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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 9th Jan 2019, 21:22
  #2621 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Yes.

We don't yet know, until the Scottish case completes, whether the necessary process is a vote in parliament, or whether May can just sign a letter herself, or whether it would need to be an order in council, but assuming that the civil servants are not completely incompetent there will already be drafts of all three on file ready and waiting. Any or all of these processes could take place on March 29th.
I'm not convinced that the Scottish case could justifiably be imposed on the rest of the UK.

If the previous administration failed to prepare for the Leave vote in any way what makes you so sure this (widely acknowledged on JB) incompetent government would be making preparations?
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Old 9th Jan 2019, 21:24
  #2622 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Danny G View Post
I agree. I voted remain and am ashamed at the extent that some of my fellow remainers are going to in their attempt to deny they lost. Its always someone elses fault. Its either leavers are thick, racist they hate Europe or Putin bought it.

We lost, get over it and move on there are far more important things going on in this country at the moment.
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Old 9th Jan 2019, 21:39
  #2623 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
I'm not convinced that the Scottish case could justifiably be imposed on the rest of the UK.
I rather suspect that the lawyers who are running this show have thought of that one and know the answer.
Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
If the previous administration failed to prepare for the Leave vote in any way what makes you so sure this (widely acknowledged on JB) incompetent government would be making preparations?
Nothing at all makes me thing the government has been making any such preparations.

I think the civil servants have.

It's their day job to be able to say to ministers "here's one I prepared earlier" in the face of almost any conceivable contingency.
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Old 9th Jan 2019, 21:50
  #2624 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
I rather suspect that the lawyers who are running this show have thought of that one and know the answer.

Nothing at all makes me thing the government has been making any such preparations.

I think the civil servants have.

It's their day job to be able to say to ministers "here's one I prepared earlier" in the face of almost any conceivable contingency.

Sorry, there was also daistinct lack of of anything from the CS, and as for government lawyers knowing the answer I refer you to one Ms G Miller.
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Old 9th Jan 2019, 22:40
  #2625 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
Sorry, there was also daistinct lack of of anything from the CS, and as for government lawyers knowing the answer I refer you to one Ms G Miller.
(1) The CS had no preparations for #brexit immediately after the vote because they were explicitly ordered not to do their jobs and not come up with any. My expectation is that these days they're more concerned about their career positions than obeying obviously wrong dictats from politicians with a very short shelf life. But yes, you do have a point about the civil servants' past record, back when they were obeying instructions not to do their jobs properly.

(2) At no point have I suggested government lawyers have got anything right. I'm suggesting that the lawyers bringing the case know what they're about - if anyone disagreed with them about the jurisdiction of the Scottish courts this claim would have been made by now and, if correct, it would have been upheld. The fact that this hasn't happened does rather tend to indicate that everybody involved - the claimants, the government lawyers and the judges - all agree that the Scottish courts do have jurisdiction.
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Old 9th Jan 2019, 22:41
  #2626 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
That's as may be; none of them appreciated the mess that Brexit is getting the country into, and like everyone else, including the government they are entitled to change their minds and / or adapt their approach. This has nothing to do with not leaving the EU - Corbyn's stated policy is to soldier on with Brexit (unless of course he's talking to remainers!) after all.

Hmm, name one of these 'principled' MP's who was ever prepared to leave the SM and CU. Personally I'd lock them up for fraud.
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Old 9th Jan 2019, 23:21
  #2627 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
When you say preposterous, do you mean Russia couldn't have influenced voters or that they didn't try? I'm presuming you mean didn't try based on you saying there's no evidence but I''m curious to find out.
I honestly think they didn't try because in a geopolitical context both results have advantages and disadvantages, and weighing in is too risky based upon any perceived result. Though admittedly with Europe becoming continually weakened I would have thought that they (Russia) if anything would have influenced remain... as leave means a potentially much closer US alliance. Probably I have read too many Stratfor briefings recently though, mea culpa.

In the end though we'll never really know - we truly live in a post-truth world.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 02:21
  #2628 (permalink)  
 
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I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of Russian goals in their interference. Much more than any particular outcome (Leave/Remain, Trump/No Trump) - their primary goal is simply disruption, uproar, and mayhem in the "liberal democracies."

So that when their citizens look out and see what liberal democracy looks like, it looks like an extremely unappetizing nuthouse of a culture, and persuades them to stick with Putin's nice, stable oligarchy.

Not that we actually need Russia's "help" to look like nuthouses from time to time - but stirring the pot adds a little helpful emphasis and distraction for the folks at home.

