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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 20th May 2019, 06:55
  #8081 (permalink)  
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POLITICO:

STOP ME IF YOU’VE HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE: British and American political journalists may feel a twinge of deja vu when reading
from 7 News’ political reporter Jennifer Bechwati, who did not see Saturday’s shock election victory for the right-wing Coalition coming at all.

“My mea culpa,” she wrote. “Polls are useless … The majority of Australians don’t back further action on climate change — or major tax reform … Twitter is not representative of the wider Australian view … Always listen to family and friends outside of Canberra” …

Any of this sound familiar at all?
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Old 20th May 2019, 07:54
  #8082 (permalink)  
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What exactly would happen if nothing has happened on 31 Oct?

Do all ports stop? Do all aircraft return to take off airfield? Do we have the military and police on both sides preventing commerce?

Essentially we have two trading blocks being interfered with by two political blocks.

If the EU see that we have not signed nothing to implement a no deal nothing changes to nothing happens.

As said above, all about money. As long as we honour our agreements to pay, why should they care?
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Old 20th May 2019, 13:37
  #8083 (permalink)  
 
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Now Our Nige is milking it...

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartandhp

Paul Crowther, 32, from Throckley, Newcastle, said it was a £5.25 Five Guys banana and salted caramel milkshake.
Yummy
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Old 20th May 2019, 14:08
  #8084 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
It could well happen. Dominic Grieve on Newsnight last week when questioned about Boris becoming PM issued a pretty clear threat that he would support a no confidence motion should he try to push a NoDeal through. Bear in mind that with the three Change defectors their position is already precarious..
Change have said that they won't support a VoNC as have the Lib Dems; in the latter's case until Corbyn comes out unequivocally for a second referendum.

Without those two on board, the votes for a VoNC are limited to 286 (Lab + SNP + PC + Gr). Despite the posturing, I doubt if many Conservatives would back a VoNC if a Corbyn government is on the cards. Even if they did a GE needs 60% support.
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Old 20th May 2019, 19:03
  #8085 (permalink)  
 
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We are in uncharted territory now. If as expected the next Tory leader is a NoDeal Leaver then I think that anything could happen. There are politicians out there prepared to sacrifice their careers to prevent such an outcome so, all bets are off.
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Old 20th May 2019, 20:21
  #8086 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
We are in uncharted territory now. If as expected the next Tory leader is a NoDeal Leaver then I think that anything could happen. There are politicians out there prepared to sacrifice their careers to prevent such an outcome so, all bets are off.
So that would leave the Westminster shower with two options;

A. Sign off the May/EU deal.
B. Revoke Article 50.

What happens next if the May/EU deal is rejected again and revoking Article 50 is also currently not an accepted/agreed option either, surely that only leaves the option they don’t want and if the EU do not extend again, I know they will as they are happy to continue to receive the UK payments, then the UK will have no legal grounds for not leaving into WTO rules as they will be in default of Article 50, so committing political suicide would not change that outcome.

I also reckon that whoever is in charge will not make any difference to the current status of Brexit within Westminster while the current incumbents are still able to vote in the HoC’s.
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Old 20th May 2019, 20:41
  #8087 (permalink)  
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https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-...umph-in-wales/




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Old 20th May 2019, 21:04
  #8088 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Doors to Automatic View Post
Change have said that they won't support a VoNC as have the Lib Dems; in the latter's case until Corbyn comes out unequivocally for a second referendum.

Without those two on board, the votes for a VoNC are limited to 286 (Lab + SNP + PC + Gr). Despite the posturing, I doubt if many Conservatives would back a VoNC if a Corbyn government is on the cards. Even if they did a GE needs 60% support.
Change and the LibDems want the Tory rank and file to fall into the trap of electing an extreme Brexiteer as leader, who will chuck the country off the cliff with no deal, then (from their perspective) hoover up votes in the general election that will surely follow not long after. The trap is pretty well set, the Conservative membership will more than likely fall into it. Whether the consequences turn out to be as they hope remains to be seen.
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Old 20th May 2019, 21:23
  #8089 (permalink)  
 
