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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 16th May 2019, 06:53
  #7981 (permalink)  
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The opportunity to bury the bad news when she loses perhaps?......

Downing Street is committed to putting Brexit legislation to a vote in the week beginning June 3 — a gamble that is likely to lead to Mrs May’s resignation if she loses.

However, that week also coincides with the visit by Mr Trump on Monday, June 3, to Wednesday, June 5, and events marking the 75th anniversary of D-Day in Portsmouth on Wednesday and Normandy on Thursday. The Commons is not sitting on Friday. Government sources told The Times that they were considering holding the vote on June 5. Other Whitehall sources said that no decision had been taken on which day that week the vote would be held.........

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, a former aide in the Ministry of Defence and Brexiteer Tory MP, said: “I wanted Mrs May to vote on the Withdrawal Bill but it does seem odd to bring it back in the midst of an important but possibly difficult visit by the US president and to distract from the extraordinary commitment and sacrifice of so many veterans for the 75th anniversary.”
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:08
  #7982 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post

Anyway, polls get a bit of prominence on here so this will doubtless set the pulses racing .....for all the wrong reasons unless right wing extremism is deeply entrenched in your heart that is

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ithin-20-years
The poll is just peoples opinion with little or no facts to back them up, however you can see how the mix of rising uncompetitiveness, continued high youth unemployment, slow growth, mass immigration, tight monetary policy and an increasingly federalist EU agenda could all conspire to create the perfect storm. As is often the case the unfiltered views of the masses perhaps give a better glimpse into the future than the lopsided garbage that the establishment comes out with.
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:10
  #7983 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The opportunity to bury the bad news when she loses perhaps?......

Seriously, does anybody really care what May and her hapless Government propose to do next? That ship has sailed, let's get the Euros out of the way, see how much of a drubbing both main parties get and take it from there.
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:17
  #7984 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WilliumMate View Post
The manifesto would indeed be interesting. How to solve the conundrum of their present position regarding Brexit and their aspirations for re-nationalisation and state support. This, my dear Watson, is a three pipe problem.

My problem is that as an 'old school' Labour voter and leaver I can't vote for my party under it's current leadership or for it's Brexit stance and I suspect there are many like me. I hope that the upcoming EU elections proves to be a catastrophe for the two main parties and that it delivers the kick up the arse that they desperately need.
That is the problem for Labour. Lead by Tom Watson, Keir Starmer or Hillary Benn and with a clear policy on the EU and Brexit then they'd have some credibility. But at the moment, were I to be considering voting for them (which I'm not because of Corbyn) I wouldn't be comfortable voting for a party that appears to be riding two horses on the most important issue to face the UK since the outbreak of WW2.

If the EU elections are a catastrophe for the main parties, what would that achieve? With a proportional system a great deal, with FPTP actually very little because the system and geography and demographic of our constituency boundaries is carefully carved up to give an inbuilt advantage to the establishment (Lab and Tory) and make the mountain that a new or third party has to climb that much higher. So whatever, it will be largely business as usual come a general election. Is that too cynical? Perhaps.
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:26
  #7985 (permalink)  
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ARNott

It's stalemate I'm afraid, and with the Commons overwhelmingly against a no deal Brexit, the only alternatives are remain or a new referendum. There is of course a third option, a general election, but in the current febrile political atmosphere Labour need to be very cautious about forcing that idea through. The law of unintended consequences and all that.
Stalemate, true. NDB, true. Remain? Is there even a likelihood that they could agree on that.
New referendum? Pointless, they have a mandate but they then can't agree on plan. Even if they got a remain majority would that change the price of fish?

That leaves you with the inescapable conclusion of the need for an election and the hope that 312 of the new cohort from any party agree on one course of action.

In present polls Labour would seem to be the majority party but Brexit, assuming they get the seats, and Conservatives would be about equal. An election would be interesting by no guarantee of breaking the stalemate.

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 16th May 2019 at 13:07.
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:42
  #7986 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
ARNott



Stalemate, true. NDB, true. Remain? Is there even a likelihood that they could agree on that.
New referendum? Pointless, they have a mandate but they then can't agree on plan. Even if they got a remain majority would that change the price of fish?

That leaves you with the inescapable conclusion of the need for a referendum and the hope that 312 of the new cohort from any party agree on one course of action.

