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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 16th Oct 2019, 17:23
  #11001 (permalink)  
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https://order-order.com/2019/10/16/t...g-ahead-polls/

Tories Storming Ahead in Polls

New YouGov polling for The Times has shown Boris’s Tories soar higher to a 15 point lead, making up more than the Labour and Brexit Party vote shares combined......

Interestingly, the pollfound that since July, the Brexit Party vote has fallen by almost two thirds among 2017 Tories, yet only by just 1% among 2017 Labour voters. Now the Brexit Party vote is almost evenly made up of voters who in 2017 went for the Tory (13%) and Labour (8%) parties, meaning it could be an electoral boost to the Tories in the next election, eating away at Labour voters who would never vote Tory.....

Boris’s personal ratings have climbed higher too, being twice as popular as Corbyn in the Best Prime Minister question, with 43% to Corbyn’s 21%. And for the first time ever, Boris has overtaken Corbyn in all age brackets. Among those aged 18-24, Boris leads by 32 to 29.......

Con 37%, Lab 22%, LD 18%, BXP 11%, Grn 5%.

Plugging into Electoral Calculator gives a Con majority of 176 seats.
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Old 16th Oct 2019, 17:57
  #11002 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://order-order.com/2019/10/16/t...g-ahead-polls/

Tories Storming Ahead in Polls

New YouGov polling for The Times has shown Borisís Tories soar higher to a 15 point lead, making up more than the Labour and Brexit Party vote shares combined......

Interestingly, the pollfound that since July, the Brexit Party vote has fallen by almost two thirds among 2017 Tories, yet only by just 1% among 2017 Labour voters. Now the Brexit Party vote is almost evenly made up of voters who in 2017 went for the Tory (13%) and Labour (8%) parties, meaning it could be an electoral boost to the Tories in the next election, eating away at Labour voters who would never vote Tory.....

Borisís personal ratings have climbed higher too, being twice as popular as Corbyn in the Best Prime Minister question, with 43% to Corbynís 21%. And for the first time ever, Boris has overtaken Corbyn in all age brackets. Among those aged 18-24, Boris leads by 32 to 29.......

Con 37%, Lab 22%, LD 18%, BXP 11%, Grn 5%.

Plugging into Electoral Calculator gives a Con majority of 176 seats.

To add,
Who'd make best Prime Minister?

Johnson 43% (+2)
Corbyn 21% (-)
Not sure 32% (-2)

Leavers 73-6 for Johnson
Women 38-20 Johnson
18-24 yr olds 32-29 Johnson
Working class 44-17 Johnson
Middle class 42-23 Johnson
London 32-29 Johnson

Figures extracted by M J Goodwin for Twitter

The reason Lab, Lib Dems etc do not want a GE.



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Old 16th Oct 2019, 18:25
  #11003 (permalink)  
 
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A poll on Finchley and Golders Green puts the LD candidate, Labour deserter Luciana Berger on 41%, 12% ahead of sitting MP Mike Freer. In 2017 the LD's polled 6%!
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Old 16th Oct 2019, 22:01
  #11004 (permalink)  
 
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Ö... for very local reasons, she's from the area, is jewish, and a lot of jewish labour supporters cannot bring themselves to vote for Corbyn. Those numbers won't be recreated nationally.
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Old 16th Oct 2019, 22:24
  #11005 (permalink)  
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Another damning indictment of Jeremy Corbyn and the present direction of the Labour Party....

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Old 17th Oct 2019, 08:25
  #11006 (permalink)  
 
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Corbyn is the best thing to happen to Labour from the Tories point of view. The way he has destroyed the party and alienated lifelong voters is quite extraordinary. I have friends who I never thought would ever vote for anyone other than Labour who have moved to the Brexit party and now leaning towards Boris.

I hear rumours he is on his way out and if a GE is the disaster for them may are predicting I cannot see how he can stay. I have quite enjoyed watching Labour destroy itself and would say that Corbyn going is a bad thing from a non-labour point of view as there is still more damage he could do but then when you see the list of people that could replace him such as Long Bailey, McDonnell, Phillips etc. then you realise 'things can get only get better'.

Starmer is the only one that could turn things around for them but with the trots now being in place at HQ they wouldn't have him.

Also, with Bercow going and the continued slide of Labour will we continue to see a Labour leader as leader of the opposition?

