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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 11th May 2019, 22:10
  #7861 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
That well known Conservative rag - The Grauniad....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-combined-poll

Brexit party may get more EU election votes than Tories and Labour combined – poll

Nigel Farage’s Brexit party is on course to secure more support at the European elections than the Tories and Labour combined, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

In the most striking sign to date of surging support for Farage, the poll suggests more than a third of voters will back him on 23 May. It puts his party on 34% of the vote, with less than a fortnight before the election takes place. The poll suggests support for the Conservatives has collapsed amid the Brexit uncertainty, with Theresa May’s party on just 11%. Labour is a distant second, on 21%.

Just a fortnight ago, the Brexit party was neck-and-neck with Labour on 28%. Now it has a 13-point lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s party.The Conservatives are now only narrowly ahead of the Brexit party when voters are asked who they would vote for at a general election. The Tories are on 22% support, down 4% on a fortnight ago, with the Brexit party on 21% backing. Labour leads on 28%, but is down five points on the last poll........

always difficult to know what to read into opinion polls - they are frequently wrong. However, I think a few things are becoming clear:
  • May is a liability to the Tories. She's failed to deliver Brexit even after, or maybe because of, backtracking on pretty much every principle she stood for. At every decision point she seems to take the wrong option. Almost a uniquely hapless PM in so many ways. She's already pre-announced her departure so she's a lame duck and she needs to go quickly as we'll all just tread water whilst she's at the helm
  • Corbyn has a fanatical hard core fanbase, but the glass ceiling is limiting him. Too many people simply dont trust him and/or dont like what he stands for. I've always said he'll never get Labour back in power and I'll continue to stick to that belief
  • The LDs / Greens / Nats all have their USPs, but have limited appeal to the majority of the electorate so are unlikely to make huge inroads. I am quite surprised the LDs havent cornered the market in Remain voters and used that as a springboard to bigger things, but again I think ineffectual leadership and too small a pool of talent is hindering them. They sank so low it's to big a leap back for them, at the moment anyway.
  • So that leaves CHGUK-TIG and the Brexit Party.
    • CHGUK-TIG have got off to an inauspicious start, it very much seems a collective of the disenchanted, and there's no real big hitters - Chuka, Anna and Heidi are about the best they've got and that's not really enough for them to make an impact. Even the name is unfortunate when as Farage pointed out they are actually standing on a platform for Continuity as opposed to Change!
    • The Brexit Party is capitalising on the 17.4M. They are the only party right now that clearly stands for Leave, and that's got to be a massive factor in their upswing. They also had an effective and clear lauch strategy with Farage, like him or loath him, being a household name frontman. He also has something sadly lacking in pretty much every other party leader - charisma. It isnt to everyone's taste, but in an era of wooden, dull, indecisive and ineffective party leaders he kind of stands out. I expect the Brexit party will do well at the Euros, but can he then build on that to really challenge at the next (likely very soon) GE? I'm not so sure, he'll need to reign in some of his more shouty performances and try and reach out to a wider audience. Or maybe he wont, maybe he'll just try and ape The Donald and just stoop ever lower in appealing to his core?
Whatever, I firmly believe the old two party state is going to get shaken up, and not before time if I'm honest. The issue is that nobody knows what comes next...
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Old 11th May 2019, 22:12
  #7862 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Brexit party may get more EU election votes than Tories and Labour combined – poll
Why would anyone feel the need to vote for Tories or Labour?

#brexiters are best served by voting Brexit, remainers are best served by voting LibDem.
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Old 11th May 2019, 22:48
  #7863 (permalink)  
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In 2018 Nic Clegg was hired as a lobbyist and public relations officer in his role as Vice-President, Global Affairs and Communications at Facebook thereby cementing his reputation as a hypocrite of more than monumental proportions. Thus has it always seemed to be with the LibDems, from Lloyd George down and through to Jeremy Thorpe, a political party that gives new complexities of meaning to political prostitution; bad enough when confined to the green benches but when intermingled with the seedier stories of the personal lives of LibDem past leaders one really does have to pass by the yellowed and crapulous bird by walking on the other side of the road.
As of that were not suitably atrocious, a quick squint through the LibDem manifesto will reveal its similarity to that of the Labour Party, although that manifesto in turn differs slightly from that of the Marxist Party, which flies the present banner under which Labour presents itself as the successor to the policies of Trotsky, Stalin and the consequent exterminations of the early twentieth century.
In the context of an historical time line, one can be certain that a vote for the LibDems these days will translate, over the reality of time and political alliance, to a vote for the Marxist party. That will inevitably lead to as hard a Brexit as is possible while presenting, by the sleight of hand of remaining in a customs union, the impression that Britain remains within the European jurisdiction. For it is only outside that jurisdiction of legal and social contracts that the Marxists can implement the changes they have in store for Britain and in this, they will find the LibDems to be the most useful of canting allies.
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Old 12th May 2019, 02:11
  #7864 (permalink)  
 