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I think that probably is the plan, and as you say it appears to be working. I intend voting LD for the first time ever on Thursday and I have lifelong Tory voting friends who are doing the same.
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Old 20th May 2019, 21:35
  #8090 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
I think that probably is the plan, and as you say it appears to be working. I intend voting LD for the first time ever on Thursday and I have lifelong Tory voting friends who are doing the same.
I will be voting either Change or LD - probably the latter, although going forward I feel my home is probably closer to Change. What's important is that the remain leaning members of the electorate turn out and vote, as sure as hell committed Brexiteers will. It will play very bad on the remain side if in percentage terms they fall well behind the Brexit and UKIP vote - it takes much of the wind out of the rescind Art.50 or new referendum arguments if it does.
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Old 20th May 2019, 21:58
  #8091 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
The trap is pretty well set, the Conservative membership will more than likely fall into it. Whether the consequences turn out to be as they hope remains to be seen.
Do the Conservatives still hope? I fear that the behaviour of the party and government which, traditionally, they have trusted and supported has acted in such a dishonest and deceitful manner that they are ashamed to be associated with it and no longer will subscribe to this delinquent assembly. Hell, even arch-Tory Heseltine claims to prefer the Lib Dems (although he may not be a good demonstration of my point since the value of his so-called loyalty was demonstrated years ago). With that lack of faith comes a loss of hope - the EU elections will be largely un-fought by the Conservative party, recognising that ignoring the event might prove less embarrassing than fighting and spectacularly losing. Since there is little prospect of reconstructing the party as a truly Conservative entity and regaining a national credibility, hope will remain in very short supply indeed. I predict the most frightful drubbing by the Brexit party; the Conservatives have no-one to blame other than themselves. But will they learn? This too remains to be seen. I'm anything but sanguine.

Lord North often is quoted as the "worst" Prime Minister in British political history - he lost us the North American colonies. I nominate Theresa May for that shameful honour; she is bent upon losing us our own nationhood - an infinitely more heinous crime..
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Old 21st May 2019, 04:44
  #8092 (permalink)  
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TM is clinging on to No 10 like a limpet.....
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...may-face-fresh

Theresa May to face fresh attempt to oust her despite Brexit truce

Senior Tories will consider a fresh attempt to change party rules in a bid to boot Theresa May out of office more easily, PoliticsHome can reveal.

A meeting of the executive of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers will hear calls for the Prime Minister to face a fresh confidence vote next month.

Mrs May has said that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill - the legislation needed to take the UK out of the EU - must be passed before Parliament's summer recess at the end of July.

The draft legislation will be put to a Commons vote in the first week of June, and Mrs May has agreed to set out when she will stand down if it is defeated. However, some MPs are concerned she could take the extraordinary step of cancelling the summer recess to buy herself more time to get it through.

Under current rules, a Tory leader cannot face a vote of no confidence more than once a year, which means MRs May cannot be challenged again until December. An attempt to reduce that to six months was defeated 9-7 at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive last month. Now one member of the executive has revealed they will call for another vote on the proposal when they meet again on Wednesday.

The MP said: "The big fear is she might try to cancel the summer recess in order to get Brexit through. The suggestion was mentioned at the last meeting and some people were nodding their heads. That would be catastrophic. We cannot wait another half year if she tries to stay on.".......

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Old 21st May 2019, 05:19
  #8093 (permalink)  
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https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1765...in-south-east/

Brexit party surges ahead of rivals in south east

NIGEL Farage’s Brexit Party has almost double the support of its nearest rival in the South East, a new poll shows.

The group has 37 per cent of the vote share compared with the Lib Dems’ 21 per cent. This is higher than the national support for the Brexit Party which sits at 34 per cent.

The Conservatives and Labour are languishing on 11 and 10 per cent respectively......... Other parties in the South East are the Greens with 11 per cent of the vote, the newly formed Change UK with 5 per cent and Farage’s former party Ukip with 3 per cent.

Anti-Brexit campaign group Best For Britain commissioned the study of voters alongside Hope Not Hate. A total of 9,260 voters were surveyed, including 1,308 from the South East.

