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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 30th Jan 2019, 06:42
  #3741 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
Genuinely believe if a no-deal hard brexit comes about that it was deliberately engineered that way - even that sounds more convincing than the inept circus I keep reading about daily - where farce reaches such heights that even John Crace can't keep up, totally unbelievable.
Well the future of the Government and the Tory party is far more important than the future of the county, isn't it ?
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 06:58
  #3742 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
No further questions, your honour.
Sure, but it's not as simple as that, is it? And it's that kind of superiority complex that helped get us to where we are now.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:08
  #3743 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Sure, but it's not as simple as that, is it? And it's that kind of superiority complex that helped get us to where we are now.
Whatever you perceive as this or that complex has no bearing on any of this. On the other hand, if you're willing to publicly undermine your own confected imaginary future, you deserve to have sunlight poured on it, especially as you were in here last night crowing at remainers.

I suspect you'll now be telling anyone who will listen that the EU will do an about face because, much egged on by the media, everyone knows they always do deals at the 11th hour. In doing this, you'll be operating selectively, as leavers always do, overlooking that the EU operates cohesively to preserve it's integrity & willingly does the opposite with external partners, they even did this with the TTIP, but sure they'll change the four pillars for us,

Oh, by way of a decent example of what you can expect in the near future, if you're in the vanishingly small subset of Brexiteers who also speak German, you probably won't like this.



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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:14
  #3744 (permalink)  
 
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As one of the members of the EU's Brexit Steering Committee put it this morning:

"If we have to choose between a hard brexit or a no backstop deal, we will pick the lesser of two evils - hard brexit."

He also put forward a very good question to the Brexiteers: "Would you be willing to accept that while there will be no longer be freedom of movement, the UK will not have border controls to enforce it?" Because that's exactly what the UK government expects from the EU when demanding to do away with the backstop.

And then we have the Rt Hon Under-Secretary of State at the Department for Exiting the European Union Kwasi Kwartent making a fool of himself this morning on the telly suggesting that the EU will bend over backwards to accept "alternative arrangements" with regard to the backstop issue - without being able to name a single possible "alternative arrangement" and spluttering that these "alternative arrangements" will be subject of the negotiations with the EU. Which pretty much amounts to "we don't have any ideas what alternative arrangements could replace the backstop, but EU, please, can you come up with some"? And to make this completely farcical, the backstop agreement already contains a provision that allows for it to be replaced with alternative arrangements if any such arrangements are workable in the future. Which means there are non available at this point because otherwise there would not have been the backstop agreement in the first place. What a ship of fools.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:18
  #3745 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Yes it's been a farce, May has been inept from day 1 and Corbyn has been almost invisible, just basically a bystander making no attempt to influence proceedings.
Agreed ( on both points).

But why pretend the EU has this God given right to just stuff it to us?
By "stuff us" ( the UK) do you mean expect the EU expecting the UK to stick by a Withdrawal Agreement that TM had signed and which she was willing to take to the HoC in it's original form about weeks ago?

Nobody (very few sensible people anyway) wants no deal, but the EU has it's part to play as well, in my opinion.
It's played it's part by it's negoitators spending over two years trying to work out what the UK/TM/ and intellectual heavyweights such as DD need in the way of an agreement...that has been far from clear what exactly the UK wants out of all this , all we seem to keep hearing is TM and others forever yelling what they don't want.

Don't forget ( as Crace and other commentators have noted) what happened last night was TM went into the HoC and actually voted against her own plan A., she didn't even have the decency to abstain,...What sort of signal does that send to the world about doing business and making agreements with the UK?...

If the "EU playing it's part" is code for "giving the UK exactly what it want's" sadly the UK is going to end up very disappointed, and it will be a "No deal"

As I posted last night I suspect that is exactly what some on the Right wing of the Tory party very much want and is what they are aiming for. There will be lots window dressing over "TM getting tough with the EU in stating her demands in continued negotiations", , but behind the scenes I'm sure preparations are being made to make darned sure that as far as the MSM is concerned it will be the EU gets the blame if the **** hits the fan at the end of March.

Unless some in Westminster grow a spine, and start thinking less about their Party and careers and more about the state of the nation the UK is going out with a No Deal...and it will be very very messy for lots of people.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:20
  #3746 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
I suspect you'll now be telling anyone who will listen that the EU will do an about face because, much egged on by the media, everyone knows they always do deals at the 11th hour. In doing this, you'll be operating selectively, as leavers always do, overlooking that the EU operates cohesively to preserve it's integrity & willingly does the opposite with external partners, they even did this with the TTIP, but sure they'll change the four pillars for us,
Theresa May should talk to Yanis Varoufakis how red lines work in the negotiations with the EU. And should take into acocunt that Varoufakis at least had more to offer in negotiaitons than the toddler-like "we don't want what's on the table but regrettably can't say what we want instead".

