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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 17th May 2019, 10:07
  #8021 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Projected Seats:

BXP: 33 (+33)
LDM: 10 (+9)
LAB: 10 (-10)
GRN: 8 (+5)
CON: 5 (-14)
SNP: 3 (+1)
PLC: 1 (=)
UKIP: 0 (-24)

Changes w/ 2014



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Old 17th May 2019, 10:47
  #8022 (permalink)  
 
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Ah, it's Change UK, I thought it was Chuk after their leader...…

I listened to their representative at the local hustings earlier this week. Very enthusiastic but not overly impressive, it was the first time she had done it so good on her for at least having the gumption to get up on the stage!
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Old 17th May 2019, 11:16
  #8023 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
My bold. How will Scotland and NI achieve this given that it is accepted that when the UK leaves the EU Scotland and NI leave automatically too? Are you suggesting that in the future they will leave the UK at some point and apply to rejoin the EU?
Scotland would have to indyref then apply like any existing 3rd country, NI has the option to leave the UK to rejoin the rest of Ireand under the Good Friday Agreement, and the EU has stated that under those circumstances it would automatically be part of the EU.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...tion-1.3066569

JAS
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Old 17th May 2019, 12:20
  #8024 (permalink)  
 
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Scotland will sooner or later leave the UK, under SNP promises of a fast track back into the EU.

Once there is a majority wanting to change their destiny they will insist upon it, regardless of the consequences.

It worked for Brexit.
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Old 17th May 2019, 12:44
  #8025 (permalink)  
 
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Everything that has happened to date is because politicians and various vested interests have tried to overturn the Brexit referendum result. The question was put whether to leave the EU or not and the answer was to leave.

There was no option, nor any desire to opt to remain partially within the EU, to maintain a customs union, or to maintain a legal system that ensured parity with EU decisions and regulations.

A third option could have been encompassed within the original EU referendum ballot but it was not. The current parliamentary mess is precisely because MPs have been debating the terms of such a third option in the hopes of avoiding a true Brexit. That is not what what people voted for and the EU election results next week will serve to prove the point.

Boris Johnson or anyone who will fast track a no deal Brexit is guaranteed to become the next leader of the Conservatives.

Out means out!
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Old 17th May 2019, 12:58
  #8026 (permalink)  
 
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It is generally accepted that Labour splits 3:1 against Brexit while Tories splutter 3:1 in favour. So according to that we have

Labour 13.5% PC 16% LD 10% Green 8% Change 4% Tory 2% Total 53.5% Anti Brexit

Brexit 33% Tory 5% Labour 4.5%. Total 42.5% Pro Brexit
'Generally accepted' by whom? The only certainty of your figures is that 100% of Brexit Party supporters are pro Brexit. I am happy to believe for the purposes of debate that 99.?% of LibDem voters are anti. 'Change' are, I'm afraid, irrelevant when it comes to likely future MPs. The majority of Labour constituencies voted pro-leave, so do Labour candidates want to get elected? What will their manifesto say?
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Old 17th May 2019, 14:07
  #8027 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Scotland will sooner or later leave the UK, under SNP promises of a fast track back into the EU.

Once there is a majority wanting to change their destiny they will insist upon it, regardless of the consequences.

It worked for Brexit.
Is the SNP promising a fast track into the EU, or is the EU promising a fast track entry? Either way, do we know if Scotland will have to adopt the Euro as I understand all new membership candidates to the EU have to?

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Old 17th May 2019, 14:10
  #8028 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
Is the SNP promising a fast track into the EU, or is the EU promising a fast track entry? Either way, do we know if Scotland will have to adopt the Euro as I understand all new membership candidates to the EU have to?
Neither is promising anything yet. They will be waiting to see what happens after Brexit
And your understanding is wrong.
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Old 17th May 2019, 14:29
  #8029 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Neither is promising anything yet. They will be waiting to see what happens after Brexit
And your understanding is wrong.
I don't think my understanding is wrong. All EU new entrants have to adopt the Euro - eventually. But there is no prescribed timetable, another fudge. The last three entrants have not joined the Euro but they are not excluded (or pardoned) from doing so. Only the UK and Denmark have watertight exemptions.

This from the BBC News website:

"... Since 1999, all new EU members are obliged to commit in principle to joining the euro once they meet certain criteria. However, there is also no mechanism that actually forces a new EU member to adopt it. ..."

So it looks as though it can be kicked into the very very long grass.
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Old 17th May 2019, 14:43
  #8030 (permalink)  
 
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Judging by last night's Question Time from Elgin, it would appear that there are a number of Scots who want to leave both the UK and the EU. Highly critical of the SNP approach to rejoin the EU. Strange times.
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Old 17th May 2019, 15:42
  #8031 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
I don't think my understanding is wrong. All EU new entrants have to adopt the Euro - eventually. But there is no prescribed timetable, another fudge. The last three entrants have not joined the Euro but they are not excluded (or pardoned) from doing so. Only the UK and Denmark have watertight exemptions.

This from the BBC News website:

"... Since 1999, all new EU members are obliged to commit in principle to joining the euro once they meet certain criteria. However, there is also no mechanism that actually forces a new EU member to adopt it. ..."