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Old 21st May 2019, 06:21
  #8094 (permalink)  
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Even from the LSE.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/...t-question-it/
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Old 21st May 2019, 06:38
  #8095 (permalink)  
 
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Given the money that Farage is throwing at the Brexit Party campaign (from wherever, and however it is being garnered in) it is hardly surprising that those disgruntled Brexit voters would be gravitating towards his pressure group (whatever he says it's only a political party for electoral rules reasons). I've had two communications from the Brexit party, both well designed and well printed, and not done a shoe string, a flyer from Labour which says nothing about the EP elections, a letter from the LibDems and frankly, diddly squat from any other party.

Remains to be seen how many party funding laws Farage is breaking, we won't know until after the election in all possibility, when the (alleged) violations have produced the result Farage is working towards. If imfringements are identified then the offenders need to be jailed, not just fined, they have deep pockets and probably have a contingency for such eventualities.
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Old 21st May 2019, 07:03
  #8096 (permalink)  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/turk...nion-can-hurt/

Turkey shows Britain that a customs union can hurt

British fans of a customs union after Brexit would do well to take a long, hard look at Turkey.

Twenty-three years after it came into force, the EU's customs union with Turkey is buckling under the strain. Ankara claims that it is getting a raw deal and last year started imposing protective tariffs on a number of imports from the EU. European officials warn that these new duties undermine the whole point of an agreement designed to promote tariff-free trade.

At the heart of Turkish complaints lies a fundamental problem that would also affect Britain: As Brussels inks new trade accords around the globe, goods from those partner countries can enter the EU at reduced or zero tariff rates and then flow on for free into Turkey via the customs union. Turkish companies, however, do not benefit from reciprocal tariff cuts when exporting to those countries because Ankara is not part of the EU trade deals.

"The entire customs union is eroding," said Bahadır Kaleağası, secretary-general of the Turkish business association TÜSIAD, complaining that Turkey has to shoulder the impact of increased competition without being able to reap the benefits of new trade agreements........
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Old 21st May 2019, 07:13
  #8097 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.politico.eu/article/turk...nion-can-hurt/

Turkey shows Britain that a customs union can hurt

British fans of a customs union after Brexit would do well to take a long, hard look at Turkey.

Twenty-three years after it came into force, the EU's customs union with Turkey is buckling under the strain. Ankara claims that it is getting a raw deal and last year started imposing protective tariffs on a number of imports from the EU. European officials warn that these new duties undermine the whole point of an agreement designed to promote tariff-free trade.

At the heart of Turkish complaints lies a fundamental problem that would also affect Britain: As Brussels inks new trade accords around the globe, goods from those partner countries can enter the EU at reduced or zero tariff rates and then flow on for free into Turkey via the customs union. Turkish companies, however, do not benefit from reciprocal tariff cuts when exporting to those countries because Ankara is not part of the EU trade deals.

"The entire customs union is eroding," said Bahadır Kaleağası, secretary-general of the Turkish business association TÜSIAD, complaining that Turkey has to shoulder the impact of increased competition without being able to reap the benefits of new trade agreements........
Turkey has got a chip on it's political shoulder since it hates criticism of how Erdogan is running the country, and particularly how he runs roughshod over Turkey's alleged democracy.

If Turkey had taken a different path politically, the the customs agreement between Turkey and the EU would surely have broadened, but as it is the EU, and not just the EU are distancing themselves from the Erdogan regime.* Despite that Turkey is the source of many of the vehicle parts that are used by the European car industry, and this has only happened becaause of the trade agreements that are in place with the EU.