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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:23
  #3747 (permalink)  
 
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:27
  #3748 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
Whatever you perceive as this or that complex has no bearing on any of this. On the other hand, if you're willing to publicly undermine your own confected imaginary future, you deserve to have sunlight poured on it, especially as you were in here last night crowing at remainers.

I suspect you'll now be telling anyone who will listen that the EU will do an about face because, much egged on by the media, everyone knows they always do deals at the 11th hour. In doing this, you'll be operating selectively, as leavers always do, overlooking that the EU operates cohesively to preserve it's integrity & willingly does the opposite with external partners, they even did this with the TTIP, but sure they'll change the four pillars for us,

Oh, by way of a decent example of what you can expect in the near future, if you're in the vanishingly small subset of Brexiteers who also speak German, you probably won't like this.


That's a pretty clear, and not entirely surprising. Spain sees an opportunity in the UK's incompetence to get something for them as regards Gibraltar. (and no, i haven't had to resort to Google translate!).

I really don't know what UK MPs fail to understand about the backstop not being negotiable. We (the UK) have been told on numerous occasions, in our own language, it is not negotiable - for all the good it has done they may just as well have told us in Magyar. May has hoodwinked the Tory party (who are clearly easily hoodwinked it appears) and they will be furious, and just as rebellious when she returns empty handed.

2 weeks down the road, can having been kicked, we will hopefully have another chance to pause this whole sorry affair, whilst a more pragmatic approach is adopted. However, the EU is unlikely to afford us this extra time if it's just to kick a rusty, bent can further down the road in the name of preserving the unity of both our major political parties. It's looking at the moment like, referendum, election or crash out.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:41
  #3749 (permalink)  
 
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What the British public (and their MPs) need to realise is that it is not the UK versus the EU, but the UK versus 27 European nations that have spent much time and effort agreeing a joint negotiating position. They are hardly likely to change much in the face of the UK's latest vague requests. As a Brit living in Europe I am embarrassed by my country and dispair at the way it is being handled by the rabble in the House of Commons. Hubris personified!!
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:44
  #3750 (permalink)  
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Next debate is 14th Feb, the date beyond which, if an election is agreed, parliament will be prorogued/dissolved on 29th March.......

Meanwhile, the true opinion and wishes of JC can be read between the lines from this excerpt from POLITICO:

WHERE LABOUR IS AT

NOT A HAPPY SHIP: Remain-supporting Labour MPs and staffers were furious last night at their colleagues who refused to back Yvette Cooper’s amendment that would have delayed Brexit to avoid a no deal. A visibly angry Chuka Umunna told Sky News he was “deeply, deeply disappointed” and attacked fellow MPs who had opposed the measure. “It has robbed parliament of the opportunity to prevent that no deal,” he said. “I’m really angry.” Another Labour MP, who would not speak on the record, told POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson there should be “f*cking consequences” for those who voted against. But the MP said they suspected the rebels had been given a “nod and a wink” by the leadership that it would be OK to defy the party whip.

Pointing the finger: Labour’s MEP leader Richard Corbett went further, taking to twitter to publicly list the names of “disgraceful” Labour MPs who “came to the rescue” of the government. He in turn was taken to task by suspended Labour MP John Woodcock, who told him: “I think you need to reflect, Richard. We were on the same side, but only fools believe they have a monopoly on wisdom in these circumstances. We should certainly be above making Corbynista-style hate lists of colleagues.” But by that point the social media hate mob had already piled in.

Brady’s bunch — the usual suspects: Seven Brexit-backing Labour MPs (Ian Austin, Kevin Barron, Jim Fitzpatrick, Roger Godsiff, Kate Hoey, John Mann and Graham Stringer) plus two ex-Labour MPs (Frank Field and Kelvin Hopkins) voted in favor of the Brady amendment. May won the vote by 317 votes to 301 — a majority of 16. So had all of the above voted against the Tory government, the PM would have lost the big vote.

Cooper’s poopers — the ones to watch: The same hardline seven Labour Brexiteers also voted against the Cooper amendment, along with seven extra rebels. This group of 14 were again decisive, with the amendment defeated by 321 votes to 298 — a majority of 23. The additional seven rebels (Ronnie Campbell, Rosie Cooper, Caroline Flint, Stephen Hepburn, Dennis Skinner, Gareth Snell and Laura Smith) all represent Leave-supporting towns in the Midlands and the North. Interestingly, the voting record shows a further 11 Labour MPs abstained on the Cooper vote — Tracy Brabin, Judith Cummins, Gloria De Piero, Yvonne Fovargue, Mike Kane, Emma Lewell-Buck, Jim McMahon, Melanie Onn, Ruth Smeeth, John Spellar and Stephen Twigg. (A 12th, Paul Flynn, is off sick.)

