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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 22nd Aug 2019, 09:44
  #9561 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Actually I donít disagree with that: I work sometimes in Ireland and was impressed by their down to earth attitude in the immediate aftermath of the crash and subsequent hard work to set things straight. My comment was directed at Ms Sturgeonís loopy-loo financial projections: Iím not at all sure the EU would ignore their financial rules in the event of a Scottish application to (re)join just to annoy an ex-member. Yes, they did so for Greece. Look where that got them.
The EU limit is 3%. Currently Scotland is running at 7%. At what point can the EU carry on incorporating more net beneficiaries (Wales, N Ireland)? With the (potential) loss of the UK as a net contributor, the EU will either have to have a full fiscal union, whereby it can take more tax form those current members who are net contributors. Or reduce payments to net beneficiaries. No one likes getting less than they have been promised.
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Old 22nd Aug 2019, 11:10
  #9562 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Actually I donít disagree with that: I work sometimes in Ireland and was impressed by their down to earth attitude in the immediate aftermath of the crash and subsequent hard work to set things straight. My comment was directed at Ms Sturgeonís loopy-loo financial projections: Iím not at all sure the EU would ignore their financial rules in the event of a Scottish application to (re)join just to annoy an ex-member. Yes, they did so for Greece. Look where that got them.
The economy is open hence a recession hits them harder but the upside benefits them as well.

I know not a single family in Ireland who has not had someone emigrate whether it was in the 20's 50's, 80's or this century. They are used to it and while they bitch about it there is the benefit that Irish communities around the world get new blood every generation. Many will also return bring ideas they learned overseas.

What seems to be a hate is the way the rich and powerful have tried to hold onto their assets while poorer people struggled.

It is why they expect a hard brexit, they will deal with it because collectively they have dealt with the **** from their neighbour before. In one generation they have sucessfully pivoted away from total reliance on UK to elsewhere.

They see themselves as European, NOT because Europe has pumped money in but because Europe has treated them as a partner, a part of a project. There is nobody looking down their noses at them because they are Irish, sadly unlike in UK where have seen it done.

I find curious that people in UK seem to believe Ireland has always relied on UK until you ask do they know of the Irish Colleges in Salamance and other places across Europe. It was a shock to me when I found in the 80's that more Irish people had died fighting in France's colours than anybody else.

Ireland was always European, it will remain so.
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Old 22nd Aug 2019, 16:10
  #9563 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post

What seems to be a hate is the way the rich and powerful have tried to hold onto their assets while poorer people struggled.
It could be argued that the influx of lower cost Eastern European labour, and easy investment directly into those same lower cost countries facilitated by the EU, has played a significant role in enabling, and possibly even exacerbating, this inequality.
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Old 22nd Aug 2019, 20:15
  #9564 (permalink)  
 
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The ability of the rich to hold on to their assets is hardly unique to Ireland, or to the EU. Thatís why theyíre rich!

At the time Ireland was successfully putting its house in order, the Scottish banks which the SNPís financial projections had relied upon received a bailout from the UK exchequer amounting to over £80,000 for every Scot.
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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 12:24
  #9565 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Paultheparaglider View Post
It could be argued that the influx of lower cost Eastern European labour, and easy investment directly into those same lower cost countries facilitated by the EU, has played a significant role in enabling, and possibly even exacerbating, this inequality.
I was talking about the ability of the rich in ireland to get out of paying their debt, nothing to do with inequality.

Bearing in mind as I said that people taking final year exams in school was circa 120,000, economy will probably create 50-60,000 jobs and even with retirements, kids going to college and kids leaving college there is pretty much zero slack in the labour market then why would it be an issue ?
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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 12:25
  #9566 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
The ability of the rich to hold on to their assets is hardly unique to Ireland, or to the EU. Thatís why theyíre rich!

At the time Ireland was successfully putting its house in order, the Scottish banks which the SNPís financial projections had relied upon received a bailout from the UK exchequer amounting to over £80,000 for every Scot.
Scottish Banks ? Don't you mean the ones headquartered in Scotland who had huge operations all across UK.
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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 15:34
  #9567 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Labour Party new PPC for Southend revealed.......

https://order-order.com/2019/08/23/s...rse-candidate/

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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 16:10
  #9568 (permalink)  
 
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He sounds like a lovely chap, full of momentum to get things done.

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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 17:45
  #9569 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Labour Party new PPC for Southend revealed.......

https://order-order.com/2019/08/23/s...rse-candidate/
A few years ago it was Jack Monroe but "They" pulled out for some reason. Not to worry I don't think Sonny boy will trouble the current MP.
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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 18:25
  #9570 (permalink)  
 
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Scottish Banks...? The Scottish financial sector was the keystone of the SNPís financial figures pre-crash. As you rightly say, extensive footprint all over UK...and the RBS for one has stated it will immediately move to England in the event of independence.
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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 21:46
  #9571 (permalink)  
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https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...uspicion-fraud

Sheffield Hallam MP Jared OíMara arrested on suspicion of fraud

Sheffield Hallam MP Jared OíMara has been arrested on suspicion of fraud, according to reports.

The former Labour MPís constituency office was raided by Police last Friday, where they confiscated documents and computers, the Daily Mirror claims. Mr OíMaraís office manager Gareth Arnold was also arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to commit fraud. Both men were released the following evening pending further investigation.

The paper adds that concerns were raised about Parliamentary expense claims made by the MP. South Yorkshire Police has declined to comment.

