EX-Rigger:

The German quote sort of translates to: If you haven't got a clue, keep your gob shut.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 17:22
  #1995 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Top ten importing countries into the UK last year:

Germany $91.57B
China $63.38B
United States $63.25B
Netherlands $55.19B
France $37.68B
Belgium $34.65B
Italy $26.55B
Norway $25.23B
Spain $21.07B
Ireland $18.78B

How did China, United States and Norway manage to import so much to the UK, if the process is so dire for countries outside the EU?
The countries you mentioned will either have a trade agreement with us, or a Mutual Recognition Agreement with us. If we leave the EU without no deal, then by definition we have nothing with the EU and will be treated as a bog standard third country with no agreements in place. If we leave with a deal then everything will remain in place (at the moment for two years) while a trade agreement is sorted out. Big difference in impact
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 17:59
  #1996 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post


You do realise that attempts to cross the channel illegally in either direction would continue whether we were in the EU or not?
Of course you are correct . However , my point was about " taking back control of borders " or rather the lack thereof . It takes quite a while to commission coastguard cutters and more importantly to train up the personnel who will man them . Despite all the rhetoric , I don't see any evidence that this is the case . It certainly is not going to happen before October 31st . Why has this not been government policy for years . The current force seems woefully inadequate for the task in hand , ( just like the madness of running down police numbers ).
It is only now that we are hearing promises of more money for border force etc, etc .Smacks of bolting the stable door long after the horse has gone .

Priti Patel says--" freedom of movement will end on Nov 1st " --Wrong.
Boris says --" we will send these illegal immigrants back immediately "--Wrong .

Someone needs to get their act together .
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 18:22
  #1997 (permalink)  
 
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Nice post, Exrigger,

Here is my (Bot) take :

It will not affect them at all : false.
Everybody in Europe would have preferred not having to deal (!) with Brexit. But after 3 years, we finally accept the inevitable difficult situation you created.

They will be glad when we have left : well, err...actually...yes^^!
Britain has been such a difficult, unreliable and finnicky partner, that many in Europe will feel relieved when the uncertainties you provoked are over and we finally get to dealing with the consequences.
As the saying goes "Plutôt seul que mal accompagné".

They don't think they will be able to treat the UK as a Non-EU member for trading as they currently do with every other non-EU country : true.
We expect you will be treated like a candidate Non-EU member, and so prepare for years of discussion before establishing any treaty. That's what the transition period was for, to prevent you being outside with nothing ready.
And that's why some bots here would sometimes urge you to do something before you take the plunge.


*
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 18:34
  #1998 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
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Finally the UK needs the EU and the EU needs the UK.
The question will be how to save face but practically come closer together again after BREXIT and all that drama. Maybe with an associated status something like the Swiss do?
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 18:41
  #1999 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
Nice post, Exrigger,

Here is my (Bot) take :

It will not affect them at all : false.
Everybody in Europe would have preferred not having to deal (!) with Brexit. But after 3 years, we finally accept the inevitable difficult situation you created.

They will be glad when we have left : well, err...actually...yes^^!
Britain has been such a difficult, unreliable and finnicky partner, that many in Europe will feel relieved when the uncertainties you provoked are over and we finally get to dealing with the consequences.
As the saying goes "Plutôt seul que mal accompagné".

They don't think they will be able to treat the UK as a Non-EU member for trading as they currently do with every other non-EU country : true.
We expect you will be treated like a candidate Non-EU member, and so prepare for years of discussion before establishing any treaty. That's what the transition period was for, to prevent you being outside with nothing ready.
And that's why some bots here would sometimes urge you to do something before you take the plunge.


*
Thanks for politely responding, I do hope you noted that that was my take from some posts I have read here and elsewhere, and they are not my view, without people like yourself who provide your view from the European side, how can I possibly know what you guys/gals believe, so thanks for the outlook from your perspective.*
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 18:44
  #2000 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
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Originally Posted by The Nip View Post
This thread has been subject to a coup takeover by those who don't live in the UK, and didn't have a vote in the referendum.
This is a scandal !
Only the British had a right to vote, whereas everyone in the 28 was concerned and are affected, and there should have been 200 million voters.
This is contrary to democracy and elementary esprit d'équipe.

PS: this post might include some degree of irony...

*
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