In the words of Largo in Thunderball - "Stop, stop! He's got you shooting at each other!"
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 02:26
  #2629 (permalink)  
 
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Here's what China thinks of it all - (together with a somewhat startling review of English history)................... Will UK isolate itself after Brexit? - Global Times
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 06:56
  #2630 (permalink)  
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The Times:

......As the law currently stands Britain will leave the European Union automatically in 79 days time, at 11pm on March 29. This date was set in law in the Withdrawal Act that was passed by MPs last June. It does not need ratification; it is not dependent upon a deal and it can only be altered by repeal or a superseding act of parliament.......

The difficulty for those MPs opposed to no deal is that, even though they have the numbers, unless they have the backing of the government there is no parliamentary mechanism to prevent it as only the executive can guarantee time for legislation.

As Sir David Natzler, clerk of the House of Commons put it in evidence to MPs: “There is no House procedure that can overcome statute. You have passed the European Union (Withdrawal) Act, and you cannot overturn that by a resolution of either House, or even both Houses. Statute is overturned by statute, because we are a law-based society.”

Are there other avenues for the rebels?

Yes but they are political, rather than legal, considerations.

If MPs by a decisive majority voted in favour of extending Article 50 or in favour of a second referendum it would be hard for the government to blithely ignore and pursue no deal regardless. As Sir David put it: “If there is a majority of members of the House of Commons that voted for it, I think you would be very unwise to say that has no effect. It would have, I assume, a considerable political effect.”

Then there is also the question of the government itself. A clear majority of the cabinet is also opposed to no deal and if it looks like Theresa May’s agreement will never get the support of MPs then the pressure on her to allow parliament to decide the way ahead will become intense.

There may be no clear legal way to prevent a no-deal Brexit — but if the parliamentary political will is there the challenges are unlikely to be insurmountable.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ed-worse-ahead

......As the fraught discussions at cabinet on Tuesday underlined, there are scant few options available if the vote is lost, and none of them look appealing.

May could make another mad dash to Brussels; give MPs the opportunity to vote on a series of alternative Brexit options (which Tory whips believe might focus minds on the lack of a majority for any alternative to their deal); announce that she plans to leave without a deal; or even press the nuclear button and promise a general election.

Whatever she does she will almost certainly face a full-blown vote of no confidence from Jeremy Corbyn within days or even hours of the vote next Tuesday.

Before the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, losing a vote on the finance bill on one day and another less than 24 hours later would have most likely proved fatal to a government’s authority. But opposition parties now need to win a formal vote of no confidence and it is unclear whether either the DUP or Tory rebels hate the deal enough to want to tear down the government.

May cannot now be unseated by Tory MPs, who tried the no confidence gambit before Christmas and failed, and her cabinet is bitterly divided about the way forward.

Some Tory colleagues believe the prime minister’s fabled resilience is such that she could try to keep putting her much maligned deal to MPs, grimly pressing home the fact that, as she repeatedly said on Wednesday, “the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the deal”........




Last edited by ORAC; 10th Jan 2019 at 07:30.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 07:29
  #2631 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
I honestly think they didn't try because in a geopolitical context both results have advantages and disadvantages, and weighing in is too risky based upon any perceived result. Though admittedly with Europe becoming continually weakened I would have thought that they (Russia) if anything would have influenced remain... as leave means a potentially much closer US alliance. Probably I have read too many Stratfor briefings recently though, mea culpa.

In the end though we'll never really know - we truly live in a post-truth world.
The ultimate motivations behind it are arguable since Putin is never going to acknowledge Russian meddling but one could reasonably conclude that good old divide & conquer is as effective today as it's always been. Whatever it is, I have to demur. They definitely played, there can be no question social media bots were deployed in vast numbers in both the referendum & the US election. The evidence for it is undeniable. And Russia has not limited its efforts to just the referendum. As linked below, there is proof they've attempted to foment anti Muslim sentiment here, the conclusion is obvious - sow divisions, weaken the country.

It's also known that Russian bot farms are an organised phenomenon. The last link gives details of the IRA - Internet research agency, a Russian troll factory indicted by Robert Mueller for interference in the US election. These troll farms nearly always output far right wing propaganda, they invariably support Brexit, disparage Clinton, Muslims etc., essentially they reinforce causes of the right. So while one can argue the efficacy of the operation, it's a fact it exists & should be uncomfortable reading for moderate thinkers on the right. Presumably that plays into the routine denials of it one reads on here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...mic-study-says

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8613386.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-brexit-tweets

https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17990...tion-tampering
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 07:57
  #2632 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Danny G;10356476]Believe what you want, I didnt say I dont want to be in the EU so I havnt switched in any direction. I just understand how democracy works, we had a vote I voted remain and I lost so now I will wait until the next General election and vote for a party that has rejoin in its manifesto. Attempting to overturn a democratic vote will mean the rise of extreme parties. Whats going to happen if the vote is overturned? do you think leavers will just accept it or do you think there may be a tiny chance of a backlash. Teresa May gone and a eurosceptic leader of the Tory party puts leaving in their manifesto for the next general election and wins a majority. we may win this battle but we wont win the war. We also get a more right wing Tory Govt that would continue to wreck the country for 5 more years.

