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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 30th Nov 2018, 19:05
  #781 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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A poll sample of 1013 is risible.
I suggest you check out statistical analysis and the average size of polls. A poll that is accurate to within +/- 2% as it states. And Deltapoll is a respected polling organisation with a good record.
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Old 30th Nov 2018, 19:36
  #782 (permalink)  
 
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That depends entirely where and how the sample were selected .
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Old 30th Nov 2018, 23:29
  #783 (permalink)  
 
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What I don't get is why, if they are so sure that things have not changed, the Leavers don't want another poll. This would be an excellent way to shut up the opposition to Brexit for once and all. Come on, let's be havin' you!
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 00:46
  #784 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
What I don't get is why, if they are so sure that things have not changed, the Leavers don't want another poll. This would be an excellent way to shut up the opposition to Brexit for once and all.
Why do you say that?. Those asking for a second referendum dont respect the result of the first peoples vote so why would they respect the result of another if it didnt go their way?. Also another referendum wouldnt solve any of the other issues - if Leave won again we would still be having the same problems over the NI border, the ability to make trade deals etc etc - we would just have wasted another 3 - 6 months picking fluff out of our navels and arguing over exactly the same issues as we did in 2016.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 01:26
  #785 (permalink)  
 
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Leaving the EU is a strategic move.
The difficulties which will follow are ''tactical' in nature, although clearly there will be a lot of them.
Strategically, the UK should be better off after BrExit, or at least, that's the view of those who voted leave.

Strategy is more important than tactics, and good tactics can never overcome bad strategy.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 06:27
  #786 (permalink)  
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 06:42
  #787 (permalink)  
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The Times:

One of Jeremy Corbyn’s senior frontbenchers was accused last night of misleading the public over her knowledge of her son’s conviction for drug offences.

Kate Osamor, 50, the shadow international development secretary, has continued to employ her son in her parliamentary office despite his guilty pleas in September.

The Labour Party had previously claimed that she knew nothing about her son’s case until after he was given a community sentence on October 19. It can be disclosed that she was not only aware of the case but had written to the trial judge asking for leniency for Ishmael Osamor, 29, and stressing his remorse. He was caught with drugs worth £2,500 at the Bestival music festival in Dorset last year.

At her home last night Ms Osamor told a reporter for The Times, who asked for her response to the story, that she “should have come down here with a bat and smashed your face in”. She told him to “f*** off”, threw a bucket of water at him and called police after accusing him of stalking her.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 08:18
  #788 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Most of the swing was accounted for by those like me, non voters in the Referendum who now favour Remain
You didn't vote. Polling theory applies as much to non-voters. I once ran a vote with a total number of possible votes was in the region of 100, I think the total cast was about 70. The result was obvious after about 5-6 votes. All that subsequent votes did was increase the two sides and simply refined the margin.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 09:11
  #789 (permalink)  
 
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The survey, of 20,086 people found that non voters had disproportionately moved towards Remain. In addition to this the biggest effect was that older voters had died, as would be expected. These were replaced by new voter, a stronger Remain cohort.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 09:31
  #790 (permalink)  
 
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No, I refuse to believe that's correct..when the possibility of the UK being dumped out of Galilieo was first discussed, many months back, either here or on the Military Forum, some of our usual and vocal experts on this sort of thing said the UK would simply retaliate and make the European project unworkable by denying the building of some of the required ground stations on UK territories. I can't for one minute believe the EU really have been able to find places for such facilities elsewhere on the globe, and are going to go ahead anyway.

Remember, they need us more than we need them...
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 09:44
  #791 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I suggest you check out statistical analysis and the average size of polls. A poll that is accurate to within +/- 2% as it states. And Deltapoll is a respected polling organisation with a good record.
Deltapoll is a comparative newcomer, so new that their website is still a work in progress!

That doesn't mean their methodology is inherently dodgy, but they don't have a track record in political polling such as the likes of Comres, Ipsos Mori, YouGov or TNS. But as usual the more significant factor is who commissioned the poll, what the questions were, and how they were asked.