The Mirror also reports that Mr OíMara has submitted the necessary paperwork to resign as an MP, and has dated it for when Parliament returns from recess in early September. The 37-year-old, who won the seat from former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg in 2017, said in late July that he was no longer "in a fit state" to continue the post......
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Old 23rd Aug 2019, 22:00
  #9572 (permalink)  
 
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Not really surprised by this ORAC, the whole situation in Sheffield Hallam is a mess and the constituents have been very very badly let down.
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 05:27
  #9573 (permalink)  
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https://www.thenational.scot/news/17...election-poll/

Tories take 14-point lead over Labour in General Election poll

THE Conservative Party has seen big boost in support since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister, according to a new online poll from Kantar.

The media company found now 42% of UK voters would now back the Tories compared to 25% back in May. Analysis has suggested the party's tough new stance on Brexit and talk of a No-Deal has boosted its support.

Meanwhile, Kantar's poll showed 28% for Labour, down from 34% in May, unchanged 15% support for the LibDems and a 10% drop in backing for the Brexit Party taking them down to 5%. The poll also put the SNP at 5%, again unchanged since its previous research.

Craig Watkins, UK CEO of Kantar Public, told Reuters there had been a "significant shift". ďWe have a new Conservative Prime Minister who has taken a very clear stance on handling the Brexit negotiation and Brexit itself and that messaging seems to be cutting through to the public,Ē he said.

Political commentator John Rentoul explained a 14 point lead could give Johnson's party a 192-seat majority, which would be bigger than Tony Blair's.

A YouGov poll placing the Tories in the lead was also released this week. That study showed the Tories on an eight-point lead, which Rentoul explained could mean a majority of 94.......

Kantar's online poll of 1133 people was carried out between August 15 and 19.


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Old 24th Aug 2019, 07:42
  #9574 (permalink)  
 
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Kantar's online poll of 1133 people was carried out between August 15 and 19.
Online polling is probably the principal reason for the issues with accuracy in recent years. It is very noticeable that when exit polls are done, face to face, the results are pretty close to reality. People are far less likely to lie (well give their real opinions away) face to face, and when your polling online you don't actually know who is answering, and have any idea what their demographic is - male, female, 20 or 70. You don't even know where they are in the country. You only know what the respondent has clicked on their device.
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 08:56
  #9575 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The Mirror also reports that Mr OíMara has submitted the necessary paperwork to resign as an MP, and has dated it for when Parliament returns from recess in early September.
How do MPs get to be able to do that then?

Councillors can't send in post-dated resignations, they take effect immediately on receipt whatever date you write on the letter. (This can matter, as the timing of resignations can be important, and you might be abroad or in hospital or whatever on the day you have to hand it in, so I was vaguely under the impression, not having done it myself, that you got one of your mates to hand it in on the right date.)
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 09:08
  #9576 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
How do MPs get to be able to do that then?)
Because they write the rules themselves.

Just my opinion, but do Parliamentary years, terms count towards a lump sum payment on resignation? Will the timing of his resignation have an effect on his pension?

Money!!
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 09:13
  #9577 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Online polling is probably the principal reason for the issues with accuracy in recent years. It is very noticeable that when exit polls are done, face to face, the results are pretty close to reality. People are far less likely to lie (well give their real opinions away) face to face, and when your polling online you don't actually know who is answering, and have any idea what their demographic is - male, female, 20 or 70. You don't even know where they are in the country. You only know what the respondent has clicked on their device.
Probably less of an issue nowadays, but this excludes the part of the electorate that either doesnít have online access (more likely Labour voters) or isnít internet-savvy (older voters). They most likely try and factor for that, but it is a weakness.
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 09:20
  #9578 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Curious Pax View Post


Probably less of an issue nowadays, but this excludes the part of the electorate that either doesnít have online access (more likely Labour voters) or isnít internet-savvy (older voters). They most likely try and factor for that, but it is a weakness.
I was polled a few years ago by Comres, by phone - something which probably with GDPR is nigh on impossible today. Opening questions were demographics, sex, age, marital status, work status etc. As the call was on land line, they know where I live. Once I was established as eligible the questionnaire began.

Nowadays, with mobiles, nobody has a clue where anyone lives, and nobody has any idea who is completing the survey. Person "A" may be selected, but politically motivated "Person B" may answer or influence the responses. However if you want to save money, then online is the way to go, if you want to offer up quality results, then face to face is best, telephone second best. Sadly, money talks.
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 15:38
  #9579 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
How do MPs get to be able to do that then?

Councillors can't send in post-dated resignations, they take effect immediately on receipt whatever date you write on the letter. (This can matter, as the timing of resignations can be important, and you might be abroad or in hospital or whatever on the day you have to hand it in, so I was vaguely under the impression, not having done it myself, that you got one of your mates to hand it in on the right date.)
Couldnít he just put the signed paperwork in a plain white A4 envelope marked ďDo not open before xxx dateĒ?
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 16:14
  #9580 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
Couldnít he just put the signed paperwork in a plain white A4 envelope marked ďDo not open before xxx dateĒ?
Well, that's my "get one of your mates to hand it in on the right date" option really. What councillors can't do is put in a letter saying "I resign with effect from ...".

(The main reason for wanting to get the timing right is to save money by making sure the by-election happens on a day when there is already going to be some other election. Get it wrong and the voters will quite reasonably get pissed off with having to vote in, and pay for, two elections just a few weeks apart.)
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