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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 3rd Sep 2019, 23:03
  #9861 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Originally Posted by Steepclimb View Post
Not necessarily. This is what BJ and Cummins planned. But it's so clearly a 'stroke' that it won't inevitably fly. Parliament is not stupid after all.

Without an election Johnson will have to conjure up his imaginery deal. The one the EU keeps pointing out that he hasn't offered to them. Nothing, nada, nil.

He keeps referencing it but so far the poor EU has heard nothing.

A cynic might perhaps point out that it doesn't exist.
The sad fact is that election or not, delay or not, negotiation or not, there is no 'exit deal' that can satisfy both the UK and the EU.

This was clear enough three years ago and subsequent events have only confirmed it.

We jumped off that cliff (or perhaps were we pushed) and there is no way back to the top.

So we must just as well get on with it and suffer the consequences.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 23:10
  #9862 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blossy View Post
Beats working I suppose.
Yes, well, there's a story there, but I'm not allowed to talk about it.

How many on Jet Blast work anyway? - one sort of gathers that a fair few here are retired.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 00:15
  #9863 (permalink)  
 
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Well tonight’s events prove one thing, BoJo is certainly much more of a “doer” than Theresa May. It took her months to slash her Parliamentary majority, Boris managed it in just weeks.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 08:16
  #9864 (permalink)  
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Robert Peston sees it as BJ/Cummings plan all along - Labour are now totally fixed in the Remain camp for the election, leaving the Conservatives to concentrate on the Leave vote and squashing the BXP whilst the remain vote splits 5 ways.......

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...-delay-brexit/

“I have belatedly worked out that Boris Johnson can and probably will accept the legislation delaying Brexit as the price of going to the country in a general election – because he would campaign on a manifesto of leaving the EU on 31 October. So if he wins the clear Commons majority he seeks, he could repeal that legislation in a single day before 31 October and could insist that the Lords do not block repeal (because repeal would have been in the Tory manifesto).

So we are heading for a general election as a proxy for a referendum, with Tories campaigning to Brexit, deal or no deal, on 31 October.

I really can’t see how Labour could refuse to sanction and fight an election on those terms.

Robert Peston is ITV’s Political Editor.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 08:27
  #9865 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Rory Stewart gone.
The question is, gone for how long, and where.

Leaving aside those "rebels" who have already declared their intention not to stand at the next general election, are they so aggrieved by the action that Cummings has taken (i feel sure the expulsions are driven by him, with passive support from Johnson) that they will band together as "European Conservatives" of stand as independents in their constituencies? Hammond reckons he's been selected by his association and will fight tooth and nail to keep that nomination, there may be others in a similar position.

If they did stand then they would effectively open the door to LibDems to take their seats. The period between now and the general election will surely be very interesting, and given the FPTP electoral system, and fragmentation of parties on both sides of the Brexit divide it is very difficult to call who will win the largest number of seats, and beyond that, how any coalition would stack up. I know what the polls say, but apart from for the flawed way in which polls are conducted today, a four or five party / grouping split will make forecasting the outcome very tricky.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 08:34
  #9866 (permalink)  
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POLITICO - backing up Peston’s argument......

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...a-pro-part-ii/

Rebel Watch: Soames himself told BBC Newsnight it was “a great pity” to have lost the whip after 37 years in the Tory party, and announced he will not be standing again in the coming election. He reckons Johnson and Cummings always intended to force this confrontation and then go to the country for a mandate. “I think they planned, personally, all along to have an early general election and to get this out of the way and get a new parliament,” he said. “This is exactly what they wanted, they’ve got it, and they’re going to announce tomorrow that they’re going to organize a general election.”

Sounds about right: One bullish government source tells my colleague Charlie Cooper that Soames is more or less on the money. “Election … Get Corbyn out of the way … Leave,” the senior official shrugged. And for all the headlines this morning, it’s a strategy that might very well just work.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 09:15
  #9867 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Rory Stewart gone.
All the way to the BBC and Sky News putting his point again, very calmly again. They are all outside the tent for now. Was that a good move?

​​​​​
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 09:25
  #9868 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
How many on Jet Blast work anyway? - one sort of gathers that a fair few here are retired.
I might have a job next month 😁
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 09:39
  #9869 (permalink)  
 
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How many on Jet Blast work anyway? - one sort of gathers that a fair few here are retired.[/QUOTE]

And that pretty much sums up Brexiteers. Because they are comfortably set up with pensions and mortgages paid off they just don't care if it turns out badly. It's like betting ten grand on a horse when you are a millionaire. People with ten grand view it differently.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 09:47
  #9870 (permalink)  
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More from the Politico notebook above:

Pushback: One senior government minister tells Annabelle the deselections were absolutely the right thing to do, however. “The bottom line is if you vote to take authority away from a Conservative government and hand it to a party led by someone who has flirted with terrorists, facilitated anti-Semitism, you have the whip removed,” they said. “What we have been doing is the normal stuff — what the people trying to stop Brexit are doing is the weird constitutional vandalism stuff.”

The minister also predicted the opposition parties are playing straight into Cummings’ hands — and that the Tories are now on course to win a snap election. “I’ve seen the numbers from CCHQ, it really is black and white,” they said. “People want it done. They love it when we talk about schools, hospitals and police; they love it when we talk about broadband; they hate it when we talk about Brexit — and these people have just voted to talk more about Brexit. Nobody wants to spend three, six months rowing about Brexit.” To repeat, this may well prove to be the case.”.........

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Old 4th Sep 2019, 09:58
  #9871 (permalink)  
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Torygraph:

The Conservatives are set to break with convention and stand against John Bercow in the next general election, the Telegraph understands.

