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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 27th Feb 2019, 20:21
  #5461 (permalink)  
 
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They are going for the final bluff.... Cancel or sex and travel.

And I really hope they stick to it.
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 20:31
  #5462 (permalink)  
 
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They will..Theresa will cave.
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 20:36
  #5463 (permalink)  
 
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An extension just delays the issue, and likely muddies the water more, and may well end up the same as where we are today, or should I say you are.

Haven't heard much of the business side... surely businesses are then subjected to MORE uncertainty ... and by the time a decision is finally made... the ones that are deciding whether to go have already scarpered.

No extension without a plan, warn Macron and Merkel
Only thing I can think of is a general election... anything less will be submerged into the current swamp.
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 20:37
  #5464 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
They are going for the final bluff.... Cancel or sex and travel.

And I really hope they stick to it.
There's no bluff and there never has been.
They just say it like it is and always has been
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 20:46
  #5465 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
There's no bluff and there never has been.
They just say it like it is and always has been
The German car industry is cutting it a bit fine.
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 20:52
  #5466 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
The German car industry is cutting it a bit fine.
OK, I'll bite. What are you talking about now?
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 20:52
  #5467 (permalink)  
 
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Never mind. Theresa can take over the Swindon Honda works for the Krafte dur Freude project. A basic car that people can save for through a weekly stamp card.
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 21:47
  #5468 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I'd guess that pretty much all of them support the idea of a common market. The reason many chose to vote to leave was creeping federalism, and the removal of governance from Westminster to Brussels. Lots of anecdotes (probably many with little factual basis) to reinforce their views. Most (probably all) don't trust the EU at all, and believe that it's an undemocratic gravy train supported by corruption.
My sentiments precisely.
I recognise the benefits (I availed myself of the ability to work in Europe), but I fear the tightening Federalism.
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 22:01
  #5469 (permalink)  
 
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Is M. Macron speaking logically here? He say the withdrawal agreement cannot be renegotiated and follows that up with an extension can be considered if it is justified by new British choices. Surely, if the UK makes "new choices" and puts these to Brussels, then surely this is tantamount to renegotiating ?
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Old 27th Feb 2019, 22:09
  #5470 (permalink)  
 
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Justified is the operative word. Given Mays record to date with votes & alternative arrangements, what do you think might be driving the EU's prevarication?
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 01:28
  #5471 (permalink)  
 
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The politicians in Westminster have made it very clear that they are not keen on Brexit. Various schemes have been put forward that would allow the UK to continue to enjoy the benefits of membership while leaving the EU. Obviously the EU is having none of that nonsense. In response the EU proposed a deal that effectively ties the UK to the EU for an indefinite period but with no political input. That is clearly unacceptable from a UK perspective.

The EU have made it perfectly clear that the deal on the table is the only one on offer and it will not be modified in any significant way, no matter what the eventual wording of any final, final draft might say.

The politicians in Westminster have a problem in that none of them want to be seen endorsing a hard Brexit, fearful of their chances of re-election should a General Election be called soon after Brexit and before the inevitable short term disruption caused by Brexit has been smoothed over.

A further complication arises as a result of European Elections being held in June. Clearly the UK can't be expected to partake in these elections and I suspect that other EU nations will be very keen to ensure that we are in no position to do so.

So our MPs decided to vote to give themselves the powers to request a delay on Brexit if there is no agreement on a deal and exiting with no deal is the only other option.

Clearly this is just a ploy to keep "kicking the can down the road". It is extremely doubtful that all members of the EU would support the UK's request for a delay. Spain in particular might disagree due the issues over Gibraltar. Other nations also have equally compelling historical reasons for wanting to get their own back on the British. In any case, the UK would have to put forward a very meaningful case for any delay, such as holding a General Election.

With a shade over four weeks until a default no deal Brexit, the current UK parliamentary disarray allows honour to be satisfied on both sides. The Westminster politicians argue over the terms of Brexit and end up voting for a delay. The EU refuse to grant a delay on the grounds that the UK has made no meaningful steps to accomodate EU demands.

Brexit Day comes and goes with UK MPs claiming that they tried their best but default Brexit was forced by the EU. In Europe, MPs will claim that British intransigence over the leaving deal meant they had no option but to wash their hands of the matter. Honour is satisfied on both sides.