A reasonable explanation, although I must admit I find bizarre. I obviously misunderstood your position because I assumed that you meant that you would vote Leave should there be a re run.

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Old 10th Jan 2019, 08:03
  #2633 (permalink)  
 
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According to the shadow justice secretary, a vote of confidence in the government is only days away. Pressed on the BBC news he repeated this along with the new mantra [to be repeated in all mentions of the deal], 'rotten'. Jeremy knows that this will waste more time. Should he put the boot in after next Tuesdays vote and somehow get a majority then the reformed government would have to lose another vote within 14 days to trigger a GE. 78 days left now, 73 after the vote on the deal, 59 after a second confidence vote and should a GE be called then it would be roughly 30 days to exit when it happens.

Should an election happen then Jeremy will try his hardest to make it about anything but Brexit, however it will be a pseudo second referendum with [in the main] the public's votes being aligned with the party that they believe will achieve/stop Brexit. I can't see any result beyond another hung parliament, and the clock will tick on.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 08:50
  #2634 (permalink)  
 
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Were Jezza to succeed in his plan for a GE it's difficult to see what his strategy might be. I cannot possibly imagine that he will stand on an Anti Brexit platform and maintaining his current stance will inevitably involve a haemorrhage of votes to the LD's. Were he to win what could he possibly do in the time available? The EU have said that an extension of Art50 is available only for a referendum not a renegotiation so there isn't enough time to hold the election before March 29 and then have any sort of meaningful negotiation. Personally if it were to happen I think we might well see the law of unintended consequences come into play.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 08:56
  #2635 (permalink)  
 
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In Jeremy's case I believe it is more a matter of intended consequences.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 08:59
  #2636 (permalink)  
 
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Two years to come up with the farce of a plan we have now and then Parliament expects May to pull plan B out of her Arrrr...hat in three days.

Delusional or what.

As for a General Election that has been Corbynn's and the labour parties aim all along, not the good of the Country, nooo that would be too much to ask for. I cannot see it ever being held within the time period left, so what is the point, it will not effect the result of us leaving..
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 09:10
  #2637 (permalink)  
 
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Possibly he has in mind a no deal departure ( which he wants) without the blame that will inevitably go with any dire economic consequences that might ensue. He could just do what the coalition did and blame the last lot. He also has the advantage that if the consequences are not so dire he is in a good position. The only slight flaw in the plan is that the electorate won't go along with it. Six weeks is a long time in politics and I think that we would see Remainer votes stacking up
​​​​​​​Behind the LD's and then potentially 100+ votes between them and the SNP.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 09:12
  #2638 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Two years to come up with the farce of a plan we have now and then Parliament expects May to pull plan B out of her Arrrr...hat in three days.

Delusional or what.
Given TM’s preferred tactic very much seems to be to kick, kick and kick the can down the road, for example by indulging in tactics such as appointing the Chief Minister for sloth, David Davis, as chief negotiator and then more recently by delaying the meaningful vote I have zero sympathy for her, though I agree forcing a plan B in three days won’t change anything.

As for a General Election that has been Corbynn's and the labour parties aim all along, not the good of the Country, nooo that would be too much to ask for. I cannot see it ever being held within the time period left, so what is the point, it will not effect the result of us leaving..
TBH if it wasn’t for the Fixed Term Act I suspect TM might be the one opting for a suitably timed GE .....it certainly would suit some in the Tory party to do so. ..(kicking the can down the road and/or forces a No deal Brexit) .....






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Old 10th Jan 2019, 11:53
  #2639 (permalink)  
 
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So Corbyn’s gone to all the trouble of arranging a press conference to tell us what we already know, that he wants an election. Unfortunately still not a squeak on what he’d do if he won.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 12:00
  #2640 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Two years to come up with the farce of a plan we have now and then Parliament expects May to pull plan B out of her Arrrr...hat in three days.

Delusional or what.

I was thinking exactly the same - how in the hell can anyone expect another agreed plan in 3 days especially when the EU have said they will not negotiate any more. What happens if she doesn't come up with a plan, does she have to step aside and let someone else come up with a plan in 3 days. The whole amendment is ridiculous.
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