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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 29th Nov 2018, 13:18
  #741 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: England
Posts: 343
Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Those who keep insisting on the myth that the UK is a tiny player in international trade should, perhaps, read some facts, rather than rely on fake news.

From the latest WTO data I could find from a quick search, these are the top ten trading nations in the world:

1 United States
2 China
3 Germany
4 United Kingdom
5 Japan
6 France
7 Netherlands
8 Hong Kong
9 South Korea
10 Italy
Whoever might have said we are a tiny player is of course entirely wrong, as your figures unsurprisingly demonstrate.
None of our trading arrangements have yet changed.

The challenge will come when the present deals come to an end. Do we have suitably skilled negotiators in place ready for that challenge?
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 13:19
  #742 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
VP959: The answer that will be along soon is that is because we are still in, and we only have that trade because of the EU, and whatever deal we get, or don't get, will cause us to lose all that trade and we will fall to the bottom of the list along with all the other poor nations, apparently.
There you are
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 13:34
  #743 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Hyeres, France
Posts: 1
Just a couple of genuine questions -

Did anyone ask May, Hammond, Carne when these forecasts were produced ? Careful planning of the release date or complete chance they're released with the results which they disclose just a week or so before the ' this or nothing ' Parliamentary vote ??

On TV last night, some UK politioco who I didn't recognise was stressing that the results didn't mean that the UK would be 3.9% <> 9.3% worse off than today - but 3.9% <> 9.3% comparatively worse off than if the UK stayed in the EU. My question would be compared to ? To the best of my knowledge, and I'd be more than happy if someone can point me / link me to it, the EU's own 15 year economic forecast because I don't believe there is one or ever has been one which stretched out 15 years. So again, 3.9% <> 9.3% comparative to ??

In the same vein, can anyone point me to or link me to a similar scenarios Economic Analysis for those of us left in the EU, because again I haven't seen anything produced by the EU to indicate / illustrate GDP increase / decrease for the EU post Brexit ??

Hate to say it, but really does sound like PM May, Carne and the UK Civil Service trying it on....Again....
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 13:42
  #744 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Interesting observation about Topps Tiles. We went there to get some travertine stone flooring. Over 40/m. Saw the name of the quarry in Turkey where the stuff comes from on some samples there. Went online, found the quarry sell the same stuff directly for ~14/m. We bought three full pallet loads, had them shipped from Turkey, paid the carriage, duty etc and still the price came in at well under half that of the tile place, even with a load of stone left over. The ~half a pallet load left over I sold to a neighbour for around 20/m who was dead chuffed at such a good deal, so our actual cost per m for what we used ended up being a bit less.
Doesn't entirely surprise me. You've cut out the middleman (Topps Tiles). OK, your cost per tonne in transport might have been higher, though I wouldn't mind betting that your 4 pallets were on the back of a full load destined for Topps, and so you probably didn't pay that much more for shipping as a percentage of value. Anyway, a savvy way of doing business - if you need a big enough quantity / value of something to make it worthwhile.

Out of interest, how did you clear the shipment through customs, how much was the clearance cost, at what point did you pay the VAT and any duties due, and did pay a fee for using the forwarder's VAT and Duty Deferment account? Just curious.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 13:50
  #745 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
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What use are predictions anyway?
Most of us will have to carry on as we are, planning for the worst case and enjoying anything better. Just like we always have.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 13:54
  #746 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 67
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Doesn't entirely surprise me. You've cut out the middleman (Topps Tiles). OK, your cost per tonne in transport might have been higher, though I wouldn't mind betting that your 4 pallets were on the back of a full load destined for Topps, and so you probably didn't pay that much more for shipping as a percentage of value. Anyway, a savvy way of doing business - if you need a big enough quantity / value of something to make it worthwhile.

Out of interest, how did you clear the shipment through customs, how much was the clearance cost, at what point did you pay the VAT and any duties due, and did pay a fee for using the forwarder's VAT and Duty Deferment account? Just curious.
The pallet company arranged by the quarry did the whole lot, shipment details, duty and VAT paid at entry to the UK and delivery to the bottom of our drive. The duty and VAT (pretty sure the duty was non-existent and it was just VAT) were included in the final bill, plus a handling fee of around 15 for dealing with the VAT etc at the point of entry to the UK. I actually paid two bills, one to the quarry, which included the shipping cost, and a separate one to the shipping company for the VAT and their handling charge. I didn't have to deal with customs etc at all, that was all handled by the shipping company. The pallets arrived on the back of a UK pallet company truck, which was the only slightly awkward bit, as it was just a curtain sider with a tail lift, so they could only drop the pallets at the end of the drive. I borrowed a "rough ground" pallet truck from a builder friend and towed the pallets up our (steep) drive one by one behind my car.

