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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 19th Jan 2019, 23:39
  #3141 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Economics101 View Post
Given the "failing Grayling" had awarded a contract to a shipping company with no ships, maybe said company had to resort to desperate measures to acquire one.
But owned by a fella who donates huge amounts of dosh to the tory coffers....
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 04:16
  #3142 (permalink)  
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A fable for our times....

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-cartoon
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 08:10
  #3143 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
Should there be too many children for the social system to maintain do what the left wing Socialists do: Impose a one-child policy.

It sorted China's problems for a few decades.
To prevent massive catastrophe(s), we need to drastically reduce Our Global Population. We do not have enough resources on Our Earth to support all of us presently. I suggest a goal of 1Billion population. One child per person would reduce Our Population slowly. One child per couple would reduce it much faster...

If we don't control Our Population rationally, Nature will control it, and it will be NOT VERY NICE!!!
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 09:01
  #3144 (permalink)  
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One billion. Crikey, how long will that take?
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 10:09
  #3145 (permalink)  
 
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Assuming the World's population reduces by one third every seventy years, approximately 420. That's assuming that people die off at an average of seventy. Should we keep going as we are now it would reach 40 billion over the same period
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 10:24
  #3146 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
Should we keep going as we are now it would reach 40 billion over the same period
Not according to the Peak Child man, Hans Rosling.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 11:01
  #3147 (permalink)  
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If we don't control Our Population rationally, Nature will control it, and it will be NOT VERY NICE!!!
Don’t tell us, we’re already below the replacement level, tell the Africans.....

https://www.ft.com/content/d54e4fe8-...f-23cb17fd1498

Highest fertility rates in Europe still below ‘replenishment level’

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Old 20th Jan 2019, 11:30
  #3148 (permalink)  
 
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Certain countries lack of pumping out of kids is a large part for why the EU has gone the way it has.

Its not quiet worked out the way they expected to though as most seem to want to go to the country which is pumping out the kids adequately to maintain its working population. Leaving the extremely strong key economy a bit screwed in the next 15 years.

And this Brexit saga getting extended etc is just going to waste time for them to get it sorted.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 11:44
  #3149 (permalink)  
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The Telegraph today has a spreadsheet showing the possible Brexit options open to parliament. It starts with the planned Boles/Cooper Act which will, apparently, be presented after the next debate on 29th Jan and will, apparently, state that if the government has not reched an acceptable deal with the EU by the end of February, then they will be forced to ask the EU for A50 to be suspended.

The mathematics behind this seem flawed. See my calculations below.

The Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 lays down that the length of an electoral campaign, between the dissolution of Parliament and the poll, must be a minumum of 25 working days.

The Fixed Term Parliament Act lays down that If the NoC passes a vote of no confidence in the government then an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently passes a vote of confidence within the next 14 days. (no second vote is required, just that one is not passed).

Working on on the basis that Labour has said its first priority is another election and it is still, according to JC, a Brexit party, we can assume they would not join with all other parties and Conservative rebels to try and form a minority government and pass such a vote.

Brexit day is Friday 29th March. Assuming an election is held on 28th March then the successful candidates would not be sworn in until the following Tuesday, so let us take that as a target date.

Working backwards 25 working days from 28th Mar takes us to Thur 21st February for latest date the election could be called with zero time for discussion, delay etc. Going back a further 14 days takes us to a vote of no confidence being held on Thur 7th Feb.

Assuming debate and passage of the Cooper Act through 3 readings in both the HoC and HoL in 6 working days (a practical impossibility as Brexiteers debate each stage would prevent that possibility). Then TM would will inevitably have the option of forcing an election and having Brexit occur by default.

Doubtless much to to the secret delight of Jeremy.....

Last edited by ORAC; 20th Jan 2019 at 11:58.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 12:10
  #3150 (permalink)  
 
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That's what I have been saying since before Christmas.

The calling of the confidence vote was a little bit surprising the other day. But the pro exit Torys had obviously done the same maths and calculated it was to soon to ensure a default exit. So they voted with the Government.

As soon as its inside the time frame for default exit during recess for GE then they might change sides and vote the government down and require Labour MP's to go against Corybn to prevent a default exit. it only takes 10 of them to do this.

It really doesn't matter what they manage to get through parliament to make it law that's illegal for the government to exit no deal. If the parliament is in recess, there is no government and no way of it preventing default exit. So default exit it is.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 12:48
  #3151 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Not according to the Peak Child man, Hans Rosling.
who said . . . ?
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 13:33
  #3152 (permalink)  
 
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Here's a thought.