Minor plot line: The majority of this final group of Labour abstainers — who again, are mostly from Leave-supporting towns — are junior members of Jeremy Corbyn’s front bench. The leader’s office refused to say last night if they will be sacked for disobeying the party whip, and you can expect questions on that today at Labour’s post-PMQs lobby briefing. But the answer, it’s safe to assume, is that they will not. The truth is there is plenty of sympathy in Labour high ranks for MPs in Leave-supporting seats who are trying desperately to maintain Labour’s fragile Brexit balance.

Why this all matters: This group of Labour rebels could have a big role to play in the weeks ahead. With 14 Labour MPs and two ex-Labour MPs voting against delaying Brexit, and another 11 abstaining, the Tory whips now know they have a hardcore of 27 left-wingers who might ultimately help get some sort of deal over the line. That’s a similar-ish number to estimates of the absolute hardcore of Tory Brexiteers who will probably vote against the PM’s rejigged deal, come what may. Which is why the government whips believe that if the PM can do enough to win over the DUP and the softer Tory Euroskeptics, they still have a fighting chance.

Spotted: Labour rebel MP Caroline Flint chatting to Tory Chief Whip Julian Smith outside the Smoking Room last night.

Footnote: These numbers also confirm, as the New Statesman’s Peter Bush points out, that it’s very hard to see a path to a second referendum. He writes: “Frankly, if there is not a majority to be found at this stage even for extending the Article 50 process due to concerns about the impact at a constituency level, there is not going to be a majority for a second referendum even as the prospect of a no-deal exit hoves into view.”.........




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Old 30th Jan 2019, 07:46
  #3751 (permalink)  
 
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It is quite entertaining to listen to some interviews with EU folks in Brussels. While they try to keep as polite as possible, you hear words like "Brexit Wonderland", "farcical", "chaotic", "shambolic" and "clueless", accompanied by some shrugging of shoulder and shaking of heads.

Realistically, the EU will by now be impatiently counting down the days until they get rid off the UK government.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:16
  #3752 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by zoigberg View Post



i think he explains his reasoning behind the assymetry in pages 11 to 14 quite well. Hence the whole document is worth a good read. Regarding your quote which may or may not be a quote, he was on the record as suggesting the EU might be looking for 40 to 60 billion Euros, but that was in the context of using our debt to them as leverage in negotiations, since our leaving gives them a financial black hole
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandy_...ies_(1964).jpg
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:16
  #3753 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
That's a pretty clear, and not entirely surprising. Spain sees an opportunity in the UK's incompetence to get something for them as regards Gibraltar. (and no, i haven't had to resort to Google translate!).
As I said yesterday before this came up, Spain hasn't forgotten Gibraltar. When an EU member has a territorial dispute with a non-member, which country will the EU be obliged to support in any legal way it can?
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:22
  #3754 (permalink)  
 
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They can shake their heads all they like. It takes two parties to agree a deal. If itís unacceptable to one side, there isnít one.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:23
  #3755 (permalink)  
 
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Part of the problem was underlined in yesterday's debate after the Father of The House offered words of support for an MP who had crossed the sea from the Island of Ireland to take part. How pathetic to hear an Irish woman, with a thick Irish accent, complain that she is not Irish but a "British member of this house".

There you have it. British. UK citizen. Little Englander. Any more for any more? Ulster person. Saint Helenan.

For those members of the far flung empire lumbered with a British passport. Identified by proxy as citizens of a (British) cultue which is foreign to them. Being dragged over the cliff by a process in which they had no vote, and seeing residents on the Island of Ireland (who may or may not take advantage of dual nationality) demand special treatment from London, is sickening.

