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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:16
  #3781 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
The Brexit negotiators in Brussels have made it clear that the 'backstop' keeps the UK in the single market and customs union until the UK agrees a trade deal which keeps us in the single market and customs union - unable to negotiate independant trade agreements, under all EU regulation and unable to have any influence over those regulations. The UK would also be obliged to offer free access to UK markets to any country to which the EU signs a free trade agreement, but without reciprocal access to the other third-party country's markets. The Belgian EU Brexit team member interviewed on Radio 4 this morning made it clear that the integrity of the single market was of overriding importance, and any damage to the EU resulting from a no-deal exit was worth the pain, compared to a sensible border arrangement for NI and ROI. Why May thought the 'backstop' lock in to the single market and customs union would be acceptable is a mystery, maybe by burying it on page 63 of the 'agreement' then MPs might fall asleep before reaching it.

Both UK and ROI have made it clear that there will not be a hard border in the event of no deal. The EU have deliberately manoeuvred the UK into a position of a lock in to the single market, or no deal. They may not get what they wish for.

Watching the TV program on Monday of the recent history of the EU/UK discussions, and listening to the EU people interviewed, my wife (up to now a mild remain supporter) said 'They just don't get it, do they' of the arrogance of the EU that they know what is best for us, and we are stupid not to see it. She will support leave with no deal if it comes to a second referendum.

(By the way, I get irritated with the BBC having adopted the 'Peoples Vote title for a second referendum - language matters.)
Totally agree, we gave up any bargaining chips we had at the start and let them ride rough shod over us, even when just call me Dave" was attempting to get concessions their arrogance in their attitudes failed to realise the reality of it all and the possibility that we would no longer be taken as someones fool, they had to opportunity to come to some compromise that would have prevented this happening....they failed."

And it still goes on... And its not helped by the farce that's called Parliament, how the **** can you vote against a hard Brexit
when A you do not put an alternative or even a plan in place...
and B that a hard Brexit is by default triggered by the fact the date we leave is written into law, with or without an agreement..

It's like we have given the vote to a bunch of Lemmmings.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:23
  #3782 (permalink)  
 
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virginblue,

And just to reinforce the farcical nature of Digby Jones's comments, BMW could go a long way to cushioning the blow that BMW Munich MIGHT suffer by relocating the Mini production line and it's 4,000 jobs from the UK to Germany, by relocating the 1,000 jobs at Swindon that make Mini body panels, and the 1,500 jobs at Birmingham that make MIni engines.
Airbus could also contribute by relocating the 14,000 odd wing jobs from the UK to France, Germany and Spain, along with the approx 100,000 associated jobs in the supply chain, and Volkswagen could do likewise by relocating 4,000 jobs from Crewe to other EU nations. The list goes on and on, Siemens, Thales, Ford etc etc etc.
And the UK could retaliate by threatening to move its automotive factories from France, Germany and Spain etc back to the UK couldn't it? Oh wait, there aren't any!
Whose shaking in their boots now?
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:26
  #3783 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
Good grief.

Digby Jones on Sky News tellling stupid things like "If I were the mayor of Munich I would be shaking in my boots with 30.000 redundancies at BMW on
BMW group UK sales contribution 2017 = 9.8%

Leavers lie and they lie and they lie.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:38
  #3784 (permalink)  
 
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Parapunter:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitter2
The Brexit negotiators in Brussels have made it clear that the 'backstop' keeps the UK in the single market and customs union until the UK agrees a trade deal which keeps us in the single market and customs union
Wrong, wrong, wrongity wrong. Everything you subsequently build on a false opening gambit must be disregarded. If you're unable to grasp even the basics of this, then you are just one more selectively thinking unreliable automaton whose opinions are as valuable as the last. qv. Weemonkey, Andrewn.
Dear PP. I understand you vehemently disagree. Please explain to the simple minded how the UK exits the backstop, which requires the consent of the EU, which in turn requires no customs border between the two countries which share a border in the island of Ireland?
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:41
  #3785 (permalink)  
 
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Lie? Are you disputing that a no-deal Brexit would be extremely unwelcome for German carmakers (and us)?
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:48
  #3786 (permalink)  
 
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From t**tter.../MSM in the U.K:

Mujtaba Rehman, a former European commission official who produces well-informed Brexit analysis for the Eurasia Group consultancy, sent out his latest take this morning. He thinks there is little chance of Theresa May getting the change to the backstop she wants. Here is an excerpt.

