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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 15th Mar 2019, 00:03
  #6221 (permalink)  
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I think that the concepts of hard this and soft that lie more in the minds of the north channel locals than in that of the sud manche federalists. To the EU merchant you're either in or out. To the Brit, remainer or leaver, there seem to be degrees of indecent exposure. The evil empire headquartered in Brussels has never made any secret of its decisive oneness. I am sure that Sun Tzu had something to say along the lines of, 'if you confuse the motives and capability of your enemy, you will face annihilation by petting with thousand year eggs. '
uite amazing, the prescience of these Chinese. It would have been so much more advantageous if the Convention of Peking had leased Britain to Kong Kong.
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 05:54
  #6222 (permalink)  
 
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P.N.:
Was it Trump?
Indeed it was. My fault there for having written the post in reply to K&C's post and not posting it immediately. Sorry for the confusion.
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 07:25
  #6223 (permalink)  
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Just in case you thought the splits were just in the Conservative party.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...tbenchers-quit

Five Labour frontbenchers quit after defying Jeremy Corbyn over second EU referendum

The Labour leader had ordered his MPs to abstain in a vote on an amedment calling for Brexit to be delayed so there can be a so-called "people's vote". But the five rebels - Ruth Smeeth, Justin Madders, Yvonne Fovargue, Stephanie Peacock and Emma Lewell-Buck - broke the party whip to either vote for or against another poll.

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Old 15th Mar 2019, 07:31
  #6224 (permalink)  
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https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...dlock-rejected

Geoffrey Cox's bid to break Brexit deal deadlock rejected by eurosceptic lawyers

Legal advice prepared by the Attorney General states that the UK could use the Vienna Convention to unilaterally exit the Irish backstop. Mr Cox said that if it was shown that the backstop - an insurance policy to avoid a hard border in Ireland - was having a "socially destabilising effect on Northern Ireland", then Article 62 of the convention could apply, allowing the UK to leave it.

His legal advice, seen by the Daily Telegraph, says: "It is in my view clear and undoubted in those exceptional circumstances that international law provides the [UK] with the right to terminate the Withdrawal Agreement."

But a "star chamber" of Brexiteer lawyers, including DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds and veteran Tory eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash, said the Attorney General's advice was "badly misconceived". They pointed out that the Vienna Convention can only be used "in extreme circumstances", and that even the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989 did not provide enough reason to trigger it.

Star chamber member Martin Howe QC told the Evening Standard: "The leading case in the International Court of Justice shows this requires radical change of circumstances. The fall of the Soviet Union, disappearance of the Warsaw Pact, and dissolution of Czechoslovakia, were not sufficient to satisfy this ground“.

“The other issue is, under Article 62, the change of circumstances has to be unforeseeable. As we are talking about this ‘change of circumstances’ now, it cannot be unforeseeable."

The row once again leaves the Prime Minister facing a major challenge in her attempts to get her Brexit deal approved by MPs. She will bring it back to the Commons next week, but without being able to provide assurances to the DUP and Tory Brexiteers that the UK will not be trapped in the backstop indefinitely, it has little chance of passing........



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Old 15th Mar 2019, 07:32
  #6225 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ChrisVJ View Post
Not sure I understand this.

May offered a vote on leaving with her deal and got turned down. Then she offered a vote on leaving without a deal and got turned down. Next she will offer a deal on getting a delay.

It seems to me that when her deal was turned down the no deal option was triggered automatically as delay is contingent on unanimous approval from all the EU countries, it is not in May's or parliament's discretion to grant it. How can you send your PM to negotiate after you have taken all her cards off the table?
Tend to agree. I think they also voted against the amendment to put a fixed date of 30 th June.

If there EU do agree but come up with a delay say 21 months, they vote again?
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 07:38
  #6226 (permalink)  
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 07:56
  #6227 (permalink)  
 
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Another view f Brexit from Lord Pearson.
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 08:14
  #6228 (permalink)  
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Latest reports are that the EU will insist that a extension must be at least a year, and that it will only be agreed if the UK, effectively, agrees that it is only to arrange that the UK stays in the EU.......

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e...ndum-z6td8nvd7

EU will agree to extra time if there is a second Brexit referendum

The European Union is poised to tell Theresa May that she must hold a second referendum or soften Brexit in return for them granting a lengthy delay to Britain’s departure date.......

Donald Tusk, president of the European council, who will chair next Thursday’s talks between EU leaders, is pushing for a long extension so that Britain can either reverse or soften Brexit. “During my consultations ahead of the European council, I will appeal to the EU 27 to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its Brexit strategy and build consensus around it,” he said......

Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, said yesterday that Britain needed a “long reflection period” lasting “21 months, to the end of 2020, or whatever the period would be”. He added: “We’re essentially looking for, we will look for, a much longer extension to allow Britain to rethink its approach to Brexit.”

His choice of words is highly significant because the term “period of reflection” was used after Ireland voted against the EU’s Lisbon treaty in 2008 to build pressure for a second referendum, which was held to reverse it just over a year later. It was also used after the French and Dutch referendums, reheating the EU’s constitutional treaty in 2005 before in effect reversing the result with the almost identical Lisbon treaty two years later.