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See Corbyns raiding the magic money tree again to give £10 minimum wages to the young (voters).
In an article I read from a hairdresser with several salons he / she said as young trainees they are not worth that until they get experience and he / she probably would have to halve the staff numbers to afford pay the £10, still plenty of room on the dole for them in Corbyn's land of milk and money.
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Old 12th May 2019, 06:19
  #7865 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
See Corbyns raiding the magic money tree again...
I'd be surprised if there's anything left on that tree given the amount that has been taken off it by TM to give to the DUP...
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Old 12th May 2019, 06:37
  #7866 (permalink)  
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Undoubtedly many remainers will abstain from a pointless exercise as will some leavers; I know one. However listening to a former clerk to the HoC, he says many remainers will also vote Brexit as we just want to close the show and move on to the next Act.

I appreciate GTW sees this as a perfect opportunity to advance the Yellow banner whereas others, not wishing to support the Beer Party or lend a pointless vote to red or blue will abstain.

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Old 12th May 2019, 06:37
  #7867 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
Point of rebuttal?
Mr B Duck as referred to was not that Mr B Duck but rather the stinky kind so beloved of female first generation ersatz colonials who confuse China with India and then wonder why they die of dysentery on account of earring unwashed raw lettuce in the latter rather than steamed pak choi in the former.
Mrs Hyde, although cynical, sardonic, occasionally humorous and from time to time well enough informed, is not satirist. She is, to paraphrase and extend slightly the words of Mr Justice Tugendhat, a tease and an employer of irony.
Thank you.

You will be pleased to learn your imminent exile to any of the following has now been rescinded, however, your reference to Ms Hyde, will remain on file....:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/histo...exile-1947938/

Meanwhile, on a far more serious note, the repugnant resurgence continues......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...edia-far-right
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Old 12th May 2019, 06:53
  #7868 (permalink)  
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What comes next?

I saw one UK election poll putting Labour comfortably ahead of Conservative but well short of any form of majority. A coalition of Con+Brexity would comfortably be ahead of Labour. If Labour could form a coalition with the Nat/Green/Yellow then they could govern.

Found it: latest in ST would give Lab/LD a majority over Con and Con/Brex but if CHG+DUP went against Lab/SD you would have stalemate.

I am suspicious that SNP had less than 4%.

Who would ally with whom?

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 12th May 2019 at 07:03.
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Old 12th May 2019, 07:14
  #7869 (permalink)  
 
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I saw one UK election poll putting Labour comfortably ahead of Conservative but well short of any form of majority. A coalition of Con+Brexity would comfortably be ahead of Labour. If Labour could form a coalition with the Nat/Green/Yellow then they could govern.
Interesting thoughts but from what I've seen and read elsewhere there's a lot of concern about the divergence of results across some of the major polls ATM......
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Old 12th May 2019, 07:15
  #7870 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
See Corbyns raiding the magic money tree again to give £10 minimum wages to the young (voters).
There are so many potential unintended consequences here. How many voters in the bracket, therefore the cost?

16/17 year olds won't have a say but maybe he is hoping young parents will support him as it will reduce their help for the sprigs.

What 16 year old will stay in education with a wage of £300/week dangled in front of them? Contrast 5 years being paid £75k with a university grad with £40k debt?

All predicted on actually having a job serving coffee.

