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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 5th Mar 2019, 13:32
  #5701 (permalink)  
 
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This all begs the question, had people known in 2016 what they know now, would they have voted for it? I think they would not have done so. And thus we see a procession of Brexiteers poo-pooing a 2nd referendum. Condequently, on the day BMW, being the latest to warn of thousands of job losses, I predict this farrago will run for decades.
An elderly lady I was talking to yesterday (not, i would hasten to add about Brexit) said she voted to leave, but knowing what she knows now she'd definitely have voted to remain. Also said that the main reason she, and other voted for leave was immigration.

As for BMW leaving in the event of no deal, to my mind they'll leave anyway, unless any trade deal we come to at the end of transition is extremely good, as in pretty much what we've got now, they'll be gone soon after the end of transition. Simply, outside the EU there's no incentive for the company to stay.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 13:35
  #5702 (permalink)  
 
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There is no incentive after the Japan deal for any of them to stay.

They are going, in or out or in between.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 13:38
  #5703 (permalink)  
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Parapunter, agree your 1310 post entirely.

A big problem though was the EU mantra that we could not negotiate agreements until we were out.

That was a nonsense.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 13:43
  #5704 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
There is no incentive after the Japan deal for any of them to stay.

They are going, in or out or in between.
You're right, with the UK leaving the EU there is no incentive for them staying in the UK. Had the UK been remaining within the EU, the incentive to pull manufacturing out of the UK would have been less. Do you honestly believe that Japanese manufacturers are going to close all their EU plants? If you do you are probably misguided, or perhaps, with your constant prophecies of the imminent collapse of the EU, just hopeful.

BMW sell much of their Mini production within the EU, so to shift manufacture to another plant inside the EU a logical move. They certainly won't be looking to build a plant in Japan anytime soon.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 13:47
  #5705 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
That's the law. Which some employers choose to demonstrate their adherence to by refusing to pay you for those 30 minutes, whether or not you actually work them.
And that was my remote HR people who tried to get me to adhere the their rules. As they never visited, they never knew.

Technically, as the CS paid you a salary based on conditioned hours ( bureaucratese at its best) but required you to be at work an hour longer they were not paying you for the breaks.

Never mind, all this undemocratic foreign-imposed nanny-stateism will soon be gone, and we will be free to send small boys up chimneys for 25 hours a day again.
I suppose, while many workers want to worker longer and get paid more, some employers would exploit any leniency and push the rules to the limit for their advantage.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 13:50
  #5706 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Parapunter, agree your 1310 post entirely.

A big problem though was the EU mantra that we could not negotiate agreements until we were out.

That was a nonsense.
Sorry, disagree. A rules based organisation is not a mantra. It's a set of rules & a foreseeable consequence of the actions set in motion by the Government. You can't be in & negotiating behind the backs of your fellow members. Nevertheless, if you believed it was possible for us to do so, then I posit you were lied to in much the way I was expanding upon above.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 13:54
  #5707 (permalink)  
 
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You're right, with the UK leaving the EU there is no incentive for them staying in the UK. Had the UK been remaining within the EU, the incentive to pull manufacturing out of the UK would have been less. Do you honestly believe that Japanese manufacturers are going to close all their EU plants?
If it made more profit than having them in the EU then yes. Actually the UK coming out with the pound low means they are cheaper made in the UK even with import tariffs to Europe than they were before.

So quite a lot of these announcements are subject to "after reanalysis of the current market situation we are extending the production of xyz products in the UK".

Its all hot air trying to get the UK to stay in. Bit late with 24 days to go in my opinion but there we go.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:02
  #5708 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post

So quite a lot of these announcements are subject to "after reanalysis of the current market situation we are extending the production of xyz products in the UK".
Lolololololololololololol.

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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:07
  #5709 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
If it made more profit than having them in the EU then yes. Actually the UK coming out with the pound low means they are cheaper made in the UK even with import tariffs to Europe than they were before.

So quite a lot of these announcements are subject to "after reanalysis of the current market situation we are extending the production of xyz products in the UK".

