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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 16th Dec 2018, 16:59
  #1521 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
So why the need for an EU army? Unless, of course, the federalists see it as just another part of their vision of a European nation state.
As stated earlier, a major geographical and trading entity (the EU) should not be totally reliant for its protection on another and competing entity (the US) that could at any time unilaterally choose to remove that protection.
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 17:04
  #1522 (permalink)  
 
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Not a good day in Brussels either:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46585237
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 17:11
  #1523 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
We're trying that with "Bollocks to Brexit" - seems to be going down quite well so far.
I tried to post an Instagram link earlier of the turnout in Cardiff, but it wouldn't take. The picture showed eight supporters in front of the bus. I presume the other 699,992 were hiding behind it !
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 17:39
  #1524 (permalink)  
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Might we please agree then that aerolite prose is to be avoided.
Thank you.
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 19:12
  #1525 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Leaving with no deal means paying nothing but tarrifs will be imposed plus a fairly rapid movement of jobs offshore. City will be hit hard and they pay massive amounts of tax so ultimately Govt will be forced to make massive cuts everywhere. Listen to what car manufacturers have been saying for months as they can no longer compete in EU so they will move there.

1 job lost in the city of £250k (basic), will require 25 new jobs earning £25,000k to make up tax shortfall, forget about the VAT that country gains from somebody with lots of spending power as well. Jobs are going from the city as more and more move to Frankfurt, Amsterdam. Paris and Dublin.

I would translate this as :
Price of BMs, Mercs, Volvos, VW`s, Audis. Peugeots, Renaults, Seats, gonig up and us all driving around in Mahindras. No more wine lakes for us to swim in and only Oz wine to drwon our sorrows in. End to popular shopping villages, such as the one in Oxon, for the Chinese to buy their own manufactured garments VAT free.
The 250k non domicled non tax resident paradise paradise tax resident, trust me am a doctor type execs seeking asylum in Mongolia.
Tax collectors in Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris taking on the job of chasing VAT dodgers on private jets.
Our lot coming down to earth and recognising value of things that matter rather than the price of frivolity.
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 19:18
  #1526 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chronus View Post
frivolity.
Is what that is. Must be great being retired & not having to take this seriously. Until you need a Doctor of course. Then it won't be such a laugh.
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 19:30
  #1527 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Chronus View Post
I would translate this as :
Price of BMs, Mercs, Volvos, VW`s, Audis. Peugeots, Renaults, Seats, gonig up and us all driving around in Mahindras. No more wine lakes for us to swim in and only Oz wine to drwon our sorrows in. End to
The only reason IMPORTS would become more expensive is if we imposed punitive tariffs.

popular shopping villages, such as the one in Oxon, for the Chinese to buy their own manufactured garments VAT free.
Can still exist as we can refund. VAT as we do at the moment.

We will also be able to buy continental goods free of duty too up to cash limits imposed by OUR Chancellor.

Fake news or a misunderstanding on how tariffs are applied?
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 20:42
  #1528 (permalink)  
 
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Key point on no deal & I can't emphasise this enough. If we crash out with no deal, then we default to WTO rules. These are hugely restrictive. For example, they set tariffs on exports Of cars AT 10%. Clothing at 12% and some meat products at 90, yes, 90%.

Since we've left the EU, we can no longer control, influence or vote on their trade policies. If we seek to export beef to Europe at 90% tariff, the EU will respond in kind.Therefore, the natural reaction is to discount those tariffs to save British beef farmers & consumers. However, we cannot do that singularly, we have to apply that tariff discount to any nation we subsequently trade with & if for instance, we opt for zero import tariffs on beef from Europe, then we have nothing with which to negotiate with Argentina or Australia or the USA or anywhere. Brexiteers who blithely bang on about 'managed no deal' which is meaningless sloganeering, the kind they excel at, are not telling you any of this detail.

If you have any critical reasoning and/or stake in this country's future, don't fall for the cheap rhetoric.

WTO sucks & it will screw the economy.
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 22:05
  #1529 (permalink)  
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A report from the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board.

