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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 1st Sep 2019, 12:51
  #9761 (permalink)  
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Old 1st Sep 2019, 18:53
  #9762 (permalink)  
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https://www.conservativehome.com/the...ctober-31.html

Our survey. Nearly eight out of ten Party members believe that Johnson will deliver Brexit by October 31.



It would be an understatement to claim that this finding shows confidence in both Boris Johnsonís intentions and his capabilities.

For 78 per cent of our Conservative Party membersí panel evidently believe not only that the Prime Minister intends to take Britain out of the EU by the due date, but that those who seek to stop him doing so will fail. Elsewhere, 86 per cent support the Governmentís decision to seek prorogation, with only 13 per cent opposed. Party activists emphatically support their new leader. There is no other way of reading these findings.






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Old 1st Sep 2019, 18:58
  #9763 (permalink)  
 
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The question I had absolutely no clue about was the first one
Sadly, I actually knew this one, yet got it wrong! It was read out by a contributor to Clive Anderson's radio programme 'Unreliable Evidence ' about 4 weeks ago. From memory of that, I knew it was to do with curry but the Coffee House reference threw me.
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Old 1st Sep 2019, 19:00
  #9764 (permalink)  
 
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Party activists emphatically support their new leader
Of course they do. They put him there!
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Old 1st Sep 2019, 21:25
  #9765 (permalink)  
 
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and they will boot out those who rock the boat.
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Old 1st Sep 2019, 22:35
  #9766 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
and they will boot out those who rock the boat.
Remember the faux outrage on these shores when momentum threatened the same
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 00:08
  #9767 (permalink)  
 
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Not heard of Deltapoll so I would be interested to know what their methodology is. Two polls from YouGov and Survation who do the job properly with relevant weighting are as follows Tory 32 Labour 23 LD21 Brexit 13 Green 6. If you assume that most of the remaining balance to make 100% are SNP then the balance of Brexit to Non Brexit parties is 45/55.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 08:09
  #9768 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Not heard of Deltapoll so I would be interested to know what their methodology is. Two polls from YouGov and Survation who do the job properly with relevant weighting are as follows Tory 32 Labour 23 LD21 Brexit 13 Green 6. If you assume that most of the remaining balance to make 100% are SNP then the balance of Brexit to Non Brexit parties is 45/55.
Nice try EM, but I'd imagine the average Labour voter still has no clue what their leaders position is on Brexit, and probably doesnt care in many cases. Those 23% are your hardcore Lab voters, and will be a mix of Leave and Remain
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 08:25
  #9769 (permalink)  
 
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That's a specious argument that assumes that while Labour's 23% is split the Tory 32% is not. That makes no sense at all because both parties presumably have loyalists who despite this take divergent views on Brexit, especially a NoDeal.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 08:25
  #9770 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Nice try EM, but I'd imagine the average Labour voter still has no clue what their leaders position is on Brexit, and probably doesnt care in many cases. Those 23% are your hardcore Lab voters, and will be a mix of Leave and Remain
That, in a nutshell, is the problem with Labour. Keir Starmer's interview yesterday contrasted in emphasis with Rebecca Long-Bailey on BBC Breakfast this morning, and gawd knows if either of these two figures are representative of the views / policy of Jeremy Corbyn. However, the vast majority of Labour don't want a no deal Brexit and are doing their darnedest to stop it, in cahoots with the other (more united) opposition parties, and a growing chunk of Tory MPs who appear to have been emboldened by Cummings / Johnson's threat to kick them out of the Tory party, and get them off the ballot for the next general election (something I thought was the remit of local parties, not the executive). The Conservative party is becoming more a mirror image of Labour and Momentum every day.

What will be interesting to see is how many Labour MPs don't support the rebel legislation. John Mann I think is a prime candidate to rebel against the rebels, another may be Gloria Pierro. There may be others.

Of course nobody has yet confirmed that there will be any parliamentary time allocated for the rebels to take control of the order paper. There is an assumption that there will, but Bercow has said nothing.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 09:33
  #9771 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
(something I thought was the remit of local parties, not the executive)
People seemed clear (in another place in another discussion a week or three back) that the Tories in the centre can impose a candidate on a local party, which must therefore involve the "deselection" of whoever the local party had already appointed as PPC.

But with the Tories now apparently going hell-for-leather for full-on Momentum-style central dictatorship they will, no doubt, if they feel the need, just change the rules from day to day, like Momentum change Labour's rules from day to day.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 10:28
  #9772 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
That's a specious argument that assumes that while Labour's 23% is split the Tory 32% is not. That makes no sense at all because both parties presumably have loyalists who despite this take divergent views on Brexit, especially a NoDeal.
Right, OK then, if you say so....
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 10:42
  #9773 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
People seemed clear (in another place in another discussion a week or three back) that the Tories in the centre can impose a candidate on a local party, which must therefore involve the "deselection" of whoever the local party had already appointed as PPC.