Those caveats apply to all polling / surveys.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 10:39
  #792 (permalink)  
 
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On the subject of polling there is an interesting article on UK Polling Report about how the Daily Mail have spun what is essentially a Survation poll showing strong public opinion in favour of a second referendum into one that shows inexorable public support for Mrs May's deal. Lies, damn lies and Daily Mail opinion columns.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 11:26
  #793 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
No, I refuse to believe that's correct..when the possibility of the UK being dumped out of Galilieo was first discussed, many months back, either here or on the Military Forum, some of our usual and vocal experts on this sort of thing said the UK would simply retaliate and make the European project unworkable by denying the building of some of the required ground stations on UK territories. I can't for one minute believe the EU really have been able to find places for such facilities elsewhere on the globe, and are going to go ahead anyway.

Remember, they need us more than we need them...
Has the government thought of a name for its new GNSS ?
It has to commemorate something brave and British that will upset those rotten foreigners. How about Waterloo?
Or perhaps Dunkirk would be more appropriate.

Seriously, I would like to know how the funding for this unnecessary project will sit in the queue for that £350m.
Will it be before or after the NHS, the regional development funds, the farm subsidies, the new customs controls?
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 11:40
  #794 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Seriously, I would like to know how the funding for this unnecessary project will sit in the queue for that £350m.
Will it be before or after the NHS, the regional development funds, the farm subsidies, the new customs controls?
May could do a deal with Corbyn, and borrow some of his unicorns to take the British satellites into space.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 12:12
  #795 (permalink)  
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They asked us to stay in Galileo, with access to the military signal, but lying and with no decision making role. They thought they had us over a barrel - yesterday TM said no.

Whether that hat is because she has advice a replacement is well within our capabilities, or the pre-production quantum compass/INAS is so far advanced that a m8,Italy version can be produced in the required timeframe I know not. But the government felt secure enough to refuse the offer.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 12:33
  #796 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
They asked us to stay in Galileo, with access to the military signal, but lying and with no decision making role. They thought they had us over a barrel - yesterday TM said no.

Whether that hat is because she has advice a replacement is well within our capabilities, or the pre-production quantum compass/INAS is so far advanced that a m8,Italy version can be produced in the required timeframe I know not. But the government felt secure enough to refuse the offer.
What 'barrel' were we over?

As a third party outside the EU we were never going to be allowed any control of the system, whether physical or political. The secondary control station is already being removed from the UK to Spain.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 13:10
  #797 (permalink)  
 
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Exactly Sallyann...I believe what the EU have done might come under popular headings such as “ taking back or maintaining control” and community “sovereignty”.

No point in grumbling about barrels when you’ve decidedto put yourself outside the club.



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Old 1st Dec 2018, 13:17
  #798 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
A poll sample of 1013 is risible. A Channel4 survey of 20,000 found a 54/46 split in favour of Remain. Most of the swing was accounted for by those like me, non voters in the Referendum who now favour Remain
So you are another one who didn't vote yet don't like the result. Maybe you thought that the polls, showing a remain win were accurate?

And now people like you believe these opinion polls again, at least some of them, showing remain would win. These polls mean nothing. They are not an accurate indication of the country as a whole. The only one that mattered was in June 16.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 13:43
  #799 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Seriously, I would like to know how the funding for this unnecessary project will sit in the queue for that £350m.
Will it be before or after the NHS, the regional development funds, the farm subsidies, the new customs controls?
Surely it will come from the money we are already pumping into the Gallileo system?. All the UK is proposing is to copy the existing design so the expensive design and development bit is done, manufacturing a few more sets of the hardware at the factory in Surrey (which is already up and running) and launching them is going to be fairly cheap compared with creating a while new system from scratch.
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Old 1st Dec 2018, 15:19
  #800 (permalink)  
 
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So what happens if this "people's vote" happens and produces the same result?
Or, what if it turns out in favour of Remain and the EU says "bugger off, you quit, now stay quit"?
And as for the People's Vote; didn't we have one in 2017, preceded by another in 2015, 2010, 2005, 2001 and so on?
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