In present polls Labour would seem to be the majority party but Brexit, assuming they get the seats, and Conservatives would be about equal. An election would be interesting by no guarantee of breaking the stalemate.
Of course the potential here is for some sort of crazy left wing coalition, maybe comprising LAB / Green / Nats, with LAB being the majority party. A bit like the CON/LD Government, but only much, much worse you'd imagine. What would JC do with Brexit then? Whatever he proposed would he be able to steer it through Parliament? Not sure, but regrettably I do see a(nother) PeoplesVote coming our way!
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:42
  #7987 (permalink)  
 
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New referendum? Pointless, they have a mandate but they then can't agree on plan. Even if they got a remain majority would that change the price of fish?

That leaves you with the inescapable conclusion of the need for a referendum and the hope that 312 of the new cohort from any party agree on one course of action.
I think you meant the need for an election rather than referendum.

So far as a new referendum is concerned I think you're right, it would achieve nothing unless it's supremacy over parliamentary opinion were enshrined in law, which in effect goes against our unwritten constitution. Mind you, if Brexit have proved anything it is that our system as it stands doesn't work, isn't democratic and we need to take a long hard look at how we run the UK once this whole Brexit saga is done for, one way or the other. If that means a constitutional review, and the installation of a new written constitution so that we and governments all know exactly where we stand, so be it. Many other nations appear to work quite well with a written constitution.
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:43
  #7988 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting comments about a future GE on here, what on earth would brexit stand on other than leave Eu-leave it to who since they can never run anything as they have no people other than Herr Farage , so they are a one time one issue party .

Why would they be allied to the Tories since the whole problem, other than the issue itself , is that both parties are split and perhaps Brexit Party could think of playing Kingmaker bt i think alot in the labour party would not deal with Farage, probably more conservatives but by no means all . And in any event people form both aprties shoot themselves in the foot daily by putting party before country. TM should as PLM explore solutions with labour because its not a straight party issue. But the hang em flog em ttories demand that she stops doing that because of unity in the party comes first.

In the Labour camp they are putting the opportunity to attack a weakened split Tory party to their gain , ahead of doing the right thing for the country. And the Tories hypocritical s usual want to change their mind on their leadership at will but wont allow the public to change or endorse their vote of three years ago- thats the most absurd thing in politics ever as its on average about the life of a parliament .

Of course a good way of summing up Tory policy is

Ultra-wealthy hedge fund tycoons have put a staggering £2.9million into the Conservative Party’s pockets since the start of the 2017.

You and I both know our democracy is broken. But what does that mean for people’s everyday lives?

It means a decade of government cuts has left millions in poverty, whilst the richest 1% and corporations have increased their wealth. When our democracy is bank-rolled by hedge funds and other tycoons, we shouldn’t be surprised that the government is only serving the few.

Thats the Rees-Mogg /Boris Old Etonian view of the will of the British people in a nutshell.

The wealthiest have been using their money to distort democracy so that it works in their interests, and their interests alone.

Ona lighter note mention of that favourite school of the rich and corrupt reminded me of a amusing and very loud conversation ona trian lastweek mixing Love Island and brexit politics between two 20 something women one of whom who said she didnt like the Tories as they are only interested in posh people and Old Estonians -probably a far more honourable bunch






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Old 16th May 2019, 08:55
  #7989 (permalink)  
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Amusing to see someone thinking less than £3M over two years is a “staggering” amount.

Fore example in the 4th quarter of 2018 alone the Conservative party received donations of £7.5M, of which £1.5M came from a producer in that hotbed industry of Labour lovviedom - the theatre.

https://www.electoralcommission.org....ationsaccepted

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_G...ater_producer)
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Old 16th May 2019, 09:28
  #7990 (permalink)  
 
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It would appear that the hopefuls to replace Mrs May are vying to out Brexit one another. The latest applicant Ms.Truss, who has even gone to the trouble of adopting the Douglas Carswell Brexit skewed mouth was holding forth on Newsnight about how she would NoDeal.

Whilst I disagreed with SallyAnn's contention that Corbyn might sweep to power in a GE I must say that this would be his ideal opportunity. Polls suggest that Leave now stands around 40% with rather less than this supporting NoDeal. In the case of a GE. Corbyn led Brexit party might split this vote quite evenly allowing a 30% vote for Labour to mop up scores of seats.

​​​​​​​no doubt JB would then resound to calls for military intervention...is this what Brexit has brought us to?
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Old 16th May 2019, 09:36
  #7991 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
It would appear that the hopefuls to replace Mrs May are vying to out Brexit one another. The latest applicant Ms.Truss, who has even gone to the trouble of adopting the Douglas Carswell Brexit skewed mouth was holding forth on Newsnight about how she would NoDeal.