But with the Tories now apparently going hell-for-leather for full-on Momentum-style central dictatorship they will, no doubt, if they feel the need, just change the rules from day to day, like Momentum change Labour's rules from day to day.
Can't disagree with that. Political extremists at both ends use exactly the same tactics. Support us without question or you're out.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 10:50
  #9774 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Right, OK then, if you say so....
Thank you. It's so rare that somebody graciously accepts that they are wrong.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 10:58
  #9775 (permalink)  
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People seemed clear (in another place in another discussion a week or three back) that the Tories in the centre can impose a candidate on a local party, which must therefore involve the "deselection" of whoever the local party had already appointed as PPC.
Was always thus, how else do the 'chosen' ones get elected in safe seats?

At a local level in a marginal constituency I imagine they want the best possible candidate in order to win. This might be a well known local character or maybe a better known national one. The least the national party will do is provide a list with a suitable selection of ethnic, gender, or whatever. The local party may be limited to selection from a short list.

I will ask one of the faithful this afternoon. GTW will also know his own parties plans.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 11:33
  #9776 (permalink)  
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They cannot impose a candidate, though they do control the list of candidates for the country and nominate a list of three candidates from which the local constituency has the choice.

Nationally individuals apply to be to be a Conservative Constituency Candidate. Those selected from applicants are invited in groups to attend a weekend of interviews and briefings (for which they pay about £300 to cover the costs). Those that are accepted join the national list. If and when a bye or national election is imminent CCHQ asks individuals on the list if they are willing to stand in a selected seat, or seats. Of those volunteering, a short list of 3 is selected for and forwarded to the local association.

In addition to the above, if the local association has a particular local member who wishes to be considered for their seat, they can nominate them to the national board. They go through the same selection and weekend of interviews, but if selected are earmarked for that seat and will automatically be 1 of the 3 on the eventual list.

The 3 nominees are interviewed by the Executive Officers of the local association and, by secret ballot, they nominate not less 2 of the 3 to present themselves at an AGM of the association for a candidate to be adopted. Where a candidate was already selected and stood at a previous election, and if agreed by the national board, that sole candidate can be presented for nomination at the AGM.

Different rules for a sitting MP.

https://www.politicalpartydb.org/wp-...UTION_2009.pdf





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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 11:49
  #9777 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
GTW will also know his own parties plans.
It's a local party decision, give or take some potentially complex rules where local party boundaries are not contiguous with constituency boundaries, but then we do have geeks who love tinkering with the details of constitutions.

And the process for changing our constitution is not at the on-the-fly whim of a Momentum-type clique or a Cummings-type dictator, but is a long involved process involving a conference decision (F23 at this year's conference). Mildly surprised to see that scheduled for 1700 on the Sunday, I was vaguely under the impression that these things were usually in the 0900 Sunday slot when nobody is out of bed yet. I used to rely on the advice of one of my local colleagues (a constitution geek) to tell me whether amendments were good or bad, but he is sadly no longer with us so I might have to read it myself.

----

The main difference between our process and the Tory one posted by ORAC is that in our case the local party does the shortlisting. We have a similar sounding process for getting to be an approved candidate in the first place - only people on the approved candidates list can apply to local parties to be selected.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 12:15
  #9778 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat
We have a similar sounding process for getting to be an approved candidate in the first place - only people on the approved candidates list can apply to local parties to be selected.
So how on earth did god-bothering, homophobic, nice-but-dim tim get through? Me thinks the 'process' is flawed.

Thank you for reading
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 13:04
  #9779 (permalink)  
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Things happening quickly in Westminster.

Tony Blair give Speech this morning begging JC not to put an election before stopping Brexit.

JC gave Speech this morning, and interview with Sky, stating if offered the chance of an election he would take it, regardless of circumstances.

Cabinet called to No10 for meeting this afternoon, even though there is a planned meeting in the morning.

Press agog to to see what is going to happen....
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 13:11
  #9780 (permalink)  
 
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From BJ's perspective, it sounds like a GE would almost be a no-brainer. If there were to be a GE, then there seems to be near-zero chance of Labour making any significant gains, the chances are they may lose seats, perhaps to the LibDems. It seems likely that BJ might end up in a significantly stronger position, one where he doesn't have to rely on the DUP in order to be able to govern.

Pretty grim prospect for the country, IMHO, having a government led by BJ for the next five years, though.
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