Its all hot air trying to get the UK to stay in. Bit late with 24 days to go in my opinion but there we go.
If it were all about exchange rates then you have a point. But it's not, it's about logistics and costs too. Whatever happens, and whatever spin the government (and leavers) put on to it, there are going to be customs checks, customs duties and VAT to pay up front, or deferred through customs bonds. Customs clearance agents are going to have to be employed for each and every import transaction, and where there are line stops, it simply won't be possible, as it is now, to for example, have a small aircraft land the BHX, a few boxes of urgently required components offloaded and transferred to a small van or car and delivered immediately to track side at JLR's plants.

These issues are at least as, if not more important than swings in exchange rates, which we have now, and will have, whether we're in, out, half in, half out - or indeed shaking it all about!!

As you say however, it's all hot air, the 17.4 million have collectively done the damage, and some will live to reap the consequences of their actions in lost jobs, lost relative's jobs, and falls in their standard of living. The rest (of the leavers) will be comfortably wrapped up in the final salary pensions basking in the warm glow of satisfaction that they've stopped these nasty Europeans coming to work here, and taken back control.

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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:13
  #5710 (permalink)  
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" 37.5 hrs per week, 8-4.30 except 4 Friday. Mandatory 30 minute lunch break minimum "

In theory....one location actually has 2.5hrs a day planned in for breaks.....and some still managed to make this three hrs, or simply went to "change their library books " in the afternoon never to be seen again until the next day....
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:18
  #5711 (permalink)  
 
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As you say however, it's all hot air, the 17.4 million have collectively done the damage, and some will live to reap the consequences of their actions in lost jobs, lost relative's jobs, and falls in their standard of living. The rest (of the leavers) will be comfortably wrapped up in the final salary pensions basking in the warm glow of satisfaction that they've stopped these nasty Europeans coming to work here, and taken back control.
The fact we have got to 24 days to go means everything that's going to happen will happen anyway in or out. Prolonging it will just produce more damage with zero chance of healing.

And as for the final pension comment its one of the many reasons why remain have failed to make the slightest difference in the last two years. You have an image what "most" remainers are like. It 's so far from the mark you actually make matters worse and reinforce their views.

Nobody has a clue what the process is until the EU can negotiate, that can only start when we are out. Plus it's up to the UK only what rules it wants for the imports that you describe. If it wants to, it could be just an email that's required and occasional spot check.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:32
  #5712 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
Why don't you just push off with your lower sixth debating society apocalyptic crystal ball guff?
What?, as oppossed to the 'avoid the subject and insult the poster technique' that you employ?

Back to the matter in hand, for about 18 months now I have firmly believed the chance of us actually leaving (and I don't consider Theresa's deal meets that definition) is tiny, every week my feelings are reinforced.
I do however think that when it becomes clear to the public that we have all been taken for a ride by the career politicans and self important wreckers, there will be consequences.
Now I am unable to find a UK party I would even remotely consider voting for.
I wonder how many in this country feel the same?, I dare say a great many.

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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:35
  #5713 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
if you believed it was possible for us to do so, .
No, I didn't think it possible but that it should have been possible. Also how another organization can dictate to a sovereign State what that State can do? That they can is one reason that Leavers want out.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:37
  #5714 (permalink)  
 
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To be fair I had the same opinion of all the options who to vote for from when Cameron was setting all this up about the whole load of them then. The current lot are worse I will admit but who on earth in their right mind would get involved if they didn't have to until its all finished.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:37
  #5715 (permalink)  
 
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Nobody has a clue what the process is until the EU can negotiate, that can only start when we are out. plus it up to the UK only what rules it wants for the imports that you describe. If it wants to, it could be just an email that's required and occasional spot check.
I'm sure that somewhere back in the annals of this, or the former Brexit thread, I read that you were at one time or the other involved in international transport and logistics, but reading that comment I feel I must be have been mistaken.