The UK electorate will have finally got what they voted for. The remain supporters will be less than happy, but at least they can start their campaign to rejoin the EU in earnest in the full knowledge that it will probably never happen. Rejoining the EU again will certainly mean agreeing to the full immersive experience with the Pound being replaced by the Euro, no rebates, full liability for bailing out Southern and Eastern European states as required and total submission to EU governance as part of the EU Federation. Then there will be the question of our contribution towards the EU Military Defense Force.

At this late stage, hard Brexit is the default option and one that will be forced upon us one way or another.



Last edited by G0ULI; 28th Feb 2019 at 01:32. Reason: spelling
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 05:23
  #5472 (permalink)  
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Away from those troublesome trade deals and tariffs and backstops, there's another unfortunate inconvenience to be addressed......lets call this inconvenience ...people.

As the article says, Treeza brought her success at the Home Office with her when she moved down the road.....but, it's nice to see the spirit of unity prevailing and others following her " U " turns with such devoted zeal....

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...oral-blindspot

And now, credit where it's due. Sadly, "Letter from America " and Alastair Cooke no longer graces the airwaves....thankfully, here on JB, we are fortunate in having "Letter from Norfolk " as a substitute !....

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 28th Feb 2019 at 05:36.
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 05:29
  #5473 (permalink)  
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I suspect Gouli has it:

Call GE

Request extension to Art 50

Labour have Ref 2 added to manifesto

Hung parliament or narrow Lab/SNP majority
2nd ref (The question is, what's the question?)

Project Fear to the nth degree

Result: to remain, or insufficient majority either way

Art 50 act repealed

EU swiftly moves to close the loopholes, demands UK opt outs are over ruled by QMV.

UK becomes cash cow to support ailing economies for the next 10 years

UK tax receipts increase to feed EU demand

UK citizens, in the interest of parity with financially struggling EU will take further cuts in services

UK citizens by 2030 will be iro 7-8000 worse off

EU win
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 05:49
  #5474 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Harley Quinn;10402543]I suspect Gouli has it:

Call GE

Request extension to Art 50

Labour have Ref 2 added to manifesto

Hung parliament or narrow Lab/SNP majority
2nd ref (The question is, what's the question?)

That's big one though isn't it? Would Labour even in the current febrile atmosphere be able to retain it's current level of representation in parliament, let alone increase it by the 30 or so necessary to approach a Labour/SNP majority?

It may appear to voters that the new TIG grouping has achieved in a week outside their parties what was impossible to achieve whilst inside. With one poll showing their support at 18% and Labour down at 23% it would not take a great deal for grateful Remainers to reverse those ratings and we have a whole different ball game.
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 06:04
  #5475 (permalink)  
 
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Annoyed leavers would also be in the mix so it would be completely uncharted territory.

The polls are basically stuffed hard exit or cancelling. And the Eu doesn't want anything workable in the middle.


Cancelling would create more problems than no deal exit. Glad I am not a politician

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Old 28th Feb 2019, 07:01
  #5476 (permalink)  
 
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I meant politician's. Sorry on phone

But actually your interpretation is also correct as well. The polling analysis has no history to be able to refine the data to predict anything add in the pissed off who don't normally bother voting and nobody has a clue.
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 07:03
  #5477 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...tain-qswjw8637

Not sure if something similar has been posted.
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 07:17
  #5478 (permalink)  
 
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nothing positive on Brexit gets posted or if it does it will be removed.
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 07:25
  #5479 (permalink)  
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ExRigger, that is what shows how confused the whole thing is. The pound strengthens, the stock market goes up and down but the trend is generally
upward. The political picture remains confused.
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Old 28th Feb 2019, 07:35
  #5480 (permalink)  
 
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There is a raft of stuff not being reported in the Media which I will admit is completely contradictory and more likely to confuse than anything else.
It doesn't make good headlines and some of it has potential for causing runs on banks and markets if it spooks the general population of both UK and the other member states.

You have a personal choice what you personally think will happen and you have to sort out your own plan to deal with it.

The pound is currently under valued and if no deal exit occurs is likely to drop to sub 1:1 with the euro. At that point a lot of people myself included will bang in a load of cash to invest in the UK. Its going to go crazy for a while. Every time something gets announced it will swing up and down more wildly than it is at the moment.
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