So it looks as though it can be kicked into the very very long grass.
Yes. There is no compulsion to join the Euro

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Old 17th May 2019, 17:03
  #8032 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
'Generally accepted' by whom? The only certainty of your figures is that 100% of Brexit Party supporters are pro Brexit. I am happy to believe for the purposes of debate that 99.?% of LibDem voters are anti. 'Change' are, I'm afraid, irrelevant when it comes to likely future MPs. The majority of Labour constituencies voted pro-leave, so do Labour candidates want to get elected? What will their manifesto say?
You really can't have it both ways. If you accept that 75% of Tory voters are in favour of Leave then you really must accept the reverse of that. If you don't then you have to find a reason to explain how the 2016 vote ended up so close, the maths just won't stack up any other way. Either way all the evidence is that after next weekend the old claim that 80% of voters supported pro Brexit parties is no longer going to wash. But will the Brexiteers accept the evidence of a big swing against them? I very much doubt it.
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Old 17th May 2019, 17:21
  #8033 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Grayfly View Post
Judging by last night's Question Time from Elgin, it would appear that there are a number of Scots who want to leave both the UK and the EU. Highly critical of the SNP approach to rejoin the EU. Strange times.
Yep, I met one of them the week after the referendum. Their reasons for wanting out of both are basically ME, ME, ME. (in this guy's case it was so he could buy fish from the local village port for a quid a fish!!!!).
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Old 17th May 2019, 17:47
  #8034 (permalink)  
 
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I can't see that the EU election will provide much clarity. Brexit will get a big chunk of votes but we already know that. What sort of brexit? Nada. If we do leave the EU we will need to negotiate a trade agreement. That agreement will by necessity restrict what happens to third party goods. We won't have unalloyed freedom to negotiate with other countries without impacting that agreement. I would be content with a customs union, trying to wind back to pre- Maastricht. Leaving Eurovision would be a nice bonus though.
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Old 17th May 2019, 19:11
  #8035 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...bers-6x5fcrcx3

Boris Johnson crushes leadership rivals in poll of Tory members

Boris Johnson is the clear favourite to be the next prime minister, according to the first poll of Tory members since the start of the leadership contest.

The former foreign secretary is the first choice to replace Theresa May among 39 per cent of the membership. The second most popular is Dominic Raab on 13 per cent, with all the other contenders on single figures. In a head-to-head run-off, Mr Johnson resoundingly beats Mr Raab by 59 points to 41, and beats every other contender by an even bigger margin......

The poll is likely to prove disappointing for many of those who have spent months discussing their leadership prospects. Mr Gove and Mr Javid, who are considering running but have yet to make formal announcements, are both the first choice of only 9 per cent of the membership.

Mr Hunt, the foreign secretary who has been amassing support among MPs for months, is the first choice of 8 per cent while Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader who has declared her candidacy and ran last time, is the first choice of 5 per cent, as is Penny Mordaunt, the defence secretary. Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is the first choice of 1 per cent, beaten by Rory Stewart, a newcomer to the cabinet as international development secretary, on 4 per cent.......

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Old 17th May 2019, 19:22
  #8036 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
It is generally accepted that Labour splits 3:1 against Brexit .........
That may well be so in London and among a certain demographic. However using my local as a bellweather where the punters represent all shades of politics. The Labour people are, apart from one chap, all leavers. This being a typical pub in the south east. Taking a rough estimate I reckon the pub is split about 75/25 leave with about 90% of the remainers being students at the local uni.

Of course this is about as unreliable a forecast as many. Just a snapshot from real life.

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Old 17th May 2019, 19:30
  #8037 (permalink)  
 
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Now think carefully about this. Those Leave supporters who vote Labour, are they still Labour? I'll bet that they have already decamped to Nige and Aaron's party. So they will be counted amongst the Brexit 33%. We are taking about those staying loyal to their party for whatever reason. In fact it's likely that they are less likely to be Leave or they would have gone already.
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Old 17th May 2019, 20:31
  #8038 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...bers-6x5fcrcx3

Boris Johnson crushes leadership rivals in poll of Tory members
Received wisdom among the Westminster chattering classes (inasmuch as such a thing still exists) is that Tory MPs will rally behind 2 Ďanyone but Borisí candidates when they have their ballot. That way the aged Tory faithful wonít get the chance to aid him in crushing anyone. Cue a rush of polls over the next few weeks whereby Borisí mates demonstrate that with him in charge the Tories win the next election by a country mile; anyone else and itís Corbyn in No10. Whether the anti-Boris stance will withstand that remains to be seen.
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Old 17th May 2019, 20:46
  #8039 (permalink)  
 
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"The question was put whether to leave the EU or not and the answer was to leave. "
I'm fairly certain that I know the answer, but I'll ask it just the same -
Why are Brexiteers so reluctant to complete that sort of statement? ... "by those who voted, and who account for 47.17% of the total entitled to vote and/or 27.6% of the population at large.
In another thread, I asked whether anyone could offer a definition of Democracy and its derivatives. The responses suggested that Humpty-Dumpty's viewpoint worked for most! Personally, I reckon on some sort of majority function, ideally linked to specificity of intention. Seems such a pity that in the Brexit case, markedly LESS than a majority are trying to impose their idiocy on the ACTUAL majority of the UK who are, obviously, quite happy to remain in the EU. Perhaps mathematics isn't a necessary accomplishment for Leavers?
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Old 17th May 2019, 20:52
  #8040 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cornish Jack View Post
"The question was put whether to leave the EU or not and the answer was to leave. "
I'm fairly certain that I know the answer, but I'll ask it just the same -
Why are Brexiteers so reluctant to complete that sort of statement? ... "by those who voted, and who account for 47.17% of the total entitled to vote and/or 27.6% of the population at large.
In another thread, I asked whether anyone could offer a definition of Democracy and its derivatives. The responses suggested that Humpty-Dumpty's viewpoint worked for most! Personally, I reckon on some sort of majority function, ideally linked to specificity of intention. Seems such a pity that in the Brexit case, markedly LESS than a majority are trying to impose their idiocy on the ACTUAL majority of the UK who are, obviously, quite happy to remain in the EU. Perhaps mathematics isn't a necessary accomplishment for Leavers?
As has been pointed out numerous times before, you cannot simply assume that those who chose not to exercise their right to participate in the 2016 referendum would have voted remain.
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