Whilst I disagreed with SallyAnn's contention that Corbyn might sweep to power in a GE I must say that this would be his ideal opportunity. Polls suggest that Leave now stands around 40% with rather less than this supporting NoDeal. In the case of a GE. Corbyn led Brexit party might split this vote quite evenly allowing a 30% vote for Labour to mop up scores of seats.

no doubt JB would then resound to calls for military intervention...is this what Brexit has brought us to?
Does that 40% leave support suggest that pretty well all of them, former Labour and Tory supporters, will swing behind the Farage vanity project in next week's EU elections? How would those voters then split if a GE were held within 6 months, and from the other side how would the remain vote split between the traditional parties and the likes of Change and the Greens (putting the LibDems into the "traditional" corner).

As an afterthought, does the aforementioned 40% leave support imply that 60% now support remain? If it does what do Labour think they are doing as the opposition, supporting the minority side?

Rhetorical questions I know, since there isn't a GE planned.
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Old 16th May 2019, 11:12
  #7992 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
The poll is just peoples opinion with little or no facts to back them up, however you can see how the mix of rising uncompetitiveness, continued high youth unemployment, slow growth, mass immigration, tight monetary policy and an increasingly federalist EU agenda could all conspire to create the perfect storm. As is often the case the unfiltered views of the masses perhaps give a better glimpse into the future than the lopsided garbage that the establishment comes out with.
That's quite neat really. First comes the disclaimer about "little or no facts to back them up "......eerily reminiscent of certain rags headlines you might say, before you kindly supply what you consider the be the facts.

But, as you said, you will be voting for the Brexit / Farage party......hence, presumably, the encapsulation of said party in your post.
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Old 16th May 2019, 13:13
  #7993 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hyperdark View Post
No that would be a rather stupid appraisal of the situation..
The problem is that remainers want to have a second referendum that they insist should be acted upon and taken as a proper decision when the first one has not yet been acted upon and should just be thrown away.
A very selfish, arrogant attitude I must say and one that seems prevalent in vocal remainers

The constant dissinformation that states we didnt know what we voted for is bunk, we voted to leave, all this soft/hard rubbish came after the vote
However, I believe that most people who voted to leave understood that, overall, it would be better for the UK to leave, than to remain. I think it is fairly well understood now, that the reality is that leaving will be the end of the UK, and will make England much worse off.

The winner of the Brexit vote, and a BIG winner if Brexit actually occurs? PUTIN.
The big loser if Brexit actually occurs, the common English resident.
Scotland and Ireland residents will probably be better off, as they leave the UK to stay in the EU as independent countries.
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Old 16th May 2019, 13:19
  #7994 (permalink)  
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Salvation for the United Kingdom, well, the only bit of it that matters, which is England, is up and running. Boris has joined the fray, hat in the ring, vote Boris, he's good enough!
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Old 16th May 2019, 13:24
  #7995 (permalink)  
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PaxB, remember, a Labour majority over any other party does not automatically mean they will form a Government. The Tories have to concede first. Farage could indeed become king maker. On at least one poll only alliances with strange bed fellows would permit Labour or Tory, or indeed Brexit, to form a Government.

As for having MPs capable of Governing, in the two party system the incoming party usually retained its experienced MPs at the expense of the other party. If a new party gained a significant number of seats from the traditional main parties there is no guarantee that the middle ranks, and indeed some big guns, would retain their seats.

Election night is a bit like the Grand National. You look to see which big gun fell at finish.
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Old 16th May 2019, 13:42
  #7996 (permalink)  
 
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Boris to run for PM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48299424
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Old 16th May 2019, 14:02
  #7997 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Boris to run for PM
Guess he is hoping this comes to nothing...

https://metro.co.uk/2019/05/14/case-...n-day-9540055/
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Old 16th May 2019, 14:16
  #7998 (permalink)  
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Source confirms implication of agreement btw Brady + May - if 2nd reading passes, PM stays on to fight next stages thro Commons, in hope that we leave EU before recess, if it fails, which at this stage is a LOT more likely, she's gone, contest over summer, new PM at Tory conference*.

*29th September

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Old 16th May 2019, 14:20
  #7999 (permalink)  
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European Parliament voting intention (Wales):

BREX: 33% (+33)
LAB: 18% (-10)
PC: 16% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (+6)
GRN: 8% (+3)
CON: 7% (-10)
CHUK: 4% (+4)

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 2014 result.
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Old 16th May 2019, 14:22
  #8000 (permalink)  
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Theresa's departure is dependent on her EU proposal being accepted - is it worth it?
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