We were building this new house at the time, and around half the ground floor plus all the bathrooms are floored in travertine, so there's quite a lot of it, which is what made buying it by the pallet load worthwhile.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 13:59
  #747 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
The pallet company arranged by the quarry did the whole lot, shipment details, duty and VAT paid at entry to the UK and delivery to the bottom of our drive. The duty and VAT (pretty sure the duty was non-existent and it was just VAT) were included in the final bill, plus a handling fee of around 15 for dealing with the VAT etc at the point of entry to the UK. I actually paid two bills, one to the quarry, which included the shipping cost, and a separate one to the shipping company for the VAT and their handling charge. I didn't have to deal with customs etc at all, that was all handled by the shipping company. The pallets arrived on the back of a UK pallet company truck, which was the only slightly awkward bit, as it was just a curtain sider with a tail lift, so they could only drop the pallets at the end of the drive. I borrowed a "rough ground" pallet truck from a builder friend and towed the pallets up our (steep) drive one by one behind my car.

We were building this new house at the time, and around half the ground floor plus all the bathrooms are floored in travertine, so there's quite a lot of it, which is what made buying it by the pallet load worthwhile.
Thanks, just interested as I used to work in European road logistics and wondered how it worked for you as a private importer. Not Brexit orientated at all (for once!).
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 14:11
  #748 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Thanks, just interested as I used to work in European road logistics and wondered how it worked for you as a private importer. Not Brexit orientated at all (for once!).
I suppose there is a tenuous Brexit connection, in that I was doing "trade" with a non-EU state, with the goods being transported by road and sea through several EU states, and ending up in one. If it was painless for me to do this, then I can't see why it should be any more difficult or costly once we are out of the EU. As far as I can see from the paperwork, the goods only hit customs at the port of entry to the UK; they seem to have had some sort of "free pass" through every other EU state they passed through to get to us.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 14:16
  #749 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I suppose there is a tenuous Brexit connection, in that I was doing "trade" with a non-EU state, with the goods being transported by road and sea through several EU states, and ending up in one. If it was painless for me to do this, then I can't see why it should be any more difficult or costly once we are out of the EU. As far as I can see from the paperwork, the goods only hit customs at the port of entry to the UK; they seem to have had some sort of "free pass" through every other EU state they passed through to get to us.

Could that be because Turkey is in the EU Customs Union ?
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 14:18
  #750 (permalink)  
 
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So now we have May and Corbyn both agreeing to debate #brexit ... but on different TV channels!

"How bonkers can you get?" some people are asking.

But no, stop and think about it: they're both going to take the same, pro-#brexit, line, so doing so on different channels increases the audience for their joint message. Perfectly logical.

(I don't expect this post to age well btw - this story is changing by the minute.)
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 14:37
  #751 (permalink)  
 
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I'd much prefer McDonnell and the fake aristocrat (aka Rees-Mogg) to debate... both of them firmly believe their narratives and would not toe any party line, and both would be pretty passionate.

Actually admire Rees-Mogg... he is one of the few Tories that actually believes what he says... unencumbered by whips or anything... had to laugh when I think FCO Ministers called him "damned impertinent" after he questioned May on a number of issues, for he certainly is that...
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 14:38
  #752 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
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It's a completely pointless debate, the viewing public can't vote for anything. We've already done that and apparently voted to be worse off.

Rather than waste the viewing slot and think they should have a special Strictly Come Dancing with whoever wins the dance off between May and JC becoming the new PM. I'd watch that.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 15:07
  #753 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I suppose there is a tenuous Brexit connection, in that I was doing "trade" with a non-EU state, with the goods being transported by road and sea through several EU states, and ending up in one. If it was painless for me to do this, then I can't see why it should be any more difficult or costly once we are out of the EU. As far as I can see from the paperwork, the goods only hit customs at the port of entry to the UK; they seem to have had some sort of "free pass" through every other EU state they passed through to get to us.
There wasn't an overt Brexit element, other than it prompted to wonder just how easy it is to bring things into the UK from outside the EU, by road.

The truck would have left the manufacturer, or the groupage operators depot in Turkey, and moved, as you say, seamlessly, across EU borders under the EU Community Transit system. This involves the haulier / forwarder putting up a Community Transit Guarantee that is called upon if the CT document raised in the country of departure isn't discharged upon arrival at destination. Obviously trucks can be checked en route, but you probably wouldn't have seen anyevidence of that, unless your pallets had been phyically opened and inspected, which given the commodity would have been unlikely.

