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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 12th May 2019, 07:37
  #7861 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
Point of rebuttal?
Mr B Duck as referred to was not that Mr B Duck but rather the stinky kind so beloved of female first generation ersatz colonials who confuse China with India and then wonder why they die of dysentery on account of earring unwashed raw lettuce in the latter rather than steamed pak choi in the former.
Mrs Hyde, although cynical, sardonic, occasionally humorous and from time to time well enough informed, is not satirist. She is, to paraphrase and extend slightly the words of Mr Justice Tugendhat, a tease and an employer of irony.
Thank you.

You will be pleased to learn your imminent exile to any of the following has now been rescinded, however, your reference to Ms Hyde, will remain on file....:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/histo...exile-1947938/

Meanwhile, on a far more serious note, the repugnant resurgence continues......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...edia-far-right
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Old 12th May 2019, 07:53
  #7862 (permalink)  
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What comes next?

I saw one UK election poll putting Labour comfortably ahead of Conservative but well short of any form of majority. A coalition of Con+Brexity would comfortably be ahead of Labour. If Labour could form a coalition with the Nat/Green/Yellow then they could govern.

Found it: latest in ST would give Lab/LD a majority over Con and Con/Brex but if CHG+DUP went against Lab/SD you would have stalemate.

I am suspicious that SNP had less than 4%.

Who would ally with whom?

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 12th May 2019 at 08:03.
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Old 12th May 2019, 08:14
  #7863 (permalink)  
 
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I saw one UK election poll putting Labour comfortably ahead of Conservative but well short of any form of majority. A coalition of Con+Brexity would comfortably be ahead of Labour. If Labour could form a coalition with the Nat/Green/Yellow then they could govern.
Interesting thoughts but from what I've seen and read elsewhere there's a lot of concern about the divergence of results across some of the major polls ATM......
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Old 12th May 2019, 08:15
  #7864 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
See Corbyns raiding the magic money tree again to give £10 minimum wages to the young (voters).
There are so many potential unintended consequences here. How many voters in the bracket, therefore the cost?

16/17 year olds won't have a say but maybe he is hoping young parents will support him as it will reduce their help for the sprigs.

What 16 year old will stay in education with a wage of £300/week dangled in front of them? Contrast 5 years being paid £75k with a university grad with £40k debt?

All predicted on actually having a job serving coffee.

Or is it a master plan to lure the teens onto the land to replace EU crop pickers?
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Old 12th May 2019, 08:38
  #7865 (permalink)  
 
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I think that with the SNP on 4% you are failing to take account of the relatively small numbers of Scottish voters. They maybe comprise 10% of which the SNP take (say) 40% therefore giving them 4% of the total.

Potential alliances are limited. LD/ Change/Green might be one giving say 30%. Tory/Brexit I would say not possible and, given the current leadership I would say a Labour/ Anyone too. A GE with LD/Change/Green, Brexit, Labour and Tory might be interesting. That could go any way.
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Old 12th May 2019, 08:52
  #7866 (permalink)  
 
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There is a very slight positive side to a flat rate minimum wage. As the current lower minimum wage for youngsters is no longer an incentive for businesses to avoid hiring ‘older’ employees. Therefore it might increase the chances of the ‘older’ person to find employment again as financially there is no difference but they have more experience.

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Old 12th May 2019, 09:03
  #7867 (permalink)  
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CEJM, it would also remove the revolving door incentive to bring in young workers and release them when the pay increases. You train them up and then you keep them if they are good. As I said, many unintended consequences.
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Old 12th May 2019, 09:11
  #7868 (permalink)  
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EM, thank you. I think the political colour of the Brexit party (former UKIP) is distinctly muddy.

In a Tory heartland the swing to UKIP at the previous council elections was from both blue and red.

Farage is quite clear, UK alone making its own economic decisions. If he sees Labour ploughing a different furrow he would have to align against them.

How do we read a 13 point lead over Labour and 23 points over Conservative?
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Old 12th May 2019, 09:34
  #7869 (permalink)  
 
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PN, very true. Hadn’t thought about that.
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Old 12th May 2019, 09:41
  #7870 (permalink)  
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Scarily good broadcast, scarier still is that it is a Conservative MP retweeting it....

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Old 12th May 2019, 10:04
  #7871 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Why would anyone feel the need to vote for Tories or Labour?

#brexiters are best served by voting Brexit, remainers are best served by voting LibDem.
I am really, genuinely sorry for you GTW. I'm sure you will be working flat out, pounding the streets, knocking on doors and handing out leaflets.

But you must know that it is all in vain, as the remain vote will be split five ways. And we'll be leaving the EU anyway, with or without a deal. This election makes no difference to that.
Next comes the Corbyn government.