Wednesday, February 14th, 2018

Exports of red meat products from the UK surpassed the £1.2 billion mark in 2017, according to the latest figures from HMRC.
The data shows shipments of beef, lamb and pork topped £1bn from January to December last year. And a 2 per cent rise in red meat offal exports pushed the total for all three sectors well above £1.2 billion in value.
Figures show that exports to non-EU countries have remained strong, with beef exports to third countries increasing by almost a fifth to just over 14,300 tonnes. This has resulted in an 11 per cent rise in the total value for UK beef exports, to £409 million.
The Asian market continues to be a key focus for meat exports with a 230 per cent increase in the volume of high-value, chilled beef exported to Hong Kong in the last year, more than triple the value of the market just two years ago.
Total pork exports have remained strong in 2017 – up 4.8 per cent on the previous year to 216,000 tonnes with a value of £293 million. Both EU and non-EU shipments increased last year – building on a record-breaking year for pork exports in 2016.
AHDB’s Senior Export Manager for Livestock Jonathan Eckley said: “This latest data shows that the UK meat export industry is in a strong position globally and able to build on the incredible figures we reported in 2016.
“AHDB is continuously working to ensure UK farmers and processors are fit for the future as we look to leave the EU. While Europe is still a vital market for our exports, it is important that we look at opportunities and gaining access to an increasing number of new markets further afield.”
Last year was more of a challenging year for Chinese pork imports due to increased production both in China and the rest of the world. However, the UK has continued to hold levels with pork volumes sitting just above 40,000 tonnes.
Pork to the United States has increased in value, rising 2.7 per cent to more than £23 million, with the UK’s reputation for producing high-welfare pork providing a gateway into the high-value food service sector.
Lamb exports to both European and non-EU countries performed well in 2017, with total volumes up 14 per cent and valued at more than £384 million. Non-EU volumes have grown to 5,400 tonnes – up two thirds on the previous year.
The AHDB export team is looking to build on 2017’s figures by attending events and trade shows throughout 2018 to showcase high-quality beef, lamb and pork to global importers in existing and new markets.
In April, the team will be showcasing UK beef, lamb and dairy products at the Food Hotel Asia event in Singapore, followed by the National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago in May where high-welfare pork will be promoted to the high-value food service sector.
In May, AHDB will also attend SIAL in Shanghai – China’s most important meat show. This show is related to SIAL Paris, where beef, lamb, pork and dairy products from the UK will take centre stage in October, at what is the largest food show in the world this year.
Mr Eckley added: “These trade shows play an important role in boosting exports of red meat and dairy to new and existing markets by ensuring that quality products from the UK are top of mind for buyers around the world.”


So there really is trade life outside of the European hegemony. I do believe I heard somewhere that the EU trades through WTO rules too although I could no more claim to be an expert in this field of trade than in anything else. Suffice to say that positive trade reports such as this fill one with sanguinity whenever the ghastly prospect of a brexit is raised as being some demon of the demented departure fiends.
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 22:13
  #1530 (permalink)  
 
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We haven't left yet on any terms, let alone no terms, Are you keeping up in any way at all with even the calender, if not the news?
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 22:32
  #1531 (permalink)  
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The calendar, the calendar, why the only important piece of news for these pages, appropriately enough, is here:

Orville and Wilbur Wright made the first successful man-powered airplane flight near on December 17th at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. The plane weighed 750 pounds and was powered by a 12 horsepower gasoline engine. The craft is referred to as an airship and Orville and Wright were looking for buyers for their machine which was capable of speeds up to 10 mph.
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Old 16th Dec 2018, 22:35
  #1532 (permalink)  
 
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I remember my first drink fondly too.
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Old 17th Dec 2018, 03:27
  #1533 (permalink)  
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Key point on no deal & I can't emphasise this enough. If we crash out with no deal, then we default to WTO rules. These are hugely restrictive. For example, they set tariffs on exports Of cars AT 10%. Clothing at 12% and some meat products at 90, yes, 90%.


Under WTO rules countries set import tariffs and quotas. Under “most favoured nation” rules the same tariffs generall have to be applied to the imports of all nations. If the UK wished, outside the EU, to set tariffs on any particular item or items it could do so. Import tariffs are paid by the importer, and eventually the customer, to the government - they are a tax. Such taxes are usually used to shield protected industries from world prices and, commonly, are also used to support such industries with grants. In most cases this means the poor, the tax paying customers, end up subsidising the rich, the producers.

Looking at the EU the mot blatant example of this is in agricultural products as a result of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The average EU import tariff is very low, about 2.6%, and far cars about 10%, and would not present much of a barrier to UK trade, currency fluctuations between sterling and the EU already compensating. In agricultural products it is much higher at around 35%, which is the rate the UK must currently charge for products imported from elsewhere in the world - and the consumer must pay.

There are other non-tariff barriers such as product standards, but in the vast majority of cases these are also increasingly agreed and set internationally. In most cases where the EU does set a standard it is in fact a flow-through where they agreed and signed up to an international standard.

There are other methods to subsidise industries which are at present blocked by EU single market regulations. For example it has been recommended that the UK would be better to pay subsidies to land owners for environmental land management in such things as protecting wildlife, hedgerows and flood plains rather than industrial production.

