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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 17th Jan 2019, 14:34
  #3021 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Sunny Sussex
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Fair enough. I was at pains to point out it wasn't mine, never thought to credit it.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 14:35
  #3022 (permalink)  
 
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“Election..proper government in power..” What kind of Brexit (if any!) would that achieve? Even now we can only guess.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:07
  #3023 (permalink)  
 
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just had a quick browse of the EU stats sites to see what the vomiting tourists give to Spain.

Total for 2016 is 58.9 billion euros expenditure. And the UK market is 25% of the total tourist trade.

GDP was 1122 billion so 58.9 is 5% of GDP. Of that the UK tourists are worth 1.3% of GDP.

The tourism industry accounts for 2.7 million jobs. so 0.675 million jobs hanging off UK tourists.

Current Spanish growth is 0.6% and 16% unemployment rate.

So 50% drop in UK piss heads kills the whole countries growth. They have other issues on top of that due steel prices crashing and America seeming to be wanting a trade war with everyone.

Even 10% drop in UK tourist traffic is going to create huge problems.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:08
  #3024 (permalink)  
 
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Far too much faith is being put in a GE to break the logjam. The most likely outcome by far is some kind of rehash of the 2017 result. Don't forget that Corbyn would have to declare his hand on Brexit, He simply would not be able to get away with his current prevarication. ( I don't blame him btw for not talking to May, Ste just wants to lecture him on how she is right)

We would probably see The Tories lose seats to the Lib Dems, 88 of their top 100 target seats are Tory held. The SNP would at least hold what they have and you would probably end up where we started, or worse.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:16
  #3025 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
just had a quick browse of the EU stats sites to see what the vomiting tourists give to Spain.
And your new point is?
Everyone on all sides has always accepted that Brexit will hurt the EU. But they are clearly prepared to take that hit and be rid of us.
If only Britain had some idea of what we were doing on our side.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:16
  #3026 (permalink)  
 
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...not forgetting the added detail that the most recent poll put Tories 6 points ahead
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:22
  #3027 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
And your new point is?
Not really making one is he? beyond the secret squirrel I have in the know tourist data I can't possibly show you but proves, without having to provide any evidence that the tour operators are shafted. Oh, hang on, it's an insinuation. He's insinuating the EU will quiver before the mighty UK & give us everything we want at the 11th hour. Just one more in a long line of Walter Mitty, alternative universe gibberish.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:29
  #3028 (permalink)  
 
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Alternative reality (to the Remoaner army here)

EU: Say what you want.?

UK: To leave the EU, with a reasonable trade deal that benefits both parties.

EU: You can't have that, others will want it. What do you want instead?

(Repeat ad infinitum)

That's worked for the EU since the Article 50 declaration, l don't see anything changing. If we have a second referendum and it produces the same result, do you demand a third one?
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:42
  #3029 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
Congratulations. You just disqualified Winston Churchill from becoming prime minister in 1940.
True, but it appears he only delayed Germany's plans of European dominance.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:46
  #3030 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
Alternative reality (to the Remoaner army here)

EU: Say what you want.?

UK: To leave the EU, with a reasonable trade deal that benefits both parties.

EU: You can't have that, others will want it. What do you want instead?

(Repeat ad infinitum)

That's worked for the EU since the Article 50 declaration, l don't see anything changing. If we have a second referendum and it produces the same result, do you demand a third one?
It's a delicious irony that your average leaver is making reference to trade deals in the context of disparaging the EU for where we are today, which they didn't cause, incidentally, when the entire constipated mess that we're in is about withdrawal. Trade deals are years in the future yet. But as usual, thanks for playing.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:46
  #3031 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
Alternative reality (to the Remoaner army here)

EU: Say what you want.?

UK: To leave the EU, with a reasonable trade deal that benefits both parties.

EU: You can't have that, others will want it. What do you want instead?

(Repeat ad infinitum)

That's worked for the EU since the Article 50 declaration, l don't see anything changing. If we have a second referendum and it produces the same result, do you demand a third one?
And what if the result goes the other way but by a tiny margin.
I know. Let's try 2 out of 3.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 15:51
  #3032 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
Alternative reality (to the Remoaner army here)

EU: Say what you want.?

UK: To leave the EU, with a reasonable trade deal that benefits both parties.

EU: You can't have that, others will want it. What do you want instead?

(Repeat ad infinitum)

That's worked for the EU since the Article 50 declaration, l don't see anything changing. If we have a second referendum and it produces the same result, do you demand a third one?
You're right of course. The EU never were, and never will, give us the sweet deal promised by Boris and company. It was always out of the question.

As for another referendum, I can understand the demand for one now that people can see a hard Brexit looming. But it's not going to happen.

As I've said from the start, first we'll have Brexit with no satisfactory deal and then a Labour government.. That was scoffed at then, not so much now. The bitterness is rising.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 16:00
  #3033 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
True, but it appears he only delayed Germany's plans of European dominance.
First we went into Europe to stop it.
Now we come out of Europe to encourage it.