<<There is, however, little prospect of May winning the “significant and legally-binding change” to the backstop she has vowed to seek, as the strong reaction from the EU has already shown. This is especially as European council President Donald Tusk is extremely cautious. The strength of his language suggests this was a very carefully co-ordinated, considered and pre-negotiated statement, which carries the full weight of the council, particularly its more important members.

The EU’s unwillingness to reopen the withdrawal agreement—a hardening of its position from just a few weeks ago—is not simply because it has serious reservations about May’s strategy (is the problem really the backstop?) and her credibility as their interlocutor (can she deliver parliament?)

It is also borne out of a belief that the ticking clock could actually reinforce dysfunctional behaviour among MPs—as opposed to encouraging more co-operation. One lead negotiator contemplates the incentives of the various constituencies in the Commons: If the European Research Group (ERG) believe no deal is credibly within grasp, why would they settle for changes to the backstop? Why would Labour not be tempted by the desire to blame a botched Brexit on the government?

The perception in Brussels is therefore that the situation in Westminster is far from the stable. “We need to be able to make a rock-solid calculation that if we move, this will do it. But if you analyse what’s behind Brady it’s clear we’ll simply be opening a can of worms.” Another senior negotiator concurs, “May can come to Brussels and we could work something out. But once she’s back on a plane to London we’ll have no idea whether it will work.>>”
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:48
  #3787 (permalink)  
 
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The backstop - and I can't say this enough - is a UK construct. It has nothing to do with the European union, it was created by Theresa May as a means of avoiding a hard border which in turn was a consequence of the red lines she created in the wake of the referendum.

The UK is under no obligation to implement a backstop, remain in a customs union, single market or anything else. If you wish to leave the existing customs union & become a third country, then you must erect a border unless you come to a different solution. There is no different solution because the Prime minister blithely created an insoluble problem.

Therefore, you are wholly wrong in punting the idea that the EU are holding us hostage by insisting we sign some future trade deal that keeps us in the cu & sm. You are, just for a change with your alternative universe leaver pals, making naked attempts to blame the European union for a situation created wholly & entirely and ONLY by the United Kingdom.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:55
  #3788 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Lie? Are you disputing that a no-deal Brexit would be extremely unwelcome for German carmakers (and us)?
For them, yep. Certainly to the extent thicky old gammons like Digby sodding Jones punts it around. Even Germany is only 12% of BMW sales, UK 9.8, Italy & France ~ 3.5 each, China 25% They'll take it on the chin, go after Asia harder. Meanwhile, the UK will be working out how to import basic foodstuffs, medicines, all the rest of it. And incredible that after two years of intense debate, leavers STILL think BMW will be twisting Merkel's arm, begging 1 out of 27 to fly over the others heads & do some magical deal.

Easy to forget how unnecessary this all is.

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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:55
  #3789 (permalink)  
 
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The backstop - and I can't say this enough - is a UK construct. It has nothing to do with the European union, it was created by Theresa May as a means of avoiding a hard border which in turn was a consequence of the red lines she created in the wake of the referendum
You are welcome to your opinion. You can't have your own facts. If it is a UK construct, why do the EU demand it to be immovable? The EU say it is essenstial to avoid a 'hard border'. Both the UK and the ROI have said that, even in the event of no deal there will not be a hard border. Why then, do the EU demand it ust be included?
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:56
  #3790 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Lie? Are you disputing that a no-deal Brexit would be extremely unwelcome for German carmakers (and us)?
No. But, based on Digby Jones' crude economics, in a Brexiteer's dreamworld it is 150 times more unwelcome than in reality. Which makes a significant difference when it comes to negotiations and making assumptions about the leverage you and your counterpart have.

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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:57
  #3791 (permalink)  
 
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ShotOne,

Unwelcome for German carmakers, terminal for UK car production by those German car makers.

Perhaps the lie element was claiming that a factory employing 7,000 staff was going to suffer 30,000 redundancies as 9.8% of its market is under threat?

