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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 5th Jan 2019, 11:56
  #2421 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FlyMD View Post
TBH, I've avoided the Canaries ... in the last few years because of over-crowding on some islands
We've been to several islands over the last few years and not seen anything we'd describe as "over-crowding". Yes you do sometimes need to book accommodation in advance, you can't just show up in a village and expect to find a hotel room (or even a meal (or even an open grocery shop)), but that could just as well be described as "under-provision".

(We do, of course, avoid "resorts" and suchlike, just as we do anywhere else.)
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 11:58
  #2422 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
Quite a few won't go on holiday anyway.
Having seen the airlines' #brexit Ts&Cs we're not booking anything this year.

Sure they promise to give you your fare back if they don't fly, provided they haven't gone bust of course, but that doesn't help you with your pre-paid hotels, car hire, etc.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 11:58
  #2423 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Question: Does a No Deal Brexit cause the UK to immediately stop all payments (£39 billion has been bandied about) to the EU?
Legally, yes. Payments to the EU are made under legal provisions of the 1972 European Communities Act, the 2018 EU (Withdrawal) Act which fixes “exit day” from the EU and the repeal of the 1972 Act, as 11.00 p.m. on 29 March 2019, unless both the EU and UK agree to extend the date.

That does not mean the UK does not have both a moral and self-interest in continuing to make substantial payments to the EU for varying periods covering both items such as pensions and ongoing participation in various projects and agreements - just that the legal basis for the payments will have been repealed, and the treasury cannot just hand over billions to the EU without the legal authority to do so from parliament. How much should and will the UK pay? that is a subject to major debate and contingent on which projects the EU is willing to allow the UK to participate in, set against the payments already agreed to; I have seen figures of a totals between £2-40B spread over up to 40 years.

However, as continuously stated, "no-deal" just means lots of very late mini-deals and agreements, and I would expect many of these to include payments of various sorts, based on various conditions and forecasts, over many individual areas.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 12:05
  #2424 (permalink)  
 
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The fact is that tourist islands in Greece and Spain have had it VERY good for the last few years, owing in particular to the unreliability of places like Egypt, Turkey or even Cyprus. The cost of a holiday flight to either Mykonos, Palma de Mallorca or Las Palmas has risen significantly over the last 10 years (out of Switzerland at least), and the accommodation prices have in some cases followed suit...
Now the effect of this have not always been negative, as there was, particularly in the case of Mallorca, a definite will from the island to keep some of the riff-raff out...

Maybe after brexit you could peg the GBP to the Egyptian currency? I would quite happily trade you Sharm, Hurghada and the lot for the next few years, we'll use the EU tourist places, and as a bonus the Germans will have the satisfaction to finally and definitively won the battle for pool loungers in Ibiza...
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 12:16
  #2425 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
He isn't incorrect



Neither Corybn is going to play a joker
Are there two of them ?
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 12:44
  #2426 (permalink)  
 
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If a few bars in Magaluf are going to lose some British drunks spewing in the street, that doesn't sound like the big hit on the EU that Brexiters have been promising.
We were told that the German car manufacturers had their government over a barrel and the EU would be forced to give us free trade with no free movement. All we had to do was face up to them and they would back down in the end. Well we're still waiting.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 12:46
  #2427 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post

However, as continuously stated, "no-deal" just means lots of very late mini-deals and agreements, and I would expect many of these to include payments of various sorts, based on various conditions and forecasts, over many individual areas.
Continuously stated by whom? John Redwood? Jacob Rees-Fogg? The revelatory element of this is you actually believe this stuff. I'm watching a BBC four documentary on Waco & I'm coming round to the view that leavers are so wilfully ignorant of the world around them to the extent it's difficult to separate Brexit believers form Branch Davidians. An absolute article of faith countered endlessly with well go on then, prove it. Fabulous.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 13:02
  #2428 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
Continuously stated by whom? John Redwood? Jacob Rees-Fogg? The revelatory element of this is you actually believe this stuff. I'm watching a BBC four documentary on Waco & I'm coming round to the view that leavers are so wilfully ignorant of the world around them to the extent it's difficult to separate Brexit believers form Branch Davidians. An absolute article of faith countered endlessly with well go on then, prove it. Fabulous.
This straw clutching by Brexiteers will soon come home to roost. The EU is stronger as a whole than the UK, and can, and will afford to face down the UK.

The really sad thing is that if we do call the EU's bluff and fall out, then the usual suspects in the media will proceed to blame the EU, Juncker, Merkel - in fact everyone bar the real culprits; the politicans and lobbyists that sold a pup to a gullible UK electorate. Whether that washes remains to be seen.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 13:32
  #2429 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe after brexit you could peg the GBP to the Egyptian currency? I would quite happily trade you Sharm, Hurghada and the lot for the next few years, we'll use the EU tourist places, and as a bonus the Germans will have the satisfaction to finally and definitively won the battle for pool loungers in Ibiza...
I doubt that post no deal Brexit the GBP could hold it's own against the Egyptian Pound. Now if it were tied to the Venezuelan Bolivar it might stand more chance.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 16:16
  #2430 (permalink)  
 
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When faced with questions such as how much should we pay then I always try to look from other perspectives, for example what the French and Germans think and do?