Last edited by felixflyer; 17th Oct 2019 at 08:37.
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 09:46
  #11007 (permalink)  
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For those whose euphoria concerning the current Labour leader is unrelenting as to his position being beneficial to the Tory party, true, in part, I would point out that, in contrast to the fragmented Tory party, Labour does have alternative leaders available......

If you are planning a GE, whilst keeping up the pretence of not doing so, apart from trilling forth about the largesse of spending for the publics adoration of Tory altruism that is, it's probably wise not to mention such inconvenient details such as these figures.......and the " North / South Divide " in this respect.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-says-research
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 10:34
  #11008 (permalink)  
 
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That Guardian article is all very well but what are all these undiscovered unemployed people living on?

Are they in fact the 'non employed'. People like me me, without an income of their own, not looking for work and not entitled to any form of social services? Housewives mostly and men like me, Household Chief Executive Officer, as I like to style myself. No pay, 24/7 on duty and no leave. Best job I ever had. The kid who wanted to be a fighter pilot would be surprised where he ended up.

There's a lot of us around apparently. But we're not unemployed officially.
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 12:47
  #11009 (permalink)  
 
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And meantime there is rumbling in 't Norf

We will vote to leave........ But if we later decide we do not like it..... We will vote to rejoin.... You couldn't make it up!

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...ence-reversed/
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 14:02
  #11010 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
And meantime there is rumbling in 't Norf

We will vote to leave........ But if we later decide we do not like it..... We will vote to rejoin.... You couldn't make it up!

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...ence-reversed/
I suppose the obvious question, what might happen if the rest of the UK declines to take Scotland back? Or does an additional referendum have to take place during the 18month negotiating period?
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 16:16
  #11011 (permalink)  
 
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The SNP announcement about winning the economic argument defies every piece of financial evidence. Scotlandís deficit is nearly seven times that of the UK as a whole! They would not even qualify join the EU unless it completely ignores its own fiscal rules (which admittedly it may do)
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 18:27
  #11012 (permalink)  
 
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An independent Scotland would not be paying towards Trident and HS2.or paying interest on UK Government borrowings which do not benefit Scotland.
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 18:38
  #11013 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by renfrew View Post
An independent Scotland would not be paying towards Trident and HS2.or paying interest on UK Government borrowings which do not benefit Scotland.
Would they not have to pay back the government borrowing then, or would it get written off so that they had no balance to pay interest on in the first place?
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 21:45
  #11014 (permalink)  
 
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With dwindling oil reserves and the huge costs of decommissioning would they not get lumbered with those as an independent nation. Wasn't there also problems with Shetland whose waters the oil is in wanting to remain parts of the U.K.?
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 22:01
  #11015 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
With dwindling oil reserves and the huge costs of decommissioning would they not get lumbered with those as an independent nation. Wasn't there also problems with Shetland whose waters the oil is in wanting to remain parts of the U.K.?
These points were all discussed /argued at great length on here at the time of the first Scottish referendum.

I expect there will be an Indyref2 Hamsterwheel next year.
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 22:27
  #11016 (permalink)  
 
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Er, yes they were discussed. Are you suggesting thereís nothing more to say on the issue?
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Old 17th Oct 2019, 23:20
  #11017 (permalink)  
 
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I lost any respect for the Scots when they voted to remain under the control of the English. Let's be clear I absolutely respect the English. England is a great country but being Irish I don't want them to be my master. You may have noticed this given our joint history.

The Scots were given a chance to be free and they rejected it.

Think about it. As an Englishman if you are English. Would you want to be ruled by a foreigner? I think recent events prove otherwise.

It seems the Scots have no such patriotism.

Just saying.


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Old 17th Oct 2019, 23:28
  #11018 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
These points were all discussed /argued at great length on here at the time of the first Scottish referendum.

I expect there will be an Indyref2 Hamsterwheel next year.

Really, so explain this

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...eu-referendum/
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 03:26
  #11019 (permalink)  
 
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Frankly, indyref for the SNP is a bit like the Falklands to the Argentinian government; a welcome distraction from their own shambolic mismanagement
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Old 18th Oct 2019, 09:39
  #11020 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Thanks for that. Yes, the Shetlands issue was discussed before and will doubtless be discussed again next time.
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