I can't recall hearing that the European Parliament has approved the EU / UK deal yet - I guess that the UK news media with it's penchant for ignoring the European Parliament unless Farage is making a fool of himself this might have passed me by. However there don't appear to me many moves on behalf of the 27 individual nations to ratify the agreement, which they also have to do; presumably because they aren't going to waste their own parliamentary time until the UK has sorted itself out.

This could result in a rather bizarre situation where the UK leaves by default on 29th March, because we stupidly wrote that date into law; whilst the EU has to continue as though we're still in!! I guess they must pretty comfortable with the concept that at some stage the UK will ask to hit the pause button, otherwise, for different reasons from the usual ones, and from the other side, Brexit could become a mess whatever the UK does, or doesn't do.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 13:37
  #3153 (permalink)  
 
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Well since the UK itself hasn't a clue how we are approaching the deadline, how can anyone else make definite plans?
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 13:40
  #3154 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
who said . . . ?
A load of economic analysis which said that we have now reached "peak child" - the number of children in the world is no longer increasing, the overall population will continue to increase as existing children and young people grow up and as people in general live longer, but with the production rate remaining stable the population will in due course stabilise. There are some videoed lectures.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 13:46
  #3155 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post

This could result in a rather bizarre situation where the UK leaves by default on 29th March, because we stupidly wrote that date into law;
How was it stupid? - Article 50 mandates a 2 year timeframe. If we had done anything else we would have been in violation of A50.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 13:52
  #3156 (permalink)  
 
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I think I read somewhere that they had been asked to give something to the head of these things giving there acceptance of the deal. If that is a "postal" vote for when they put it through or they all have to walk in a chamber for 5 mins, I have no clue.

I guess they must pretty comfortable with the concept that at some stage the UK will ask to hit the pause button, otherwise, for different reasons from the usual ones, and from the other side, Brexit could become a mess whatever the UK does, or doesn't do.
I don't think comfortable is the right word. Praying for divine input that a no deal exit doesn't occur on the date I think would be nearer the mark. They don't really care how its accomplished be it extension or cancelling. Just they don't want to loose control over the UK just before a likely recession starting this summer.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 13:57
  #3157 (permalink)  
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As the technically advanced populations have declining birth rates and the less advanced and manual working populations continue with preindustrial birth rates will we have a corresponding decline in GDP? (G=Global).

A similar situation as with our aging expensive population being supported by a smaller work force.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 14:04
  #3158 (permalink)  
 
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Some countries are doing better than others even in the developed world.

Irish are still going at it like rabbits. UK and France are just increasing slightly how much of that is immigration nobody seems to have a clue. Germany its going to be one working person supporting two OAP's in 20 years time.

Hence the rush to get the EU super state sorted out.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 14:08
  #3159 (permalink)  
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If the parliament is in recess, there is no government
No parliament, but there is a government.

MPs cease to be MPs at the moment parliament prorogues and become ordinary citizens like the rest of us. They can enter the HoC but under strict rules.

The PM and Ministers of State, appointed by the Queen, remain in office to maintain the continuity of government.

What happens to the Government when Parliament is dissolved?

Parliament and Government are two separate institutions. The Government does not resign when Parliament is dissolved. Government ministers remain in charge of their departments until after the result of the election is known and a new administration is formed.

The Prime Minister is appointed by the Sovereign. Ministers are appointed by the Sovereign on the advice of the Prime Minister. These appointments are independent of the role of MP. Ministers retain their ministerial titles after dissolution, but those who were MPs can no longer use the MP suffix. The Cabinet Manual sets out the main laws, rules and conventions affecting the conduct and operation of government.

Government Decisions
  1. During an election campaign the Government retains its responsibility to govern and Ministers remain in charge of their departments. Essential business must be carried on. In particular Cabinet Committees can continue to meet and consider correspondence if necessary, although in practice this may not be practical. If something requires urgent collective consideration, the Cabinet Secretary should be consulted.
  2. However, it is customary for Ministers to observe discretion in initiating any action of a continuing or long term character. Decisions on matters of policy, and other issues such as large and/or contentious commercial contracts, on which a new government might be expected to want the opportunity to take a different view from the present government, should be postponed until after the election, provided that such postponement would not be detrimental to the national interest or wasteful of public money.
Statutory Instruments
  1. The principles outlined above apply to making statutory instruments. Departmental lawyers can advise in more detail, in conjunction with the Statutory Instrument Hub.
  2. The general principle that Ministers should observe discretion in initiating any new action of a continuing or long term character applies to the making of commencement orders, which during the election period should be exceptional.
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Old 20th Jan 2019, 14:28
  #3160 (permalink)  
 
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You can't get an act of parliament through without the house sitting and no MP's to vote on it. Which would be required to cancel (thanks to Gina) or to kill the current act that specifies the leaving date.
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