We are where we are partly because we’ve thought and behaved as if the EU27 thought and behaved like us, which they haven’t and won’t. They’ve taken advantage of our naivety and we only have ourselves to blame. Thinking like them could change that.

In the case of money, we know what the French would do. As they did on leaving NATO, they’d pay nothing.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 19:48
  #2431 (permalink)  
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Sprogget you continuously twist others words to fit your own point of view, you only make yourself look duplicitous.

The EU has already stated it has started putting agreements in place in case of a no deal exit. It has stated that these are in areas where it is to the advantage of the EU - but areas were payments are concerned are certainly covered.

For details of of the various areas please read the following, pages 52 to 59. Then let me know if you want a rational discussion or merely another excuse to rant about how everyone who disagrees with you must be either a fool or a liar or both.

http://researchbriefings.files.parli...7/CBP-8397.pdf
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 21:57
  #2432 (permalink)  
 
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It's there own personal belief's what's going to happen and what the facts and outcomes will be.

It's really not worth taking personally. You just need to look at the easa intra EU flights statistics to see what's going to happen.

Add in the import export accounts for the top 10 EU trade "deals" with the UK import market in and it out of the deal to see what will happen once it's outside the customs Union.

As an individual you just have to set things up for the best for your family. There will be loads of bitching but it's been over two years that this has been playing for. If people haven't setup for the most likely outcome never mind the other two it's their problem.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 22:00
  #2433 (permalink)  
 
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Good point: what would the French do if they found themselves in an organisation they came to believe rightly or wrongly wasn’t serving their national self-interest? Need we even ask...Au revoir! And they’d pay exactly what they paid towards their pre-agreed NATO commitments :nothing at all!
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 22:07
  #2434 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with not paying is that ot more than likely will cause a complete collapse. The whole point getting out first is your one of one not one of 28.
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 03:14
  #2435 (permalink)  
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" Trains, and boats and planes "..comes to mind ......although thus far, the last one doesn't seem to have been blessed with his magical touch.......yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...roller-cartoon

However, when in doubt, as in the vote may not entirely go as favourably as wished for, possibly because the subject is already a can of worms the obvious strategy is ?....delay. So here's Amber faithfully following her ( in name only ) leaders example.

Now, it's possibly the case that we don't all have a Phd in Maths, but, there does seem to be a slight difference between 3.2million and, erm, a mere 10000. Of course, by the time UC is finally in place, Treeza and Amber will long have been consigned to history ...so blaming Labour will be the default excuse.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46772901

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 6th Jan 2019 at 07:41.
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 07:55
  #2436 (permalink)  
 
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A poll just published shows that 75% of Labour supporters say that the party should not enable May's deal or any other form of Leave. It's a big (25k) sample so I don't think the result can be questioned. Support for May's deal is at 22% amongst the electorate as a whole rising to 28% amongst Leave supporters. Labour supporters also say that they will "punish" the party should they give support to the governments efforts to leave the EU.

Of course whether Corbyn is pig headed enough to ignore this is quite another matter, but I believe that he needs to bear in mind the nature of the punishment. It is almost certainly one that will deny him power if and when he does get his GE. The other poll finding was that the split between Remain and Leave is now 54/46.
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 08:26
  #2437 (permalink)  
 
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The other poll finding was that the split between Remain and Leave is now 54/46.
The Populus poll (4,700) taken on the 22nd June 2016 gave a split between Remain and Leave as 55/45.
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 08:49
  #2438 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Of course whether Corbyn is pig headed enough to ignore this is quite another matter
He's got away with it so far, including getting away with leading his party to an electoral catastrophe (how else could you describe losing in 2017 to the worst government in history). Any other leader would have had to resign at that point. So there's no need for him to change, so he won't.
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 09:04
  #2439 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
The Populus poll (4,700) taken on the 22nd June 2016 gave a split between Remain and Leave as 55/45.
If you look at the whole run of polls you will see that the Populous one was an outlier. Almost all the others were within the normally accepted range of + or - 3% . There is another factor to consider and that is the generally accepted "Reluctant Tory" effect. Leave supporters were Tory plus and as such probably far more likely to refuse to answer. This poll was of 25,000 people whilst the others were far smaller samples. I can see why Leave fear a rerun.
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 09:07
  #2440 (permalink)  
 
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That's the saddest aspect of all. We're going to crash out, and we will, but against the present wishes of the people.
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