HMRC are not going to have different clearance regimes between different countries, or groups of countries. It will be a one size fits all, unless the UK comes to it's senses and makes a new customs union, or better, stays in the one it's just about to leave. Of course being out of the customs unions allows such renowned experts as Liam Fox to swan around the world (not) making wonderful trade deals, and enjoying wonderful lunches and dinners at the taxpayer's expense.

Since he and his colleagues are not trade experts, and have been to date totally incapable of putting any meaningful trade arrangements (not deals - we can't do them till after we've left) to tie us over we stand to gain little in the way of improved trade deals anytime soon. The chickens (chlorinated ones) have come home to roost as regards any trade deal with the USA already, we haven't even started bargaining with Japan (with whom, today, we have more than adequate deal that we are walking away from), let alone awkward customers such as India and China.

30th March onwards will really show Brexiteers for what they are, deluded, and one hopes sincerely that their words and assurances given before the referendum and in the last nearly three years will be thrown back at them, loudly, clearly and often. They - the 17.4 million and their leaders cannot be allowed to get away with this debacle.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 14:50
  #5716 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
No, I didn't think it possible but that it should have been possible. Also how another organization can dictate to a sovereign State what that State can do? That they can is one reason that Leavers want out.
The logic of this is askew. We are a member of the European Union. The EU negotiates trade relationships en bloc on behalf of it's members & the rules state individual member countries may not do the same unilaterally while they remain members so as not to undermine collective agreements.

That isn't an ambush, it's a thing, a known thing. Why would they relax their rules for us? After all, it's those rules that have caused the past two years of angst over Northern Ireland for very good reason. Rules exist so everyone involved knows what they should be doing. If we went off negotiating new deals while still a member, which incidentally, we have done to a degree anyway, while the EU have looked the other way, then what's to stop any member state doing the same? Then the whole thing collapses & third countries end up in a nightmare of individual deals, disputes & a morass of regulations, standards & frankly an impossible trade structure.

It's like saying I'm emigrating & before I leave, I'd like to drive round with no insurance for two years & I don't think the Police should pinch me for it because when I move to Narnia, British law won't apply to me.

Ototh, it's a handy tool for Tory fantasists to bash the EU, inverting what they already knew to create the image of a bully boy socking it to the plucky UK, which is of course, complete bollocks.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 15:01
  #5717 (permalink)  
 
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HMRC are not going to have different clearance regimes between different countries, or groups of countries. It will be a one size fits all, unless the UK comes to it's senses and makes a new customs union, or better, stays in the one it's just about to leave.
We shall have to wait and see.

And currently there is a country that's outside the EU customs union which there are multiple daily flights to and from the UK and urgent shipments go through in mins both ways and have been doing since before the 70's of parts. Which to be fair is what I had most experience of dealing with in my day doing logistics. I will admit in recent years the amount of traffic has decreased significantly.
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 15:30
  #5718 (permalink)  
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Pp, again you have a point but I submit there is a difference between a country that has activated Article 50 and one within the golden circle doing likewise.

In the latter case, having secretly got all its ducks in a row they activate Article 50. Now that would be duplicitous. Of course no EU country would ever do that, would they?
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 15:36
  #5719 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Pp, again you have a point but I submit there is a difference between a country that has activated Article 50 and one within the golden circle doing likewise.

In the latter case, having secretly got all its ducks in a row they activate Article 50. Now that would be duplicitous. Of course no EU country would ever do that, would they?
Well, the latter half of that is a little smeary while the former is a wish list. I'll happily concede a mechanism may warrant inclusion however, it isn't in there. The UK with all it's whizzy Eton & Harrow types at the top, running the place won't have been unaware of that. And yet still the clock was et running. What does that tell you?
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Old 5th Mar 2019, 15:40
  #5720 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
We shall have to wait and see.

And currently there is a country that's outside the EU customs union which there are multiple daily flights to and from the UK and urgent shipments go through in mins both ways and have been doing since before the 70's of parts. Which to be fair is what I had most experience of dealing with in my day doing logistics. I will admit in recent years the amount of traffic has decreased significantly.
Which country? Just curious. Do they have an FTA with the EU?

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