The momey net to pay such subsidies would still have to be raised - but perhaps not in such a regressive manner. Nor does it mean the current tight agricultural relationship between the UK and Eire would be adversely affected. As I have posted previously, even the WTO rules permit exceptions.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/t...land-1.3711188
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Old 17th Dec 2018, 08:19
  #1534 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks for the explainer, most illuminating. I may have had you scanning forensically for a roll eyes with import/export but the fact remains mfn means setting tariffs for one is setting them for all in all but very limited circumstances, the implications are massive for all future trade negotiations & the principle reason not one nation on earth trades wholly under WTO. They all use side deals as a bare minimum & in nearly all cases, FTA's which according to you lot, can be done in an afternoon over a cup of tea Meanwhile, in the real world, I see no Brexiteer making a believable stab at why WTO is a good thing, but you're welcome to try - I could do with a laugh.

Telling that your instant spasm should be...Looking at the EU...Who cares? This is a point about WTO not CAP. I'm so bored of Brexiteers endlessly banging on about orange farmers in Seville when what they really want is for us to look anywhere but at the unbelievably damaging WTO scenario their recklessness has put us in danger of tumbling into.

NTB's by the way, are irrelevant for the purposes of this conversation, I can only speculate on why you brought them into it.
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Old 17th Dec 2018, 08:47
  #1535 (permalink)  
 
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Sunday Times speculating that the govt may recompense tour operators for loss of business. It's the timing of Brexit that poses the problem. The holiday booking season starts now ish and it is clear that those thinking of holidays are going to reconsider in large numbers, especially the Easter break.

Now I think that this is outrageous. Where does it stop? Should we compensate everyone involved in exporting to the EU who stands to lose profits? My own view is that to a greater or lesser extent we all are going to lose from this and to compensate one particular group is just plain wrong. Perhaps they will compensate me, I go to France about six times a year so maybe the 30% I am losing on the exchange rate will be claim able.
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Old 17th Dec 2018, 08:57
  #1536 (permalink)  
 
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I don't know if the following has been referenced in this discussion already. It seems to me a very level-headed discussion of the WTO option. Brilliant graphics help to make an arcane subject very understandable:
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Old 17th Dec 2018, 09:05
  #1537 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Sunday Times speculating that the govt may recompense tour operators for loss of business. It's the timing of Brexit that poses the problem. The holiday booking season starts now ish and it is clear that those thinking of holidays are going to reconsider in large numbers, especially the Easter break.

Now I think that this is outrageous. Where does it stop? Should we compensate everyone involved in exporting to the EU who stands to lose profits? My own view is that to a greater or lesser extent we all are going to lose from this and to compensate one particular group is just plain wrong. Perhaps they will compensate me, I go to France about six times a year so maybe the 30% I am losing on the exchange rate will be claim able.
I'm sure that a certain large German owned travel company will be very happy to receive compensation for the UK leaving the EU.
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Old 17th Dec 2018, 09:06
  #1538 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Sunday Times speculating that the govt may recompense tour operators for loss of business. It's the timing of Brexit that poses the problem. The holiday booking season starts now ish and it is clear that those thinking of holidays are going to reconsider in large numbers, especially the Easter break.

Now I think that this is outrageous. Where does it stop? Should we compensate everyone involved in exporting to the EU who stands to lose profits? My own view is that to a greater or lesser extent we all are going to lose from this and to compensate one particular group is just plain wrong. Perhaps they will compensate me, I go to France about six times a year so maybe the 30% I am losing on the exchange rate will be claim able.
Looking at compensation for short term variations in exchange rate (which is, in essence, what this is) is bonkers. The pound has varied in value against the Euro massively ever since the Euro was first introduced - by around 70%, and yet we've still all managed to survive, have holidays, etc. A look at the history of the value of the pound against the Euro shows how much variation there has been over the past ~20 years: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ba...-to-EUR#charts

Despite all the hype it's not dropped as low as it did in 2009 yet, and seems to have been fairly stable over the past year, in relative terms.
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Old 17th Dec 2018, 09:44
  #1539 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Looking at compensation for short term variations in exchange rate (which is, in essence, what this is) is bonkers. The pound has varied in value against the Euro massively ever since the Euro was first introduced - by around 70%, and yet we've still all managed to survive, have holidays, etc. A look at the history of the value of the pound against the Euro shows how much variation there has been over the past ~20 years: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ba...-to-EUR#charts

Despite all the hype it's not dropped as low as it did in 2009 yet, and seems to have been fairly stable over the past year, in relative terms.
The introduction of this charge has sod all to do with exchange rates, but a lot more to do with security.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46564884

The time to get really concerned however, is when the EU start requiring visas for UK citizens should matters deteriorate to this extent.

There again, no doubt there will be plenty of willing applicants to get this entry requirement stamped in their shiny new blue passport.....status symbols coming in many forms as we know.
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Old 17th Dec 2018, 10:00
  #1540 (permalink)  
 
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VP, that bit about me being compensated was tongue in cheek.
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