Or is it a master plan to lure the teens onto the land to replace EU crop pickers?
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Old 12th May 2019, 07:38
  #7871 (permalink)  
 
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I think that with the SNP on 4% you are failing to take account of the relatively small numbers of Scottish voters. They maybe comprise 10% of which the SNP take (say) 40% therefore giving them 4% of the total.

Potential alliances are limited. LD/ Change/Green might be one giving say 30%. Tory/Brexit I would say not possible and, given the current leadership I would say a Labour/ Anyone too. A GE with LD/Change/Green, Brexit, Labour and Tory might be interesting. That could go any way.
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Old 12th May 2019, 07:52
  #7872 (permalink)  
 
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There is a very slight positive side to a flat rate minimum wage. As the current lower minimum wage for youngsters is no longer an incentive for businesses to avoid hiring ‘older’ employees. Therefore it might increase the chances of the ‘older’ person to find employment again as financially there is no difference but they have more experience.

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Old 12th May 2019, 08:03
  #7873 (permalink)  
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CEJM, it would also remove the revolving door incentive to bring in young workers and release them when the pay increases. You train them up and then you keep them if they are good. As I said, many unintended consequences.
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Old 12th May 2019, 08:11
  #7874 (permalink)  
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EM, thank you. I think the political colour of the Brexit party (former UKIP) is distinctly muddy.

In a Tory heartland the swing to UKIP at the previous council elections was from both blue and red.

Farage is quite clear, UK alone making its own economic decisions. If he sees Labour ploughing a different furrow he would have to align against them.

How do we read a 13 point lead over Labour and 23 points over Conservative?
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Old 12th May 2019, 08:34
  #7875 (permalink)  
 
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PN, very true. Hadn’t thought about that.
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Old 12th May 2019, 08:41
  #7876 (permalink)  
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Scarily good broadcast, scarier still is that it is a Conservative MP retweeting it....

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Old 12th May 2019, 09:04
  #7877 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Why would anyone feel the need to vote for Tories or Labour?

#brexiters are best served by voting Brexit, remainers are best served by voting LibDem.
I am really, genuinely sorry for you GTW. I'm sure you will be working flat out, pounding the streets, knocking on doors and handing out leaflets.

But you must know that it is all in vain, as the remain vote will be split five ways. And we'll be leaving the EU anyway, with or without a deal. This election makes no difference to that.
Next comes the Corbyn government.

In other news, a relative and his family are selling up. He's an orthopaedic surgeon, and she's a nurse. They have jobs waiting in a hospital in Canberra, and have just got their immigration papers.
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Old 12th May 2019, 09:22
  #7878 (permalink)  
 
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There needs to be a huge caveat over current polling. The EU elections are essentially "one issue" politics and it remains to be seen whether this can be mobilised to win a GE. The more likely outcome is that Brexit votes will detract disproportionately from The Tories. Whether this lets in Corbyn is another matter. Politics is in a unique state of flux and more or less any scenario could occur. FPTP is capable of throwing up all manner of outcomes once parties fall below 30%. It depends on how that share of the vote is spread with different parties losing or gaining on a random basis.

​​​​​​​fir the first time ever it has become completely impossible to predict an outcome with any degree of certainty. The only thing that we can safely say is that there are interesting times ahead.
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Old 12th May 2019, 10:40
  #7879 (permalink)  
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Can you envisage a Tory vote within spitting distance of Labour with Brexit Party offering to coalesce with one of them? The cost being a senior Government position for NF (assuming he is elected), say PM.
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Old 12th May 2019, 11:10
  #7880 (permalink)  
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Strangely enough, I have recently spent a week at the Canberra hospital. I can tell you that your relatives are going to absolutely love working there. The general wards are short of staff but ICU is magnificent. Staff are pragmatic and helpful, you will get information from them and the waiting time for a nurse after call bell may be measured in minutes rather than by the quarter hour. One of the problems of the Canberra of course is that lots of the staff want to move to the Royal Alfred in Sydney and it is easy enough to see why, even apart from a hospital comparison.. Canberra is a fine city but it is a rambling scattered place, a little like DC, with little soul and expensive to boot.
IMAUHO they've made a very wise choice, both to leave the UK and to go to Australia. I am absolutely certain that they won't regret it.

Last edited by cavortingcheetah; 12th May 2019 at 11:22.
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