In other news, a relative and his family are selling up. He's an orthopaedic surgeon, and she's a nurse. They have jobs waiting in a hospital in Canberra, and have just got their immigration papers.
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Old 12th May 2019, 10:22
  #7872 (permalink)  
 
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There needs to be a huge caveat over current polling. The EU elections are essentially "one issue" politics and it remains to be seen whether this can be mobilised to win a GE. The more likely outcome is that Brexit votes will detract disproportionately from The Tories. Whether this lets in Corbyn is another matter. Politics is in a unique state of flux and more or less any scenario could occur. FPTP is capable of throwing up all manner of outcomes once parties fall below 30%. It depends on how that share of the vote is spread with different parties losing or gaining on a random basis.

​​​​​​​fir the first time ever it has become completely impossible to predict an outcome with any degree of certainty. The only thing that we can safely say is that there are interesting times ahead.
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Old 12th May 2019, 11:40
  #7873 (permalink)  
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Can you envisage a Tory vote within spitting distance of Labour with Brexit Party offering to coalesce with one of them? The cost being a senior Government position for NF (assuming he is elected), say PM.
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Old 12th May 2019, 12:10
  #7874 (permalink)  
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Strangely enough, I have recently spent a week at the Canberra hospital. I can tell you that your relatives are going to absolutely love working there. The general wards are short of staff but ICU is magnificent. Staff are pragmatic and helpful, you will get information from them and the waiting time for a nurse after call bell may be measured in minutes rather than by the quarter hour. One of the problems of the Canberra of course is that lots of the staff want to move to the Royal Alfred in Sydney and it is easy enough to see why, even apart from a hospital comparison.. Canberra is a fine city but it is a rambling scattered place, a little like DC, with little soul and expensive to boot.
IMAUHO they've made a very wise choice, both to leave the UK and to go to Australia. I am absolutely certain that they won't regret it.

Last edited by cavortingcheetah; 12th May 2019 at 12:22.
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Old 12th May 2019, 12:42
  #7875 (permalink)  
 
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They spent a month there last year with their kids and were all very impressed, can't wait to get moving.
Another small hole in the NHS.
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Old 12th May 2019, 13:59
  #7876 (permalink)  
 
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Brexit is coming.

The outcome will be no less dramatic or traumatic than the scenes depicted in Game of Thrones. May the 23rd will be the first triumph for the Brexiteers in a while. Then there begins the battle of attrition until no deal Brexit becomes inevitable and the reality it should have been three years ago. Nigel Farage is correct in saying that Brexit has to be delivered. He is in danger of falling into the same trap as Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn if he thinks that any acceptable deal with the EU is on offer, or will ever be offered. Leave first, then we talk.
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Old 12th May 2019, 15:03
  #7877 (permalink)  
 
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I've followed politics for more than fifty years and I cannot recall a time that seemed less conducive to a coalition. The anti Brexit parties are the most likely, but they won't get many seats. The LD's could make progress and get back to their 2010 numbers at best but in view of that experience I don't see them doing a deal again. Labour hold the cards to an extent and I think that taking an anti Brexit stance is their best bet. The problem is Corbyn is as Brexit as JRM. He sees a Labour government unfettered by what he sees as European Tories to be able to enact his GDR2.0
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Old 12th May 2019, 15:20
  #7878 (permalink)  
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EM, remember the sitting Government remains in power until it concedes. I think Ted Heath was in that position and DC certainly was. Agree about LD but they were an established party that compromised its beliefs to take power. They could have sides with Labour but instead prostituted itself with the Conservatives.

Brexit, OTOH, has no firm philosophical position to compromise. Acting as king maker could give them just the platform they need to demonstrate ability to Govern as a majority party. Would their leader accept a non-job of deputy leader?
​​
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Old 12th May 2019, 16:20
  #7879 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with Farage is he is just a rabble rouser and a racist if his ads are anythign to go by. He has no plan , no ability and no accountability as he is to all intents and purposes German if it suits him , German wife German kids, and if it all goes pear shape which it will just because of the ineptness of whoever is left in charge he can just go elsewhere and of course stay in the Eu, along with Rees Moggs money . How he ever got anyones attention for more than five minutes god knows
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Old 12th May 2019, 16:38
  #7880 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post
The problem with Farage is he is just a rabble rouser and a racist if his ads are anythign to go by. s
Simple really, you said it. The rabble is roused. What he says appeals to many. He does not behave as one of the chosen ones in Whitehall. Marr's brief today was a hatchet job with carefully chosen clips to discredit Farage but the clips also contained weaseling but Marr claimed black and white.

I saw him the other night deflecting a GE policy question. His response was, I think, spot on "let's get the EU over"

Today he said Brexit would not publish a manifesto as manifestos were lies.

As a rabble rouser he is just more capable then the others at rousing rabble.
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