Very sensible, well done
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 16:12
  #3034 (permalink)  
 
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And you wonder why we are in a mess, this pillock needs to go

Corbyn tells MPs not to speak to government

Sky News reporter Aubrey Allegretti has tweeted a letter from Jeremy Corbyn, in which the Labour leader urges MPs not to contact the government until the no-deal option is taken off the table.Mr Corbyn said he personally would not meet with Mrs May to talk about the future of Brexit until she ruled out the prospect of a "disastrous" no-deal exit.In his letter, he wrote: "The Prime Minister has offered to open talks with Opposition Parties, however, I have been absolutely clear that any starting point for talks about breaking the Brexit deadlock must be on the provision that the threat of a disastrous 'no deal' outcome is ruled out."He goes on to write: "I urge colleagues to respect that condition and refrain from engagement with the government until 'no deal' is taken off the table."Earlier today Labour MPs Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn, who chairs the Brexit select committee, went to speak to the government.

At least some of them appear have the sense to try to help sort it. They were all elected by the Country as a whole and have been given a mandate, not just one man, from some tiny part of London

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/46874049

Last edited by NutLoose; 17th Jan 2019 at 16:22.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 16:18
  #3035 (permalink)  
 
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its not a new point I have been saying it for over 2 years now.

I don't think the EU will quiver before the default exit. Its suicide if they do for other members leaving..... well maybe not the negative pull ones like Poland but then again they want polish workers in the free movement system otherwise the countries that don't breed enough will run out of working population in 15 years. Opps sorry it was 15 years two years ago when I started saying this its now down to 13 years and nothing has been done by the EU to sort the social integration out because of Brexit. And extending Brexit is just going to cause even more issues because it gives them even less time to sort it out.

Its not in the know tourist data, The EU publishes all the economic stuff on there stats site

https://ec.europa.eu/info/statistics_en

You will also find that 25% of all intra EU flights involve a UK pairing.

Do your own research instead of relying on the economic fiction writers. What better place to get your data than the entity that you want to stay with. Can hardly be called a unicorn brixshitter bias information site.

The EU post default exit has not a lot of options. Which is why they are putting maximum effort in to bluff it and hope there is enough public whinging that the UK cancels or agrees to some stupid agreement which still retains control over it in Brussels.

UK import market gone, at least 50% of the trade deals made over the last 15 years looking extremely doubtful, Canada being I suspect the first one to enter renegotiations. Kiss good bye to the one with Japan. Have a look at the EU provided Data on UK imports from Can, the total imports to EU. Then compare the exports for the same and then remove the UK from them. Its a bit of a f me change of numbers.

Yes they can keep to there high level red lines if they like, but you are talking 3-4 countries with complete Banking failure in September this year. And no UK to guarantee the loans to sort it out. By which point Germany will have had 2 quarters in recession along with 50% of the rest of the member states. Interest rates can't go any lower.

The economic issues don't change UK in or out. The last two years have done the damage already.

I can't see a GE changing a default exit anyway because its more than likely going to result in hung parliament and going to take weeks to sort out. And even if Corybn gets in he is going to go for a default exit anyway because being tied to the EU prevents him doing the major changes he wants to do.

Personally I think their arse will collapse within 4 weeks and some bull will be spouted to cover face and UK will get market access and all the other stuff with a few acceptable conditions on a temporary basis which will be longer than any extension anyway. Which will screw them anyway because they need the UK to become second world status otherwise others will escape.

God forbid the UK is stupid enough to suggest forming an alternative group of countries with common market and standards and none of the social integration bollocks. Wonder how many countries would go for that?

Not that any of that will stop remainers whinging.

Germany is stuffed in about 13-15 years time.... the worrying thing is... its pretty much the same timeline as the lead up to WW1 and WW2.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 16:26
  #3036 (permalink)  
 
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...not forgetting the added detail that the most recent poll put Tories 6 points ahead
Like the last ones before the election... 20 points ahead*... Labour were going to be slaughtered.. blairites were waiting and ready to cease back control.... gains of 100+ seats....

*Not all polls are appallingly inaccurate though, the YouGov and one other (I forget, think was Survation) that were using big data models with lots of back end neural jiggery got it correct within a few seats... that really demonstrated to me the sophistication of these new models. They are now the only polling companies I trust to be in the correct ball park. At the time how I recall the other polling companies laughing and calling them way out... even the YouGov boss said he didn't personally believe his poll result but had faith in the math and that was what mattered in the end.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 16:52
  #3037 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Dad, are we there yet?
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 16:57
  #3038 (permalink)  
 
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tesco I'm sorry but I just haven't the heart to keep following your ramblings.
Let's just wait and see who gets it right.
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 17:10
  #3039 (permalink)  
 
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And of course one can trust politicians when they make statements like all these.....

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-tw...oards-11609810

I particularly like the Liam Fox one-what an idiot that man is , the only useful thing he has ever done is to stop practising medicine
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Old 17th Jan 2019, 17:13
  #3040 (permalink)  
 
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Oh and today the EC launched a debate into removing members veto rights on tax. ie if the EC decides its the best way to go for the group no member can say no thanks.

That's fine Sally my ramblings have been pretty spot on over the last 2 years and as secondary bonus earned me a heap of cash.

Usual remain, go for the person instead of the argument. But your right it's going to make zero difference to what's going to happen. Those of us that have set our family's finances up for a default exit will be protected those that don't bother because they are 100% sure is impossible for a default exit to be contemplated will get shafted.

Such is life.
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