Although Mrs May wants to negotiate seamless friction free movement of goods once the UK is out of the EU, that will depend entirely upon the agreement that has to be negotiated during the exit transition. If an agreement is arrived at it will surely include something similar, or better. If the UK drops out of the EU with no agreements in place, you have to ask how transport will work so smoothly, since there would be no arrangements in place to discharge CT liability. Then there are other questions relating to things such has operator permits, LGV driver licences and the like that again in the event of crashing out of the EU on 29th March would all come into play, along with operator licences. Much of this we thought we had seen the back of years ago.

It is for these sorts of reasons that, whatever she says, as Yvette Cooper said in this morning's committee hearings, she - Mrs. May simply can't allow a cliff edge, no deal exit on 29th March. She is neither that stupid, nor that reckless.

The next 2 weeks are going to prove very interesting, and it would be a brave person to forecast where we'll be by Christmas. possibly, but I think very unlikely - up the proverbial creek without a paddle.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 15:27
  #754 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
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Then there are other questions relating to things such has operator permits, LGV driver licences and the like that again in the event of crashing out of the EU on 29th March would all come into play, along with operator licences. Much of this we thought we had seen the back of years ago.
I presume that when this scenario is in full swing Continental operators, who shift more stuff to us than we do them, will be unaffected?
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 15:37
  #755 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
I presume that when this scenario is in full swing Continental operators, who shift more stuff to us than we do them, will be unaffected?
I very much doubt it, everyone will be effected - however as usual, they are less dependent upon the UK than the UK is on Europe. That's a fact, not project fear.

Incidentally, another little problem related to UK road haulage is that Brits are reluctant to take on LGV jobs these days, all the big hauliers are constantly looking for drivers. How will UK hauliers cope when the UK govt has closed it's doors on low skilled workers from the EU. Much the same a fruit growers, the hospitality industry, the caring professions I suspect - badly!

This is why, as I mentioned The UK can't afford the cliff edge. Mrs. May needs to buy time, and that time is the transition period which we will only get if we sign up to the whole agreement. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 15:52
  #756 (permalink)  
 
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Rees Mogg is one of the Eton/Oxbridge crowd, just like our famous spies.
I wonder whether he is also a spy for Russia. He seems to want to ruin the future of the UK economy, and see lots of our workers unemployed. Our foreign owned motor producers will be off like a shot. Nissan and JLR closed by 2020 if he gets his way.
The Russians have infiltrated Labour many times, as we know, and could easily have placed him in the Tories. His behaviour makes me think that he is another spy. Either that, or a Useful Idiot.
Not that he cares as he and his missus are seriously rich.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 15:58
  #757 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
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I wonder whether he is also a spy for Russia. He seems to want to ruin the future of the UK economy, and see lots of our workers unemployed. Our foreign owned motor producers will be off like a shot. Nissan and JLR closed by 2020 if he gets his way.
Probably not by 2020; I'd bet on 2025 - but they'll be gone if he and his cronies (Bone, Johnson, Bridgen etc) get control of the levers of power. Interesting that today Angela Ledsom has thrown her support behind the PM; probably the first bit of good news she's had for a week or so. I can see some of the wavers moving toward May's deal now, though probably still not enough to win her the day.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 15:59
  #758 (permalink)  
 
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The Russians have infiltrated Labour many times, as we know
Like Wilson and Healey?
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 16:35
  #759 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
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The government has offered exactly 984 ECMT permits Hauliers will not be able to travel in Europe without the ECMT permits in their trucks on a per truck basis, if the UK crashes out of Europe with no deal. The credulous look at how the world has worked for decades & cannot conceive of it grinding to a halt. Those of us at the coalface of say for example, road haulage I.e. me, like to think doubt is what constitutes the difference between a wise man & a fool.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 16:40
  #760 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
The government has offered exactly 984 ECMT permits Hauliers will not be able to travel in Europe without the ECMT permits in their trucks on a per truck basis, if the UK crashes out of Europe with no deal. The credulous look at how the world has worked for decades & cannot conceive of it grinding to a halt. Those of us at the coalface of say for example, road haulage I.e. me, like to think doubt is what constitutes the difference between a wise man & a fool.
Do I hear the words "fear" and "project" but not necessarily in the same order?

I still fail to understand why the government, well Mrs May at any rate, isn't pointing out these issues to all those who really need to understand them - the MPs, not only from her own party but others too. How ever many short coming her deal has - and it has many, failing to back it is playing hard and fast with the country's future, and that of it's citizens, no matter which way they voted in the referendum.
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