Mrs May has been told of the conditions in private talks over recent days with other European leaders and senior EU figures, including Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president. The EU will insist that any extension must be used to decide between the options of a second referendum, cancelling Brexit or dropping the government’s red lines on exiting the single market and customs union.......

The conditions are highly unlikely to be publicly set out in any agreement on a delay to Brexit. However, there will be strings attached to a delay that will be billed as a more neutral “period of reflection” that, as Mr Coveney put it, would “allow Britain to rethink Brexit”. One diplomat said: “It will be space for Britain to reflect. It will not be the EU ordering a second referendum. That will not work, it has to be a British choice.”.......



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Old 15th Mar 2019, 08:42
  #6229 (permalink)  
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This delay, and it's ramifications, should not be taken lightly.......it will clash with the Ashes series and Cricket World Cup !!

However, the word extension is now gaining prominence......which is quite apt really..... given the members involved.
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 09:10
  #6230 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ChrisVJ View Post
Not sure I understand this.

May offered a vote on leaving with her deal and got turned down. Then she offered a vote on leaving without a deal and got turned down. Next she will offer a deal on getting a delay.

It seems to me that when her deal was turned down the no deal option was triggered automatically as delay is contingent on unanimous approval from all the EU countries, it is not in May's or parliament's discretion to grant it. How can you send your PM to negotiate after you have taken all her cards off the table?
Hard to have a negotiating position without negotiations.

The EU will only reopen the withdrawal agreement if the UK's red lines are changed & the UK is busy arguing with itself. What would you have them do?
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 09:24
  #6231 (permalink)  
 
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Tell the UK to piss off hopefully and put this nonsense to bed and the UK exits on the 29th.

What I think will happen is they will say no to an extension and the UK will be left with no deal or cancel art50. Which will of course cause mayhem in the last few days. And May will be hoping that the only other option of her deal will be taken.

This is all part of the bluff game.
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 10:02
  #6232 (permalink)  
 
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I think the EU will accept a delay and a long one, as it is my belief they are complicit in the making of this mess to make sure that leaving is as difficult it can be, and this despite the expense and inconvenience to them, having said that I don’t really believe they want the UK to be voting in MEP’s who they believe will be disruptive and undermine their future plans, however, maybe they are confident they can manage that situation in the hope that the UK does not leave, which in the longer term would more advantageous to them, as has been said before, we wait and see how this drama continues to pan out over the next few weeks,
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 10:17
  #6233 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
I think the EU will accept a delay and a long one, as it is my belief they are complicit in the making of this mess to make sure that leaving is as difficult it can be ...
There we go again - 'it's all the fault of the EU'

The UK set the exit date when it triggered Art.50.
An exit agreement was reached months ago. It's sorted, done.
The EU is prepared for the UK to leave on March 29th.

It is the UK government/parliament that can't decide what it wants to do now.
Yes, the EU would prefer us to stay. But they can only sit and watch now as we fall to pieces on the rocks at the bottom of Brexit Cliff.
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 10:19
  #6234 (permalink)  
 
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I think there will be several countries want conditions to be imposed which won't be acceptable for an extension leaving only out no deal or cancel.
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 10:29
  #6235 (permalink)  
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I know, it's not about Brexit and thus it's easy to miss other matters in the UK, but, here's another happy example of privatisation coming home to roost ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47575123

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Old 15th Mar 2019, 10:48
  #6236 (permalink)  
 
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Presumably you’d prefer a statist-socialist utopia where nobody ever goes bust but in the (frequent) event of mismanagement the only option is to firehose on tens or hundreds of millions of taxpayers £’s

ps +1 to your earlier comment on conflicting with the Ashes
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 10:50
  #6237 (permalink)  
 
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Will Crapita be next I wonder?
One can live in hope.
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 10:55
  #6238 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
There we go again - 'it's all the fault of the EU'

The UK set the exit date when it triggered Art.50.
An exit agreement was reached months ago. It's sorted, done.
The EU is prepared for the UK to leave on March 29th.

It is the UK government/parliament that can't decide what it wants to do now.
Yes, the EU would prefer us to stay. But they can only sit and watch now as we fall to pieces on the rocks at the bottom of Brexit Cliff.
I did not say 'it's all the fault of the EU' I said it is my belief that they are complicit with the UK as they do not want us to leave, which is an opinion just as valid as others are, even if on opposite sides of the debate. The rest of it I totally agree with, well, accept the falling to pieces at the bottom of the rocks, but we will have to agree to disagree on that one
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 10:59
  #6239 (permalink)  
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Is cancellation viable in the time left?
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Old 15th Mar 2019, 11:02
  #6240 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Presumably you’d prefer a statist-socialist utopia where nobody ever goes bust but in the (frequent) event of mismanagement the only option is to firehose on tens or hundreds of millions of taxpayers £’s

ps +1 to your earlier comment on conflicting with the Ashes
Sadly, you seem to have missed the fact this Gov't does precisely that when the panacea of privatisation goes for a can of worms......courtesy of the ever generous UK tax payer.

Crapita ?...enticing thought I agree, but, think of the potential reduction in column inches for "Private Eye " !

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