It is disingenuous of Politico to compare the limited customs union between Turkey and the EU, with that which (currently) exists for the UK within the EU customs union. The two are quite different. Then Politico is in the business of peddling anti EU nonsense - that's why people of that mindset read it.
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Old 21st May 2019, 07:27
  #8098 (permalink)  
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POLITICO: https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...airy-dairy-me/

Last night’s TV: Nick Watt broke the story of Boris’ potential new chums on Newsnight at 10.57 p.m. “I understand they are giving very serious consideration to backing a Brexiteer as the next leader of the Conservative Party,” Watt said, of the 60-strong group of moderate MPs. “The thinking is ‘no’ to somebody like Dominic Raab, because he seems far too keen on a no-deal Brexit, but a possible ‘yes’ to Boris Johnson. They would essentially be saying to him ‘look, if you give us an undertaking that you will really try for a deal over about a period of 12 to 18 months, then we would look [at you] very seriously. In other words, if you don’t jump straight into no deal.”

I wonder who was watching? A whole nine minutes later at 11.06 p.m., Johnson was suddenly tweeting his support for the “One Nation” manifesto. “Agree with all of this,” Boris announced. “One Nation values have never been more important.” What on earth could have prompted this show of love?

And then look: Within seconds, One Nation big-hitter Amber Rudd — who has made it be known she’d just *love* to be chancellor one day — was liking Boris’s tweet. It looks rather like the much-hyped “Bamber” ticket is happening........

Running scared: Interestingly, a new poll of readers of the LabourList website finds Johnson is the candidate they would least like to face in a general election. Almost half the 4,000-plus respondents (45 percent) picked Boris as the hardest opponent to beat, with Rory Stewart a distant second on 7.6 percent and Amber Rudd in third.

Sounds about right: Inside Jeremy Corbyn’s office there is a keen awareness that prime minister Boris would bring very different challenges to what they have faced before. One senior official tells Playbook the “ideal candidate” for Labour would be Dominic Raab. “He’s actually psychotic enough to try to take us out without a deal, and against the will of parliament,” the source said. “It absolutely suits us to face an ideologue like that.”.........


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Old 21st May 2019, 10:13
  #8099 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Turkey has got a chip on it's political shoulder since it hates criticism of how Erdogan is running the country, and particularly how he runs roughshod over Turkey's alleged democracy.

If Turkey had taken a different path politically, the the customs agreement between Turkey and the EU would surely have broadened, but as it is the EU, and not just the EU are distancing themselves from the Erdogan regime.* Despite that Turkey is the source of many of the vehicle parts that are used by the European car industry, and this has only happened becaause of the trade agreements that are in place with the EU.

It is disingenuous of Politico to compare the limited customs union between Turkey and the EU, with that which (currently) exists for the UK within the EU customs union. The two are quite different. Then Politico is in the business of peddling anti EU nonsense - that's why people of that mindset read it.
Why do you think the UK agreed to a EU trade deal with Japan that will lead eventually to no tariffs on cars manufactured and imported from Japan? Just curious.
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Old 21st May 2019, 11:34
  #8100 (permalink)  
 
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It is clear that the politicians in the UK and the EU live in a completely different universe to the electorate who put them in power. The British electorate voted to leave the EU on the promise that the UK would simply leave, no deals, no compromise. The whole debacle was initiated because the EU would not accede to UK demands for compromise over certain aspects of our relationship.

The Eurovision song contest result was a bellweather indication of what members of the public in the EU felt about our relationship, the UK received virtually no support and ended up in last place. The professional jurors had us placed midway in the table. The UK song did not deserve to be in last place in in an era of warmer relationships would have been in the top ten finalists.

What this single and unofficial poll suggests is that the general population across the EU are happy to see the UK depart, the sooner the better. We certainly know and will have it confirmed on Thursday, that the UK should be leaving the EU without a deal.

The Brexit Party may be a single issue party, but that single issue has bogged down domestic and international politics for three years and this situation cannot continue. I shall be voting for the Brexit Party on Thursday and subsequently support whichever politician or political party that promises to extract the UK from the EU without a deal, as soon as possible. That is the most important issue facing the UK right now. How we subsequently deal with and sanction lying politicians may become a hot political topic after Brexit. I expect history will deal harshly with Theresa May since it has become apparent that her ambition all along was to sabotage Brexit. Leopards do not change their spots and she was never in favour of Brexit from the start.

For better or worse, the Brexit Party will become the political force to be reckoned with through the EU and next General Election.
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