Last edited by sfm818; 30th Jan 2019 at 10:39.
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:27
  #3756 (permalink)  
 
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When an EU member has a territorial dispute with a non-member, which country will the EU be obliged to support in any legal way it can?
That's an interesting question, made more interesting by the legal status of Gibraltar which was ceded to the UK by a legally binding treaty.
So, the EU would be faced with a dilemma; "Gibraltar is legally a UK territory but, on the other hand, Spain is our mate. So do we stick by our mate and ignore the legality or vice versa?"
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:28
  #3757 (permalink)  
 
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The Brexit negotiators in Brussels have made it clear that the 'backstop' keeps the UK in the single market and customs union until the UK agrees a trade deal which keeps us in the single market and customs union - unable to negotiate independant trade agreements, under all EU regulation and unable to have any influence over those regulations. The UK would also be obliged to offer free access to UK markets to any country to which the EU signs a free trade agreement, but without reciprocal access to the other third-party country's markets. The Belgian EU Brexit team member interviewed on Radio 4 this morning made it clear that the integrity of the single market was of overriding importance, and any damage to the EU resulting from a no-deal exit was worth the pain, compared to a sensible border arrangement for NI and ROI. Why May thought the 'backstop' lock in to the single market and customs union would be acceptable is a mystery, maybe by burying it on page 63 of the 'agreement' then MPs might fall asleep before reaching it.

Both UK and ROI have made it clear that there will not be a hard border in the event of no deal. The EU have deliberately manoeuvred the UK into a position of a lock in to the single market, or no deal. They may not get what they wish for.

Watching the TV program on Monday of the recent history of the EU/UK discussions, and listening to the EU people interviewed, my wife (up to now a mild remain supporter) said 'They just don't get it, do they' of the arrogance of the EU that they know what is best for us, and we are stupid not to see it. She will support leave with no deal if it comes to a second referendum.

(By the way, I get irritated with the BBC having adopted the 'Peoples Vote title for a second referendum - language matters.)
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:28
  #3758 (permalink)  
 
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Shamelessly lifted from my local town forum ( with thanks to Maxi) -
" BREXIT EXPLAINED
David Cameron made a promise he didn't think he'd have to keep to have a referendum he didn't think he would lose.

Boris Johnson decided to back the side he didn't believe in because he didn't think it would win. Then Gove, who said he wouldn't run, did, and Boris who said he would run, said he wouldn't, and Theresa May who didn't vote for Brexit got the job of making it happen.

She called the election she said she wouldn't and lost the majority David Cameron hadn't expected to win in the first place. She triggered Article 50 when we didn't need to and said we would talk about trade at the same time as the divorce deal and the EU said they wouldn't so we didn't.

People thought she wouldn't get the divorce settled but she did, but only by agreeing to separate arrangements for Northern Ireland when she had promised the DUP she wouldn't.

Then the Cabinet agreed a deal but they hadn't, and David Davis who was Brexit Secretary but wasn't said it wasn't what people had voted for and he couldn't support what he had just supported and left.

Boris Johnson who hadn't left then wished that he had and did, but it was a bit late for that.

Dominic Raab became the new Brexit secretary.

People thought Theresa May wouldn't get a withdrawal agreement negotiated, but once she had they wished that she hadn't, because hardly anybody liked it whether they wanted to leave or not.

Jacob Rees-Mogg kept threatening a vote of no confidence in her but not enough people were confident enough people would not have confidence in her to confidently call a no confidence vote.

Dominic Raab said he hadn't really been Brexit Secretary either and resigned, and somebody else took the job but it probably isn't worth remembering who they are as they're not really doing the job either as Olly Robbins is.

Then she said she would call a vote and didn't, that she wouldn't release some legal advice but had to, that she would get some concessions but didn't, and got cross that Juncker was calling her nebulous when he wasn't but probably should have been.

At some point Jacob Rees Mogg and others called a vote of no confidence in her, which she won by promising to leave, so she can stay. But they said she had really lost it and should go, at the same time as saying that people who voted Leave knew what they were voting for which they couldn't possibly have because we still don't know now, and that we should leave the vote to Leave vote alone but have no confidence in the no confidence vote which won by more.

The government also argued in court against us being able to say we didn't want to leave after all but it turned out we could.

She named a date for the vote on her agreement which nobody expected to pass, while pretending that no deal which nobody wants is still possible (even though we know we can just say we are not leaving), and that we can't have a second referendum because having a democratic vote is undemocratic. And of course as expected she loses.

Some people are talking about a managed no-deal which is not a deal but is not no-deal either.

Thank goodness for strong and stable government. "
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:33
  #3759 (permalink)  
 
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About Gib. BBC NEWS | Europe | Gibraltar and other empire leftovers
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Old 30th Jan 2019, 08:37
  #3760 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
The Brexit negotiators in Brussels have made it clear that the 'backstop' keeps the UK in the single market and customs union until the UK agrees a trade deal which keeps us in the single market and customs union
Wrong, wrong, wrongity wrong. Everything you subsequently build on a false opening gambit must be disregarded. If you're unable to grasp even the basics of this, then you are just one more selectively thinking unreliable automaton whose opinions are as valuable as the last. qv. Weemonkey, Andrewn.
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