In what would be a dramatic move, the Tories are lining up a Brexiteer to take on the Commons Speaker in the constituency of Buckingham, in Buckinghamshire.........

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Old 4th Sep 2019, 10:07
  #9872 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
w many on Jet Blast work anyway? - one sort of gathers that a fair few here are retired.


And that pretty much sums up Brexiteers. Because they are comfortably set up with pensions and mortgages paid off they just don't care if it turns out badly. It's like betting ten grand on a horse when you are a millionaire. People with ten grand view it differently.
Another sweeping generalisation. How can you attribute Brexiteers as well off when many Labour strongholds with less comfortably set up voters voted leave?

There were about 34 million voters that expressed an opinion and undoubtedly millions of different reasons by people from different racial backgrounds, religious convictions and none, wealthy and impoverished, thinkers and unthinking. Some held very strong views on the EU and are believed to have done it simply to give David Cameron a kicking.

We cannot be neatly pigeon holed and that will make any traditional election forecast most difficult.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 10:10
  #9873 (permalink)  
 
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Frankly, it's about time that Bercow was booted out, IMHO. He's been the most biased Speaker that I can recall, and has failed to meet one of the primary requirements of his position, that he remain politically neutral,as the "umpire" of the House.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 10:23
  #9874 (permalink)  
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Scottish High Court have it is not in the remit for the courts to rule on prorogation of Parliament, which is a political and constitutional matter, and dismissed the case.

Claimants to appeal. Which means, inevitably and as forecast, it will end up being combined with the Gina Miller case and end up in the Supreme Court.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 13:28
  #9875 (permalink)  
 
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VP959: I have to disagree, vigorously, with you. I watch a fair bit of Parliament on the BBC channel and I find him to be very fair. A good example came in the last hour. Sajid Javid started off his Spending Review speech with an unrelated attack on Labour a more than a few words promoting Johnson and his policy. Bercow allowed him to continue, in the interests of allowing continuity but was obliged to intervene when a point of order was raised by Ken Clarke. He equally castigates members from both sides of the House when they go into childish, disruptive mode. He insists on idiots, such as Boris Johnson, observing rules and conventions as he had to today, reminding Johnson that naming another member in the chamber is not allowed (Johnson, during a rant, referred to Jeremy Corbyn). Finally, Bercow is a Conservative, placed in the Speaker's chair by Conservatives so I would suggest his rattling of Conservatives is a good indication that he is probably doing his job fairly and properly.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 14:08
  #9876 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
VP959: I have to disagree, vigorously, with you. I watch a fair bit of Parliament on the BBC channel and I find him to be very fair. A good example came in the last hour. Sajid Javid started off his Spending Review speech with an unrelated attack on Labour a more than a few words promoting Johnson and his policy. Bercow allowed him to continue, in the interests of allowing continuity but was obliged to intervene when a point of order was raised by Ken Clarke. He equally castigates members from both sides of the House when they go into childish, disruptive mode. He insists on idiots, such as Boris Johnson, observing rules and conventions as he had to today, reminding Johnson that naming another member in the chamber is not allowed (Johnson, during a rant, referred to Jeremy Corbyn). Finally, Bercow is a Conservative, placed in the Speaker's chair by Conservatives so I would suggest his rattling of Conservatives is a good indication that he is probably doing his job fairly and properly.
That ignores the fact that, as a remain supporter, he has continued to ignore the democratic will of the people and has aided and abetted the remainers within the house at almost any and every opportunity (with only one minor exception that I can recall).
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 14:12
  #9877 (permalink)  
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I side with Kevin. Much of what we 'learn' is from media broadcast rather than observation.

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Old 4th Sep 2019, 14:45
  #9878 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
That ignores the fact that, as a remain supporter, he has continued to ignore the democratic will of the people and has aided and abetted the remainers within the house at almost any and every opportunity (with only one minor exception that I can recall).
A clearer example of confirmation bias one will not see.

As for the democratic will of the people?
The 2016 referendum, despite the narrowness of the result, is continuously held up as the most clear cut, definitive example of democracy ever.
However any attempt to repeat it, three years down the line, and with much more information on the table, is apparently the most anti-democratic idea ever.

It seems a rather flimsy "will of the people" to be so afraid of the question "Are you sure?"
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 14:50
  #9879 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dont Hang Up View Post
A clearer example of confirmation bias one will not see.

As for the democratic will of the people?
The 2016 referendum, despite the narrowness of the result, is continuously held up as the most clear cut, definitive example of democracy ever.
However any attempt to repeat it, three years down the line, and with much more information on the table, is apparently the most anti-democratic idea ever.

It seems a rather flimsy "will of the people" to be so afraid of the question "Are you sure?"
I wouldn't worry too much looks like we're all set for another GE in about 6 weeks time, which will effectively be a proxy for EUREF #2 !!
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 15:25
  #9880 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dont Hang Up View Post
A clearer example of confirmation bias one will not see.

As for the democratic will of the people?
The 2016 referendum, despite the narrowness of the result, is continuously held up as the most clear cut, definitive example of democracy ever.
However any attempt to repeat it, three years down the line, and with much more information on the table, is apparently the most anti-democratic idea ever.

It seems a rather flimsy "will of the people" to be so afraid of the question "Are you sure?"

So is a decision only democratic if it is asked several times before accepting the answer, then?

We only get one chance to vote at a general election, so why should we get two, or more, chances to vote in a referendum?

Should we have held another general election after the last one, on the basis that the Conservative party only won by a narrow margin, so the electorate deserved another try, in the hope that there might be a "better" answer?

It seems to me that it's only only the side who "lost" who are arguing for another bite of the cherry, which in itself is telling, as it indicates that they are people who don't really support democracy at all, or perhaps they only support democracy if their own view prevails.
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