Last edited by pr00ne; 30th Jan 2019 at 12:03.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 10:59
  #3792 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Lie? Are you disputing that a no-deal Brexit would be extremely unwelcome for German carmakers (and us)?
It may be unwelcome but not extremely unwelcome. Brits will always buy German cars they will only become a bit more expensive. As the Brits love to buy a car on personal lease then a few quid on top of their monthly payments will not make a big difference. Would people still be buying cars outright then it might have been a bigger issueas the increased cost were better visible.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 11:04
  #3793 (permalink)  
 
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Meanwhile

https://www.msn.com/g00/en-gb/news/u...Xdz&i10c.dv=17
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 11:10
  #3794 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
You are welcome to your opinion. You can't have your own facts. If it is a UK construct, why do the EU demand it to be immovable? The EU say it is essenstial to avoid a 'hard border'. Both the UK and the ROI have said that, even in the event of no deal there will not be a hard border. Why then, do the EU demand it ust be included?
No they haven't. The UK & ROI have expressed a desire to have no hard border. If the UK leaves without agreement, then a hard border must be implemented. Seems I'm not entitled to my own facts but you are.

The backstop is a guarantee of regulatory alignment between the UK & the EU. If you remove it, it is no longer a guarantee. If the EU no longer has a guarantee along it's border, then the only way to ensure a flow of permissible goods into the EU is by creating a border.

I would remind you there is no country in the world operating an open border between customs territories. You can look, but you won't find one. I would further remind you that having agreed to a backstop in the withdrawal agreement, the UK has now reneged & must be looked upon as an unreliable partner by the European union. And I use the words 'unreliable' in place of the equally acceptable ' pack of f******g clowns'.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 11:11
  #3795 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
You are welcome to your opinion. You can't have your own facts. If it is a UK construct, why do the EU demand it to be immovable? The EU say it is essenstial to avoid a 'hard border'. Both the UK and the ROI have said that, even in the event of no deal there will not be a hard border. Why then, do the EU demand it ust be included?
Not very difficult. What the UK says does not really matter in this context. And as far as the RoI point of view is concerned, neither the PM nor the Foreign Secretary have said there will be no hard border. They have said they want to avoid a hard border. The Foreign Secretary for exmaple said " “In the absence of the backstop and a withdrawal agreement, we have a very difficult job to do to prevent border infrastructure, but of course that would have to be our focus." And the PM said: " We’d have to negotiate an agreement on customs and regulations that meant full alignment, so there will be no hard border.” That means EU customs and EU regulations. If the RoI wants no hard border in the absence of such an agreement, they would have to leave the EU. Anything short of the UK agreeing that Northern Ireland remains, border-wise, within the EU (and depending on the set-up the UK chooses to guarantee that, it would also impact E&W and Scotland) will not suffice. Every border of the EU with a non-EU member is, per definition, a hard border unless there is some sort of treaty that aligns this country with certain EU rules. I don't think this is too difficult to understand. It is the RoI choice to have a hard border or not and it is the UK's choice to have a hard border or not. Whatever choice you make determines the set-up and EU membership.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 11:32
  #3796 (permalink)  
 
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Parpunter, for a 'Floppy' you continue to makes sense and are absolutely spot on.

Regards, a 'Stiffy'.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 11:37
  #3797 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post


Seconded....
Here, here!
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 11:38
  #3798 (permalink)  
 
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CEJM,
Agree, while a possible price hike of up to 14% would not be appreciated, it will not kill off sales entirely. What will be extremely unwelcome will be BMW and Volkswagen's reaction with their UK manufacturing plants, Cowley, Goodwood, Swindon, Hams Hall and Crewe could all be facing a very bleak future, so that's over 15,000 jobs plus untold numbers in the associated supply chains. That will be a very painful result of taking back control and sovereignty....
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 11:38
  #3799 (permalink)  
 
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Long retired, alas. Odd you should bring it up, I've found myself missing it lately & watching lots of you tube vids of epic flights but I don't think I'll be going back to it, I'm fully into mountain biking these days for reasons I can't quite articulate.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 11:43
  #3800 (permalink)  
 
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Likewise, the bike and learning an instument take up my time when the garden has had enough. Good times though.
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